Sea Level Rise & Polar Ice Sheets › system › files › Session 5_Patrick_Heim… · Sea level...
Transcript of Sea Level Rise & Polar Ice Sheets › system › files › Session 5_Patrick_Heim… · Sea level...
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Patrick HeimbachOden Institute for Computational Engineering and SciencesJackson School of GeosciencesInstitute for Geophysics
Sea Level Rise
& Polar Ice Sheets
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Sea level and polar ice sheets:
Antarctica
Satellite remote sensing during 2000’s reveals
• increased flow speed
• increased mass loss
• increased ice shelf thinning
Paolo et al. (2015)
in West Antarctica
Rignot et al., PNAS (2019)
SMBdischarge
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Sea level and polar ice sheets:
Greenland
Bevis et al., PNAS (2019)
Mass change from satellite
gravimetry
(GRACE)
2003 – 2014
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Sea level and polar ice sheets:
Sea level rise potential – some numbers
• Greenland: ~ 7 m
• East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS): ~ 53 m (~19 m marine-based)
• West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS): ~ 3 to 5 m
• Glaciers and Ice Caps (GIC): ~ 0.5 m
IPCC reports:
– 1990: no mention of ice sheet dynamics (time scales thought too long )
– 1995: WAIS collapse mentioned as high risk / low probability event
– 2001: feedback emphasizing importance of ice dynamics all but ignored
– 2007: “dramatic” ice dynamics identified as main uncertainty and limitation
for sea-level prediction
– 2013: “Although projections of outflow are at a fairly early stage, literature now exists to make an assessment”
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Chen et al., Nature Clim. Change (2017)
Partition of Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) trendduring the era of satellite altimetry
steric
glaciers
Antarctica
Greenland
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Sea level and polar ice sheets: some history in 30 seconds
First traverse of West Antarctica during IGY 1957
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Sea level and polar ice sheets:
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse?
“Glaciology’s grand
unsolved
problem”
“Antarctica’s
weak underbelly”
Wilson et al., Nature (2018)
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Sea level and polar ice sheets:
Ice sheet-ocean interactions in Greenland & Antarctica
• Warm subsurface water found at the grounding lines of both ice sheets
• Thermodynamic forcing elicits dynamic response Joughin et al., Science (2012)
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Sea level and polar ice sheets:
Ice sheet-ocean interactions in Greenland & Antarctica
• Warm subsurface water found at the grounding lines of both ice sheets
• Thermodynamic forcing elicits dynamic response Joughin et al., Science (2012)
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Sea level and polar ice sheets:
Weddell Sea: Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf
Access to Recovery Subglacial Basin
• Twenty-first-century warming of Filchner-Ronne ice-shelf cavity by a redirected coastal current
• Simulated evolution of near-bottom temperatures in the Weddell Sea suggests intrusion of warmer waters in mid-21st century.
• How realistic/likely?
Hellmer et al. (2012); Golledge et al. (2017)
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Sea level and polar ice sheets:
Weddell Sea: Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf
Access to Recovery Subglacial Basin
• Twenty-first-century warming of Filchner-Ronne ice-shelf cavity by a redirected coastal current
• Simulated evolution of near-bottom temperatures in the Weddell Sea suggests intrusion of warmer waters in mid-21st century.
• How realistic/likely?
Hellmer et al. (2012); Golledge et al. (2017)
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Sea level and polar ice sheets:
Amundsen Sea Embayment
Access to Byrd Subglacial Basin
• 3 to 5 m sea level rise potential
• Thwaites, Pine Island, Getz, …
• Simulated retreat for Thwaites:
Scamboset al. (2017)
Joughin et al.Science (2014)
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Sea level and polar ice sheets:
Amundsen Sea Embayment
Access to Byrd Subglacial Basin
• 3 to 5 m sea level rise potential
• Thwaites, Pine Island, Getz, …
• Simulated retreat for Thwaites:
Scamboset al. (2017)
Joughin et al.Science (2014)
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Sea level and polar ice sheets:
How much – how fast?
