Scientific updates on current emissionsand sinks of greenhouse gases and

implications for future emissions pathways

Dr Richard A. Houghton, Woods Hole Research Center

with contributions from the Global Carbon Project, C. Le Quéré, G. Marland, J. Hackler, T. Boden, J. Canadell, P. Friedlingstein,

T. Conway, M. Raupach, P. Ciais and others.

slides available on www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget

relative contribution of different greenhouse gases

NOAA-ESRL http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/

Radia

tivef

orcin

g sinc

e 175

0 (W

/m2 )

CH4 (18%)

CO2 (64%)

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

The contributionof CO2 to totalanthropogenic

greenhouse gasesis growing

1

2

3

Time (y)

N2O (6%)Other gases

Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from fossil fuel burning

Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions

CDIAC; Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience

CO2

emiss

ions (

Pg C

y-1)

1990-19991 % per year

2000-20092.5 % per year

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

2009:Emissions: 8.4 PgC

(30.5 Gt CO2)Growth rate: -1.3%

6

7

8

9

Time (y)

Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions

CDIAC; Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience

CO2

emiss

ions (

Pg C

y-1)

Non Annex BEmerging Economies

& Developing Countries

Annex B (Kyoto protocol)Industrial Nations

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

most of the growthin global emissions

originates from emerging economies

2

3

4

5

Time (y)

Time (y)

Top Emitters

1990 1995 2005 201020000

400

800

1200

1600

2000CO

2Em

ission

s(m

illion

tons

C/y)

China

USA

Japan

Russian Fed.India

Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Tom Boden- CDIAC 2010

per capita (2007)ton C per person

1.4 (China)

5.2 (USA)

0.4 (India)

Davis & Caldeira 2010, PNAS; See also Peters & Hertwich 2008, Environ, Sci & Tech.

From dominant net exporting countries (blue) to dominant net importing countries (red).

Fluxes of Emissions Embodied in Trade (Mt CO2 y-1)

Year 2004

Global CO2 emissionsnow dominated by coal

Coal emits more CO2than liquids or gas

CDIAC; Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience

CO2

emiss

ions (

Pg C

y-1)

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

1

2

3

Time (y)

Coal

Liquids

Gas

Cement production

40%

36%

CO2 Emissions by Fossil Fuel Type

Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions

2010:Projected

growth rate: >3 %

Based on 4.8 % projected growth in GDP by the IMF,

and -1.7 % improvementin carbon intensityof the economy.

CDIAC; Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience

CO2

emiss

ions (

Pg C

y-1)

1990 1995 2000 2005 20106

7

8

9

Time (y)

Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions compared to IPCC Marker scenarios used for climate projections

2000-2009 growthrates are at the high end

of the emissions scenarios used by the IPCC to project

climate change

IPCC range: 1.6 - 6.9 °C above pre-industrial in 2100

Updated from Le Quéré et al (2009) Nature Geoscience, using Marker scenariosmodified from Raupach et al. PNAS (2007)

CO2

emiss

ions (

Pg C

y-1)

1990 1995 2000 2005 20106

7

8

9

Time (y)

Emissions of CO2 from deforestation and other Land Use Change (LUC)

CO2 Emissions from deforestationand other Land Use Change

Estimated ~25% decrease between

the two decadeswith large uncertainty

WHRC; Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience

CO2

emiss

ions (

Pg C

y-1)

1990 1995 2000 2005 20100

1

2

31990-19991.5±0.7

2000-20091.1±0.7

Time (y)

-400-200

0200400600800

10001200140016001800

1850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Tropical

Temperate

Regional Emissions from Land Use Change

R.A. Houghton 2010, personal communication

CO2

emiss

ions (

PgC

y-1)

Both tropical and temperate LUC

recently decreasing

Temperate LUC could now be a small

CO2 sink

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Latin America

S & SE Asia

Tropical Africa

CO2

emiss

ions (

Pg C

y-1)

