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![Page 1: Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING vechta.de 1 Prof. Dr. Hans-Wilhelm Windhorst -Scientific Director- (WING,](https://reader037.fdocuments.net/reader037/viewer/2022110103/56649c715503460f9492294f/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING www.wing-vechta.de 1
Prof. Dr. Hans-Wilhelm Windhorst-Scientific Director-
(WING, University of Vechta, Germany)
Patterns and Dynamics of Global andEuropean Egg Production and Trade
Paper presented at theTurkish Egg Summit
in AntalyaNovember 1st, 2013
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Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING www.wing-vechta.de 2
AGENDA
1. The globalization of egg production an egg trade
2. The banning of conventional cages in the EU (27) and impacts on egg production and egg trade
4. Challenges for the global and European egg industry
5. Results and perspectives
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Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING www.wing-vechta.de 3
1.
The dynamics of global egg production
and egg trade
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Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING www.wing-vechta.de
What is globalisation?
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Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING www.wing-vechta.de
Globalisation understood as the global organisation of production and trade describes:
• an ongoing process, • the growing interdependence and linkage of countries,• the increasing mobility of goods, services and capital,• the reduction of transaction costs,• the standardisation of products,• the dissemination of technologies,• and the growing importance of new communication technologies.
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Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING www.wing-vechta.de
The globalisation of egg production
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Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING www.wing-vechta.de
The development of global egg production between 1970 and 2010
FAO
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Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING www.wing-vechta.de
Development of global egg production between 1990 and 2010
WING
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Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING www.wing-vechta.de
Continent 1970 1990 2011 Increase (%)
AfricaAsiaEuropeN America*CS AmericaOceania
5924,6308,2904,7311,055242
1,54413,65011,6635,3622,631244
2,64938,22910,6398,3164,892278
347.5725.328.375.8
363.714.9
World 19,541 35,094 65,003 232.6
The development of global egg production between 1970 and 2011 by continents
FAO
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Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING www.wing-vechta.de
FAO
The changing contribution of the continents to global egg production between 1970 and 2011
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Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING www.wing-vechta.de
Continent 1970 1990 2011 Change (%)
AfricaAsiaEuropeN America*CS AmericaOceania
4.117.136.933.37.61.0
5.224.328.728.312.31.3
4.158.816.412.87.50.4
+/- 0+ 41.7- 20.5- 20.5- 0.1- 0.6
World 100.0 100.0 100.0 -
The changing contribution of the continents to globalegg production between 1970 and 2011
FAO
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1970 2011
Country Production(1,000 t)
Share(%)
Country Production(1,000 t)
Share(%)
USAUSSRJapanChinaGermanyUn. Kingd.FranceItalySpainPoland
4,0532,2481,7661,5331,162892658606464389
20.711.59.07.85.94.63.43.12.42.0
ChinaUSAIndiaJapanMexicoRussiaBrazilIndonesiaUkraineFrance
24,1495,4193,4902,4832,4592,2842,0371,1661,064840
37.28.35.43.83.83.53.11.81.61.3
10 countries 13,771 70.5 10 countries
45,391 69.8
World 19,541 100.0 World 65,003 100.0
FAO
The ten leading countries in global egg productionin 1970 and 2011
Turkey: 810 = 1,2 %
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The ten leading EU (27) member countries in egg Production in 2000 and 2012; data in 1,000 t
2000 2012
Country Production Share (%) Country Production Share (%)
France 1.038 15,7 Spain 862 12.3
Germany 901 13,6 France 856 12.2
Italy 686 10,4 Germany 824 11.7
Netherlands 668 10,1 Un. Kingd. 699 9.9
Spain 658 9,9 Netherlands 698 9.9
Un. Kingd. 569 8,6 Austria 691 9.8
6 countries 4.521 68,3 6 countries 4,630 65.8
EU (27) 6.616 100,0 EU (27) 7,033 100.0
FAO, MEG 2013
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Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING www.wing-vechta.de
Country Absolute increase(1,000 t)
Share (%) ofglobal increase
Country Relative Increase(%)
ChinaIndiaUSAMexicoIndonesiaBrazilIran TurkeyPakistanNigeriaColombiaSouth AfricaEgyptMalaysiaMyanmar
17,2662,2171,3781,372753718446355337286274260257248245
60.27.74.84.82.62.51.61.21.21.01.00.90.90.90.9
ParaguayLaoChinaGhanaYemenGuatemalaViet NamTurkmenistanBangladeshIndonesiaGuineaIndiaPeruKuwaitEgypt
280.0274.6263.2255.1250.9237.0232.1212.5207.1206.8194.3191.0189.2187.5181.5
15 countries 26,412 92.1 15 countries -
World 28,688 100.0 World 81.7