Ice sheet dynamics
& physics – major unkowns:
1. Marine ice sheet instability (MISI)
2. Marine Ice cliff instability (MICI)
3. Meltwater feedback
4. Decadal climate variability, circulation changes, forced response
5. Amplification of flood frequencies – extreme value statistics
Scambos et al. (2018)
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Sea level and polar ice sheets:
Marine Ice Sheet Instability
Weertman (1974), Schoof (2007)
• steady state condition between discharge q at grounding line and surface mass balance a
• 2 stable, 1 unstable steady states
• instability dictated by reversed bed slope
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Sea level and polar ice sheets:
Marine Ice Cliff Instability
DeConto & Pollard (2016)
• A newly proposed, plausible mechanism for accelerated ice sheet mass loss due to surface warming
• But remains heavily parameterized in current simulations
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Sea level and polar ice sheets:
Marine Ice Cliff Instability
DeConto & Pollard (2016)
Large uncertainties in:
• model resolution & initial conditions,
• simplified hybrid ice dynamics,
• parameterized
– sub-ice melt & calving,
– structural ice-margin failure,
• ancient sea-level estimates used
in Large Ensemble analysis,
“The rates of ice loss simulated should
not be viewed as actual predictions, but
rather as possible envelopes of behavior”
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Sea level and polar ice sheets:
Marine Ice Cliff Instability – is it likely?
Edwards et al., Nature (2019)
with MICI without MICI
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Putting it all together:
Probabilistic projections & compounding effects
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From global to local: The concept of compounding effects
• Simultaneous or sequential occurrence of an extreme or non-extreme event add (or amplify) to lead to extreme event or impact
• US flood hazard assessment has been based on univariate extreme event analysis (one driver at a time)
• Coastal flooding risk due to
– “background” sea level rise
– storm & tidal surge (with or without wind waves)
– river runoff (including intermittent intense precipitation)
– vertical land motion
Buchanan et al., Env. Res. Lett (2017); Moftakhari et al., PNAS (2017); Storlazzi et al., Sci. Adv. (2018)
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High tide flooding (USGCRP, 2017)
a.k.a. nuisance flooding
a.k.a. sunny day flooding
Projected annual frequencies of high tide flooding in response to scenarios of global sea level rise
Scenarios are based on the U.S. Federal Interagency Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flood Hazard Task Force
N.B.: does not include
• wind wave & swell effects
• storm surges/cyclones
1 m1.5 m2 m2.5 m
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From global to local:Amplification of flood frequencies with sea level rise
amplification factor (AF):
• measures change in expected frequency of a historic annual chance flood with SLR;
• a function of
– storm/tidal surge
changes
– sea level rise
emerging flood regime:
• relationship between
flood height and
flood frequency
changes under SLR
Buchanan et al., Env. Res. Lett. (2017)
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From global to local:Local assessments
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Conclusions
• Robust GMSL rise, with acceleration in some components detectable
• Regional signal may outpace global by up to factor 5
• Regional decadal signals still dominated by natural climate variability
• Polar ice sheets, in particular Antarctica carry large wildcard
– new instability mechanisms amplify potential dynamic mass loss
– uncertainties and lack of understanding remain significant!
• Compounding effects that yield nonlinear amplification factors between sea level rise and coastal flooding frequencies
• Probabilistic projections have come a long way, but it is important to understand what they account for, and what’s still missing
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The End
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Partition of Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) trend
Some compilations
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Partition of Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) trend
WCRP, Earth Syst. Sci. Data (2018)
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Partition of Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) trend
Nerem et al., PNAS (2018)
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What sea level?