Satellite data for Brazil and

Indonesia supportrecent LUC trends

Regional Emissions from Land Use Change

R.A. Houghton 2010, personal communication

Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience

Total CO2 Emissions (1960-2009)

CO2

emiss

ions (

PgC

y-1)

Fossil fuel

Land use change

10

8

6

4

2

1960 20101970 1990 20001980LUC emissions now

~10% of total CO2 emissions

Fate of CO2 emissions

Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2000-2009)

Global Carbon Project (2010), updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

1.1 PgC y-1

+7.7 PgC y-1

2.4 PgC y-1

27%

4.1 PgC y-1

47%

26%2.3 PgC y-1

Source: NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory

Atmospheric CO2concentration in Sept

2010: 389.2 ppm

Atmospheric CH4concentration increased for the third year in a row after

being stable for 10 year.

The cause of the recent increased is unknown.

Greenhouse gas concentration (1978-2010)

CO2(ppm)

CH4(ppb)

Implications of recent trends for future emissions pathways

Meinshausen et al. Nature 2009

Glob

al air

temp

eratu

re (°

C)

1900 2000 2100

time (y)

7°C (12.6°F)

2°C (3.6°F)

25% probability of exceeding 2°C:

no more than 185 PgC(677 billion ton CO2)

emitted until 2050

50% probability of exceeding 2°C:

no more than 305 PgC(1120 billion ton CO2)

emitted until 2050

Emission scenarios consistent with 2°C limit

• Canadell JG et al. (2007) Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks. PNAS 104: 18866–18870, http://www.pnas.org/content/104/47/18866.abstract

• Carbon Dioxide Information Analyses Center (CDIAC). http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/meth_reg.html

• International Monetary Fund (2010) World economic outlook. October 2010.http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/02/

• Friedlingstein P, Houghton RA, Marland G, Hackler J, Boden TA, Conway TJ, Canadell JG, Raupach MR, Ciais P, Le Quéré C. Update on CO2 emissions. Nature Geoscience, Online 21 November 2010.

• Global Carbon Project (2010) Carbon budget and trends 2009. http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget

• Le Quéré C, Raupach MR, Canadell JG, Marland G et al. (2009) Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide. Nature geosciences, doi: 10.1038/ngeo689.

• Meinshausen et al. (2009). Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2C. Nature, 458 1158-1163.

• Peters GP, Hertwich E G (2008) CO2 embodied in international trade with implications for global climate policy. Environmental Science and Technology 42: 1401-1407.

• Raupach MR et al. (2007) Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 14: 10288-10293.http://www.pnas.org/content/104/24/10288

• Tans P, Conway T (2010) Trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide. NOAA/ESRL www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends

References cited in this ppt

www.globalcarbonproject.org

Total CO2 emissions

Atmosphere

Data: NOAA, CDIAC; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience

CO2

Partit

ioning

(PgC

y-1)

Key Diagnostic of the Carbon Cycle

1960 20101970 1990 20001980

10

8

6

4

2

Modelled Natural CO2 Sinks

Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience

Land

sin

k (P

gC/y

)O

cean

sin

k (P

gC/y

)

Time (y)

1960 20101970 1990 20001980

0

2

-2

-4

-6

1960 20101970 1990 20001980

0

2

-2

-4

-6

Top 20 CO2 Emitters & Per Capita Emissions 2009

Global Carbon Project 2010; Population World Bank 2010; CDIAC 2010

0

50

100

150

200

250

CHINAUSAINDIA

RUSSIAJAPAN

GERMANYIRAN

SOUTH KOREACANADA

UNITED KINGDOMMEXICO

SAUDI ARABIA

SOUTH AFRICAINDONESIA

ITALYBRAZIL

AUSTRALIA

FRANCE (inl. M

onaco)

POLAND

SPAIN

0

1

2

3

4

5

6To

tal C

O 2em

ission

s (x1

0,000

PgC

y-1)

Per Capita Emissions(tonnes C person

-1y -1)