scrip’s of Telecom at crescent Business School

8/3/2019 scrips of Telecom at crescent Business School

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Technical Analysis of selected scrips of Telecom,

Infrastructure and Banking sectors

By

(P.BALA KUMAR)

(REG. NO. 0929026)

A PROJECT REPORT

Submitted to the

CRESCENT BUSINESS SCHOOL

in partial fulfillment of the requirements

for the awardof the degree of

MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION

APRIL 2011

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BONAFIDE CERTIFICATE

Certified that the project report titled Technical Analysis of selected scrip for Telecom,

Infrastructure and Bank is the bonafide work of Mr. (P.BALA KUMAR)(REG. NO.

0929026) who carried out the research under my supervision. Certified further, that to the

best of my knowledge the work reported herein does not form part of any other project report

or dissertation on the basis of which a degree or award was conferred on earlier occasion on

this or any other candidate.

(Mrs.PANBOLI)Assistant professor(senior grade)Crescent business schoolInternal guide

(Mr.YESUDASAN)Regional head ,

B M A wealth creators.Chennai

External guide

Dr. MIRZA S. SAIYADAIN

Dean, CBS

INTERNAL EXAMINER EXTERNALEXAMINER

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I express my profound thanks to our respected Vice-Chancellor Dr. P. KANNIAPPAN,

M.Sc. Ph.D., and our Registrar Dr. V.M. PERIASAMY, B.E., M.E., Ph.D., for their

enthusiastic support and help in providing all resources behind the scenes.

I wish to regard my sincere thanks to Dr. MIRZA S. SAIYADAIN, M.A., Ph.D., Professor

and Dean, Crescent Business School, B.S. Abdur Rahman University, Vandalur,

Chennai 600048.

I would like to thank to my guide , Mrs. PANBOLI Assistant Professor, Crescent Business

School, for her full involvement in every part of my project.

I would like to thank my external guide MR. YESUDASAN Manager, B M A wealth

creators. for his morale support and encouragement, which helped me in carrying out the

project successfully.

I sincerely thank all the staff members of the Crescent Business School for their valuable

advice and kind cooperation, without which the project would not have emerged as a

successful one.

It is once again a pleasure to acknowledge to my parents, friends and family members for

their constructive and valuable suggestions towards improvement of this project.

Place: Chennai (P.BALAKUMAR)

Date:

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ABSTRACT

The project titled Technical Analysis of selected scrip for Telecom,

Infrastructure and Bank was undertaken B M A wealth creators at chennai. The study

was conducted on few scrips price movements from a period of one year from april 2010 to

march 2011.. Three industries are taken for analysis namely infrastructure, banking, and

telecommunication. The chart provides signals for the existing, prospective investors or the

willing sellers to decide as to when they can buy or sell their scrips, in order to get best

returns on their investments.

Technical analysis attempts to explain and forecast changes in security prices by

studying only the market data rather than information about a company or its prospects as is

done by fundamental analyst. Technical analysts do not attempt to measure a security's

intrinsic value; instead they look at stock charts for patterns and indicators that will determine

a stock's future performance.

The research started with clear analysis and understanding of the problem. The

problem was then classified in to primary and secondary objectives based on the need. Data

has been presented and analysed using suitable scaling technique and tools. Using the results

findings and suggestions are given at the end of the report.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER NO. TITLE PAGE NO

LIST OF TABLES Vi

LIST OF FIGURES Vii

1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Company Profile 1

1.2 Objectives of the study

1.3 Need For Study 4

4

2

3

4

1.4 Scope of the Study

Literature Survey

2.1 Review of Literature

2.2 Research Gap

2.3 Research Design

Methodologies

3.1 Profile of selected company

3.2 Assumptions, Constraints and Limitations

3.3 Data Processing

3.4 Tools for Analysis

Data Analysis and Interpretation

4.1 Relative Strength Index

4.2 Correlation Analysis Method

4.3 Rate of Change

5

6

6

7

8

17

18

18

20

29

34

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5

6

Conclusions

5.1Findings & Suggestions

5.2Conclusions

Appendix

6.1Bibliography 49

46

48

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LIST OF TABLES

TABLE NO. TABLE NAME PAGE NO

4.1.1 Calculation Of Day RSI For AIRTEL 21

4.1.2 Calculation Of Day RSI For RCOM 23

4.1.3 Calculation Of Day RSI For IDEA 26

4.1.1 CALCULATION OF CORRELATION BETWEEN STOCK

RETURN(SBI)AND MARKET RETURN(NSE)

29


RETURN(PNB)AND MARKET RETURN(NSE)

30


RETURN(ICICI)AND MARKET RETURN(NSE)

32

vi

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LIST OF FIGURES AND CHARTS

FIGURE NO. FIGURE NAME PAGE NO

4.1.1 showing Simple Moving Average Curve of

DLF

35


RELIANCE INFRASTRUCTURE

36


GMR INFRASTRUCTURE

37

4.1.4 showing Simple Moving Average Chart of

BHARTI AIRTEL

39


RELIANCE COMMUNICATION

40


IDEA

41

4.1.7 showing Simple Moving Average Chart of STATE

BANK OF INDIA

42

4.1.8 showing Simple Moving Average Chart of PUNJAB

NATIONAL BANK

43

4.1.9 showing Simple Moving Average Chart of ICICI 44

4.1.10 showing Simple Moving Average Chart of DLF 45


RELIANCE INFRASTRUCTURE

46

4.1.12 showing Simple Moving Average Chart of GMR

INFRASTRUCTURE

47

vii

CHAPTER-1

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INTRODUCTION

1.1COMPANY PROFILE

BMA Group, having interests in Refractory, Iron & Steel, Ferro Alloys etc. and having an

aggregate turnover of about Rs 1100 crs. had diversified into financial services in the year

2005 through setting up of BMA Wealth Creators.

Other BMA Group companies

BMA Stainless Ltd.

Maithan Alloys Ltd.

Maithan Smelters Ltd.

National Refractories

Anjaney Ferro Alloys Ltd.

The Behar Potteries Ltd.

A premier financial services organization providing individual and corporates with ustomized

financial solutions. We work towards understanding your financial goals and risk profile. Our

expertise combined with thorough understanding of the financial markets results in

appropriate investment solutions for you. At Wealth Creators we realize your dreams, needs,

aspirations, concerns and resources are unique. This is reflected in every move we make with

and for you. We have deep appreciation for the Value of building an everlasting relationship

with YOU.

Our financial services corporate entities are represented by :

BMA WEALTH CREATORS LTD. which holds corporate membership in two ofthe premier

bourses viz. National Stock Exchange Ltd and Bombay Stock Exchange Ltd. and as

Depository Participant in Central Depositories Services Ltd. (CDSL) and National Securities

Depositories Ltd. (NSDL)

Members

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1. National Stock Exchange Of India Ltd (NSE)

2. The Stock Exchange , Mumbai (BSE)

Area of specialization

Buying, selling and dealing in shares and other securities in secondary markets.

Identifying investment avenues and advising on portfolio management of cash

Services offered

Service is required in everything, in research, in execution and in settlement. It is

going to be the key to survival. If given good service and value to your clients, it will

translate into good business. This has been a strong belief of the board members and they

have not only practiced it but also made efforts to inculcate similar values in the employees

of the organization.

Brokerage

Highly competitive

People

Efficient personal at the trading terminals to give you live quotes or

accept orders. Trained and quick dealers to obtain best rates on-line.

