CircleBuilder presentation at the NY Venture Summit June 17, 2009
SDVG's Venture Summit 2012 - McNamee Presentation
-
Upload
san-diego-venture-group -
Category
Technology
-
view
3.654 -
download
0
description
Transcript of SDVG's Venture Summit 2012 - McNamee Presentation
Presenta(on to SDVG Venture Summit Roger McNamee Eleva(on Partners
Ten Hypotheses for Tech Inves1ng
Investors and entrepreneurs risk missing a huge business opportunity because they are using the wrong vocabulary
Hypothesis #1
Internet
World Wide Web – HTML 4
1998-‐2006: Internet + Web
Internet
World Wide Web
HTML 4
App Model
Carriers + WiFi
2007-‐Present: Two Separate Markets
5/4/12 ”How to Revive the Web" by Roger McNamee 5
World Wide Web
HTML 4
App Model
Internet Carriers + WiFi
2007-‐Present: Hypernet + Hyperweb
5/4/2012 ”How to Revive the Web" by Roger McNamee 6
ßHyperwebà
ßHypernetà
Businesses are adop(ng consumer technology because it is cheaper to buy, cheaper to support, and works beOer.
Hypothesis #2
Web = Only Half of Addressable Market
Hypernet
HTML 4 Windows/IE Mac/Safari
Search: Google
App Model + Carriers
Units/$ ===>
App Model iOS
Android Search: Apps
5/4/12 ”How to Revive the Web" by Roger McNamee 8
“Index search” s(ll controls wired web; in mobile, use cases and behaviors are different, resul(ng in different winners
Hypothesis #3
Apps Replace Google for Mobile Search
Hypernet
HTML 4 100 searches
App Model + Carriers
Units/$ ===>
App Model iPad: 10 iPhone: 1
5/4/12 ”How to Revive the Web" by Roger McNamee 10
Hypernet
Google MicrosoX Facebook Cisco
Oracle/Sun SAP Intel
Apple Verizon ATT
“Publishers” Amazon B&N
Web Winners Have Failed to Profit From Mobile
5/4/12 ”How to Revive the Web" by Roger McNamee 11
Apple succeeded by hiding technology wherever possible . . . and subs(tu(ng style.
Hypothesis #4
13
Hypernet
HTML 4 Open source Long tail Free
Commodi(zed Wild West
App Model + Carriers
Units/$ ===>
App Model iOS
Branded Free + Paid
Differen(ated Secure
$400-‐1,000
Customers Don’t Love the Web
5/4/12 ”How to Revive the Web" by Roger McNamee
Next genera(on web technology will favor publishers/consumers over middle men
Hypothesis #5
Commodity Content
HTML 4 Web
App Model Future: HTML 5 à
Tech Pendulum Enabling More Content Differen1a1on
5/4/2012 ”How to Revive the Web" by Roger McNamee 15
Differen(ated Content
HTML 4 Web
Engagement: Metric of Value for Content
4/4/2012 ”How to Revive the Web" by Roger McNamee 16
iOS HTML 5 Web
15-‐20 secs/story
2-‐5 mins/ app ????
Commodi(zed content favors middle men; differen(ated content favors
publishers and consumers
Content = Differen(ated
Content = Commodity
Engagement
Value to Publisher $
You are here!
