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Transcript of School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Alternative Energy and Environmental...
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School of Environmental SciencesUniversity of East Anglia
Alternative Energy and Environmental Issues
Dr N. Keith ToveyHard Choices Ahead
-
EnergyMeasures in last 12 monthsNew Building RegulationsNew Electricity trading ArrangementsNew Renewable ObligationClimateGeological Resources - Fossil Fuels / Nuclear Renewable ResourcesLaws of Nature (thermodynamics)Exploitation of some Energy Resources is limited by technical know-howe.g. Wave PowerThere are also limits to how fast new resources/technologies can be exploited.Some Resources are expensive to exploite.g. photo voltaicsothers such as Gas are cheapHow much energy do we need?What do we need it for?
Standards of comfort have risenHousehold sizes have reducedDesire for more appliances If every household in UK turned off one appliance which is normally on standby, how much would we save? about 500 Wind Turbines the size of Swaffham.Global WarmingSea level riseExtremes of climate - more floodingUK will probably become colderAcid RainPollution etcetc.etc
-
Domestic TransportIndustryCommercial/Administration/EducationConversion
Total1.0 kW1.2 kW0.8 kW0.5 kW
1.5 kW========5.0 kWHow much Energy do we need?Per person
-
Current Dependency on Fuels for different countries
-
Energy is getting cheaper, particularly since privatisation and deregulation.
This is making renewables less attractive
Sheet1
1950200020202050
hydro0.1
coal89.515
oil10.432
gas43
rnewables1
nuclear9
1970 1980 1990 2000
Coal and smokeless fuels 89.2 109.0 100.0 94.9
Electricity 84.9 104.0 100.0 78.3
Gas 129.0 86.4 100.0 77.4
Petrol and oil 97.1 107.3 100.0 116.7
Source: DTI (2001a).
1970198019902000
Coal89.210910094.9
Electricity84.910410078.3
Gas12986.410077.4
Petrol97.1107.3100116.7
1970198019902000
Coal10010091.743119266187.0642201835
Electricity10010096.153846153875.2884615385
Gas100100115.740740740789.5833333333
Petrol10010093.1966449208108.7604846226
198019902000
Coal10091.787.1
Electricity10096.275.3
Gas100115.789.6
Petrol10093.2108.8
Sheet1
89.284.912997.1
10910486.4107.3
100100100100
94.978.377.4116.7
Coal
Electricity
Gas
Petrol
Sheet2
Coal
Electricity
Gas
Petrol
Sheet3
-
Changing Fuel Mix in UKOn present trends, gas will become more and more dominant.In 1990 < 1% of electricity was generated by gas. In 2001 >40% of generation is by gas and rising rapidly.
-
We can make CO2 targets with all new electricity generation from gas, but then 75% of our electricity will depend on supplies of gas from Russia, Middle East, or North AfricaThese figures assume we achieve 20% renewable generation by 2022
-
Changing Face of Energy in UKWhere will we get our Gas from after 2010Russia?, Middle East?, Libya?, Algeria?
