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Slide 1 Scope of the PDP-WGNE Workshop, 7-9 July 2010 Slide 1 Scope of the Workshop Thomas Jung, Andy Brown, David Burridge, Christian Jakob and Martin Miller
Transcript of Scope of the Workshop - wmo.int · Slide 2 Scope of the Workshop Discuss diagnostic techniques,...
Slide 1
Scope of the PDP-WGNE Workshop, 7-9 July 2010 Slide 1
Scope of the Workshop
Thomas Jung, Andy Brown, David Burridge, Christian Jakob and
Martin Miller
Slide 2
Scope of the Workshop
Discuss diagnostic techniques,
That could be used to understand the origin of model problems and, therefore,
Aid model development.
Scope of the PDP-WGNE Workshop, 7-9 July 2010 Slide 2
Slide 3
Why should we do this?
Scope of the PDP-WGNE Workshop, 7-9 July 2010 Slide 3
The realism of models is crucial:
• Reanalyses (wide range of users)
• Numerical experimentation (dynamic meteorologists)
• Forecasts (hours to decades)
• Projections (climate change)
• Multi-model ensembles NOT sufficient
Slide 4
Are our models good enough?
Scope of the PDP-WGNE Workshop, 7-9 July 2010 Slide 4
Tropics:
Certainly not!
Where are the main weaknesses?
Extratropics:
Not that clear.
Where are the main weaknesses?
Illustration for the ECMWF model
Slide 5
Madden-Julian Oscillation (DJF)
Joint ICSC-WGNE Session, Offenbach, 3 Nov 2009 Slide 5
Reanalysis T159 T511
T1279 T2047
• Athena project
• ECMWF 36R1
• 13 months forecasts
for 1989-2007
Slide 6
Indian Summer Monsoon
Joint ICSC-WGNE Session, Offenbach, 3 Nov 2009 Slide 6
10.0m/sPrecipitation GPCP (6-8 1989-2007)
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2.0m/sPrecipitation y000-GPCP (6-8 1989-2007)
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-0.5
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10.0m/sTotal Precipitation y000 (6-8 1989-2007)
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2.0m/sTotal Precipitation y001-y000 (6-8 1989-2007)
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-4
-2
-0.5
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10.0m/sTotal Precipitation y001 (6-8 1989-2007)
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2.0m/sTotal Precipitation y002-y001 (6-8 1989-2007)
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10.0m/sTotal Precipitation y002 (6-8 1989-2007)
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2.0m/sTotal Precipitation y003-y002 (6-8 1989-2007)
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-0.5
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T159-GPCP T511-T159
T1279-T511 T2047-T1279
Slide 7
Scope of the PDP-WGNE Workshop, 7-9 July 2010 Slide 7
Systematic Z500 Errors
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
2
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2
2
Z500 Difference 35R1-er40 (12-2 1963-2006)
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
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35R1
-2
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Z500 Difference 33R1-er40 (12-2 1963-2006)
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
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33R1
-2
-2
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Z500 Difference 32R3-er40 (12-2 1963-2006)
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
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32R3
-10
-6
-6
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-6
-2
-2
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-2
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-2
-2
2
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Z500 Difference 31R1-er40 (12-2 1963-2006)
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-6
-4
-2
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31R1
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Z500 Difference 30R1-er40 (12-2 1963-2006)
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-12
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30R1
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Z500 Difference 29R2-er40 (12-2 1963-2006)
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29R2
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Z500 Difference 32R2-er40 (12-2 1963-2006)
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32R2
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-2-2
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Z500 Difference 35R3-er40 (12-2 1963-2006)
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35R3
Jung et al. 2010, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.
Slide 8
Mean Analysis Increments: T DJF 2009/10
Scope of the PDP-WGNE Workshop, 7-9 July 2010 Slide 8
Analysis Increments: Mean T, 2009 DJF, Expver=oper 1, Analysis=dcda. Deep colours = 5% significance
80O
N 60O
N 40O
N 20O
N 0O
20O
S 40O
S 60O
S 80O
S1000
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600
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0.4m/s0.4m/s
Unit = 0.01K
-54 -10 -6 -2 2 6 10 26 -54 -10 -6 -2 2 6 10 26
Slide 9
The Problem
Almost everyone depends on the realism of models,
But model development is left to a very small minority!
Scope of the PDP-WGNE Workshop, 7-9 July 2010 Slide 9
The Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE),
…, has the responsibility of fostering the development of
atmospheric circulation models for use in weather prediction
and climate studies on all time scales and diagnosing and
resolving shortcomings.
WWRP Meso-Scale Forecasting
WCRP/CLIVAR Working Group on Coupled Modelling
WCRP/CLIVAR Working Group on Seasonal Forecasting
Slide 10
What could be done?