HTML 4 zone iOS zone HTML 5 zone
Flash
Flash
Flash
Flash
HTML 4 -‐ Today HTML 5 -‐ 2014
HTML 4
HTML 4 HTML 4 HTML 4 HTML 4
HTML 5
HTML 5 = Higher Produc1on Values, Lower Cost
5/4/12 ”How to Revive the Web" by Roger McNamee 18
HTML 5 enables everything to be an app, including ads Ads can be @ed directly to content It may be 2-‐3 years before HTML 5 tools will enable this
HTML 5 = Engagement and Mone1za1on
STORY Product 1 Product 2 Product 3
Product 1 * Product 2 * Product 3 *
Adver(sement
5/4/12 ”How to Revive the Web" by Roger McNamee 19
1. App: func@ons like a na@ve app
2. eBook: something to read later
3. Bookmark+:
content available for later reference
4. Layers
HTML 5 “Apps” May Have Mul1ple Forms
STORY Product 1 Product 2 Product 3
Ticker 1 * Ticker 2 * Ticker 3 *
Stock Trading App
5/4/12 ”How to Revive the Web" by Roger McNamee 20
INFOGRAPHIC
2
1
3 4
1. App delivery
2. eBook: atomiza@on of content enables incremental revenue
3. Content available for
later reference can include mone@za@on
4. Layers can include
mone@za@on
Mul1ple Forms of High Value Mone1za1on
STORY Product 1 Product 2 Product 3
Ticker 1 * Ticker 2 * Ticker 3 *
Stock Trading App
5/4/12 ”How to Revive the Web" by Roger McNamee 21
INFOGRAPHIC
2
1
3 4
World Wide Web
HTML 4
App Model
Units/$ ===>
HTML 5
Google Apple ???
Content = Commodity
Content = Limited Differen1a1on
Content = Unlimited Differen1a1on
Desktops Smart Phones Future
HTML 5 = Wide Open Opportunity
5/4/12 ”How to Revive the Web" by Roger McNamee 22
Advantage Scale Open Source Cost Control Economics Func1onality
iOS √ ???
HTML 5 √ √ √ √ ???
HTML 5 vs Na1ve Apps
5/4/12 ”How to Revive the Web" by Roger McNamee 23
World Wide Web
HTML 4
App Model
Units/$ ===>
HTML 5
Google Apple ???
Content = Commodity
Content = Limited Differen1a1on
Content = Unlimited Differen1a1on
Desktops Smart Phones Future
HTML 5 = Wide Open Opportunity
5/4/12 ”How to Revive the Web" by Roger McNamee 24
Children under the age of 8 may never use a PC the way you do.
Hypothesis #6
An Eight-‐Year Old’s Idea of a Computer
5/4/12 ”How to Revive the Web" by Roger McNamee 26
Android has a broken economic model; cannot compete with Apple in the long term
Hypothesis #7
COGS
COGS
Apple Android
Apple’s gross margin is roughly equal to gross revenues for a comparable Android
Brand is a HUGE Advantage
5/4/12 ”How to Revive the Web" by Roger McNamee 28
5/4/12 ”How to Revive the Web" by Roger McNamee 29
Android = Entropy at High Velocity
Amazon
Barnes & Noble Samsung
Verizon
Original Android Standard
5/4/12 ”How to Revive the Web" by Roger McNamee 30
• Content • Cool factor
• Tech heat seeker
• Inexpensive
Smart Phone Purchase Drivers
Apple Android
“Social” and “Mobile” are now a cost, not a compe((ve advantage
Hypothesis #8
The Cloud will be highly distributed. Home clouds may prove to be the most valuable.
Hypothesis #9
33
• Content • Cool factor
Compe11on in the Cloud
Apple Google
Amazon
Microsoh SAP
Neilix
v vv v
v
v
Private and Home Clouds
Disrup(on of cable, satellite, and even NetFlix is beginning.
Hypothesis #10
• US economy is beginning to improve, despite efforts in Washington to reduce deficit – DJIA, S&P, Nasdaq reflect rising op(mism – Unemployment remains high; possibly structural
• Excessive consumer indebtedness acts as a drag on growth • Government deficits act as a drag on future growth
– Wars compete for resources with private economy – Is Iran next?
• Investor challenge: what is the happy ending?
Economic & Market Environment
3/19/12 "Ten Hypotheses" by Roger McNamee 35
5/4/12 ”How to Revive the Web" by Roger McNamee 36
• Content • Cool factor
• Tech heat seeker
• Inexpensive
Onward!!
hOp://www.moonalice.com
hOp://www.eleva(on.com