Countries with the highest increase in egg production between 1990 and 2010
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Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING www.wing-vechta.de
Countries with the highest decrease in egg production between 1990 and 2010
Country Absolute decrease(1,000 t)
Country Relative decrease(%)
GermanyRussia*HungaryRomaniaIraqBulgariaBelgiumCzech Rep.**GreeceEstonia*CubaFinlandAustraliaKyrgistan*Slovakia**
323124108874646363323171615141210
EstoniaIraqHungaryKyrgistan**BulgariaGermanyRomaniaCzech Rep.FinlandBelgiumGreeceCubaSlovakia**AustraliaDenmark
59.856.141.636.834.032.822.721.219.518.918.512.912.07.47.3
15 countries 910 15 countries -
World 951 World -
* 1992 ** 1993 FAO
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Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING www.wing-vechta.de
Results:
• Global egg production increased by 44.2 mill. t between 1970 and 2011 and reached a production volume of 65.0 mill. t.
• Asia was the big winner whereas Europe and North America lost considerable shares in the analysed time period. In 2011, Asian countries contributed 58.8 % to the global production volume. • European countries lost their leading position in 1988 to Asian countries.
• Despite a considerable increase in their production volume, North American countries could not maintain their share of 1970.
• The contribution of Africa and Central and South America to global egg production remained fairly stable between 1990 and 2010.
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Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING www.wing-vechta.de
The globalisation of egg trade
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Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING www.wing-vechta.de
Development of global egg exports between 1970 and 2010
FAO
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Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING www.wing-vechta.de
Development of global egg imports between 1970 and 2010
FAO
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Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING www.wing-vechta.de
Exports
Continent 1970 1990 2010 Change (%)
AfricaAsiaEuropeN America*CS AmericaOceania
1.014.179.73.70.70.7
0.211.283.04.61.00.0
0.526.567.04.61.10.2
- 0.5+ 12.4- 12.7+ 0.9+ 0.4- 0.5
World **100.0 100.0 **100.0 -
Imports
AfricaAsiaEuropeN America*CS AmericaOceania
0.821.271.54.81.80.3
1.520.972.83.21.50.1
3.229.363.32.21.80.2
+ 2.4+ 8.1- 8.2- 2.6+/- 0- 0.1
World **100.0 100.0 100.0 -
The changing contribution of the continents to global egg trade
FAO, own calculations
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Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING www.wing-vechta.de
Development of egg exports between 1990 and 2010 and exports by countries (2010)
FAO
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Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING www.wing-vechta.de
1970 2010
Country 1,000 t Share (%) Country 1,000 t Share (%)
BelgiumNetherlandsChinaBulgariaHungaryPolandDenmarkRomaniaFinlandLebanon
88803428232219171715
21.819.88.46.95.75.44.74.24.23.7
NetherlandsPolandTurkeySpainGermanyChinaMalaysiaUSABelgiumSyria
60315313212311510189867876
29.87.66.56.15.75.04.44.33.93.8
10 countries 343 *84.9 10 countries 1,556 77.0
World 404 100.0 World 2,021 100.0
The ten leading egg exporting countries in 1970 and 2010
FAO
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Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING www.wing-vechta.de
Development of egg imports between 1990 and 2010 and imports by countries (2010)
FAO
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Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING www.wing-vechta.de
The ten leading egg importing countries in 1970 and 2010
FAO
1970 2010
Country 1,000 t Share (%) Country 1,000 t Share (%)
GermanyHong KongUSSRFranceSwitzerlandAustriaUSANetherlandsUn.Kingd.Italy
127453325241914131110
32.011.38.36.36.04.83.53.32.82.5
GermanyIraqNetherlandsHong KongSingaporeBelgiumFranceItalyUn. Kingd.Switzerland
48219916995766154403634
28.811.910.15.74.53.63.22.42.22.0
10 countries 321 *80.9 10 countries 1,246 74.4
World 397 100.0 World 1,674 100.0
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Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING www.wing-vechta.de
Balance of trade with shell eggs by countries (2010)
FAO, own calculations
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Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING www.wing-vechta.de
The fifteen countries with the highest positive and negative balance of trade with shell eggs in 2010
Country Surplus (t) Country Deficit (t)
NetherlandsPolandTurkeySpainChinaMalaysiaUSASyriaSaudi ArabiaIndiaBelarusIranBelgiumUkraineBrazil
434,580133,606130,762117,748100,81289,11182,66276,21839,25034,71732,39920,24417,42314,67113,808
GermanyIraqHong KongSingaporeSwitzerlandUn. KingdomCanadaAngolaQatarAustriaCzech Rep.Un. Arab Em.ItalyAfghanistanLibya
366,434199,48294,63175,76634,32429,31622,33819,04617,59116,31915,50614,34012,2129,3619,084
Own Calculations
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Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING www.wing-vechta.de
2.
