Seasonality of Seasonality of commercially important commercially important pelagic fishes in the pelagic fishes in the Philippines: overfishing Philippines: overfishing or climate change?or climate change?

Mudjekeewis D. Santos, Ph.D.Scientist I and OIC, Marine Fisheries Research DivisionNational Fisheries Research and Development InstituteMetro Manila, Philippines

International Workshop on Climate and Oceanic Fisheries, October 3-5 2011, Cook Islands

Outline

• Philippines and the issue of climate change

• Philippine fisheries and marine ecosystem profiles

• Data source: National Stock Assessment Program

• Pelagic species composition and seasonality

• Summary and conclusion

Climate change policy in the Philippines

11

Philippine Republic Act 9729:  “Climate Change Act of 2009”• Climate Change Commission

• Framework and strategies inplace 

• Adaptation is priority

CLIMATE CHANGE• Increasing temperature• Changing  rainfall pattern• Sea  level rise• Extreme climate events

VISIONA climate  resilient Philippines with healthy, 

safe, prosperous and self‐reliant communities, and thriving and productive 

ecosystems 

SOCIETY ENVIRONMENT

ECONOMY

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT      Goal: To build the adaptive capacity of communities and   increase the resilience of natural ecosystems to climate change   and  optimize mitigation opportunities towards sustainable development  

IMPACTS AND VULNERABILITY

• Ecosystems (River basin, coastal    and marine, biodiversity)• Food security • Water resources• Human health • Infrastructure• Energy • Human society 

CLIMATE PROCESS DRIVERS• Energy• Transport • Land Use Change & Forestry• Agriculture• Waste

ADAPTATION• Enhance Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment • Integrated Ecosystem –based Management • Climate Responsive Agriculture• Water Governance and Management • Climate Responsive Health Sector• Disaster Risk Reduction and Management

MITIGATION • Energy efficiency and conservation• Sustainable  infrastructure• Renewable energy• Environmentally  sustainable  transport• National REDD+  Strategy• Waste Management 

Capacity Development 

Knowledge Management 

IEC  Advocacy 

Gender  Mainstreaming 

Research and Development Technology Transfer  

Multi‐stakeholders Partnership   

Financing   Valuation    Policy, Planning and Mainstreaming

CROSS‐CUTTING STRATEGIES MEANS OF IMPLEMENTATION

National Framework Strategy  on Climate Change  

CO2Emissions per Capita (tons)

CO2Emissions per Capita (tons)

Philippine Fisheries and Climate Change

• Consistently one of the top 10 countries predicted to be adversely affected by CC

• About 70% lives in coastalareas

• About 70% of protein requirement comes from fish

• Low levels of socio-economiccapacities in many of thesecoastal communities

Some Philippine Climate Change-Related Data

Yanagi and Akaki 1994David, 2010

Sea surface level, 1950 - 1990

Fish Production, 1980‐2009

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

Year

in m

etric t

on

Philippine Fisheries Profile66thth among the top fish producing among the top fish producing countries in the worldcountries in the world

3.12% of the total world 3.12% of the total world catch/harvest of fish, catch/harvest of fish, crustaceans, mollusks, and crustaceans, mollusks, and aquatic plantsaquatic plants

99thth in the world in terms of in the world in terms of aquaculture productionaquaculture production

1.4% of total global aquaculture 1.4% of total global aquaculture production of fish, crustaceans production of fish, crustaceans and mollusksand mollusks

33rdrd largest producer of seaweedslargest producer of seaweeds 10.6% of the total world 10.6% of the total world

seaweeds productionseaweeds production

Fisheries is critical to the country

Aquaculture

Philippines epicenter of marine biodiversityin the world

1736-1693 (top 2.5%)1692-1650 (5-2.5%)1649-1606 (7.5-5%)1563-1605 (10-7.5%)

Carpenter & Springer, 2004 Carpenter & Springer, 2004 (2,983 maps, seaweeds to mammals)(2,983 maps, seaweeds to mammals)

Allen, 2007 Allen, 2007 (4,000 Indo(4,000 Indo‐‐Pacific reef fishes)Pacific reef fishes)

Also hottest of the hotspots for conservation !