Place Fully air- conditioned trading premises

Comfortable ambience

Communication Adequate telephone and fax lines, direct lines for outstation calls.

E-Mail

Funds they pride themselves in being very prompt and totally reliable

they have built their reputation by honoring their commitments on time

Special facilities Also dedicated telephone line and/or dealer can be assigned for clients who

need the facility.

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Management team

The organization finds its growth in its team of young, talented and confident

individuals. Qualified professionals carry out different functions under the leadership of its

promoters.

Infrastructure

Greatest attention has been paid to transparency and speed with least scope for

human intervention in order execution and confirmation. They have separate trading

terminals for those clients who trade on the telephone with trained telephone- handlers as

dealers.

Reputation for prompt payments and top of the line world-class service levels has

provided them immense credibility in the market place.

Clientele consists of numerous highly valuable and long-standing accounts that will

vouch for our reliability and credibility.

Staffconsists of highly skilled, motivated and qualified personnel who have been

well-trained to spare no effort in providing ultimate customer satisfaction.

1.2 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

Primary Objective

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To analyze the selected scrips of Telecom, Infrastructure and Banking sectors through

technical analysis.

Secondary Objectives

To make simple moving average chart for selected companies under nifty

To analyze and compare the signals revealed by simple moving average.

To give suggestions to investors for effective usage of simple moving average as an

indicator.

1.3 NEED FOR THE STUDY

It is well known that money is the blood of life. In the current scenario, protecting

and multiplying the money is more important than earning. There are many ways of

investment and one of the popular methods is by investing in the shares and Mutual funds.

Investment in these requires certain basic knowledge and involves a lot of risk. There are

various tools available for evaluating the performance of the investments in shares. One such

tool is the technical analysis, that helps in predicting the future movement of prices.

Technical analysis involves calculation and includes the drawing of graphs to track

the existing movement and to extend it to the future for predicting the future prices. It helps

the investor in making the investment decision whether to buy the shares of these companies

when their prices are at a hike or to sell when they drop with the help of the analysis and the

charts used in this study. It also helps in reducing the risk involved in investment of shares by

the investors.

1.4 SCOPE OF THE STUDY

The study is conducted with the price movements of the selected company shares for a

certain period only. This study helps an investor to take timely and correct decision regardingthe investment. This study is limited to selected industries (Infrastructure,

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Telecommunication, Bank) This study can also be used as a referral for other forth coming

studies in the similar field.

CHAPTER -2

LITERATURE SURVEY

2.1 REVIEW OF LITERATURE

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These paper titled early mover advantage Govert E. Bijwaard Maarten C.W.

Janssen*Emiel Maasland, December 22, 2004 We find a clear early mover advantage, mainly

caused by the influence of the penetration rate: it pays to enter when still few people have

acquired a mobile telephone. Another important determining factor is the Herfindahl-

Hirschman Index at the moment of entry: it is significantly easier to enter a highly

concentrated industry. These paper titled A Projection of Best Emerging Bank in Sultanate

of Oman Damodharan .V. S.* and Rengarajan.V, January 2008 But in practice this gives an

overview of the performance of banks on different parameters used. An attempt has been

made to analyze the performance of banks using Price Earnings ratios as well as statistical

models. The results were also tested using fundamental and technical analysis of security

analysis.These paper titled The di_usion of infrastructure dependent technologies: A simple

model We thereby consider the development of large from an evolutionary perspective. We

_rst provide a concise overview describing the literature on the evolution 1 of large technical

systems in Section 2 and identify a set of characteristics that should be captured by our

model. A model based on this description is then presented in Section 3. Section 4 describes

model results as well as a comparison with data concerning the evolution of the LPG system

in the Netherlands.Finally Section 5 concludes.

2.2 RESEARCH GAP

The above papers dealt technical analysis of only limited companies under Telecom,

infrastructure and Banking sectors .Hence this research targeted the following companies for

the study of technical analysis 1) Telecom 2) Infrastructure 3) Banking .

2.3 RESEARCH DESIGN

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Research is an active, diligent and systematic process of inquiry in order to

discover, interpret or revise facts, events, behaviours, or theories, or to make practical

applications with the help of such facts, laws or theories. The term "research" is also used to

describe the collection of information about a particular subject. It means a systematic

investigation, including research development, testing and evaluation, designed to develop or

contribute to general knowledge. Activities which meet this definition constitute research for

purposes of this policy, whether or not they are conducted or supported under a program

which is considered research for other purposes.

Research Methodology refers to the way in which the data are collected for the

research project and also includes all the techniques, methods and procedures adopted in

research work to carry out research. It includes the sequence of steps involved in carrying out

the research.

The research design is the conceptual structure within which research is conducted.

A design is used to structure the research, to show how all of the major parts of the research

project -- the samples or groups, measures, treatments or programs, and methods of

assignment -- work together to try to address the central research questions.

This is an Analytic research. Analytical research aims at analyzing the current

scenario and thereby using that to project the future performance. For the purpose of the

study the following are the industries chosen based on the data available. The name of the

industries and the companies are given below.

CHAPTER -3

METHODOLOGIES

3.1 PROFILE OF SELECTED COMPANIES

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Telecommunication Bharti Airtel

Reliance Communication Limited

Idea Cellular Limited

Banks State Bank Of India

Punjab National Bank

ICICI Bank Limited

Infrastructure DLF

Reliance Infrastructure

GMR

INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY

Infrastructure is the basic physical and organizational structures needed for the

operation of a society or enterprise, or the services and facilities necessary for an

economy to function. The term typically refers to the technical structures that support

a society, such as roads, water supply, sewers,power grids, telecommunications, and

so forth. Viewed functionally, infrastructure facilitates the production of goods and

services; for example, roads enable the transport of raw materials to a factory, andalso for the distribution of finished products to markets. In some contexts, the term

may also include basic social services such as schools and hospitals. In military

parlance, the term refers to the buildings and permanent installations necessary for the

support, redeployment, and operation of military forces.

Encompassing all things to all people is hardly a useful way to

define infrastructure clouding investors, governments, and their citizens ability to

understand, advocate, and direct capital toward durable, networked assets with

widespread societal benefits. Primary infrastructure components are generally

monopolistic in nature and require large financial commitments for their development,

repair and replacement. They can be built, touched, enabled, disabled, and function

together to form interrelated, dependent systems that deliver needed commodities and

services to society. In doing so, they facilitate economic productivity and promote a

standard of living. Infrastructure can then be more concisely defined as The physical

components of interrelated systems providing commodities and services essential

to enable, sustain, or enhance societal living conditions.

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DLFDLF Limited orDLF (originally Delhi Land and Finance) is

India's biggest real estate developerbased in New Delhi, India. The DLF Group was founded

by Raghuvendra Singh in 1946. DLF developed residential colonies in Delhi such as ShivajiPark ( which was actually its first one), Rajouri Garden, Krishna Nagar, South Extension,

Greater Kailash, Kailash Colony and Hauz Khas. In 1957, with the passage of Delhi

Development Act, the local government assumed control of real estate development in Delhi

and banned private real estate developers.

As a result DLF began acquiring land at relatively low cost outside the area controlled by the

Delhi Development Authority, in the district ofGurgaon, in the adjacent state ofHaryana. In

the mid-1970s, the company started developing DLF City project at Gurgaon. Its upcoming

plans include hotels,infrastructure and special economic zones-related development projects.