The banning of conventional cages
for laying hens in the EU (27)
and impacts on egg production and egg trade
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Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING www.wing-vechta.de 28
On July 19th, 1999 the EU Commission passed:COUNCIL DIRECTIVE 1999/74/EClaying down minimum standards for the protection of laying hens.
•The directive decided that:
- From January 1st, 2012 on all cages will be prohibited.
- From January 1st, 2003 on no such cages must be installed in EU member countries.
- Member countries may decide to ban cages earlier and to tighten regulations of the directive.
BACKGROUND
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Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING www.wing-vechta.de 29
Directive 1999/74/EC distinguishes between:
a) Alternative Systems
b) Unenriched cage systems
c) Enriched cages
The Commission also decided that before the final imple-mentation of the directive, additional scientific studiesshould be undertaken to analyze the impacts on the welfareof laying hens and the economy of production.
BACKGROUND
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Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING www.wing-vechta.de 30
EU:
• Conventional cages banned from January 1st, 2012 on.
• Not all member countries met the deadline.
• Estimated cost: about 1.2 billion €.
• In January 2013, about 30 mill. of the 350 mill. layers were still kept in conventional cages, 17 mill. in Italy alone.
• Problems: trade of eggs that are produced in old cages. Rest of Europe:
• No cages in Norway and Switzerland; conventional cages still used in Belarus, Ukraine and Russia; animal welfare discussion not yet important in the latter countries.
BACKGROUND
Laying hens in conventional cages (in June 2012, Mio. animals)
France: 1.5
Spain: 12.7
Greece: 1.8
Belgium: 3.5Portugal: 2.7Poland: 2.3
Netherlands: 1.6
Cyprus: 0.1
Italy: 17.3
EU: 43.4 Mio. hens
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Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING www.wing-vechta.de 31
BACKGROUND
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The six leading EU (27) member countries in egg production in 2000 and 2012; data in 1,000 t
2000 2012
Country Production Share (%) Country Production Share (%)
France 1,038 15.7 Spain 862 12.3
Germany 901 13.6 France 856 12.2
Italy 686 10.4 Germany 824 11.7
Netherlands 668 10.1 Un. Kingd. 699 9.9
Spain 658 9.9 Netherlands 698 9.9
Un. Kingd. 569 8.6 Austria 691 9.8
6 countries 4,521 68.3 6 countries 4,630 65.8
EU (27) 6,616 100.0 EU (27) 7,033 100.0
FAO, MEG 2013
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Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING www.wing-vechta.de 33
Impacts on egg supplyand egg prices
- Germany - - EU - 27
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Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING www.wing-vechta.de 34
Germany
• In Germany, conventional cages were already banned from January 1st 2010 on, two years earlier than in the rest of the EU.
• The development of egg production in this country can demonstrate possible impacts of such a decision.
