Schroder Asian Total Return Investment Company plc...PT Waskita Beton Precast Indonesia -7.9 -0.12...

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Robin Parbrook – Head of Asian ex Japan Equities Performance and strategy review Schroder Asian Total Return Investment Company plc April 2017 Marketing material

Transcript of Schroder Asian Total Return Investment Company plc...PT Waskita Beton Precast Indonesia -7.9 -0.12...

Page 1: Schroder Asian Total Return Investment Company plc...PT Waskita Beton Precast Indonesia -7.9 -0.12 Ifast Singapore -13.5 -0.08 RFM Corp Philippines -6.3 -0.07 Stock Country Returns

Robin Parbrook – Head of Asian ex Japan Equities

Performance and strategy review

Schroder Asian Total Return Investment Company plc

April 2017

Marketing material

Page 2: Schroder Asian Total Return Investment Company plc...PT Waskita Beton Precast Indonesia -7.9 -0.12 Ifast Singapore -13.5 -0.08 RFM Corp Philippines -6.3 -0.07 Stock Country Returns

Robin Parbrook

Lee King Fuei

Management Fund managers of Schroder Asian Total Return Investment Company plc

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1As at March 2017

Combined 45 years’ Asian investment experience and strong performance record

Lee King Fuei King Fuei has 18 years’ industry experience1. Initially he covered global stocks, then from 2001 he moved to work with the Asian investment team in Singapore. He is currently the Head of Asia Equities (Singapore) and a fund manager responsible for managing Asia Pacific ex-Japan mandates based in Singapore. He manages a variety of institutional Pacific ex Japan accounts including the award winning Nikko Global Wrap Developed Pacific Equity Fund and the SISF Asian Equity Yield Fund, which was awarded the best Asia Pacific ex Japan Fund by Lipper over 3 years in 2013.

Robin Parbrook Robin has 27 years’ experience1 covering Asia, all of it with Schroders. Robin is currently the Head of Asia ex Japan Equities and also a Regional and Alternatives fund manager, based in Hong Kong. In 2008 he moved to Edinburgh to focus on managing Asian investment strategies with a focus on absolute returns, and returned to Hong Kong in August 2010 to manage Asian Total Return as well as other Asian equity strategies. Prior to 2008 he was Head of the Asian Investment Team for Schroders, in which capacity he managed a range of Asian funds including the Morningstar five-star rated SISF Hong Kong Fund, which was awarded best Hong Kong Equity Fund by Lipper over 3, 5 and 10 years in 2008

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Product overview – Schroder Asian Total Return Investment Company plc

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Source: Schroders, as at 31 March 2017

Fund manager Robin Parbrook/Lee King Fuei

Industry experience (Yrs) Robin (27) King Fuei (18)

Schroders’ experience (Yrs) 45 years (combined)

Investment objective Fund aims

The Company seeks to provide a high rate of total return through investment in equities and equity related securities of companies trading in the Asia Pacific region (excluding Japan). The Company seeks to offer a degree of capital preservation through tactical use of derivative instruments. The Company will invest principally in a diversified portfolio of 40-70 companies operating primarily in Asia, including Australasia but excluding Japan. It is intended that the Company will have a bias to investing in small and mid cap companies.

Page 4: Schroder Asian Total Return Investment Company plc...PT Waskita Beton Precast Indonesia -7.9 -0.12 Ifast Singapore -13.5 -0.08 RFM Corp Philippines -6.3 -0.07 Stock Country Returns

Schroder Asian Total Return Investment Company plc Taking a different approach to investing in Asia

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Securities shown are for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell.