The company is currently headed by Indian billionaire Kushal Pal Singh, a Jat from

BulandShahar. Kushal Pal Singh, according to the Forbes listing of richest billionaires in

2009, now stands as the 98th richest man in the world and the world's richest property

developer. The company's US$ 2 billion IPO in July, 2007 created India's biggest IPO in

history. In July 2007, DLF announced its first quarter results ending 30 June 2007. The

company reported a turnover of Rs. 3,120.98 Crore and PAT at Rs. 1,515.48 Crore.

Reliance InfrastructureReliance Infrastructure, (BSE: 500390) formerly known as Reliance Energy and prior to

that as Bombay Suburban Electric Supply (BSES), Its India's largest private sector

enterprise in power utility and its a company under the Reliance Anil Dhirubhai Ambani

Group banner, one of India's largest conglomerates. The company is headed by Anil Ambani.The company's corporate headquarters is situated in Mumbai. The company is the sole

distributor of electricity to consumers in the suburbs of Mumbai. It also runs power

generation, transmission and distribution businesses in other parts of Maharashtra, Goa and

Andhra Pradesh. Reliance Energy plans to increase its power generation capacity by adding

16,000 MW with investments of $13 billion.

GMR

GMR Group is a major infrastructure company in India which is headquartered in

Bangalore. The company was founded in 1978. The core business areas of the company

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_estate_developerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gurgaonhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haryanahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hotelhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infrastructurehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_economic_zoneshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India_Rich_Listhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kushal_Pal_Singhhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jathttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Property_developerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Property_developerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US$http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPOhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombay_Stock_Exchangehttp://www.bseindia.com/bseplus/StockReach/AdvanceStockReach.aspx?scripcode=500390http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reliance_Anil_Dhirubhai_Ambani_Grouphttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reliance_Anil_Dhirubhai_Ambani_Grouphttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anil_Ambanihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mumbaihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mumbaihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maharashtrahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andhra_Pradeshhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangalorehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_estate_developerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gurgaonhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haryanahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hotelhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infrastructurehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_economic_zoneshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India_Rich_Listhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kushal_Pal_Singhhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jathttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Property_developerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Property_developerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US$http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPOhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombay_Stock_Exchangehttp://www.bseindia.com/bseplus/StockReach/AdvanceStockReach.aspx?scripcode=500390http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reliance_Anil_Dhirubhai_Ambani_Grouphttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reliance_Anil_Dhirubhai_Ambani_Grouphttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anil_Ambanihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mumbaihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mumbaihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maharashtrahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andhra_Pradeshhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangalore


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include airports, energy and highways; apart from having presence in the agriculture and

aviation sectors. They are also actively involved in community service as a part ofCorporate

Social Responsibility.

Airports.

Roads and Highways

Energy

Agriculture

Aviation

TELECOMMUNICATION INDUSTRY

The Indian telecommunications industry is one of the fastest growing in the world

and India is projected to become the second largest telecom market globally by 2010.

In April 2008, India overtook the US as the second largest wireless market, and as a

pointer to the increasing global influence of Indian telecom companies, seven Indians have

featured in the list of the world's 100 most influential telecom leaders, compiled by Global

Telecoms Business, an industry magazine.

According to CRISIL Research estimates, eight infrastructure sectors, which include

the telecom sector, are expected to draw more than US$ 345.28 billion investment in India by

2012.

With the rural India growth story unfolding, the telecom sector is likely to see

tremendous growth in India's rural and semi-urban areas in the years to come. By 2012, India

is likely to have 200 million rural telecom connections at a penetration rate of 25 per cent.

And according to a report jointly released by Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) and

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Ernst & Young, by 2012, rural users will account for over 60 per cent of the total telecom

subscriber base.

It is projected that the industry will generate revenues worth US$ 43 billion in 2009-

10.India's telecom equipment manufacturing sector is set to become one of the largestglobally by 2010.

Mobile phone production is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 28.3 per cent from 2006 to

2011, totaling 107 million handsets by 2010. Revenues are estimated to grow at a CAGR of

26.6 per cent from 2006 to 2011, touching US$ 13.6 billion

Bharati AirtelBharti Airtel Limited (NSE: BHARTIARTL,BSE: 532454), commonly known as

airtel, is an Indian telecommunicationscompany that operates in 19 countries across South

Asia, Africa and the Channel Islands. It operates a GSM networkin all countries, providing

2G or3G services depending upon the country of operation. Airtel is the fifth largest telecom

operator in the world with over 207.8 million subscribers across 19 countries at the end of

2010. It is the largest cellular service providerinIndia, with over 152.5 million subscribers at

the end of 2010. Airtel is the 3rd largest in-country mobile operator by subscriber base,

behind China Mobile and China Unicom..

Airtel also offers fixed line services and broadband services. It offers its telecom services

under the Airtel brand and is headed by Sunil Bharti Mittal. Bharti Airtel is the first Indian

telecom service provider to achieve this Cisco Gold Certification. To earn Gold

Certification, Bharti Airtel had to meet rigorous standards for networking competency,

service, support and customer satisfaction set forth by Cisco. The company also provides

land-line telephone services and broadband Internet access (DSL) in over 96 cities in India.

It also acts as a carrier for national and international long distance communication services.

The company has a submarine cable landing station at Chennai, which connects the

submarine cable connectingChennai and Singapore.

It is known for being the first mobile phone company in the world to outsource everything

except marketing and sales and finance. Its network (base stations, microwave links, etc.) are

maintained by Ericsson, Nokia Siemens Network and Huawei.,[4] business support by IBM

and transmission towers by another company (Bharti Infratel Ltd. in India). [5] Ericsson agreed

for the first time, to be paid by the minute for installation and maintenance of their equipment

rather than being paid up front. This enabled the company to provide pan-India phone call

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Stock_Exchange_of_Indiahttp://www.nseindia.com/marketinfo/companyinfo/companysearch.jsp?cons=BHARTIARTL&section=7http://www.nseindia.com/marketinfo/companyinfo/companysearch.jsp?cons=BHARTIARTL&section=7http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombay_Stock_Exchangehttp://www.bseindia.com/bseplus/StockReach/AdvanceStockReach.aspx?scripcode=532454http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telecommunicationshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telecommunicationshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Asiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Asiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Africahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Channel_Islandshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GSM_networkhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2Ghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3Ghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operatorshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operatorshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operators_of_Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Mobilehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Unicomhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunil_Bharti_Mittalhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ciscohttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chennaihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chennaihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singaporehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ericssonhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nokia_Siemens_Networkhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nokia_Siemens_Networkhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huaweihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huaweihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBMhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBMhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Stock_Exchange_of_Indiahttp://www.nseindia.com/marketinfo/companyinfo/companysearch.jsp?cons=BHARTIARTL&section=7http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombay_Stock_Exchangehttp://www.bseindia.com/bseplus/StockReach/AdvanceStockReach.aspx?scripcode=532454http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telecommunicationshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Asiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Asiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Africahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Channel_Islandshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GSM_networkhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2Ghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3Ghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operatorshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operatorshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operators_of_Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Mobilehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Unicomhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunil_Bharti_Mittalhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ciscohttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chennaihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singaporehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ericssonhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nokia_Siemens_Networkhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huaweihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM


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rates of Rs. 1/minute (U$0.02/minute). Call rates have come down much further. [6] During the

last financial year [2009-10], Bharti has roped in a strategic partnerAlcatel-Lucent to manage

the network infrastructure for the Telemedia Business.