Sheet1
CountryInstalled MWInstalled MW
20002001
Germany61138754
Spain22353337
Denmark23002417
Italy427697
Netherlands446493
UK406474
Sweden231290
Greece189272
Portugal100125
Ireland118125
Austria7794
France6678
Finland3839
Belgium1331
Luxembourg1015
1276917241
ProjectsTurbinesMegawattsGenerationHomes Equivalent
72945493.41.29TWh323,8031,340,417
1.29
29.8460222887
CountryInstalled MWInstalled MW
20002001
Germany611387547003.2
Spain223533372669.6
Denmark230024171933.6
Italy427697557.6
Netherlands446493394.4
UK406474379.2
Sweden231290232
Greece189272217.6
Portugal100125100
Ireland118125100
Austria779475.2
France667862.4
Finland383931.2
Belgium133124.8
Luxembourg101512
Sheet1
2000
2001
Sheet2
Number of Turbine Equivalents
Turbine Numbers (Swaffham equivalents)
Sheet3
OrderTechnology BandNo. of ProjectsCapacity MW (DNC)
HydroMIWLFGBIOMass
NFFO-1Hydro2110.001H10.00100000000
000000000
ize=-1>10.001000000000
000000000
LFG1930.776LFG000000030.7760
000000000
MIW440.63MIW00000040.6300
000000000
Other445.48Wa045.480000000
000000000
SGas65.98Wa05.980000000
000000000
Wind58.138Wi008.138000000
000000000
Totals :59141.005000000000
000000000
NFFO-2Hydro1010.457H10.45700000000
000000000
LFG2646.393LFG000000046.3930
000000000
MIW231.5MIW00000031.500
000000000
Other112.5Wa012.50000000
000000000
SGas1819.059Wa019.0590000000
000000000
Wind2352.452Wi0052.452000000
000000000
Totals :80172.361000000000
000000000
NFFO-3ECAFW - Gasification18Wa080000000
000000000
ECAFW - Other269.5Wa069.50000000
000000000
Hydro811.738H11.73800000000
000000000
LFG4282.071LFG000000082.0710
000000000
MIW677.419MIW00000077.41900
000000000
Wind Large1041.021WiL00041.02100000
000000000
Wind Small109.47Wis00009.470000
000000000
Totals :79299.219000000000
000000000
NFFO-4Hydro72.102H2.10200000000
000000000
LFG51135.711LFG0000000135.7110
000000000
MIW - CHP214.98MIW00000014.9800
000000000
Wind Large12.528WiL0002.52800000
000000000
Wind Small42.755WiS00002.7550000
000000000
Totals :65158.076000000000
000000000
NFFO-5Hydro20.4H0.400000000
000000000
LFG4488.653LFG000000088.6530
000000000
Wind Small21.69WiS00001.690000
000000000
Totals :4890.743000000000
000000000
NI-NFFO-1Hydro71.89H1.8900000000
000000000
Wind612.664Wi0012.664000000
000000000
Totals :1314.554000000000
000000000
NI-NFFO-2Biomass20.304BIO000000000.304
000000000
Hydro10.075H0.07500000000
000000000
Wind22.567Wi002.567000000
000000000
Totals :52.946000000000
000000000
SRO-1Biomass19.8BIO000000009.8
000000000
Hydro64.04H4.0400000000
000000000
Wind725.13Wi0025.13000000
000000000
WTE23.78Wa03.780000000
000000000
Totals :1642.75000000000
000000000
SRO-2Hydro10.83H0.8300000000
000000000
WTE415Wa0150000000
000000000
Totals :515.83000000000
000000000
SRO-3Wave10.2Wave000000.2000
000000000
Wind Large18.29WiL0008.2900000
000000000
Wind Small32.47WiS00002.470000
000000000
WTE26.12Wa06.120000000
000000000
Totals :717.08000000000
000000000
Grand Total377954.641.533185.419100.95151.83916.3850.2164.529383.60410.104
396.327
bionass10.104
hydro41.533
MIW164.529
LFG383.604
Wave0.2
Wind169.175
Total769.145
Mtonnes of Oil Equivalent200020102020
Production29018370
Demand244257266
Exports46
Imports74196
Imports as % Demand-19%29%74%
Gas Demand:95109125
Gas as % Demand39%42%47%
% Electricity Produced by Gascould be as high as~75% in 2020
-
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020
Sheet1
26.28
potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
Gas CCGT1.8 - 2.4pavailable now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 80+% (France)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionnot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration
On Shore Wind2.5 - 3p~25%available now for commercial exploiation~ 2p
Off shore wind4 - 5p25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5p
Hydro3 - 4p5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic12 - 16p50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p
Energy Crops5 - 8p100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream6 -8p100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages?10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermal?unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then
Sheet2
Sheet3
-
Electricity Consumption in a large house in Wales -17th - 20th March 2002Data courtesy of ENV-2C08 studentsWhat do we mean when we say that a particular energy system could supply electricity for N homes?