– Where a stock is listed (e.g. Rusal in HK) is unimportant. It is what the company does that drives returns

– It is NOT about taking large country positions based on a discussion of widely available pieces of economic data. With little information advantage we believe the top down part of an Asian investment process is best left to quantitative models

– Only buy stocks that have upside to consistently calculated fair values made by experienced analysts, rather than worrying about overweight or underweight positions. In our view the primary goal for investors in Asia is to make money, whilst avoiding large losses, not relative performance

Ignore the index

Focus solely on absolute returns

Top Down is about understanding market risks, taking out volatility and aiming to provide capital preservation

Page 5: Schroder Asian Total Return Investment Company plc...PT Waskita Beton Precast Indonesia -7.9 -0.12 Ifast Singapore -13.5 -0.08 RFM Corp Philippines -6.3 -0.07 Stock Country Returns

If risk of short-term correction is high, remove more market risk

Schroder Asian Total Return Investment Company plc Investment process – an overview

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Source: Schroders. The above is for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to invest in the country.

– Picking the best 50 stocks

Market risk removed to provide downside protection

– Which Asian markets are expensive or cheap in the medium term?

– Are there significant short-term market risks?

– Final portfolio 60 stocks as at 31

Mar 2017

Stock Selection

Step 1

Country view

Step 2

Tactical view

Step 3

Additional protection against short term market correction via ASX 200, HSI, HSCEI and TWSE put options

Country hedges for expensive markets

For expensive markets, remove country risk

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Schroder Asian Total Return Investment Company plc 2016 and YTD 31st March 2017 Performance

Source: Schroders, Morningstar. All fund/trust data is after fees. In a change from earlier reviews, share price data is now sourced from Morningstar with NAV’s being on a cum income NAV. The reference index is the MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan since March 2013, chain-linked to the original index. New strategy started from March 2013. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.

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Performance Summary – in % GBP Total Returns

2016 %

Year to Date %

Net Asset Value total return 28.5 11.4

Share price total return 37.0 11.6

Peer group NAV total return 25.7 13.1

MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Index 27.3 11.5

Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of any overseas investments to rise or fall.

Page 7: Schroder Asian Total Return Investment Company plc...PT Waskita Beton Precast Indonesia -7.9 -0.12 Ifast Singapore -13.5 -0.08 RFM Corp Philippines -6.3 -0.07 Stock Country Returns

Schroder Asian Total Return Investment Company plc Long Term Performance

Source: Schroders, Morningstar. All data is after fees. Some performance differences between the fund and the reference index may arise because the fund performance is calculated at a different valuation point from the reference index. On 18 March 2013 the MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan replaced the MSCI AC Asia ex Japan. The track record of the previous index has been kept and chain-linked to the new one. Schroders took over the management of the Company on 18 March 2013.

12 month ending 31 March

2013 31 March

2014 31 March

2015 31 March

2016 31 March

2017 March 2013

to March 2017

% % % % % % p.a.

Net Asset Value total return

9.4 -8.6 26.1 -2.1 35.0 11.1

Share Price total return 16.4 -13.6 26.5 -4.2 43.0 10.6

MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Index 12.7 -6.7 19.4 -8.7 35.9 8.4

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Performance Summary – in % GBP

Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of any overseas investments to rise or fall.

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Absolute contribution to returns in USD (%) Top and bottom 5 stock contributors

Schroder Asian Total Return Investment Company plc Performance attribution – Financial Year 2016

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Source: FactSet. Securities shown are for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell.

Stock Country Returns (%)

Absolute Contribution (%)

Johnson Electric Hong Kong -5.7 -0.30

Pacific Textiles Hong Kong -10.0 -0.27

Hollysys Automation China -13.7 -0.27

IFast Singapore -24.7 -0.26

Karex Malaysia -14.9 -0.23

Stock Country Returns (%)

Absolute Contribution (%)

Largan Precision Taiwan 106.5 2.30 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing

Taiwan 60.3 2.24

China Lodging Group China 97.8 1.72

Tencent China 48.8 1.67

Jardine Strategic Hong Kong 46.3 1.59

6.3

7.7

4.6

1.5

0.6 1.3

-0.2

0.0

1.0

0.2

7.6

2.4

-1.2

0.1

-0.2

Aust

ralia

Chin

a

Hon

g Ko

ng

Indi

a

Indo

nesi

a

Kore

a

Mal

aysi

a

New

Zea

land

Phili

ppin

es

Sing

apor

e

Taiw

an

Thai

land

Cash

Der

ivat

ives

FX F

orw

ards

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Absolute contribution to returns in USD (%) Top and bottom 5 stock contributors

Schroder Asian Total Return Investment Company plc Performance attribution – for YTD 31 March 2017

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Source: FactSet. Securities shown are for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell.