Philippines has many biogeographic regions

Carpenter et al., 2010 (CTCarpenter et al., 2010 (CT‐‐PIRE Project) using connectivity of different marine organismsPIRE Project) using connectivity of different marine organisms

PhilippinesVietnam

Indonesia

Malaysia

Philippines has many biogeographic regions

Santos MD, 2011 (NFRDI) Santos MD, 2011 (NFRDI) 

?

Sardinella lemuru Sardinella gibbosa

Interpreting Sardinella Stock Structure in the Philippinesusing genetic data

Thomas R., Wilette D., and Santos MD. 2011

One stock Different stocks, species

National Stock Assessment Program (NSAP)

• To create a standardized, specific and time‐series information on marine capture fisheries around the country for management purposes

• To develop and institutionalize the capability of the 16 regional offices in fishery stock assessment

• Included in Philippine GAA

(since 1996)

Orientation and Training

National Stock Assessment Program (NSAP)(Landed Catch and Effort Monitoring by FAO)

Implementation

Reporting

•• Catch estimatesCatch estimates

•• Gear inventories Gear inventories 

•• Catch per unit effort (CPUE)Catch per unit effort (CPUE)

•• Species composition and seasonalitySpecies composition and seasonality

•• Length frequencies, Population Length frequencies, Population parametersparameters

•• Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY),   Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY),   Potential Yield (PY), ExploitationPotential Yield (PY), ExploitationRatios etc.Ratios etc.

National Stock Assessment Program (NSAP)(Database)

Things to remember

• Multi‐species, multi‐gear fishery

• Different biogeographic regions and stocks

• Very limited specific historical data on fisheries

• Limited historical meteorological data

• Major ENSO events in 1997‐1998 and 2009‐2010

Oceanic Tunas (Family Scombridae)Oceanic Tunas (Family Scombridae)

= 213,442 MT

Region 2

Region 1

Region 5

Region4A

Region 3

Region 6

Region 7

Region 4B

Region 8

Region 9

Region 10

Region 11

Region 12

CARAGA

ARMM

NCR

1

2

2

Source: WCPFC Yearbook 2009; 2010 data preliminary -WCPFC-SC7-2011/ST IP-1

SKIPJACK62%

YELLOWFIN33%

BIGEYE5%

Percentage (%) Catch in Philippine Waters

Sardines (Family Clupeidae) Sardines (Family Clupeidae)

= 11,225.74MT

Region 2

Region 1

Region 5

Region4A

Region 3

Region 6

Region 7Region 4B

Region 8

Region 9

Region 10

Region 11

Region 12

CARAGA

ARMM

NCR

Batanes Waters

TayabasBay

Cagayan   Waters

Visayan Sea

LagonoyGulf

Leyte Gulf

Honda Bay

ZambalesCoast

HinatuanPassage

Davao Gulf

Iligan Bay

MacajarBayCamiguin

Waters

Cuyo East   Pass

CamotesSea

Illana Bay

Moro Gulf

Sulu Sea

* Fishing Ground in green color, with less than 1% share

Distribution of Sardines (Sardinella & Amblygaster spp.) in NSAP monitored fishing grounds of the Philippines, 2004-2007

Sorsogon Bay

     Sardine Production in NSAP monitored fishing grounds, 2004‐2007, kg.