Scope of the PDP-WGNE Workshop, 7-9 July 2010 Slide 10
Pure model development (best) done at a few major centres.
However, model development could be supported through
diagnostic studies.
The two components of model error diagnosis:
• Evaluation of models (“The model is too cold!”)
• Understanding the origin of problems (“The model is too
cold, because…!”
Slide 11
What could be done?
Scope of the PDP-WGNE Workshop, 7-9 July 2010 Slide 11
Techniques used to understand the functioning of the
atmosphere could be used for model diagnostic purposes.
Very good understanding of the physics of the atmosphere is
required to identify the origin of model error,
“Seamless diagnostics”
Involve dynamic meteorology community, represented through
the THORPEX working group on Predictability and Dynamical
Processes (PDP)!
Slide 12
Scope of the PDP-WGNE Workshop, 7-9 July 2010 Slide 12
Understanding Local and Global Impacts of
Model Physics Changes: An Aerosol Example
Rodwell and Jung (2008), Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.
A feast for dynamicists.
Various atmospheric processes were involved.
It was crucial to
• look at different physical processes (tendencies),
• study the response on a variety of time scales
(transient response),
• consider “local” and “remote” aspects.
Slide 13
Scope of the PDP-WGNE Workshop, 7-9 July 2010 Slide 13
Transient Response to New Convection Scheme
Jung et al. 2010, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.
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a D+1
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b D+2-D+10
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1020
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cD+11-D+3
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d D+31-D+120
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Slide 14
Scope of the PDP-WGNE Workshop, 7-9 July 2010 Slide 14
RMSE Z500: Impact of Convection Scheme
(a) MAE D+1-D+4 Z500 f6wi
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(b) MAE D+1-D+4 Z500 f6ws
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(c) MAE D+1-D+4 Z500 f6ws-f6wi
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(a) MAE D+5-D+10 Z500 f6wi
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90
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(b) MAE D+5-D+10 Z500 f6ws
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(c) MAE D+5-D+10 Z500 f6ws-f6wi
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-12.5
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-7.5
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-2.5
2.5
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12.5
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D+1 to D+4 D+5 to D+10
Old-new convection
≈10-20% ≈10%
Slide 15
Scope of the PDP-WGNE Workshop, 7-9 July 2010 Slide 15
Transient Response to New Radiation Scheme
0.5
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a D+1
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b D+2-D+10
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-10
c D+11-D+30
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d D+31-D+120
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Jung et al. 2010, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.
Slide 16
Scope of the PDP-WGNE Workshop, 7-9 July 2010 Slide 16
(a) MAE D+6-D+10 Z500 DJF
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-2.5
2.5
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(b) MAE D+6-D+10 Z500 MAM
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(c) MAE D+6-D+10 Z500 JJA
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(d) MAE D+6-D+10 Z500 SON
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Impact of Tropical Relaxation: D+6-D+10
DJF
JJA
MAM
SON
Slide 17
(a) Observed
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(b) CNT Ensemble
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(c) TROP Ensemble
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(d) NH-S Ensemble
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AOPP Seminar, Oxford University, 10 June 2010 Slide 17
Z500 Anomalies: DJF 2009/10
Observed Control
Tropics NH Stratosphere
Slide 18
AOPP Seminar, Oxford University, 10 June 2010 Slide 18
(a) Observed
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(b) CNT Ensemble
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(c) TROP Ensemble
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(d) NH-S Ensemble
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Z500 Anomalies: DJF 2005/06
Observed Control
Tropics NH Stratosphere
Slide 19
Scope of the Workshop: Presentations
Bringing together the model development and dynamic meteorology communities.
Review our knowledge of atmospheric processes and their relevance for forecast errors.
Observational experiments.
Review developments and challenges in model development.
Review existing diagnostic techniques.
Scope of the PDP-WGNE Workshop, 7-9 July 2010 Slide 19
Difficult to cover all areas, processes etc.
Slide 20
Scope of the Workshop: Discussions
Model diagnosis
Relevant processes (Do we know them? How can they be diagnosed?)
Further development of existing techniques
New techniques (requirements)
Observations (field campaigns)
Special data sets (YOTC)
Diagnosis of high impact weather events.
Future activities
Joint follow-on projects (collaborative PDP-WGNE projects)
How do we establish a community (future meetings)?
Preparation of a “status paper”?
Scope of the PDP-WGNE Workshop, 7-9 July 2010 Slide 20
Slide 21
Scope of the Workshop: Discussions
Recommendations
To WWRP and THORPEX
To WCRP
Related to current and future activities – for example T-NAWDEX
Scope of the PDP-WGNE Workshop, 7-9 July 2010 Slide 21
Slide 22
Thank you!