EGG SUPPLY
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Decrease 10,8 %
Decrease 14,6 %
Development of layer farms and the number of laying hens in Germany between 2000 and 2012(Source: DESTATIS 2013)
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Development of the German self-sufficiency rate for shell eggs and of egg imports between 2000 and 2013
Impacts of Animal Welfare regulations in Europe
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Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING www.wing-vechta.de
EGG SUPPLY
Potential number of laying hens in Germany
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Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING www.wing-vechta.de 38
Development of the number of laying hens inGermany between January 2011 and December 2013
Date Number of layers (1,000) Index (1/11 = 100)
1/11
7/11
12/11
1/12
7/12
12/12
1/13
7/13
12/13
37,372
37,774
37,721
38,818
38,873
39,457
39,774
40,019
37,989
100
101
101
104
104
106
106
107
102
EMA 9/2913
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Science and Information Centre for Sustainable Poultry Production – WING www.wing-vechta.de
EGG SUPPLY
Price development for shell eggs in Germany(wholesale price); data in €/100 eggs
Date Size class M
(enriched cages)
Index (Jan./2011 = 100)
January 2011
July 2011
December 2011
March 2012
July 2012
December 2012
March 2013
July 2013
4.17
5.18
7.65
12.80
8.35
9.04
6.17
4.81
100
124
183
307
200
218
148
115
EMA 8/2013
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Impacts on egg supplyand egg prices - Germany - EU - 27
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Potential number of laying hens in EU-27
EGG SUPPLY
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Development of the number of laying hens in theEU between January 2011 and December 2013
3 Number of layers (in mill.) Index (1/11 = 100)
1/11
7/11
12/11
1/12
7/12
12/12
1/13
7/13
12/13
364.1
352.9
334.1
331.4
337.0
350.2
353.3
360.3
350.6
100
97
92
91
93
96
97
99
96
EMA 9/2913
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EGG SUPPLY
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EGG SUPPLY
Price development for shell eggs in the Netherlands(producer price); data in €/100 eggs
Date Size class M
(barn system)
Index (Jan./2011 = 100)
January 2011
July 2011
December 2011
March 2012
July 2012
December 2012
March 2013
June 2013
3.38
4.14
6.16
9.98
6.39
7.68
5.62
4.03
100
122
182
295
189
227
166
119
EMA 8/2013
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EGG SUPPLY
Price development for shell eggs in Spain (Bellpuig); data in €/100 eggs
Date Size class M
(average)
Index (Jan./2011 = 100)
January 2011
July 2011
December 2011
March 2012
July 2012
December 2012
March 2013
July 2013
3.79
5.08
6.86
11.33
8.50
8.36
7.08
5.42
100
134
181
299
224
221
187
143
EMA 8/2013
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EGG SUPPLY
Price development for shell eggs in Italy (Milano); data in €/100 eggs
Date Size class M
(average)
Index (Jan./2011 = 100)
January 2011
July 2011
December 2011
March 2012
July 2012
December 2012
March 2013
July 2013
9.92
10.41
11.45
13.18
12.65
14.30
13.95
12.74
100
105
115
132
127
144
140
128
EMA 8/2013
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Impacts on egg trade
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EU (27) member countries with the highest per capitaconsumption and self sufficiency rate for shell eggs (2012)
Per capita consumption (kg/person/year)
Self sufficiency rate (%)
Spain 18.0 Netherlands 307
Czech Rep. 15.6 Belgium 115
Denmark 15.3 Poland 120
France 14.9 Finland 110
Latvia 14.5 Latvia 110
Austria 14.1 Portugal 106
Hungary 14.0 Spain 105
MEG 2013
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EU (27) member countries with the lowest per capitaonsumption and self sufficiency rate for shell eggs (2012)
Per capita consumption(kg/person/year)
Self sufficiency rate (%)
Greece 8.6 Germany 68
Portugal 9.0 Un. Kingd. 82
Finland 10.3 Ireland 83
Belgium 10.6 Austria 84
Ireland 10.7 Czech Republ. 85
Sweden 11.0 France* 87
Poland 11.3 Denmark 92
MEG 2013 * 2011
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TRADE
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EU Egg ImportsTRADE
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Exports of Eggs by EU-27
TRADE
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Imports of Eggs into EU-27
TRADE
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Egg Surplus and Deficit in Europe
SECURITY
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Results : The German case
• Layer flocks in Germany decreased by over 15.6 % between 2005 and 2010.
• Egg production decreased by over 800 mill. pieces between June 2009 and June 2010.
• The self sufficiency rate fell from 74 % to only 59 %.
• Shell egg imports increased from 5.6 billion eggs in 2008 to over 7 billion eggs in 2009. In 2010, the import volume reached 8 billion.
• About 200 mill. € were invested by the industry to meet the German legal regulations.
• Germany will remain the leading egg importing country also in future. Main suppliers will be the Netherlands, Spain and Poland.