From global sea level to coastal flooding
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Relative Sea Level & Coastal Flooding (1/3)
Regional sea level change
– steric changes
– barystatic (mass) changes
due to water input from
• land ice
• river runoff
• global hydrological cycle
– static equilibrium gravitational fingerprints of present-day land ice loss
– glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) due to post-glacial rebound (PGR)
– coupled atmosphere-ocean circulation variability
thermosteric sea level trend 1993-2015
Meyssignac et al. (2017)
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Relative Sea Level & Coastal Flooding (2/3)
Ezer & Atkinson (2014)
Storm surges/tides
– atmospheric surges (barotropic
response to atmospheric IB)
– (astronomical) tidal surges
– wind waves & swell:
wave set-up & swash
Drivers
– cyclone activity, frequency,
intensification
– local sea level pressure extremes
– atmospheric modes of variability
– coastal erosion / morphology
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Relative Sea Level & Coastal Flooding (3/3)
Vertical land motion and land loss
• land subsidence from
– groundwater withdrawal
– soil compaction
– variations in sedimentation rates
• glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) due
to rebound of the Earth’s lithosphere
and geoid changes following ice sheet mass drainage into the ocean
• wetland submergenceSweet et al., NOAA (2017)
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Greenland
The role of atmosphere/ocean forcing
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The role of climatic forcing:Jakobshavn Isbrae speedup
Joughin et al., The Cryosphere (2014)
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The role of climatic forcing:Jakobshavn Isbrae slowdown
Khazendar et al., Nature Geo. (2019)
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Greenland acceleration & deceleration
Bevis et al., PNAS (2019)
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Greenland acceleration & deceleration
Bevis et al., PNAS (2019)
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Sea level fingerprints
The role of gravitationally self-consistent
sea level and solid Earth deformation
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Sea level and polar ice sheets:
Gravitational fingerprints
Farrell & Clark (1976)Clark & Lingle (1977)Conrad & Hager (1997)Mitrovica et al. (2001)
Normalized sea level fingerprints of West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) collapse
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Sea level and polar ice sheets:
Gravitational fingerprints
Normalized sea level change with
respect to eustatic sea level
> 1: sea level rise large than eustatic
> 0: sea level rise (but lower than eustatic)
= 0: no change
< 0: sea level drop
Impact of uncertainty due to underlying
elastic vs. viscoelastic solid Earth model
min: -17.5
max: 1.37
min: -9.4
max: 1.26
Hay et al. (2017)
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Sea level and polar ice sheets:
Gravitational fingerprints
Normalized sea level change with
respect to eustatic sea level
> 1: sea level rise large than eustatic
> 0: sea level rise (but lower than eustatic)
= 0: no change
< 0: sea level drop
Gomez et al. (2015)
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Probabilistic projections of GMSL rise
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Sweet et al., NOAA (2017)
Probabilistic projections of GMSL rise
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Probabilistic projections of GMSL rise
Kopp et al. (2014)
Prior to MICI
finding, and
not including
some other
aspects.
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Probabilistic projections of GMSL rise
Horton et al. (2018)
A compilation of
probabilistic
projections under
different scenarios
(RCP 2.6, 4.5, 8.5)
and GMST
stabilization
pathways
(Stab 1.5, 2.0)
5 – 95 percentiles
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Probabilistic projections of RSL rise
USGCRP (2017)
a) Six US interagency GMSL scenarios, the very likely ranges in 2100 for different RCPs (colored boxes), and lines augmenting the very likely ranges by the difference between the median Antarctic contribution of Kopp et al. (2014) and the various median Antarctic projections with MICI.
b) Relative sea level (RSL) rise in 2100 projected for the Interagency Intermediate Scenario (1-meter GMSL rise by 2100)
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High tide flooding (Sweet et al., 2018)
a.k.a. nuisance flooding
a.k.a. sunny day flooding
Projected annual frequencies of high tide flooding in response to scenarios of global sea level rise
Scenarios are based on the U.S. Federal Interagency Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flood Hazard Task Force
N.B.: does not include
• wind wave & swell effects
• storm surges/cyclones
1 m1.5 m2 m2.5 m