-
Electricity Consumption in a detached house in Gorleston -28th March 2002Peak demand 3.02kWAverage 0.38kWAverage UK 0.45 kW Number of Houses supplied by turbine of Size of Swaffham
124 - Peak982 - Average833 - Average UKData courtesy of Charlotte TurnerHowever, what Load Factor is assumed?
-
Wind Energy in EuropeThe European Commission directive 2001:
Member States are required to adopt national targets for renewables that are consistent with reaching the Commissions overall target of 12.1 per cent electricity from renewables by 2010. UKs indicative target is 10 per cent electricity.
Chart1
7003.2
2669.6
1933.6
557.6
394.4
379.2
232
217.6
100
100
75.2
62.4
31.2
24.8
12
Number of Turbine Equivalents
Turbine Numbers (Swaffham equivalents)
Sheet1
CountryInstalled MWInstalled MW
20002001
Germany61138754
Spain22353337
Denmark23002417
Italy427697
Netherlands446493
UK406474
Sweden231290
Greece189272
Portugal100125
Ireland118125
Austria7794
France6678
Finland3839
Belgium1331
Luxembourg1015
1276917241
ProjectsTurbinesMegawattsGenerationHomes Equivalent
72945493.41.29TWh323,8031,340,417
1.29
29.8460222887
CountryInstalled MWInstalled MW
20002001
Germany611387547003.2
Spain223533372669.6
Denmark230024171933.6
Italy427697557.6
Netherlands446493394.4
UK406474379.2
Sweden231290232
Greece189272217.6
Portugal100125100
Ireland118125100
Austria779475.2
France667862.4
Finland383931.2
Belgium133124.8
Luxembourg101512
Sheet1
2000
2001
Sheet2
Number of Turbine Equivalents
Turbine Numbers (Swaffham equivalents)
Sheet3
OrderTechnology BandNo. of ProjectsCapacity MW (DNC)
Hydro
NFFO-1Hydro2110.001H10.00100000
000000
ize=-1>10.001000000
000000
LFG1930.776Wa030.7760000
000000
MIW440.63Wa040.630000
000000
Other445.48Wa045.480000
000000
SGas65.98Wa05.980000
000000
Wind58.138Wi008.138000
000000
Totals :59141.005000000
000000
NFFO-2Hydro1010.457H10.45700000
000000
LFG2646.393Wa046.3930000
000000
MIW231.5Wa031.50000
000000
Other112.5Wa012.50000
000000
SGas1819.059Wa019.0590000
000000
Wind2352.452Wi0052.452000
000000
Totals :80172.361000000
000000
NFFO-3ECAFW - Gasification18Wa080000
000000
ECAFW - Other269.5Wa069.50000
000000
Hydro811.738H11.73800000
000000
LFG4282.071Wa082.0710000
000000
MIW677.419Wa077.4190000
000000
Wind Large1041.021WiL00041.02100
000000
Wind Small109.47Wis00009.470
000000
Totals :79299.219000000
000000
NFFO-4Hydro72.102H2.10200000
000000
LFG51135.711Wa0135.7110000
000000
MIW - CHP214.98Wa014.980000
000000
Wind Large12.528WiL0002.52800
000000
Wind Small42.755WiS00002.7550
000000
Totals :65158.076000000
000000
NFFO-5Hydro20.4H0.400000
000000
LFG4488.653Wa088.6530000
000000
Wind Small21.69WiS00001.690
000000
Totals :4890.743000000
000000
NI-NFFO-1Hydro71.89H1.8900000
000000
Wind612.664Wi0012.664000
000000
Totals :1314.554000000
000000
NI-NFFO-2Biomass20.304Wa00.3040000
000000
Hydro10.075H0.07500000
000000
Wind22.567Wi002.567000
000000
Totals :52.946000000
000000
SRO-1Biomass19.8Wa09.80000
000000
Hydro64.04H4.0400000
000000
Wind725.13Wi0025.13000
000000
WTE23.78Wa03.780000
000000
Totals :1642.75000000
000000
SRO-2Hydro10.83H0.8300000
000000
WTE415Wa0150000