Reliance Communication LimitedIn July 2007, the company announced it was buying US-based managed ethernet and

application delivery services companyYipes Enterprise Services for a cash amount of 1200

crore (the equivalent of US$300 million). The deal was announced of the overseas

acquisition, the Reliance group has amalgamated the United States-based Flag Telecom for

$210 million (roughly 950 crore). RTL operates in Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, Himachal

Pradesh, Orissa, Bihar, Assam, Kolkata and Northeast, offeringGSM services.

Reliance communications limited provides integrated converged communications

services to individual, enterprise, and carrier customers primarily in India. With more than 48

million customers, the company serves consumers and enterprises with a digital network

supporting voice, data, and video the company offers wireless, wireline, national long

distance, international, voice, data, video and internet based communication services. Its

services for individual customers primarily include mobile, fixed wireless phone, fixed

wireless terminal, roaming, landline, internet connection, phone community, and public

calling office.

IDEA Cellular LimitedIdea Cellular, usually referred to as !dea, (BSE: 532822,NSE: IDEA) is a

wireless telephony company operating in all the 22 telecom circles in India based in

Mumbai. It is the 3rd largest GSM company in India behind Airtel,Vodafone.

20
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcatel-Lucenthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcatel-Lucenthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethernethttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Yipes_Enterprise_Services&action=edit&redlink=1http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Yipes_Enterprise_Services&action=edit&redlink=1http://www.flagtelecom.com/http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GSMhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GSMhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GSMhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombay_Stock_Exchangehttp://www.bseindia.com/bseplus/StockReach/AdvanceStockReach.aspx?scripcode=532822http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Stock_Exchange_of_Indiahttp://www.nseindia.com/marketinfo/companyinfo/companysearch.jsp?cons=IDEA&section=7http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telephonyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mumbaihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airtelhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vodafonehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_ruphttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_ruphttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcatel-Lucenthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethernethttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Yipes_Enterprise_Services&action=edit&redlink=1http://www.flagtelecom.com/http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GSMhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombay_Stock_Exchangehttp://www.bseindia.com/bseplus/StockReach/AdvanceStockReach.aspx?scripcode=532822http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Stock_Exchange_of_Indiahttp://www.nseindia.com/marketinfo/companyinfo/companysearch.jsp?cons=IDEA&section=7http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telephonyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mumbaihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airtelhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vodafone


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Idea Cellular is part of the Aditya Birla Group, which is India's first truly

multinational corporation. India's leading GSM Mobile Services operator, IDEA Cellular has

licenses to operate in 11 circles. With a customer base of over 17 million, IDEA Cellular has

operations in Delhi, Maharashtra, Goa, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh,

Chattisgarh, Uttaranchal, Haryana, UP-West, Himachal Pradesh and Kerala. IDEA Cellular's

footprint currently covers approximately 45% of India's population and over 50% of the

potential telecom-market.

BANKING INDUSTRY

A bankis a financial intermediary and appears in several related basic forms:

a central bank issues money on behalf of a government, and regulates the money

supply

a commercial bank accepts deposits and channels those deposits into lending

activities, either directly or through capital markets. A bank connects customers with

capital deficits to customers with capital surpluses on the world's open financial

markets.

a savings bank, also known as abuilding society in Britain is only allowed to borrowand save from members of a financial cooperative

Banks often start as microcredit or savings clubs which become formalized, first as credit

unions and later savings banks which transform themselves from cooperatives to limited

liability companies. A fuller description of these forms appears below.

Banking is generally a highly regulated industry, and government restrictions on financial

activities by banks have varied over time and location. The current set of global bank capital

standards are called Basel II. In some countries such as Germany, banks have historicallyowned major stakes in industrial corporations while in other countries such as the United

States banks are prohibited from owning non-financial companies. In Japan, banks are

usually the nexus of a cross-share holding entity known as the keiretsu. In Iceland banks had

very light regulation prior to the 2008 collapse.

The oldest bank still in existence is Monte dei Paschi di Siena, headquartered in Siena, Italy,

and has been operating continuously since 1472.

21
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_intermediaryhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_bankhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supplyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supplyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commercial_bankhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deposit_accounthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_markethttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_surplushttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_markethttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_markethttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savings_bankhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Building_societyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cooperativehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microcredithttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christmas_clubhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_unionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_unionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Limited_liabilityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Limited_liabilityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_regulationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basel_IIhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germanyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Stateshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Stateshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keiretsuhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%C3%A2%C2%80%C2%932010_Icelandic_financial_crisishttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_dei_Paschi_di_Sienahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sienahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_intermediaryhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_bankhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supplyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supplyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commercial_bankhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deposit_accounthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_markethttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_surplushttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_markethttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_markethttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savings_bankhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Building_societyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cooperativehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microcredithttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christmas_clubhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_unionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_unionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Limited_liabilityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Limited_liabilityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_regulationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basel_IIhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germanyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Stateshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Stateshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keiretsuhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%C3%A2%C2%80%C2%932010_Icelandic_financial_crisishttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_dei_Paschi_di_Sienahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sienahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italy


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For the past three decades Indias banking system has several outstanding

achievements to its credit. The most striking is its extensive reach. It is no longer confined to

only metropolitans or cosmopolitans in India. In fact, Indian banking system has reached

even to the remote corners of the country. This is one of the main reasons of Indias growth

process.

The industry is currently in a transition phase. On the one hand, the public sector

banks, which are the mainstay of the Indian banking system, are in the process of shedding

their flab in terms of excessive manpower, excessive Non Performing Assests and excessive

governmental equity, while on the other hand the private sector banks are consolidating

themselves through mergers and acquisitions.

A burgeoning economy, financial sector reforms, rising foreign investment, favorable

regulatory climate and demographic profile has led to India becoming one of the fastest

growing banking market in the world. The overall banking industrys business grew at a

CAGR of about 20 per cent from US$ 469.4 billion as of March 2002, to US$ 1171.29 billion

by March 2007.

Aggregate bank deposits of banks increased by us$129.26 billion (22.1 percent) at the

end of March 2007 over the corresponding in 2006. It further increased by 21.2 percent to

US$ 161.47 billion as at end march 2008 over the corresponding period in 2007.while

aggregate demand deposits increased by 19.2 percent, aggregate time deposits increased by

21.6 percent in the same period, indicating migration from small savings schemes of the

government.

Also. the banking sector has been doing exceedingly well on the financial front.

Punjab National Bank

Punjab National Bank (PNB) is one of India's largest nationalized banks, with

some 4,500 locations. Punjab National Bank is serving over 3.5 crore customers through

4525 Offices including 432 extension counters - largest amongst Nationalized Banks. The

Bank was recently ranked 21st amongst top 500 companies by the leading financial daily,

Economic Times.

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The bank has been focussing on expanding its operations outside India and has

identified some of the emerging economies which offer large business potential. Bank has set

up representative offices at Almaty: Kazakhistan, Shanghai: China and in London. Besides,

Bank has opened a fully fledged Branch in Kabul, Afghanistan.

ICICI bank LimitedICICI Bank (NSE: ICICIBANK, BSE: 532174, NYSE: IBN) (formerly Industrial

Credit and Investment Corporation of India, Hindi: ) is a major

banking and financial services organization in India. It is the second largest bank in India

and the largest private sector bank in India by market capitalization. The bank also has a

network of 2,016 branches (as on 31 March 2010) and about 5,219 ATMs in India and

presence in 18 countries, as well as some 24 million customers (at the end of July 2007).