Region Fishing Ground SARDINES %6 & 7 Visayan Sea 32,489,089.25      41.98       10 Macajalar Bay 18,042,796.84    23.31     10 Iligan Bay 10,671,547.69      13.79       4A Tayabas Bay 9,945,682.79         12.85       2 Cagayan Waters 1,906,065.19         2.46         10 Camiguin Waters 1,550,314.06       2.00       5 Sorsogon Bay 778,346.35            1.01         11 Davao Gulf 759,147.10            0.98         4B Honda Bay 568,378.51            0.73         

ARMM Illana Bay 171,073.77            0.22         7 Camotes Sea 151,223.73            0.20         

CARAGA Hinatuan Passage 133,000.39          0.17       8 Leyte Gulf 77,739.71               0.10         5 Lagonoy Gulf 38,610.01               0.05         

6 Cuyo East Pass (Antique) 27,440.00             0.04       3 Zambales Coast 3,529.50                 0.00         12 Moro Gulf 811.91                     0.00         

ARMM Sulu Sea 86,132.59               0.11         Total 77,400,929.39      100.00     

1

2

3

Roundscads (Family Carangidae) Roundscads (Family Carangidae)

   Roundscad Production in NSAP monitored fishing grounds, 2004‐2007, kg.

Region Fishing Ground Kg %10 Iligan Bay 37,003,473.41       33.61          10 Macajalar Bay 25,176,719.11     22.87        2 Batanes Waters 15,789,039.93       14.34          11 Davao Gulf 9,031,787.27          8.20            3 Zambales Coast 7,368,798.43          6.69            2 Cagayan Waters 4,359,452.16          3.96            

6 & 7 Visayan Sea 3,995,017.85          3.63            7 Camotes Sea 2,860,672.41          2.60            4A Tayabas Bay 1,976,354.38          1.80            12 Moro Gulf 763,003.50             0.69            10 Camiguin Waters 749,384.30           0.68          5 Lagonoy Gulf 236,824.17             0.22            

6 Cuyo East Pass (Antique) 212,142.75           0.19          CARAGA Hinatuan Passage 184,678.38           0.17          

4B Honda Bay 110,129.86             0.10            8 Leyte Gulf 74,998.45                0.07            

12 & ARMM Illana Bay 33,025.02                0.03            ARMM Sulu Sea 156,632.60           0.14          

Total 110,082,133.99     100.00        

= 11,225.74MT

Region 2

Region 1

Region 5

Region4A

Region 3

Region 6

Region 7Region 4B

Region 8

Region 9

Region 10

Region 11

Region 12

CARAGA

ARMM

NCR

Batanes Waters

TayabasBay

Cagayan   Waters

Visayan Sea

LagonoyGulf

Leyte Gulf

Honda Bay

ZambalesCoast

HinatuanPassage

Davao Gulf

Iligan Bay

MacajarBayCamiguin

Waters

Cuyo East   Pass

CamotesSea

Illana Bay

Moro Gulf

Sulu Sea

* Fishing Ground in green color, with less than 1% share

Distribution of Roundscads (Decapterus spp.) in NSAP monitored fishing grounds of the Philippines, 2004-2007

1

2

3

Mackerels (Family Scombridae) Mackerels (Family Scombridae)

= 11,225.74MT

Region 2

Region 1

Region 5

Region4A

Region 3

Region 6

Region 7Region 4B

Region 8

Region 9

Region 10

Region 11

Region 12

CARAGA

ARMM

NCR

TayabasBay

Cagayan   Waters

Visayan Sea

LagonoyGulf

Leyte Gulf

Honda Bay

ZambalesCoast

HinatuanPassage

Davao Gulf

Iligan Bay

MacajarBayCamiguin

Waters

Sorsogon Bay

Cuyo East   Pass

CamotesSea

Illana Bay

Moro Gulf

Sulu Sea

* Fishing Ground in green color, with less than 1% share

Distribution of Mackerels (Rastrelliger spp.) in NSAP monitored fishing grounds of the Philippines, 2004-2007

   Mackerel Production in NSAP monitored fishing grounds, 2004‐2007, kg.

