Scope of the Workshop - wmo.int · Slide 2 Scope of the Workshop Discuss diagnostic techniques,...

22
Slide 1 Scope of the PDP-WGNE Workshop, 7-9 July 2010 Slide 1 Scope of the Workshop Thomas Jung, Andy Brown, David Burridge, Christian Jakob and Martin Miller

Transcript of Scope of the Workshop - wmo.int · Slide 2 Scope of the Workshop Discuss diagnostic techniques,...

Slide 1

Scope of the PDP-WGNE Workshop, 7-9 July 2010 Slide 1

Scope of the Workshop

Thomas Jung, Andy Brown, David Burridge, Christian Jakob and

Martin Miller

Slide 2

Scope of the Workshop

Discuss diagnostic techniques,

That could be used to understand the origin of model problems and, therefore,

Aid model development.

Scope of the PDP-WGNE Workshop, 7-9 July 2010 Slide 2

Slide 3

Why should we do this?

Scope of the PDP-WGNE Workshop, 7-9 July 2010 Slide 3

The realism of models is crucial:

• Reanalyses (wide range of users)

• Numerical experimentation (dynamic meteorologists)

• Forecasts (hours to decades)

• Projections (climate change)

• Multi-model ensembles NOT sufficient

Slide 4

Are our models good enough?

Scope of the PDP-WGNE Workshop, 7-9 July 2010 Slide 4

Tropics:

Certainly not!

Where are the main weaknesses?

Extratropics:

Not that clear.

Where are the main weaknesses?

Illustration for the ECMWF model

Slide 5

Madden-Julian Oscillation (DJF)

Joint ICSC-WGNE Session, Offenbach, 3 Nov 2009 Slide 5

Reanalysis T159 T511

T1279 T2047

• Athena project

• ECMWF 36R1

• 13 months forecasts

for 1989-2007

Slide 6

Indian Summer Monsoon

Joint ICSC-WGNE Session, Offenbach, 3 Nov 2009 Slide 6

10.0m/sPrecipitation GPCP (6-8 1989-2007)

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

2.0m/sPrecipitation y000-GPCP (6-8 1989-2007)

-10

-4

-2

-0.5

0.5

2

4

10

10.0m/sTotal Precipitation y000 (6-8 1989-2007)

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

2.0m/sTotal Precipitation y001-y000 (6-8 1989-2007)

-10

-4

-2

-0.5

0.5

2

4

10

10.0m/sTotal Precipitation y001 (6-8 1989-2007)

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

2.0m/sTotal Precipitation y002-y001 (6-8 1989-2007)

-10

-4

-2

-0.5

0.5

2

4

10

10.0m/sTotal Precipitation y002 (6-8 1989-2007)

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

2.0m/sTotal Precipitation y003-y002 (6-8 1989-2007)

-10

-4

-2

-0.5

0.5

2

4

10

T159-GPCP T511-T159

T1279-T511 T2047-T1279

Slide 7

Scope of the PDP-WGNE Workshop, 7-9 July 2010 Slide 7

Systematic Z500 Errors

-2

-2

-2

-2

-2

2

2

2

2

Z500 Difference 35R1-er40 (12-2 1963-2006)

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

35R1

-2

-2

2

2

2

Z500 Difference 33R1-er40 (12-2 1963-2006)

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

33R1

-2

-2

2

2

2

2

2

2

Z500 Difference 32R3-er40 (12-2 1963-2006)

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

32R3

-10

-6

-6

-6

-6

-2

-2

-2

-2

-2

-2

-2

-2

2

2

2

2

2

2

Z500 Difference 31R1-er40 (12-2 1963-2006)

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

31R1

-6

-6

-6

-6

-6

-2

-2

-2

-2

-2

-2

-2

-2

2

2

2

2

6

Z500 Difference 30R1-er40 (12-2 1963-2006)

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

30R1

-6

-6

-6

-6

-6

-2

-2

-2-2

-2

-2

-2

-2

-2

2

2

2

2

2

6

Z500 Difference 29R2-er40 (12-2 1963-2006)

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

29R2

-6

-6

-6

-6

-2

-2

-2

-2

-2

-2

-2

-2

-2

2

2

2

2

2

2

6

6

Z500 Difference 32R2-er40 (12-2 1963-2006)

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

32R2

-2

-2

-2-2

-2

-2

-2

-2

-2

2

2

2

2

Z500 Difference 35R3-er40 (12-2 1963-2006)

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

35R3

Jung et al. 2010, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.

Slide 8

Mean Analysis Increments: T DJF 2009/10

Scope of the PDP-WGNE Workshop, 7-9 July 2010 Slide 8

Analysis Increments: Mean T, 2009 DJF, Expver=oper 1, Analysis=dcda. Deep colours = 5% significance

80O

N 60O

N 40O

N 20O

N 0O

20O

S 40O

S 60O

S 80O

S1000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0.4m/s0.4m/s

Unit = 0.01K

-54 -10 -6 -2 2 6 10 26 -54 -10 -6 -2 2 6 10 26

Slide 9

The Problem

Almost everyone depends on the realism of models,

But model development is left to a very small minority!

Scope of the PDP-WGNE Workshop, 7-9 July 2010 Slide 9

The Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE),

…, has the responsibility of fostering the development of

atmospheric circulation models for use in weather prediction

and climate studies on all time scales and diagnosing and

resolving shortcomings.