Stock Country Returns (%)

Absolute Contribution (%)

Brambles Australia -20.3 -0.53

PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Indonesia -16.9 -0.15

PT Waskita Beton Precast Indonesia -7.9 -0.12

Ifast Singapore -13.5 -0.08

RFM Corp Philippines -6.3 -0.07

Stock Country Returns (%)

Absolute Contribution (%)

Jardine Strategic Hong Kong 25.7 1.10

Largan Precision Taiwan 32.4 0.74

Alibaba China 21.3 0.71

Samsung Electronics Korea 22.0 0.64

HDFC Bank India 22.5 0.63 0.8

5.0

3.1

1.7

-0.3

1.3

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0

2.3

0.2 0.2

-1.8

-0.5

Aust

ralia

Chin

a

Hon

g Ko

ng

Indi

a

Indo

nesi

a

Kore

a

Mal

aysi

a

New

Zea

land

Phili

ppin

es

Sing

apor

e

Taiw

an

Thai

land

Cash

Der

ivat

ives

FX F

orw

ards

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Schroder Asian Total Return Investment Company plc Portfolio Positioning as at 31 March 2017

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Source: Schroders, 31 March 2017. Sectors shown are for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell

Country Positioning Sector Positioning

14.8%

25.1%

22.1%

11.7%

2.1%

7.2%

0.0%

1.9%

1.6%

16.8%

2.9%

0.5%

-6.7%

-7.4%

Australia

China

Hong Kong

India

Indonesia

Korea

Malaysia

New Zealand

Philippines

Singapore

Taiwan

Thailand

United States

Hedges - delta-adjusted

Cash

19.9%

1.6%

0.0%

14.2%

7.7%

11.2%

33.5%

6.4%

9.5%

1.5%

0.0%

1.2%

-7.4%

-6.7%

Consumer Disc.

Consumer Staples

Energy

Financials

Health Care

Industrials

Info Technology

Materials

Real Estate

Telecom Services

Utilities

Unit Trust

Hedges - delta-adjusted

Cash

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Schroder Asian Total Return Investment Company plc Top 10 Holdings as at 31 March 2017

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Source: Schroders. Data is for information only and it does not constitute any recommendation to invest or disinvest in the above-mentioned securities. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.

Security Country Sector Fund (%)

Jardine Strategic Hong Kong Industrials 4.8%

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Taiwan Info Tech 4.8%

Tencent China Info Tech 4.2%

Alibaba China Info Tech 3.8%

HDFC Bank India Financials 3.5%

Samsung Electronics Korea Info Tech 3.2%

Hon Hai Precision Taiwan Info Tech 2.7%

Largan Precision Taiwan Info Tech 2.5%

AIA Group Hong Kong Financials 2.5%

China Lodging Group China Consumer Discretionary 2.5%

Total 34.5%

Page 12: Schroder Asian Total Return Investment Company plc...PT Waskita Beton Precast Indonesia -7.9 -0.12 Ifast Singapore -13.5 -0.08 RFM Corp Philippines -6.3 -0.07 Stock Country Returns

Market Outlook

Page 13: Schroder Asian Total Return Investment Company plc...PT Waskita Beton Precast Indonesia -7.9 -0.12 Ifast Singapore -13.5 -0.08 RFM Corp Philippines -6.3 -0.07 Stock Country Returns

China’s Share of Global Investment (%) – China now commands ~27%-28% of global investment but only 15% of global GDP

Non-Financial sector credit World China China

share (%)

2001-2005 27,326 1,587 5.8%

2006 -2010 48,386 7,978 16.5%

2011-2016 30,143 16,535 54.9%

2014-2016 10,638 7,122 67.0%

China - QE and investment spend powers the world More important driver of cyclical rebound than Trump policies

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Source: IMF, BIS, Macquarie Research, March 2017