ICICI Bank offers a wide range of banking products and financial services to corporate and

retail customers through a variety of delivery channels and specialization subsidiaries and

affiliates in the areas of investment banking, life and non-life insurance, venture capital and

asset management. (These data are dynamic.) ICICI Bank is also the largest issuer of credit

cards in India. ICICI Bank's shares are listed on the stock exchanges at BSE,NSE, Kolkata

and Vadodara (formerly Baroda) ; its ADRs trade on the New York Stock Exchange

(NYSE).

The Bank is expanding in overseas markets and has the largest international balance

sheet among Indian banks. ICICI Bank now has wholly owned subsidiaries, branches and

representatives offices in 19 countries, including an offshore unit in Mumbai. This includes

wholly owned subsidiaries in Canada, Russia and the UK (the subsidiary through which the

HiSAVE savings brand[5] is operated), offshore banking units in Bahrain and Singapore, an

advisory branch in Dubai, branches in Belgium, Hong Kong and Sri Lanka, and

representative offices in Bangladesh, China, Malaysia, Indonesia, South Africa, Thailand,

the United Arab Emirates and USA. Overseas, the Bank is targeting the NRI (Non-Resident

Indian) population in particular.

ICICI reported a 1.15% rise in net profit to 1,014.21 crore on a 1.29% increase in

total income to 9,712.31 crore in Q2 September 2008 over Q2 September 2007. The bank's

CASA ratio increased to 30% in 2008 from 25% in 2007.

ICICI Bank is one of the Big Fourbanks of India, along with State Bank of India,Punjab National Bankand HDFC Bank

23
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Stock_Exchange_of_Indiahttp://www.nseindia.com/marketinfo/companyinfo/companysearch.jsp?cons=ICICIBANK&section=7http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombay_Stock_Exchangehttp://www.bseindia.com/bseplus/StockReach/AdvanceStockReach.aspx?scripcode=532174http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_Stock_Exchangehttp://www.nyse.com/about/listed/quickquote.html?ticker=ibnhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindi_languagehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombay_Stock_Exchangehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Stock_Exchange_of_Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kolkata_Stock_Exchangehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vadodara_Stock_Exchangehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Depositary_Receipthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_Stock_Exchangehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CASA_ratiohttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Bank_of_Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punjab_National_Bankhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HDFC_Bankhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_ruphttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_ruphttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Stock_Exchange_of_Indiahttp://www.nseindia.com/marketinfo/companyinfo/companysearch.jsp?cons=ICICIBANK&section=7http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombay_Stock_Exchangehttp://www.bseindia.com/bseplus/StockReach/AdvanceStockReach.aspx?scripcode=532174http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_Stock_Exchangehttp://www.nyse.com/about/listed/quickquote.html?ticker=ibnhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindi_languagehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombay_Stock_Exchangehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Stock_Exchange_of_Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kolkata_Stock_Exchangehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vadodara_Stock_Exchangehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Depositary_Receipthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_Stock_Exchangehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CASA_ratiohttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Bank_of_Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punjab_National_Bankhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HDFC_Bank


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State Bank Of IndiaState Bank of India is the nation's largest bank. Tracing its roots back some 200

years to the British East India Company (and initially established as the Bank of Calcutta in

1806), the bank operates more than 14,000 branches within India, where it also owns

majority stakes in seven associate banks. State Bank of India has more than 50 offices in

nearly 35 other countries, including multiple locations in the US, Canada, and Nigeria. The

bank has other units devoted to capital markets, fund management, factoring and commercial

services, and brokerage services. The Reserve Bank of India owns about 60% of State Bank

of India.

The banks dealing rooms provide 24-hour trading facilities and employs state-of-the-

art technology and information systems. SBIs relationships with over 700 correspondent

banks and institutions across the globe enhance the strength of the Forex treasury.

Data Collection

The data used for this study is secondary data. The daily price movements of the

companies have been collected from the website nseindia.com

The data include the daily price movements of the companies for the period of one

year from April 2010 to March 2011.

3.2 ASSUMPTION

As a first step in improving on "naive" forecasting models, non seasonal patterns and

trends can be extrapolated using a moving-average or smoothingmodel. The basic

assumption behind averaging and smoothing models is that the time series is "locally

stationary" with a slowly varying mean. Hence, we take a moving(i.e., local) average toestimate the current value of the mean, and use this as the forecast. This can be considered as

a compromise between the mean model and the random walk model. The moving average is

often called a "smoothed" version of the original series, since short-term averaging has the

effect of smoothing out the bumps in the original series. By adjusting the degree of

smoothing (i.e., the "width" of the moving average), we can hope to strike some kind of

optimal balance between the performance of the mean and random walk models.

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LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

The limitations are, period of study is limited few months only. The study is

conducted only on selected industries, and few stocks. The data of previous one year from

April 2010 to march 2011 is only taken. The market discounts everything, therefore it is

difficult to arrive on a consensus based on just a particular tool prediction alone.

3.3 DATA PROCESSING

Type of data

Secondary Data

Sources

Companys annual report

Companys website

Research Period

1 year (from April 2010 to March 2011)

3.4 Tools Analysis

Quantitative method

Regression

Rate of change

Relative Strength Index

SPSS software used for analysis.

CHAPTER-4

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DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Analysis of share price movements of Telecom, Bank and Infrastructure by using technical

analysis

Introduction

Technical analysis is a financial markets technique that claims the ability to forecast

the future direction of security prices through the study of past market data, primarily price

and volume Technical analysts believe that the historical performance of stocks and markets

are indications of future performance.

Tools used

1. Relative Strength Index

2. Regression Line

3. Rate of change

CALCULATIONS

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4.1 Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI's full name is actually rather unfortunate as it is easily confused with other

forms of Relative Strength analysis such as John Murphy's "Relative Strength" charts and

IBD's "Relative Strength" rankings. Most other kinds of "Relative Strength" stuff involve

using more than one stock in the calculation. Like most true indicators, the RSI only needs

one stock to be computed. In order to avoid confusion, many people avoid using the RSI's full

name and just call it "the RSI."

Calculation of RSI

100

RSI = 100 - ------------

1 + RS

RS = Average Gain / Average Loss

To simplify our explanation of the formula, the RSI has been broken down into its basic

components which are the RS, the Average Gain, and the Average Loss.

To calculate RSI values for a given dataset, first find the magnitude of all gains and losses for

the 9 periods prior to the time where you wish to start the calculation. (Note: 9 is the standard

number of periods used when calculating the RSI. If a different number is specified, justsubstitute that number in for "9" throughout this discussion.)

To start the running calculation, the First Average Gain is calculated as the total of all gains

during the past 9 periods divided by 9. Similarly, the First Average Loss is calculated as the

total magnitude of all losses during the past 9 periods divided by 9. The next values for the

"averages" are calculated by taking the previous value, multiplying it by 8, adding in the next

Gain (or Loss), and then dividing by 9. This is Wilder's modified "smoothing" technique in

Action .The RS value is simply the Average Gain divided by the Average Loss for each

period.

Finally, the RSI is simply the RS converted into an oscillator that goes between zero

and 100 using this formula: 100 - (100 / RS + 1).

