2009 GLOBAL SUMMITScience Consultants Report

Ryan BoodeeNguyen LeYing Zhang

Jack DaiAndy Liu

MODELING/ITGENERAL INFORMATION

WHAT WE DO

Provide a critical piece of information for your decision-making process by running your proposed wedges through our carbon cycle model to provide you with information on how your policy changes the expected amount of carbon in the atmosphere.

Address all other modeling-related concerns.

THE MODEL

To view model files, you must have STELLA on your computer. You can find STELLA on Moodle on the software page.

HOW DOES IT WORK?

There are three sectors for carbon emissions. Commercial(-c-) Residential(-r-) Transportation(-t-)

Each Sector is divided into: Fraction of power supplied by coal/oil/hydro/etc.

(Fcc)- Fraction of commercial power supplied by coal Efficiency of power generation with coal/oil/etc.

(Efro)- Efficiency of residential power generation with oil

WHAT WE NEED FROM YOU!

What we want in a request: Your proposed wedges expressed as numerically as

possible. i.e. 30% increase use of oil, 20% decrease use of

nuclear

What we don’t want in a request: Your wedges, the Sparknotes version i.e. Increase use of nuclear power.

We absolutely need to know how much in order to complete your model request.

MODELING DISCLAIMER The model is not sophisticated enough to take into account every nation. The simulation of proposed wedges is run on a model-defined default nation, and all

results are based on changes to the default nation.

In layman’s terms, the simulation is not run on your country. It is run on an imaginary country defined by the model itself.

If you are not satisfied with running your simulation on the imaginary country, please provide all the parameters required by the model for your country. Our personnel will be more than happy to discuss this process with you in greater detail on a case-by-case basis.

REQUESTING A MODEL Please request your models in the Discussion of the

Modeling and IT section of the Wikispaces page.

Each model request should have its own thread. Do NOT request a model in someone else’s thread.

We look forward to working with you.

Kkthxbai

HOW TO USE THE ENERGY WEDGE GUIDANCE TOOLS

GUIDE TO ENERGY WEDGES

ENERGY WEDGES

Broken down into four general groups: Efficiency

Buildings, vehicles, etc. De-carbonization of Power

Baseload Carbon Capture Wind Power

De-carbonization of Fuel Wind H2 in Fuel Cell Cars Biomass Fuel

Forests and Agricultural soils Reforestation, reduce deforestation

HOW DO WE GET THERE?

Demo Step by Step: http://2009summit.wikispaces.com/

SO MANY TO PICK FROM! Each section is divided up into general regions, so

just pick your region, narrow it down to your country, and apply the wedge

BLACK CARBON – THE 16TH WEDGE

•black carbon has emerged as an important No. 2 pollutant responsible for warming •Responsible for 18 percent of the planet’s warming, compared with 40 percent for carbon dioxide.

•Decreasing black carbon emissions would be a relatively cheap way to significantly rein in global warming — especially in the short term

•Replacing primitive cooking stoves with modern versions that emit far less soot could provide a much-needed stopgap

CONSIDER THE FUTURE WHEN NEGOTIATING WEDGE AGREEMENTS

CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS

Phenomena Likelihood of trend

• Contraction of snow cover areas• Increased thaw in permafrost regions• Decrease in sea ice extent

Virtually certain

• Increased frequency of hot extremes• heat waves and heavy precipitation

Very likely to occur

Increase in tropical cyclone intensity Likely to occur

Precipitation increases in high latitudes Very likely to occur

Precipitation decreases in subtropical land regions Very likely to occur

Decreased water resources in many semi-arid areas including western U.S. and Mediterranean basin

High confidence

Global Climate Change: General Future Trends  

Definitions of likelihood ranges used to express the assessed probability of occurrence: virtually certain >99%, very likely >90%, likely >66%.

KEY CHALLENGES FROM CLIMATE CHANGE

Environmental Health

Extreme weather and Sea level rise – salinization

of coastal water systems, flooding

Environmental degradation – land, coastal ecosystems, extinctions, fisheries collapse and loss of productivity

Human Health

Forced population displacements - due to weather, flooding, water supply and coastal changes

Thermal stress – cyclones, bush fires and effects of food supplies

Disease -Microbial Proliferation and

Changes in host-vector relationships and in infectious disease ranges

Impaired food production

SHARING THE BURDEN AND THE REWARDS

PARTNERSHIPS & CDMS

Under Kyoto Protocol Complete a Project Cycle to be certified

as a CDM Link between developed and

developing countries: Pollution Outsourcing Helps developing countries get on the right

track, allows developed countries to meet emission requirements without compromising industry

EXAMPLES

Africa Coal power versus carbon capture, reforestation,

photovoltaic cells Several European countries investing in developing

countries United Kingdom 42 biomass projects in Malaysia, China, India, Thailand,

and Brazil In addition, 59 wind power, 39 gas and heat North America Pollution mitigation, energy industries Nuclear power, eliminate deforestation, research

Low-tech versus high-tech Planting trees (currently excluded from

Kyoto) Composting

Ventilation Air Methane Combustion System

Hydropower Projects

CDM PROJECTIONS

http://www.ren21.net/pdf/virtual_lib_local/CDM-EE-Netz.pdf