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Results of the transformation process in the EU :
• According to the EU commission, the transformation process was completed in all EU member countries in 2012.
• Layer flocks in EU-27 decreased as a result of the cage ban.
• Imports into the EU-27 increased temporarily because of the cage ban, exports decreased.
• Egg prices increased temporarily because of the egg shortage due to the transformation process.
• In 2013, egg prices decreased considerably because of a high oversupply. This will result in a sharp decrease of the number of laying hens in the fourth quarter of 2013.
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3.
Challenges for the global
and European egg industry
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Challenges:
• Climate change.
• Less cultivated land and water resources.
• Declining phosphate resources.
• Growing rejection of intensive animal husbandry in developed countries.
• Animal welfare aspects.
FUTURE
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Main arguments against a modern, market-orientedegg industry:
• number of birds per flock is too large,
• bird density per m2 is too high,
• use of antibiotics is too high and dangerous,
• regional concentration of large poultry flocks cause environmental problems (air, soil, groundwater),
• vertical integration is threatening the future of poultry farms,
• animal welfare (de-beaking of small chicks, selection of male chicks in egg production).
FUTURE
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USA:• conventional cages will be banned from 2030 on (in California from 2015), if the “Egg Bill” is passed,
• the transformation will cost about 4 billion US-$,
• after 2030 the dominating housing system will be colony nests/enriched cages (95 %),
New Zealand:
• Conventional cages will by prohibited from 2022 on, enriched cages will be permitted.
BACKGROUND
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Other countries:
• In Canada, conventional cages must not be installed from 2014 on.
• The discussion to ban cages is under way in Australia, Taiwan, South Korea and just beginning in Japan, India and Costa Rica.
• In China, Malaysia, Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, all African countries as well as in non-EU countries in Europe conventional cages are still being used and a banning is not yet being discussed.
BACKGROUND
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Further Problems:
• the failure of the poultry industry to explain to the public why certain forms of housing systems developed, why large herd sizes are necessary and when and why antibiotics have to be used,
• the failure of the poultry industry to switch from reaction to pro-active action in time.
FUTURE
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The challenge:
• to inform the public about the modern systems of egg and poultry meat production,
• to open the poultry houses to the public and to inform them about housing systems, herd sizes, the cost and profit situation, diseases and their cure, vaccination schemes, animal welfare and environmental problems and steps undertaken to reduce them,
• to continuously inform media, NGOs and animal welfare organisations about innovations in poultry production which help to reduce animal welfare and environmental problems,
• to inform the public about the safety and quality of affordable poultry products.
FUTURE
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4.
Results and Perspectives
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What did we learn in the EU?
1. We learned that very often a challenge is a chance and that serious problems lead to innovations.
2. We learned that animal welfare will be an ongoing challenge.
3. We learned that the improvement of housing systems will be an ongoing task.
RESULTS
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• In less developed and threshold countries, the supply of a growing population with animal proteins is the most important goal for the future.
• In developed countries topics like animal welfare, environmental protection and climate protection are becoming more and more important.
• In developed countries the social acceptance of large farms is decreasing constantly.
RESULTS
Further Results:
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Trends
•In 2050 9 bill. people will live on earth, 86 % in threshold and less developed countries.
• Until 2050 food production has to decrease by 50 % but in 2050 there will be less cultivated land and water supply will be unsure.
• In treshold and less developed countries meat consumption will increase fast because of an increasing purchase power.
• Poultry meat and eggs will be the most important protein sources.
FUTURE
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Egg Production in 2015 (in 1.000 t)
Continent Production Share (%)
Africa 3,683 5.2
Asia 42,354 60.0
N America* 9,077 12.9
SC America 5,124 7.2
Europe 10,135 14.3
Oceania 256 0.4
World 70.629 100.0* Canada, Mexico, USA
FUTURE
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Projection of Egg Production and Consumption in the EU until 2014; data in 1,000 t(Source: EU Commision 10/2013)
2011 2012 2013 2014
Produc-tion
7,303 7,271 7,234 7251
Consump-tion
7,105 7,127 7,057 7,061
Kg/head/year
12.5 12.1 12.2 12.2
Self-suffi-ciency (%)
103 102 103 103
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Thank you very much for your attention!
Prof. Dr. Hans-Wilhelm Windhorst
Science and Information Centrefor Sustainable Poultry Production (WING),
University of Vechta
www.wing-vechta.de
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Questions