Table 4.1.1 Calculation Of Day RSI For AIRTEL

DATE PRICE VALUE GAIN LOSE RSI

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03-Jan-11 359.35

04-Jan-11 355.3 -4.05 -4.05

05-Jan-11 349.9 -5.4 -5.4

06-Jan-11 353.25 3.35 3.35

07-Jan-11 338.7 -14.55 -14.55

10-Jan-11 338.85 0.15 0.15

11-Jan-11 339.2 0.35 0.35

12-Jan-11 348.5 9.3 9.3

13-Jan-11 346.05 -2.45 -2.45

13.15 -26.45

3.2875 -6.6125 -0.49716

33.20419

14-Jan-11 342.7 342.7 -3.35

17-Jan-11 347.6 4.9 4.9

18-Jan-11 344.5 -3.1 -3.1

19-Jan-11 344.05 -0.45 -0.4520-Jan-11 340.3 -3.75 -3.75

21-Jan-11 336.6 -3.7 -3.7

24-Jan-11 333.85 -2.75 2.75

25-Jan-11 336.85 3 3

27-Jan-11 325.65 -11.2 -11.2

7.9 -22.8

3.95 -3.25714 -1.21272

54.80635

28-Jan-11 327.1 327.1 1.4531-Jan-11 318.55 -8.55 -8.55

01-Feb-11 314.6 -3.95 -3.95

02-Feb-11 323.25 8.65 8.65

03-Feb-11 339.8 16.55 16.55

04-Feb-11 331.8 -8 -8

07-Feb-11 334 2.2 2.2

08-Feb-11 333.25 -0.75 -0.75

09-Feb-11 332.35 -0.9 -0.9

28.85 -22.15

7.2125 -4.43 -1.6281

61.9482

5

10-Feb-11 323.05 323.05 -9.3

11-Feb-11 319.55 -3.5 -3.5

14-Feb-11 327.3 7.75 7.75

15-Feb-11 328.75 1.45 1.45

16-Feb-11 328.15 -0.6 -0.6

17-Feb-11 338.45 10.3 10.3

18-Feb-11 332.15 -6.3 -6.3

21-Feb-11 331.95 -0.2 -0.2

22-Feb-11 331.15 -0.8 -0.8

19.5 -20.7

6.5 -3.45 -1.88406

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65.32594

23-Feb-11 327.85 327.85 -3.3

24-Feb-11 325.35 -2.5 -2.5

25-Feb-11 329.2 3.85 3.85

28-Feb-11 331.1 1.9 1.9

01-Mar-11 337.85 6.75 6.75

03-Mar-11 330.7 -7.15 -7.15

04-Mar-11 326.75 -3.95 -3.95

07-Mar-11 323.95 -2.8 -2.8

08-Mar-11 334.2 10.25 10.25

22.75 -19.7

5.6875 -3.94 -1.44353

59.1002

09-Mar-11 332.3 332.3 -1.9

10-Mar-11 329.7 -2.6 -2.6

11-Mar-11 322.85 -6.85 -6.85

14-Mar-11 321.55 -1.3 -1.3

15-Mar-11 314.2 -7.35 -7.35

16-Mar-11 320.45 6.25 6.25

17-Mar-11 318.3 -2.15 -2.15

18-Mar-11 317.9 -0.4 -0.4

21-Mar-11 317.35 -0.55 -0.55

6.25 -23.1

6.25 -2.8875 -2.1645

68.39444

22-Mar-11 325.85 325.85 8.5

23-Mar-11 330.4 4.55 4.55

24-Mar-11 332.9 2.5 2.5

25-Mar-11 339.1 6.2 6.2

28-Mar-11 347.8 8.7 8.7

29-Mar-11 359.5 11.7 11.7

30-Mar-11 359.25 -0.25 -0.25

42.15 -0.25

7.025 -0.25 -28.196.56357

Inference

The broad rule is, if the RSI crosses seventy three may be downturn and it is time to sell. If

the RSI falls below thirty it is time to pick up the scrip.If the share price value of Airtel is in

the position of up trend,it gives a clear signal of sell.the term oversold describes a

security or market that has declined to an unreasonably low level.this condition is characeried

by an increase in sales and excess of net declines.

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Table 4.1.2 Calculation Of Day RSI For RCOM

DATE PRICE VALUE GAIN LOSS

03-Jan-11 147.9 04-Jan-11 144.2 -3.7 -3.7

05-Jan-11 140.15 -4.05 -4.05

06-Jan-11 139.95 -0.2 -0.2

07-Jan-11 139.1 -0.85 -0.85

10-Jan-11 135 -4.1 -4.1

11-Jan-11 137.8 2.8 2.8

12-Jan-11 138.3 0.5 0.5

13-Jan-11 138.5 0.2 0.2

3.5 -12.9

1.166667 -2.58 -0.4522

31.13896

14-Jan-11 138.4 138.4 -0.1

17-Jan-11 131.8 -6.6 -6.6

18-Jan-11 132.15 0.35 0.35

19-Jan-11 131 -1.15 -1.15

20-Jan-11 133.25 2.25 2.25

21-Jan-11 136.1 2.85 2.85

24-Jan-11 134.65 -1.45 -1.45

25-Jan-11 132.8 -1.85 -1.85

27-Jan-11 127.65 -5.15 -5.15

5.45 -16.3

1.816667 -2.71667 -0.66871

40.07311

28-Jan-11 125.1 125.1 -2.55

31-Jan-11 122.6 -2.5 -2.5

01-Feb-11 118.35 -4.25 -4.55

02-Feb-11 117.05 -1.3 -1.3

03-Feb-11 118.05 1 1

04-Feb-11 114.75 -3.3 -3.3

07-Feb-11 115.55 0.8 0.8

08-Feb-11 110.7 -4.85 -4.85

09-Feb-11 94.85 -15.85 -15.85

1.8 -34.9

0.9 -4.98571 -0.1805215.29013

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10-Feb-11 96.55 96.55 1.7

11-Feb-11 97.15 0.6 0.6

14-Feb-11 97.4 0.25 0.25

15-Feb-11 101.45 4.05 4.05

16-Feb-11 99.7 -1.75 -1.75

17-Feb-11 99.95 0.25 0.25

18-Feb-11 93.15 -6.8 -6.8

21-Feb-11 93.7 0.55 0.55

22-Feb-11 95.1 1.4 1.4

8.8 -8.55

1.257143 -4.275 -0.29407

22.72025

23-Feb-11 96.5 96.5 1.4

24-Feb-11 92.55 -3.95 -3.9525-Feb-11 87.55 -5 -5

28-Feb-11 86 -1.55 -1.55

01-Mar-11 90.3 4.3 4.3

03-Mar-11 93.25 2.95 2.95

04-Mar-11 93.3 0.05 0.05

07-Mar-11 90.05 -3.25 -3.25

08-Mar-11 90.8 0.75 0.75

9.45 -13.75

1.89 -3.4375 -0.54982

35.47555

09-Mar-11 99.3 99.3 8.5

10-Mar-11 99.75 0.45 0.45

11-Mar-11 96.3 -3.45 -3.45

14-Mar-11 100.5 4.2 4.2

15-Mar-11 100.95 0.45 0.45

16-Mar-11 102.95 2 2

17-Mar-11 106.55 3.6 3.6

18-Mar-11 104.5 -2.05 -2.05

21-Mar-11 102.9 -1.6 -1.6

19.2 -7.1

3.2 -2.36667 -1.35211

57.4848

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22-Mar-11 103.5 103.5 0.6

23-Mar-11 104.65 1.15 1.15

24-Mar-11 104.7 0.05 0.05

25-Mar-11 106.8 2.1 2.1

28-Mar-11 105.2 -1.6 -1.6

29-Mar-11 109.6 4.4 4.4

30-Mar-11 109.9 0.3 0.3

8.6 -1.6

1.433333 -1.6 -0.89583

47.25182

Inference


the RSI falls below thirty it is time to pick up the scrip. If the share price value of reliance

communication is in the position of down trend, it gives a clear signal of buy. The term

overbought describes the price level at which momentum can no longer be maintained and

the price has to go down.