WWRP Meso-Scale Forecasting

WCRP/CLIVAR Working Group on Coupled Modelling

WCRP/CLIVAR Working Group on Seasonal Forecasting

Slide 10

What could be done?

Scope of the PDP-WGNE Workshop, 7-9 July 2010 Slide 10

Pure model development (best) done at a few major centres.

However, model development could be supported through

diagnostic studies.

The two components of model error diagnosis:

• Evaluation of models (“The model is too cold!”)

• Understanding the origin of problems (“The model is too

cold, because…!”

Slide 11

What could be done?

Scope of the PDP-WGNE Workshop, 7-9 July 2010 Slide 11

Techniques used to understand the functioning of the

atmosphere could be used for model diagnostic purposes.

Very good understanding of the physics of the atmosphere is

required to identify the origin of model error,

“Seamless diagnostics”

Involve dynamic meteorology community, represented through

the THORPEX working group on Predictability and Dynamical

Processes (PDP)!

Slide 12

Scope of the PDP-WGNE Workshop, 7-9 July 2010 Slide 12

Understanding Local and Global Impacts of

Model Physics Changes: An Aerosol Example

Rodwell and Jung (2008), Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.

A feast for dynamicists.

Various atmospheric processes were involved.

It was crucial to

• look at different physical processes (tendencies),

• study the response on a variety of time scales

(transient response),

• consider “local” and “remote” aspects.

Slide 13

Scope of the PDP-WGNE Workshop, 7-9 July 2010 Slide 13

Transient Response to New Convection Scheme

Jung et al. 2010, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.

0

1

a D+1

0

5

0

b D+2-D+10

-10

1020

0

0

cD+11-D+3

-30 -20

-20

-10

-10

-10

0

0

0

0

10

10

20

20

30

d D+31-D+120

0.5

0

Slide 14

Scope of the PDP-WGNE Workshop, 7-9 July 2010 Slide 14

RMSE Z500: Impact of Convection Scheme

(a) MAE D+1-D+4 Z500 f6wi

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

36

40

(b) MAE D+1-D+4 Z500 f6ws

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

36

40

(c) MAE D+1-D+4 Z500 f6ws-f6wi

-4

-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

4

(a) MAE D+5-D+10 Z500 f6wi

15

30

45

60

75

90

105

120

135

150

(b) MAE D+5-D+10 Z500 f6ws

15

30

45

60

75

90

105

120

135

150

(c) MAE D+5-D+10 Z500 f6ws-f6wi

-20

-15

-12.5

-10

-7.5

-5

-2.5

2.5

5

7.5

10

12.5

15

20

D+1 to D+4 D+5 to D+10

Old-new convection

≈10-20% ≈10%

Slide 15

Scope of the PDP-WGNE Workshop, 7-9 July 2010 Slide 15

Transient Response to New Radiation Scheme

0.5

10

301

a D+1

0

5

b D+2-D+10

0

0

0

10

-10

c D+11-D+30

20

d D+31-D+120

20

10

Jung et al. 2010, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.

Slide 16

Scope of the PDP-WGNE Workshop, 7-9 July 2010 Slide 16

(a) MAE D+6-D+10 Z500 DJF

-30

-20

-10

-2.5

2.5

10

20

30

(b) MAE D+6-D+10 Z500 MAM

-30

-20

-10

-2.5

2.5

10

20

30

(c) MAE D+6-D+10 Z500 JJA

-30

-20

-10

-2.5

2.5

10

20

30

(d) MAE D+6-D+10 Z500 SON

-30

-20

-10

-2.5

2.5

10

20

30

Impact of Tropical Relaxation: D+6-D+10

DJF

JJA

MAM

SON

Slide 17

(a) Observed

-210

-180

-150

-120

-90

-60

-30

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

(b) CNT Ensemble

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

(c) TROP Ensemble

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

(d) NH-S Ensemble

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

AOPP Seminar, Oxford University, 10 June 2010 Slide 17

Z500 Anomalies: DJF 2009/10

Observed Control

Tropics NH Stratosphere

Slide 18

AOPP Seminar, Oxford University, 10 June 2010 Slide 18

(a) Observed

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

(b) CNT Ensemble

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

(c) TROP Ensemble

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

(d) NH-S Ensemble

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Z500 Anomalies: DJF 2005/06

Observed Control

Tropics NH Stratosphere

Slide 19

Scope of the Workshop: Presentations

Bringing together the model development and dynamic meteorology communities.

Review our knowledge of atmospheric processes and their relevance for forecast errors.

Observational experiments.

Review developments and challenges in model development.

Review existing diagnostic techniques.

Scope of the PDP-WGNE Workshop, 7-9 July 2010 Slide 19

Difficult to cover all areas, processes etc.

Slide 20

Scope of the Workshop: Discussions

Model diagnosis

Relevant processes (Do we know them? How can they be diagnosed?)

Further development of existing techniques

New techniques (requirements)

Observations (field campaigns)

Special data sets (YOTC)

Diagnosis of high impact weather events.

Future activities

Joint follow-on projects (collaborative PDP-WGNE projects)

How do we establish a community (future meetings)?

Preparation of a “status paper”?

Scope of the PDP-WGNE Workshop, 7-9 July 2010 Slide 20

Slide 21

Scope of the Workshop: Discussions

Recommendations

To WWRP and THORPEX

To WCRP

Related to current and future activities – for example T-NAWDEX

Scope of the PDP-WGNE Workshop, 7-9 July 2010 Slide 21

Slide 22

Thank you!