Scott W. Tinker, Texas Perspectives: National carbon emissions dropped without federal policy - WacoTrib.com: Guest Columns

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Scott W. Tinker, Texas Perspectives:National carbon emissions droppedwithout federal policy

Posted: Tuesday, October 4, 2016 12:01 am

SCOTT W. TINKER Texas Perspectives

The United States and China recently ratified the Paris Agreement on climate change,

with the Obama administration’s contribution being the Environmental Protection

Agency’s proposed Clean Power Plan — the largest climate-change regulation ever

attempted in the United States — whose legality is currently being argued before the

U.S. Court of Appeals in Washington, D.C.

Unfortunately, the public seems to know little about the Clean Power Plan, a point

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Scott W. Tinker, Texas Perspectives: National carbon emissions dropped without federal policy - WacoTrib.com: Guest Columns

http://www.wacotrib.com/...cott-w-tinker-texas-perspectives-national-carbon-emissions-dropped-without/article_e097258e-6d1d-5dbd-8e8e-bf81995c82ba.html[1/26/2017 2:03:35 PM]

brought home to me recently when I spoke about energy to 200 accountants employed

by one of the largest accounting firms. When I asked the group how many had heard of

the Clean Power Plan, only about 10 people raised their hands.

The plan is being promoted as a means to accelerate a shift away from carbon dioxide-

generating electricity fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas to lower CO2-generating

sources such as wind and solar.

The EPA’s website clearly states the overarching goal: “Nationwide, by 2030, the Clean

Power Plan will help cut carbon emissions from the power sector by 30 percent from

2005 levels, while starting to make progress toward meaningful reductions in 2020.”

Regardless of your perspective on climate and carbon, or on the legalities of the plan,

it is valuable to examine some basic facts: The year 2005, the base year of the Clean

Power Plan, is essentially tied with 2007 for the highest year of CO2 power-sector

emissions in the United States at about 2,400 million metric tons. The 2030 emissions

goal is a 30 percent reduction from 2005, or roughly 1,680 million metric tons.

In 2015, U.S. power-sector emissions were 1,900 million metric tons, already a 20

percent reduction from 2005. In fact, from 2005 to 2015, the United States reduced

CO2 emissions more than any other major economy in the world.

In other words, by 2015, we had already reduced emissions by 20 percent without a

Clean Power Plan or government carbon-price signal. Not only does the 30 percent

goal in the plan not seem very ambitious, it appears misleading to trumpet a 30

percent target when 20 percent has already been achieved.

The 20-percent reduction in CO2 emissions from 2005 to 2015 happened in three

ways: renewable energy such as hydroelectric, wind and solar increased; there was a

recession, which dampened energy demand; and the use of natural gas nearly doubled,

which had the biggest impact.

Natural gas grew quickly because hydraulic fracturing (fracking) of shales created new

supplies, causing natural-gas prices to plummet. If the pace of CO2 reduction from

2005 to 2015 continues to 2030, CO2 emissions would be around 1,300 million metric

tons — a 45 percent reduction from 2005 and substantially lower than the goals of the

Clean Power Plan.

Confused? So am I. Why push for a Clean Power Plan if we are already two-thirds of

the way there and headed — without federal intervention — lower than the ultimate

goal of the plan?

As with most things in energy, politics is involved. Take the proposed EPA rate-based

CO2 reduction burdens recommended by the Clean Power Plan for each state. If you

arrange the states from left to right on a graph, you’ll see that the half on the left with

the least proposed CO2 reduction burden voted 75 percent Democrat in the 2012

presidential race; the half on the right with the greatest burden voted 66 percent

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Scott W. Tinker, Texas Perspectives: National carbon emissions dropped without federal policy - WacoTrib.com: Guest Columns

http://www.wacotrib.com/...cott-w-tinker-texas-perspectives-national-carbon-emissions-dropped-without/article_e097258e-6d1d-5dbd-8e8e-bf81995c82ba.html[1/26/2017 2:03:35 PM]

Discuss Print

Republican.

We should not judge political motivation or intention, but we do need to look at actual

outcomes. Government carbon interventions have not worked very well in other

countries and, in fact they have often had the opposite effect on actual CO2 emissions.

In contrast, the United States has made great progress thus far, even if not

orchestrated, without federal policy or agency rules.

Back in the early 2000s, the Kyoto Protocol — a precursor to the Paris Agreement —

set out a similar goal, but in fact had the reverse impact: CO2 emissions in developed

nations remained essentially flat, but emissions in developing nations increased

sharply.

Nonetheless, some still argue the Clean Power Plan is needed, perhaps on

philosophical or moral grounds. But if the goal is actual reductions in CO2 emissions,

the road to green is not always a federal highway.

Scott W. Tinker is the state geologist of Texas, the directorof the Bureau of Economic Geology and the Allday EndowedChair in the Jackson School of Geosciences at The Universityof Texas at Austin. He worked in the oil and gas industry for17 years.

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Scott W. Tinker, Texas Perspectives: National carbon emissions dropped without federal policy - WacoTrib.com: Guest Columns

http://www.wacotrib.com/...cott-w-tinker-texas-perspectives-national-carbon-emissions-dropped-without/article_e097258e-6d1d-5dbd-8e8e-bf81995c82ba.html[1/26/2017 2:03:35 PM]

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Tuesday, October 4, 2016 12:01 am. | Tags: CO2, EMISSION, CARBON, CLIMATECHANGE, CLEAN POWER PLAN, UNITED STATES, CARBON EMISSIONS

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Rodney H Mabry · Executive Director, Hibbs Institute for Business and economicResesrch at The University of Trxas at TylerWhat a great article. Many economists have often noted that an arm of government willfrequently propose regulations the goal of which would likely be met by industry orothers without the regulation. Those in government frequently just want to take creditfor something. This concept has applied, for example, to certain increases in theminimum wage in the past.Like · Reply · Oct 4, 2016 11:05am

Noble Drew Thomas · Baylor UniversityThe insinuation that the Clean Power Plan is design to hurt red state economies is justfalse. The reason why red states tend to have the highest burden in carbon reductionis because they have the largest emissions. Take Texas for example. It is the largestCO2 emittor.Like · Reply · Oct 4, 2016 4:52pm

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Scott W. Tinker, Texas Perspectives: National carbon emissions dropped without federal policy - WacoTrib.com: Guest Columns

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