Region Fishing Ground Kg %6 & 7 Visayan Sea 11,225,737.94          59.52            4A Tayabas Bay 2,504,416.86            13.28            11 Davao Gulf 1,738,039.94            9.21              2 Cagayan Waters 1,220,974.40            6.47              10 Iligan Bay 592,432.28                3.14              5 Lagonoy Gulf 235,921.64                1.25              

CARAGA Hinatuan Passage 231,592.74              1.23            4B Honda Bay 227,619.57                1.21              10 Macajalar Bay 196,252.05              1.04            7 Camotes Sea 159,765.52                0.85              10 Camiguin Waters 128,992.82              0.68            8 Leyte Gulf 127,986.66                0.68              3 Zambales Coast 55,902.14                  0.30              12 Moro Gulf 39,370.96                  0.21              

 ARMM Illana Bay 3,953.33                    0.02              5 Sorsogon Bay 2,929.61                    0.02              6 Cuyo East Pass (Antique) 2,771.00                  0.01            

ARMM Sulu Sea 166,912.18                0.88              Total 18,861,571.62          100.00         

1

2

3

Anchovies (Family Engraulidae) Anchovies (Family Engraulidae)

    Anchovy Production in NSAP monitored fishing grounds, 2004‐2007

Region Fishing Ground Kg %2 Batanes Waters 10,728,381.12     55.30         4A Tayabas Bay 3,363,787.00       17.34         2 Cagayan Waters 1,700,162.58       8.76           6 Visayan Sea 1,590,950.65       8.20           5 Lagonoy Gulf 900,664.09           4.64           8 Leyte Gulf 440,349.17           2.27           4B Honda Bay 218,970.87           1.13           3 Zambales Coast 109,488.63           0.56           

CARAGA Hinatuan Passage 96,668.86           0.50         11 Davao Gulf 67,468.44             0.35           10 Iligan Bay 63,900.76             0.33           10 Macajalar Bay 61,086.68           0.31         10 Camiguin Waters 31,215.79           0.16         5 Sorsogon Bay 23,130.52             0.12           6 Cuyo East Pass (Antique) 3,657.50             0.02         

Total 19,399,882.66     100.00      

= 10,728.38MT

Region 2

Region 1

Region 5

Region4A

Region 3

Region 6

Region 7

Region 4B

Region 8

Region 9

Region 10

Region 11

Region 12

CARAGA

ARMM

NCR

Batanes Waters

TayabasBay

Cagayan   Waters

Visayan Sea

LagonoyGulf

Leyte Gulf

Honda Bay

ZambalesCoast

HinatuanPassage

Davao Gulf

Iligan Bay

MacajarBayCamiguin

Waters

Sorsogon Bay

Cuyo East   Pass

Illana Bay

* Fishing Ground in green color, with less than 1% share

Distribution of Anchovies (Stolephorus & Encrasicholina spp.) in NSAP monitored fishing grounds of the Philippines, 2004-2007

1

2

3

Pasaleng Bay, Region 1(2000 - 2009)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Selar crumenopthalmus

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Katsuwonuspelamis

Bigeye scad

Skipjack

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Yie

ld (‘

000

MT)

Decapterus macrosoma

Selar crumenopthalmus

Bangui Bay, Region 1(2000 - 2009)

Bigeye scadRoundscad

0.00

5000.00

10000.00

15000.00

20000.00

25000.00

30000.00

Apr-99 Jul-9

9Oct-

99Jan-

00A pr-

00 Jul-00

Oct-00

Jan-01

A pr-01 Jul-0

1Oct-

01Jan-

02A pr-

02 Jul-02

Oct-02

Jan-03

A pr-03 Jul-0

3Oct-

03Jan-

04A pr-

04 Jul-04

Oct-04

Jan-05

A pr-05 Jul-0

5Oct-

05Jan-

06A pr-

06 Jul-06

Oct-06

Jan-07

A pr-07 Jul-0

7Oct-

07Jan-

08

monitore

d product

ion (kg)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Apr-99 Jul-9

9Oct-

99Jan-

00A pr-

00 Jul-00

Oct-00

Jan-01

A pr-01 Jul-0

1Oct-

01Jan-

02A pr-

02 Jul-02

Oct-02

Jan-03

A pr-03 Jul-0

3Oct-

03Jan-

04A pr-

04 Jul-04

Oct-04

Jan-05

A pr-05 Jul-0

5Oct-

05Jan-

06A pr-

06 Jul-06

Oct-06

Jan-07

A pr-07 Jul-0

7Oct-

07Jan-

08

monitore

d product

ion (kg)