Table 4.1.3 Calculation Of Day RSI For IDEA

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Inference

The broad rule is, if the

RSI crosses seventy three may

be downturn and it is time to

sell. If the RSI falls below thirty

it is time to pick up the scrip. Ifthe share price value of idea is

in the position of uptrend to

down trend, it gives a clear

signal of buy. The term

overbought describes the price

level at which momentum can

no longer be maintained and the

price has to go down.

33

DATE PRICE VALUE GAIN LOSS

03-Jan-11 70.7

04-Jan-11 69.5 -1.2 -1.2

05-Jan-11 69.45 -0.05 -0.05

06-Jan-11 69.6 0.15 0.15

07-Jan-11 67.3 -2.3 -2.3

10-Jan-11 66.3 -1 -1

11-Jan-11 66.5 0.2 0.2

12-Jan-11 67.95 1.45 1.45

13-Jan-11 67.3 -0.65 -0.65

1.8 -5.2

0.6 -1.04 -0.57692

36.58444

14-Jan-11 67.7 67.7 0.4

17-Jan-11 69.15 1.45 1.45

18-Jan-11 68.85 -0.3 -0.3

19-Jan-11 68.85 0 0

20-Jan-11 68.8 -0.05 -0.05

21-Jan-11 68.6 -0.2 -0.2

24-Jan-11 69.3 0.7 0.7

25-Jan-11 71.55 2.25 2.25

27-Jan-11 70.75 -0.8 -0.8

4.8 -1.35

0.96 -0.3375 -2.84444

73.98543

28-Jan-11 70.15 70.15 -0.6

31-Jan-11 69.6 -0.55 -0.55

01-Feb-11 66.45 -3.15 -3.15

02-Feb-11 68.75 2.3 2.3

03-Feb-11 71.3 2.55 2.55

04-Feb-11 69.8 -1.5 -1.5

07-Feb-11 68.8 -1 -108-Feb-11 68.4 -0.4 -0.4

09-Feb-11 66.3 -2.1 -2.1

4.85 -9.3

2.425 -1.32857 -1.82527

64.60515

10-Feb-11 64.85 64.85 -1.4511-Feb-11 63.5 -1.35 -1.35

14-Feb-11 63.35 -0.15 -0.15


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4.2 CORRELATION ANALYSIS METHOD

TABLE 4.2.1CALCULATION OF CORRELATION BETWEEN STOCK RETURN(SBI)AND

MARKET RETURN(NSE)

Correlations

nse SbiPearson Correlation Nse 1.000 .297

Sbi .297 1.000

Sig. (1-tailed) Nse . .010

Sbi .010 .

N Nse 61 61

Sbi 61 61

34

Descriptive Statistics

Mean Std. Deviation NNse 5568.5902 210.04083 61

Sbi 2641.9820 80.33271 61


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INTERPRETATION:

Since the value of R is less than +0.5, it is concluded that there exists a positive

relationship between NSE and SBI . Since r is below +0.5 for an increase in stock return also.

But the increase is not proportionate, it will be less than proportionate. It shows the stock is

moving slower than market movement.

TABLE 4.2.2 CALCULATION OF CORRELATION BETWEEN STOCK RETURN(PNB)ANDMARKET RETURN(NSE)


Mean Std. Deviation N

Nse 5568.5902 210.04083 61

Pnb 1104.8607 52.96681 61

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Correlations

Nse Pnb

Pearson Correlation Nse 1.000 .927

Pnb .927 1.000


Pnb .000 .

N Nse 61 61

Pnb 61 61

Coefficientsa

Model

Unstandardized

Coefficients

Standar

dized

Coeffici

ents

t Sig.

95.0%

Confidence

Interval for B Correlations

B

Std.

Error Beta

Lower

Bound

Upper

Bound

Zero-

order

Parti

al Part

1 (Constant)

1504.977

213.497

7.049 .000 1077.769

1932.184

pnb 3.678 .193 .927 19.05

5

.000 3.292 4.064 .927 .927 .927

a. Dependent Variable: nse

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INTERPRETATION:

Since the value of R is 1, it is concluded that there exists a positive relationship

between NSE and PNB. Since r is positive it means that as both value are same (often called

an equal correlation) The result shows that the PNB moves in tandem with the market.

TABLE 4.2.3 CALCULATION OF CORRELATION BETWEEN STOCK RETURN(ICICIE)ANDMARKET RETURN(NSE)


Mean Std. Deviation N

Nse 5568.5902 210.04083 61

icici_bank 1027.5705 38.76580 61

Correlations

nse icici_bank

Pearson Correlation Nse 1.000 .771

icici_bank .771 1.000


icici_bank .000 .

N Nse 61 61

icici_bank 61 61

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Model Summary

Model

R R Square

Adjusted R

Square

Std. Error of

the Estimate

d

im

e

n

s

i

o

n

0

1 .771a .595 .588 134.81971

ANOVAb

Model Sum of

Squares df Mean Square F Sig.1 Regression 1574624.292 1 1574624.292 86.630 .000a

Residual 1072404.823 59 18176.353

Total 2647029.114 60

a. Predictors: (Constant), icici_bank

b. Dependent Variable: nse

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Coefficientsa

Model

Unstandardized

Coefficients

Standard

ized

Coefficie

nts

t Sig.

95.0% Confidence

Interval for B Correlations

B

Std.

Error Beta

Lower

Bound

Upper

Bound

Zero-

order

Partia

l Part

1 (Const

ant)

1274.45

5

461.683 2.760 .008 350.629 2198.28

2

icici_b

ank

4.179 .449 .771 9.308 .000 3.281 5.077 .771 .771 .771

a. Dependent Variable: nse

INTERPRETATION:

Since the value of R is +0.5, it is concluded that there exists a positive

relationship between NSE and ICICI . Since r is +0.5 for an increase in stock return also.But

the increase is not proportionate,it will be less than proportionate. It shows the stock is


4.3. RATE OF CHANGE

Rate of change indicator or the ROC measures the rate of change between the current

price and the price n number of days in the past. ROC helps to find out the overbought and

oversold positions in a scrip. It is also useful in identifying the trend reversal. Closing prices

are used to calculate the ROC. Daily closing prices are used for the daily ROC and weekly

closing prices for weekly ROC.

ROC = ( (Today's close - Close n periods ago) / (Close n periods ago) ) * 100

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Chart no: 4.1.1 showing Simple Moving Average Curve of

DLF from (1-1-2011 to 30-3-2011)

Inference

The chart of DLF shows that a large positive divergence formed in jan-11 and the ROC

moved into negative territory just before the large decline. While this was a superb buy signal

changed to sell signal. As with most technical indicators, ROC should be used in down trend

with other aspects or technical analysis as well as other non- momentum based indicators.

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Chart no:4.1.2 showing Simple Moving Average Curve of

RELIANCE INFRASTRUCTURE from (1-1-2011 to 30-3-2011)

Inference

The chart of Reliance Infrastructure shows that a large positive divergence formed in jan-11

and the ROC moved into negative territory just before the large decline. While this was a

superb buy signal changed to sell signal. As with most technical indicators, ROC should be

used in down trend with other aspects or technical analysis as well as other non- momentum

based indicators.