Non-Financial Credit Growth (US$ bn) – China is responsible for 67% of net global credit creation and over 90% of global credit to NF corporates

Non-Financial corporate credit

World China China share (%)

2008-2013 12,973 9,874 76.1%

2014-2016 4,630 4,288 92.6%

0.0%

4.0%

8.0%

12.0%

16.0%

20.0%

24.0%

28.0%

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

China Share (%) - Investment China Share GDP (%)

Take off post WTO

Take off post GFC

Page 14: Schroder Asian Total Return Investment Company plc...PT Waskita Beton Precast Indonesia -7.9 -0.12 Ifast Singapore -13.5 -0.08 RFM Corp Philippines -6.3 -0.07 Stock Country Returns

China – Credit/GDP spiralling upwards

Debt levels already very high and marginal return on new credit is falling

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China - why continual stimulus is increasingly risky

China - Incremental Capital Output ratio (ICOR) Outstanding credit as a share of GDP

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

China - ICOR Average 1991-2007

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

200%

220%

240%

260%

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Total domestic claims Official TSF

Source: Emerging Advisors Group, January 2017 Source: World Bank, IMF, Macquarie Asia Strategy Research, January 2017

More credit growth needed for each dollar of GDP growth

Page 15: Schroder Asian Total Return Investment Company plc...PT Waskita Beton Precast Indonesia -7.9 -0.12 Ifast Singapore -13.5 -0.08 RFM Corp Philippines -6.3 -0.07 Stock Country Returns

Stimulus distorted cement demand over the last 8 years

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

E20

18E

2019

E20

20E

Est. cement demand WITH stimulusEst. cement demand WITHOUT stimulus

China - repeated stimulus has pulled forward demand Rebalancing means inevitable slowdown / fall in demand for key commodities

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Source: WIND, CEIC, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), China Cement Association (CCA), Digital Cement (DC), UBS estimates, October 2016 Source: JP Morgan as at October 2016 Regions shown are for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell

mt Actual demand driven by stimulus

Organic demand estimate WITHOUT

stimulus

Driven by organic demand

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

0 6000 12000 18000 24000 30000 36000 42000 48000 54000 60000

Russia (1991-2015)Brazil (1985-2015)India (1985-2016)China (1985-2016)US (1930-2015)UK (1985-2015)Germany (1985-2015)Japan (1985-2015)Taiwan (1985-2015)South Korea (1985-2015)Mexico (1985-2015)Spain (1985-2015)Indonesia (1985-2015)

GDP per capita (USD)

Cement consumption per capita (tonnes)

US 2015

Russia 2015

Brazil 2015

Mexico 2015

S. Korea 2015

Taiwan 2015

UK 2015

Germany 2015 Japan 2015

India 2016E

1993: per capita cement consumption peaked in Taiwan

1997: per capita cement consumption peaked in Korea

Spain 2015

Indonesia 2015

China 2015

China 2016E

Peak for Spain in 2006

Page 16: Schroder Asian Total Return Investment Company plc...PT Waskita Beton Precast Indonesia -7.9 -0.12 Ifast Singapore -13.5 -0.08 RFM Corp Philippines -6.3 -0.07 Stock Country Returns

Assets of the Chinese financial system in 2008 China – estimated shadow banking stock …reaches Rmb 42 trillion

China - financial sector transparency down, fragility up. Rampant credit growth driven by shadow banking sector and smaller, marginal banks

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Source: Emerging Advisors Group

Big four banks, 96%

Other banks, 100% Trust,

3%

Insurance, 11%

Securities, 8%

Asset/ WMP, 14%

Pension, 3%

Other finance, 4%

"Other" (informal),

9%

Total Assets: 248% of GDP

Assets of the Chinese financial system in 2016

Big four banks, 109%

Other banks, 185%

Trust, 24%

Insurance, 20%

Securities, 26%

Asset/ WMP, 46%

Pension, 8%

Other finance,

14%

"Other" (informal),

11%

Total Assets: 441% of GDP

Source: CEIC, Macquarie Research, March 2017

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

% of GDP RMB bn

Shadow Banking % of GDP

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0.0% 3.0% 6.0% 9.0% 12.0% 15.0% 18.0%