Babuyan Channel, Region II(1999-2008)

Big-eyed scad

Dolphin fish

Zambales Coast, Region III(2003-2007)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Catch (M

T)

Year

SkipjackYellowfin

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Catch (

mt)

Year

Roundscad

F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Year

FM

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Catc

h(m

t)

JOM

A

SkipjackAnchovies

Lagonoy Gulf, Region V(1998-2007)

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

J

J

JA J

A SA

J

0

5

10

15

20

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Catch(m

t)

J

JJ

J

J

MJ

J

A

SO

SO

A

AS

Bigeyed scadRoundscad

Visayan Sea, Regions V, VI, VII(2003-2007)

‐

50 

100 

150 

200 

250 

300 

350 

400 

450 

J F MAM J J A S O N D J F MAM J J A S O N D J F MAM J J A S O N D J F MAM J J A S O N D J F MAM J J A S O N D

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Catch

 (MT)

Rastrelliger kanagurta

Sardinella fimbriata

Mackerel

Sardine

Camotes Sea, Regions VII(1998-2007)

J FMAMJ J A SOND J FMAMJ J A SOND J F MAMJ J A SOND J F MAMJ J A SOND J F MAMJ J A SOND

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

J FMAM J J A SO N D J FMAM J J A SO N D J FMA M J J A SO ND J FMA M J J A SO ND J FMA M J J A SO ND

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Catc

h (k

g)

Decapterus macrosoma Decapterus kurroides

Roundscads

Leyte Gulf, Regions VIII(1998 - 2009)

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N

Cat

ch(m

t)

Gazza minuta Rastrelliger kanagurta

Slipmouth Bigeye scad

South Sulu Sea, Regions IX(2005 - 2010)

-

500.00

1,000.00

1,500.00

2,000.00

2,500.00

3,000.00

3,500.00

4,000.00

4,500.00

J F M A M J J A S ON D J F MA M J J A S ON D J F M A M J J A S ON D J F MA M J J A S ON D J F M A M J J A S ON D J F M A M J J A S ON D

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Sardinella lemuruSardinella gibbosa

Sardines

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

J MM J S N J MM J S N J MM J S N J MM J S N J MM J S N J MM J S N J MM J S N J MM J S N J MM J S N J MM J S N J MM J S N J MM J S N J MM J S N

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Catch (

MT)

Oxyporhamphus micropterus

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Catch (

MT)

Katsuwons pelamis

Camiguin Waters, Regions X(1998 - 2010)

Skipjack

Anchovy

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Selar crumenophthalmus

Catc

h (m

t.)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Auxis rochei

Catch (m

t.)Davao Gulf, Regions XI(1998 - 2008)

Bigeyed scad

Bullet tuna

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Catch MT

S. crumenopthalmus R kanagurta

Hinatuan Passage, CARAGA Region(1998 - 2007)

Bigeye scad Mackerel

Fish seasonality map

change

no change

Summary

• Diversity and variability abounds in the Philippines

• Different areas have different dominant speciescomposition

• Different areas show different species seasonalitypatterns

• Suggest a play of fishing or climate or both fishingand climate, add analysis and data

Message: It’s complicated! Localized management!

Acknowledgement

Noel C. Barut, Deputy Director, NFRDI

NSAP Regional Project Leaders and staff, Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources

Vertebrate Section, Marine Fisheries Research Division, National Fisheries Research and Development Institute

Demian Willete, CTI-PIRE Project

Fisherfolks and fishing companies

www.nfrdi.da.gov.ph