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Chart no:4.1.3 showing Simple Moving Average Curve of

GMR INFRASTRUCTURE from (1-1-2011 to 30-3-2011)

Inference

The chart of GMR INFRASTRUCTURE shows that a large positive divergence formed in

jan-11 and the ROC moved into negative territory just before the large decline and the price

level increase in the month of feb-11and it maintain its curve level. While this was a superb

buy signal changed to sell signal. As with most technical indicators, ROC should be used in

down trend with other aspects or technical analysis as well as other non- momentum based

indicators.

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Pictorial depiction

Chart no:4.1.4 SHOWING SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE CHART OF

BHARTI AIRTEL

(APRIL 2010-MARCH 2011)

Interpretation:

V FORMATION:

It is seen at the end of November. It is a bullish reversal pattern.

Recognition criteria

1. The curve position movement weak in November.

2. It is fall down at the beginning of November and rise in the beginning of December.

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RELIANCE COMMUNICATION LTD


Interpretation:

ASCENDING TRIANGLE:

It is seen at the mid of June. It is a bullish pattern.


1. The curve position strength in the beginning of June.

2. This trend supports the bull operators.

3. The curve recovered at shortly.

Chart no:4.1.6 SHOWING SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE CHART OF IDEA


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Interpretation:

V FORMATION:

It is seen at the beginning of October.


1. The curve position weak in the end September.


3. The curve is reversed in a specified period.

Chart no:4.1.7SHOWING SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE CHART OF

STATE BANK OF INDIA

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Interpretation:

HEAD AND SHOULDER:

It is seen at the beginning of November.


1. The curve position gives support in the beginning of November till January.

2. This trend supports the bear operators.

3. The curve is not stable in a specified period.


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PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK


Interpretation:

HEAD AND SHOULDER:

It is seen at the mid of November. It is a bearish pattern.


1. The curve position weak in beginning of November.


3. The curve is not support the market.

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ICICI BANK LTD


Interpretation:

DESCENDING TRIANGLE:

It is seen at the beginning of November.


1. The curve position weak in the beginning of November.


3. The curve is not reversed in a specified period.

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Chart no:4.1.10 SHOWING SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE CHART OF DLF LTD


Interpretation:

DESCENDING TRIANGLE:

It is seen at the beginning of January. It is a bearish pattern.


1. The curve position weak in January to march.


3. The curve is not reversed in a specified period.

Chart no:4.1.11 SHOWING SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE CHART OFRELIANCE INFRASTRUTURE LTD


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Interpretation:

INVERTED HEAD AND SHOULDER:

It is seen at the mid of july. It indicates the end of bear market and beginning of the

bull market.


1. The curve position slowly fall down.


3. It recovered the position shortly.

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GMR INFRASTRUTURE LTD


Interpretation:

V FORMATION

It is seen at the mid of February. It is a bullish pattern.


1. The curve position is slowly fall down in the February.


3. The curve is reversed in a specified period.

CHAPTER -5

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5.1 FINDINGS

Inference


the RSI falls below thirty it is time to pick up the scrip.If the share price value of Airtel is in

the position of up trend,it gives a clear signal of sell.the term oversold describes a

security or market that has declined to an unreasonably low level.this condition is characeried

by an increase in sales and excess of net declines.

Inference


the RSI falls below thirty it is time to pick up the scrip. If the share price value of reliance

communication is in the position of down trend, it gives a clear signal of buy. The term

overbought describes the price level at which momentum can no longer be maintained and


Inference

The broad rule is, if the RSI crosses seventy three may be downturn and it is time to

sell. If the RSI falls below thirty it is time to pick up the scrip. If the share price value of idea

is in the position of uptrend to down trend, it gives a clear signal of buy. The termoverbought describes the price level at which momentum can no longer be maintained and


INTERPRETATION:

Since the value of R is less than +0.5, it is concluded that there exists a positive

relationship between NSE and SBI . Since r is below +0.5 for an increase in stock return

also.But the increase is not proportionate, it will be less than proportionate. It shows the stock

is moving slower than market movement.

INTERPRETATION:

Since the value of R is 1, it is concluded that there exists a positive relationship

between NSE and PNB. Since r is positive it means that as both value are same (often called

an equal correlation) The result shows that the PNB moves in tandem with the market.

INTERPRETATION:

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Since the value of R is +0.5, it is concluded that there exists a positive

relationship between NSE and ICICI . Since r is +0.5 for an increase in stock return also.But

the increase is not proportionate, it will be less than proportionate. It shows the stock is


Inference

The chart of DLF shows that a large positive divergence formed in jan-11 and the ROC

moved into negative territory just before the large decline. While this was a superb buy signal

changed to sell signal. As with most technical indicators, ROC should be used in down trend

with other aspects or technical analysis as well as other non- momentum based indicators.

Inference

The chart of Reliance Infrastructure shows that a large positive divergence formed in jan-11

and the ROC moved into negative territory just before the large decline. While this was a

superb buy signal changed to sell signal. As with most technical indicators, ROC should be

used in down trend with other aspects or technical analysis as well as other non- momentum

based indicators.

Inference

The chart of GMR INFRASTRUCTURE shows that a large positive divergence formed in

jan-11 and the ROC moved into negative territory just before the large decline and the price

level increase in the month of feb-11and it maintain its curve level. While this was a superb

buy signal changed to sell signal. As with most technical indicators, ROC should be used in

down trend with other aspects or technical analysis as well as other non- momentum based

indicators.

SUGGESSIONS

Based on the correlation the researcher could find that the r value is equal

to 1 for PNB in banking sector. Investor can go for trading in such scrips.

Based on the correlation the researcher could find that roc curve of DLF is

increased at the end. Investor can go for trading in such scrips.

Based on the correlation the researcher could find that RSI of AIRTEL is

increased at the end. Investor can go for trading in such scrips.

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CONCLUSION

5.2 CONCLUSION

This project was mainly carried out to find out Technical

performance of selected script in the share market. It tried to identify impact of

technical performance over the market. It tries to pick out prime stock in

Telecom,infrastructure and bank which having less risk with good return, by

using few tools, obviously BMA wealth creators is one the company to analysis

the shares .

Perhaps a similar study would be conducted in the other sector or other similar

industry in India to sublime and substantiate the result of the study.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

BOOKS

Punithavathy Pandian - Security analysis and portfolio management Vikas

Publication Ltd-2010.

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V. Kevin - Security analysis and portfolio management S.Chand Publication Ltd

1995

JOURNALS

Govert E. Bijwaard Maarten C.W. Janssen*Emiel Maasland, early mover advantage

December 22, 2004.

Damodharan .V. S.* and Rengarajan.V A Projection of Best Emerging Bank in

Sultanate of Oman January 2008

Alexander van der Vooren and Floortje Alkemade,Innovation Studies Group,UtrechtUniversity. The di_usion of infrastructure dependent technologies May 2009

WEBSITES

www.nseindia.com

www.tradersedge.com

www.google.com

www.icharts.com

www.moneycontrol.com

www.stockchart.com

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http://www.nseindia.com/http://www.tradersedge.com/http://www.google.com/http://www.icharts.com/http://www.moneycontrol.com/http://www.stockchart.com/http://www.nseindia.com/http://www.tradersedge.com/http://www.google.com/http://www.icharts.com/http://www.moneycontrol.com/http://www.stockchart.com/


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