000000
Totals :515.83000000
000000
SRO-3Wave10.2Wave000000.2
000000
Wind Large18.29WiL0008.2900
000000
Wind Small32.47WiS00002.470
000000
WTE26.12Wa06.120000
000000
Totals :717.08000000
000000
Grand Total377954.641.533743.656100.95151.83916.3850.20
954.564
Chart1
61138754
22353337
23002417
427697
446493
406474
231290
189272
100125
118125
7794
6678
3839
1331
1015
2000
2001
MW
Sheet1
CountryInstalled MWInstalled MW
20002001
Germany61138754
Spain22353337
Denmark23002417
Italy427697
Netherlands446493
UK406474
Sweden231290
Greece189272
Portugal100125
Ireland118125
Austria7794
France6678
Finland3839
Belgium1331
Luxembourg1015
1276917241
ProjectsTurbinesMegawattsGenerationHomes Equivalent
72945493.41.29TWh323,8031,340,417
1.29
29.8460222887
CountryInstalled MWInstalled MW
20002001
Germany611387547003.2
Spain223533372669.6
Denmark230024171933.6
Italy427697557.6
Netherlands446493394.4
UK406474379.2
Sweden231290232
Greece189272217.6
Portugal100125100
Ireland118125100
Austria779475.2
France667862.4
Finland383931.2
Belgium133124.8
Luxembourg101512
Sheet1
2000
2001
MW
Sheet2
Number of Turbine Equivalents
Turbine Numbers (Swaffham equivalents)
Sheet4
OrderTechnology BandNo. of ProjectsCapacity MW (DNC)
HydroMIWLFGBIOMass
NFFO-1Hydro2110.001H10.00100000000
000000000
ize=-1>10.001000000000
000000000
LFG1930.776LFG000000030.7760
000000000
MIW440.63MIW00000040.6300
000000000
Other445.48Wa045.480000000
000000000
SGas65.98Wa05.980000000
000000000
Wind58.138Wi008.138000000
000000000
Totals :59141.005000000000
000000000
NFFO-2Hydro1010.457H10.45700000000
000000000
LFG2646.393LFG000000046.3930
000000000
MIW231.5MIW00000031.500
000000000
Other112.5Wa012.50000000
000000000
SGas1819.059Wa019.0590000000
000000000
Wind2352.452Wi0052.452000000
000000000
Totals :80172.361000000000
000000000
NFFO-3ECAFW - Gasification18Wa080000000
000000000
ECAFW - Other269.5Wa069.50000000
000000000
Hydro811.738H11.73800000000
000000000
LFG4282.071LFG000000082.0710
000000000
MIW677.419MIW00000077.41900
000000000
Wind Large1041.021WiL00041.02100000
000000000
Wind Small109.47Wis00009.470000
000000000
Totals :79299.219000000000
000000000
NFFO-4Hydro72.102H2.10200000000
000000000
LFG51135.711LFG0000000135.7110
000000000
MIW - CHP214.98MIW00000014.9800
000000000
Wind Large12.528WiL0002.52800000
000000000
Wind Small42.755WiS00002.7550000
000000000
Totals :65158.076000000000
000000000
NFFO-5Hydro20.4H0.400000000
000000000
LFG4488.653LFG000000088.6530
000000000
Wind Small21.69WiS00001.690000
000000000
Totals :4890.743000000000
000000000
NI-NFFO-1Hydro71.89H1.8900000000
000000000
Wind612.664Wi0012.664000000
000000000
Totals :1314.554000000000
000000000
NI-NFFO-2Biomass20.304BIO000000000.304
000000000
Hydro10.075H0.07500000000
000000000
Wind22.567Wi002.567000000
000000000
Totals :52.946000000000
000000000
SRO-1Biomass19.8BIO000000009.8
000000000
Hydro64.04H4.0400000000
000000000
Wind725.13Wi0025.13000000
000000000
WTE23.78Wa03.780000000
000000000
Totals :1642.75000000000
000000000
SRO-2Hydro10.83H0.8300000000
000000000
WTE415Wa0150000000
000000000
Totals :515.83000000000
000000000