Mexico

Italy

Brazil

India

France

Germany

United Kingdom

China

-10%0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%110%

CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19USA Europe China Asia Pacific ex-China LatAm Other

E-commerce penetration by country (% of B2C retail sales) 2016

Share of incremental ecommerce growth in US$

China - E-commerce leads the world Weak off-line infrastructure and protectionism allows PRC on-line players to thrive

16

Source: Euromonitor and BofA-Merrill Lynch , January 2017 Source: Euromonitor and BofA-Merrill Lynch , January 2017

2016 Apparel

& Footwear

Beauty & Personal

Care

Consumer Appliances

Consumer Electronics

Consumer Health

Home Care

Home Improvement

& Gardening

Homewares & Home

Furnishings

Personal Accessories & Eyewear

Pet Care Traditional

Toys & Games

Video Games

Hardware Total

Australia 15% 6% 10% 18% 7% 2% 4% 4% 9% 1% 9% 10% 7% Brazil 3% 2% 13% 14% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 2% 9% 14% 4% Canada 3% 2% 5% 7% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 6% 9% 2% China 26% 20% 33% 44% 16% 7% 6% 6% 6% 7% 4% 23% 17% France 17% 5% 9% 26% 5% 2% 3% 3% 4% 6% 21% 21% 7% Germany 19% 5% 10% 27% 13% 1% 5% 5% 6% 10% 20% 13% 9% India 7% 1% 1% 16% 3% 0% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 4% Italy 6% 4% 5% 13% 1% 2% 1% 1% 3% 3% 8% 16% 3% Japan 13% 8% 9% 11% 4% 2% 8% 8% 9% 11% 14% 16% 8% Mexico 2% 1% 9% 13% 1% 1% 1% 1% 4% 0% 3% 5% 2% Russia 8% 4% 13% 21% 4% 2% 9% 9% 5% 4% 9% 9% 4% South Korea 21% 9% 11% 19% 11% 7% 15% 15% 8% 23% 24% 42% 17% Spain 5% 6% 3% 12% 1% 1% 3% 3% 6% 7% 14% 15% 4% United Kingdom 19% 11% 26% 34% 12% 7% 15% 15% 8% 8% 25% 22% 14% USA 15% 8% 21% 37% 11% 1% 9% 9% 11% 5% 17% 21% 11%

E-commerce penetration by end market (as % of B2C retail sales)

Source: Euromonitor and BofA-Merrill Lynch , January 2017

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-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Same-hotel RevPAR Growth

All hotels Non-Shanghai hotels

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Leased and owned hotels

0

20

40

60

80

100

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Rapid growth in membership program Rapid growth across multiple budget/mid-level brands Strong brand loyalty – 88% direct sales

China – strong growth from travel market China Lodging - cyclical upswing and longer term secular growth from rising leisure spending in China

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Source: Company data, March 2017

Number of hotels in operation In millions

Share price re-rated as growth comes through Cyclical upswing in revenues as economy improves

For hotels in operation for at least 18 mths

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Share Price (USD)

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MSCI Asia Pac ex JP ex financials, energy & materials – 12m Fwd PE (x)

MSCI Asia Pac ex JP ex financials, energy & materials – 12m Trailing PB (x)

Valuations - what is in the price in Asia? Stock markets not cheap when questionable banks and commodity stocks are removed

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Source: Datastream, MSCI, CLSA, 19 April 2017

Avg, 13.4

+1SD, 15.0

-1SD, 11.8

+2SD, 16.5

-2SD, 10.3

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

Dec

99

Dec

00

Dec

01

Dec

02

Dec

03

Dec

04

Dec

05

Dec

06

Dec

07

Dec

08

Dec

09

Dec

10

Dec

11

Dec

12

Dec

13

Dec

14

Dec

15

Dec

16

12m fwd PE (x)

