Sea Surface Temperature Changes& Biogeographic Ranges ofCommercial Marine Species

Canadian Climate Change Impacts & Adaptation Program Project A515

& WWF

Gail L. Chmura1, Lou Van Guelpen2, Gerhard W. Pohle2, Sarah Vereault1, and Elizabeth Flanary1

1 McGill University & Global Environment and Climate Change Centre2 Huntsman Marine Science Centre / Atlantic Reference Centre

Northeast US Continental Shelf

Newfoundland – Labrador Shelf

Scotian Shelf

www.geog.mcgill.ca/climatechange/www.wwf.ca

February August

For each species the “thermal niche” or “bioclimate envelope” was determined from its geographical distribution (water depths & range in latitude) with respect to satellite-derived (AVHRR) data on sea surface temperatures.

We determined the winter minimum and summer maximum.

We determined future temperatures by adding the change image to this one.

Plotted from temperatures reported in the literature.

Plotted from temperatures derived from distribution data.

Laminaria digitata – reported thermal niche (or range) is -2 to 22°C

Scenarios of Forcing Factors Used – from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

B2forecasts low population growth

and more concern for the environment

A2forecasts high population growth

and less concern for the environmentgreater cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases

(& sulphate aerosols)

WWW.IPCC.ch

2 periods used:

1960-1999 = baseline

2070-2099 = 4°C avg global warming

Plus: 2030-2059 = 2°C avg global warming - see website

New 2005

We used output from global circulation / global climate models – actually Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs)

AOGCMs vary in their number of layers and algorithms for the processes and transfers among the layers.

Hadley Centre

Using geospatial statistics we downscaled the coarse output of each AOGCM

AOGCMs vary in their spatial resolution.

GFDL

(US Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)

Spatial ResolutionSpatial Resolutionof Models (°lat & long)of Models (°lat & long)

CCCmaCCCma 3.75 x 3.753.75 x 3.75

CCSR/NIESCCSR/NIES 5.6 x 5.65.6 x 5.6

CSIROCSIRO 3.2 x 5.63.2 x 5.6

GFDLGFDL 2.25 x 3.752.25 x 3.75

avg Feb SST (or Aug) over the

period 2070-2099

change in SSTs for that month (at the center of each pixel)

avg Feb SST (or Aug) over the

baseline period 1960-1999

- =

z(u0 )z(u i )d ij

p

i1

n

d ij p

i1

n

change in SSTs

“downscaled”

GFDL grid in vector format.GFDL changefield for February

A2

B2

Feb

ruary

CCCma CSIROCCSR GFDL

A2

B2

Augu

st

Greater differences among models than between scenarios.

change in temp.

Change = 2099 minus the baseline:

A2

B2

Febru

ary

CCCma CSIROCCSR GFDL

A2

B2

Augu

st

+February AVHRR SST

GFDL prediction for Feb SST 2079-2099.

interpolated (downscaled)

change in SSTs

GFDL changefield for Feb

=

real-time satellite data,

averaged, & 9 km

resolution

future sea surface

temperatures