Schroders Economic Infographic June 2015 · Source: Schroders as at June 2015. Important...
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Forecast update Schroders Economic Infographic June 2015 Federal Reserve: 2 new risk scenarios Eurozone: forecast on track Bother in the BRICs (2) Tightening tantrum (1) Fed behind the curve Global growth downgraded after disappointing Q1. Inflation expected to remain low in 2015. 2016 2.0% 2016 2.5% 2016 2.9% (prev 2.8%) (prev 3.2%) (prev 1.3%) (prev 1.6%) (prev 3.7%) 2016 4.3% 2016 1.6% 2015 1.4% 2015 2.4% 2015 2.5% 2015 0.9% 2015 3.6% = World U.S.A Europe Japan Emerging Markets Austerity to resume = lower growth Conservative Party election victory Depreciation in € + rebound in energy prices = inflation positive again Fastest quarter of growth since Q4 2007 Economy is out of recession Imports = weighed on total growth Improved growth outcome due to rise in inventories. Pace may not continue into Q2 ECB buying €60bn of assets per month until Sep'16. Eurozone recovery is progressing Germany robust... but French recovery fragile Inflation surges out of control Bond markets sell-off in response to Fed tightening Higher global yields hit growth Emerging markets suffer most Fed delays hike to H2 2016 on growth fears Response to fall in energy costs slower than expected $ remains firm + economy temporarily slows Austerity + credit conditions ease... weak € + energy prices support activity Tighter interest rates, firm $ + weak commodities weigh on growth = 2015 forecast = 2016 forecast Slow start to 2015... however, growth supported by weaker ¥ CHINA INDIA RUSSIA BRAZIL Property + manufacturing to struggle. Weak growth = policy easing measures 5.2% 6.2% 2015 2016 7.8% 2016 7.5% 2015 Oil price remains low Ukraine situation remains tense More aggressive monetary tightening weighs on growth as consumption fades Reforms disappoint market... but modest pace should deliver improvements Growth forecast 2.4% 2.8% 1% 1.6% 2.1% 1.1% 1.2% 0.5% S P A I N G E R M A N Y F R A N C E I T A L Y 6.5% 1.4% 2.0% 6.8% 2015 2016 2015 2016 GDP INFLATION -1.8% 0.7% 2015 2016 5.5% 7.9% 2015 2016 GDP INFLATION -4% 2015 15.1% 2015 6.2% 2016 -0.1% 2016 GDP INFLATION INFLATION GDP
Transcript of Schroders Economic Infographic June 2015 · Source: Schroders as at June 2015. Important...
Forecast updateSchroders Economic Infographic June 2015
Federal Reserve: 2 new risk scenarios
Eurozone: forecast on track
Bother in the BRICs
(2) Tightening tantrum(1) Fed behind the curve
Global growth downgraded after disappointing Q1. Inflation expected to remain low in 2015.
20162.0%
20162.5%
20162.9%
(prev 2.8%) (prev 3.2%)
(prev 1.3%)
(prev 1.6%)
(prev 3.7%)
20164.3%
20161.6%20151.4%
20152.4%
20152.5%
20150.9%
20153.6%
=World U.S.A Europe Japan Emerging
Markets
Austerity to resume = lower growth
Conservative Party election victory
Depreciation in € + rebound in energy prices = inflation positive again
Fastest quarter of growth since Q4 2007
Economy is out of recession
Imports = weighed on total growth
Improved growth outcome due to rise in inventories. Pace may not continue into Q2
ECB buying €60bn of assets per month until Sep'16.
Eurozone recovery is progressing
Germany robust... but French recovery fragile
Inflation surges out of control
Bond markets sell-off inresponse to Fed tightening
Higher global yields hit growth Emerging markets suffer most
Fed delays hike to H2 2016 on growth fears
Responseto fall in energy costsslower than expected
$ remains firm + economy temporarily slows
Austerity + credit conditions ease... weak € + energy prices support activity
Tighter interest rates, firm $ + weak commodities weigh on growth
= 2015 forecast = 2016 forecastSlow start to 2015... however, growth supported by weaker ¥
CHINAINDIARUSSIABRAZIL
Property + manufacturing to struggle.Weak growth = policy easing measures
5.2% 6.2%
2015 2016
7.8%
2016
7.5%
2015
Oil price remains low
Ukraine situationremains tense
More aggressive monetary tightening weighs on growth as consumption fades
Reforms disappoint market... but modest pace should deliver improvements
Gro
wth
fore
cast
2.4%
2.8%
1%
1.6%
2.1%
1.1%
1.2%0.5%
SPAI
N
GERMANY FRANCE ITALY
6.5%
1.4% 2.0%
6.8%
2015 2016 2015 2016
GDP INFLATION
-1.8%0.7%
20152016
5.5%7.9%
2015 2016
GDP
INFLATION-4%2015
15.1%
2015
6.2%
2016-0.1%2016
GDP
INFLATION INFLATIONGDP
Source: Schroders as at June 2015. Important Information: Schroders has expressed its own views in this document and these may change. This document is intended to be for information purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. The material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Information herein is believed to be reliable but Schroders does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. No responsibility can be accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Reliance should not be placed on the views and information in the document when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, prices of shares and the income from them may fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. Issued by Schroder Investment Management Limited, 31 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7QA, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. For your security, communications may be taped or monitored.
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