Avg, 1.8

+1SD, 2.1

-1SD, 1.5

+2SD, 2.4

-2SD, 1.2 1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

Dec

99

Dec

00

Dec

01

Dec

02

Dec

03

Dec

04

Dec

05

Dec

06

Dec

07

Dec

08

Dec

09

Dec

10

Dec

11

Dec

12

Dec

13

Dec

14

Dec

15

Dec

16

12m trl PB (x)

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Valuations - Schroders bottom up indicator More limited upside to analysts’ Fair Value estimates across our coverage

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Source: Schroders, March 2017

Page 21: Schroder Asian Total Return Investment Company plc...PT Waskita Beton Precast Indonesia -7.9 -0.12 Ifast Singapore -13.5 -0.08 RFM Corp Philippines -6.3 -0.07 Stock Country Returns

Regional challenges - structural issues facing emerging markets Do Asian countries have the right “soft skills” for the New Economy?

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1Source: World Bank Ease of Doing Business 2014. 2Source: Fraser Institute 2012. 3Source: Transparency International 2014. 4Source: United Nations Development Programme 2014. Countries shown are for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell.

Country Ease of Doing Business1

(189 Countries) Economic Freedom2

(152 Countries) Corruption Perception3

(174 Countries) Human Development4

(187 Countries)

Singapore 1 1 7 9

New Zealand 2 3 2 7

Australia 10 8 11 2

Hong Kong 3 2 17 15

Taiwan 19 18 35 –

South Korea 5 33 43 15

Malaysia 18 74 50 62

Thailand 26 102 85 89

China 90 115 100 91

Philippines 95 51 85 117

Indonesia 114 80 107 108

India 142 110 85 135

Japan 29 23 15 17

US 7 12 17 5

United Kingdom 8 12 14 14

France 31 58 26 20

Germany 14 28 12 6

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8x

12x

16x

20x

24x

4x

12x

20x

28x

36x

8x

12x

16x

20x

24x

0x

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index – P/E Ratio

ASEAN – Are premium valuations justified?

21

Source: Bloomberg, April 2017. Countries shown are for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell

Current = 16.9x

Philippines SE Composite Index – P/E Ratio

Current = 20.2x

Jakarta SE Composite Index – P/E Ratio FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI – P/E Ratio

Current = 24.5x Current =

17.2x

Page 23: Schroder Asian Total Return Investment Company plc...PT Waskita Beton Precast Indonesia -7.9 -0.12 Ifast Singapore -13.5 -0.08 RFM Corp Philippines -6.3 -0.07 Stock Country Returns

What do we like: Healthcare Aging demographics and rising income drives higher health care expenditure

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Note 1: US and Hong Kong are excluded from the above chart as they are outliers Source: Resmed 1 Comorbidity is the presence of one or more additional diseases or disorders occurring with (that is concomitant or concurrent with) a primary disease or disorder, in the countable sense of the term, a comorbidity (plural comorbidities) is each additional disorder or disease.

Healthcare spending increases as the population ages

Sleep apnea is highly prevalent in chronic diseases, but remains a huge, underpenetrated market

The Sleep Heart Health Study found that 26% of adults have sleep apnea

Prevalence of sleep apnea in comorbidities1 Healthcare expenditure (% of GDP)

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

Old Age Dependency Ratio (%)

Indonesia

Malaysia

India Thailand

Singapore China

Mexico Turkey

Brazil

Korea

Russia

Japan Italy

Germany

Greece

France

UK Spain

Higher old-age dependency ratio means

more healthcare expenditure

As of 2012

83%

77%

76%

59%

49%

48%

37%

30%

Drug-resistant hypertension

Obesity

Congestive heart failure

Pacemakers

Atrial fibrillation

Diabetes

All hypertension

Coronary artery disease

Page 24: Schroder Asian Total Return Investment Company plc...PT Waskita Beton Precast Indonesia -7.9 -0.12 Ifast Singapore -13.5 -0.08 RFM Corp Philippines -6.3 -0.07 Stock Country Returns

What do we like: Disruption innovators Advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS)

23

Source: Boston Consulting Group, McKinsey & Co. As of 1 Feb 2016.

Consumer and regulatory interest is driving demand for ADAS over the next decade

The market for ADAS is expected to grow strongly through 2020

Global revenue projections for advanced driver-assistance systems

Societal harm from motor vehicle crashes

400

600

800

Current ADAS penetration 100% ADAS penetration

Equivalent to 6% of real GDP

28% savings is equivalent to ~2.5x federal spending

on education

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

2015 2016E 2018E 2020E

Strategy Analytics TechNavio

$ billion $ billion

Compounded annual growth rate: 29%

Compounded annual growth rate: 16%

US and EU regulatory timeline for safety techy recommendations/mandates

Page 25: Schroder Asian Total Return Investment Company plc...PT Waskita Beton Precast Indonesia -7.9 -0.12 Ifast Singapore -13.5 -0.08 RFM Corp Philippines -6.3 -0.07 Stock Country Returns

A global growth industry – Big Brother is watching more and more..

Exciting growth potential from new product areas

What do we like: technological leadership Hikvision – global leader in surveillance equipment and vision technology

24

Source: Company data

Hik product offerings: front-end cameras, data transfer and storage, data analytics systems and control platform

Page 26: Schroder Asian Total Return Investment Company plc...PT Waskita Beton Precast Indonesia -7.9 -0.12 Ifast Singapore -13.5 -0.08 RFM Corp Philippines -6.3 -0.07 Stock Country Returns

What do we like: technological leadership Largan Precision – dominant lens manufacturer

25

Source: IDC, eMarketer, United Nations, Statista, CLSA

Global smartphone shipments are expected to grow over the next few years as penetration rises

Continued spec upgrade and increasing dual cam adoption to underpin handset lens demand

Global smartphone shipments and penetration, 2009 – 2018E Smartphone market share, by camera resolution

0

20

40

60

80

Mar 15 Jun 15 Sep 15 Dec 15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16

Number of dual cam smartphones on the market

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

E

2017

E

2018

E

Global smartphone shipments (million units)Global smartphone penetration (%, rhs)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Mar 14 Jun 14 Sep 14 Dec 14 Mar 15 Jun 15 Sep 15 Dec 1520+ megapixels 16-19 megapixels 12-15 megapixels8-11 megapixels 5-7 megapixels Under 5 megapixels

Page 27: Schroder Asian Total Return Investment Company plc...PT Waskita Beton Precast Indonesia -7.9 -0.12 Ifast Singapore -13.5 -0.08 RFM Corp Philippines -6.3 -0.07 Stock Country Returns

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Railways investment in 2009-2014 Railways investment in 2015-2019

Indian smartphone penetration on verge of rapid growth Impact of data flows on global GDP growth may be larger than that of either migration or FDI

India - rising telecom and infrastructure investment will significantly raise economic potential

26

Source: Indian Railways, Macquarie Research, March 2016

Indian transport network suffers from chronic underinvestment

Railways investments of US$130b planned for the next 5 years

Source: McKinsey Global Institute, JP Morgan, April 2016 Source: CLSA, IDC, Cybermedia Research, April 2016

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

050

100150200250300350400

FY14 FY15 FY16CL FY17CL FY18CL4G smartphone population Non-4G smartphone population

(m) (% mobile subscribers)

203550658095

110125

194

9

195

5

196

1

196

7

197

3

197

9

198

5

199

1

199

7

200

3

200

9

201

5

China India

(‘000 kms)

Source: India Ministry of Railways (Railway Board), China Railway Corporation, China National Railway Administration, Morgan Stanley, April 2016

Railway route length

Page 28: Schroder Asian Total Return Investment Company plc...PT Waskita Beton Precast Indonesia -7.9 -0.12 Ifast Singapore -13.5 -0.08 RFM Corp Philippines -6.3 -0.07 Stock Country Returns

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Techtronics – leading edge battery technology

What do we like : world class exporters

Source: Bloomberg, April 2017 For illustrative purpose only, it does not represent any recommendation to invest or disinvest in the above-mentioned securities

Share price (HKD)

.

27

Merida & Giant – leading global brands and manufacturing expertise

Branded global growth plays – beneficiaries of a weaker RMB

Revenue NT$m

Giant Manufacturing

Merida Industry

Page 29: Schroder Asian Total Return Investment Company plc...PT Waskita Beton Precast Indonesia -7.9 -0.12 Ifast Singapore -13.5 -0.08 RFM Corp Philippines -6.3 -0.07 Stock Country Returns

Sectors where caution warranted Areas we intrinsically like

Conclusions – How to invest longer term?

Source: Schroders; google.com; Chosun Daily.

– Strong Free Cash Flow e.g. Taiwan Exporters

– Lowest cost producers e.g. HK/China/Taiwan Exporters

– Flexible cost base e.g. HK/China Exporters

– Secular growth – Innovators

e.g. Taiwan Tech, Indian private sector banks, Chinese internet

– Sustainable yield e.g. Developed Market Telecoms

– Value products e.g. HK Industrials

– Automation e.g. Taiwan/China Industrials

– Healthcare e.g. China

– ASEAN Consumption e.g. (Not at current levels)

– Commodities

– Asset Heavy-Capital Intensive

– Asian Banks and Financials

– High Gearing

– Monopolies

– Weak Cash Flow

– State Owned Enterprises

– Sticky Cost Bases/Excess Regulation

– Hierarchical companies (Chaebols)

28

Page 30: Schroder Asian Total Return Investment Company plc...PT Waskita Beton Precast Indonesia -7.9 -0.12 Ifast Singapore -13.5 -0.08 RFM Corp Philippines -6.3 -0.07 Stock Country Returns

Risk Factors

29

Asian Total Return Investment Company plc:

Investors in the emerging markets and Asia should be aware that this involves a high degree of risk and should be seen as long term in nature.

Less developed markets are generally less well regulated than the UK, they may be less liquid and may have less reliable arrangements for trading and settlement of the underlying holdings.

The Company holds investments denominated in currencies other than sterling, investors should note that exchange rates may cause the value of these investments, and the income from them, to rise or fall.

The Company invests in smaller companies that may be less liquid than in larger companies and price swings may therefore be greater than investment companies that invest in larger companies.

The Company may borrow money to invest in further investments, this is known as gearing. Gearing will increase returns if the value of the investments purchased increase in value by more than the cost of borrowing, or reduce returns if they fail to do so.

Investments such as warrants, participation certificates, guaranteed bonds, etc. will expose the fund to the risk of the issuer of these instruments defaulting on paying the capital back to the fund.

The Company can use derivatives to protect the capital value of the portfolio and reduce volatility, or for efficient portfolio management.

Page 31: Schroder Asian Total Return Investment Company plc...PT Waskita Beton Precast Indonesia -7.9 -0.12 Ifast Singapore -13.5 -0.08 RFM Corp Philippines -6.3 -0.07 Stock Country Returns

Important Information

30

Past Performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of any overseas investments to rise or fall.

The most up to date Key Features Documents, available at www.schroders.co.uk/investor or on request. For further explanation of any financial terms, visit www.schroders.co.uk/glossary. For investment advice, speak to your Financial Adviser. If you don't already have an Adviser, you can find one at www.unbiased.co.uk or www.vouchedfor.co.uk.

This presentation is intended to be for information purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. The material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and opinions contained herein are those of Robin Parbrook, Head of Asia ex Japan Equities, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Schroders communications, strategies or funds. The material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Information herein is believed to be reliable but Schroder Investment Management Ltd (Schroders) does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The data has been sourced by Schroders and should be independently verified before further publication or use. No responsibility can be accepted for error of fact or opinion. This does not exclude or restrict any duty or liability that Schroders has to its customers under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (as amended from time to time) or any other regulatory system. Reliance should not be placed on the views and information in the document when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. The forecasts included should not be relied upon, are not guaranteed and are provided only as at the date of issue. Our forecasts are based on our own assumptions which may change. Forecasts and assumptions may be affected by external economic or other factors.

Issued in April 2017 by Schroder Investment Management Limited, 31 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7QA. Registered No. 1893220 England. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority

Asian Total Return Investment Company plc:

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Contact Schroder Investment Management Limited, 31 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7QA. schroders.com