SRO-3Wave10.2Wave000000.2000
000000000
Wind Large18.29WiL0008.2900000
000000000
Wind Small32.47WiS00002.470000
000000000
WTE26.12Wa06.120000000
000000000
Totals :717.08000000000
000000000
Grand Total377954.641.533185.419100.95151.83916.3850.2164.529383.60410.104
396.327
bionass10.104
hydro41.533
MIW164.529
LFG383.604
Wave0.2
Wind169.175
Total769.145
Sheet3
areaaverage output
104.920.810.28224.63711.1
NorfolkBreckland113,654443282961,7982,467xcel.numberformat: #,##0" width=72>2,467
Broadland113,896423462811,6612,330
Great Yarmouth89,301362532321,4381,958
Kings Lynn & West Norfolk131,214493883742,1522,964
North Norfolk96,913332873012,0482,669
Norwich126,221483382721,8622,521
South Norfolk105,778383162661,6252,246
776,977
59000000220000002.6818181818590000003505932.2033898305
11365442379.457627118640000.16951783052200000088
776977289720.23728813640001.1588809492
681924000681924MWh
207.5872146119
651001.0634734776
Mtonnes of Oil Equivalent200020102020
Production29018370
Demand244257266
Exports46
Imports74196
Imports as % Demand-19%29%74%
Gas Demand:95109125
Gas as % Demand39%42%47%
% Electricity Produced by Gascould be as high as~75% in 2020
-
How are we going to meet these demands for electricity in the future? The Energy Review indicates 10% by renewables by 2010 and 20% by 2020.
In order to get more than 10% of electricity from renewables by 2010 and 20% by 2020, build rates for the leading options would need to be at levels never before seen in the UK. Onshore and offshore wind would need to be installed at a rate of between 1-2 GW per year (i.e. 1000 - 1500 turbines the size of Swaffham every year).
However, 1.5 GW and 1.6 GW of onshore wind was built in Germany in 1999 and 2000 respectively, and a further 1.2 GW was installed in the first eight months of this year (2001). Build rates of 1 GW per year were also seen Spain in 2000, and 600MW in Denmark in the same year.
-
Increase in Renewable Component for Electricity Generation to meet Government Target of 10% by 2010Note: If we meet this target, it will hardly change the non-renewable component - i.e. the renewable deployment will just keep pace with increase in demand.Even if we do meet target (which is far from certain), our CO2 emissions will rise following from closure of nuclear plant.
Chart1
21.2350.81999344.8
22353.22000347.3
22.5355.72001349.4
23358.26.7342.1
23.9360.67342.6
24.4363.17.5343.1
24.9365.68343.7
25.5368.59342.7
26.4371.410341.7
27374.311340.6
27.6377.312341.5
28.1380.313342.3
TWh
Renewable Electricity
TWh
Non-Renewable Electricity
UK Annual Consumption (TWh)
Sheet1
1 deg every 4 minutes
120
180
240
diameterdistanceangle
7010019.29
7015013.13
702009.93
702507.97
703006.65
703505.71
704005.00206.66666666670.0053272451
704504.45
705004.00
705503.64
706003.34
706503.08
707002.86
data
TWhTWhTWhRenewable ElectricityTWhTWhTWh%Non-Renewable Electricity
1999300.521.229.1350.86344.8
2000301.92229.3353.25.9347.3
200130422.529.2355.76.3349.4
2002306.12329358.216.16.79.43.1342.1
2003307.923.928.9360.6187113.6342.6
2004309.724.429.1363.1207.512.54343.1
2005311.824.928.9365.621.9813.94.5343.7
2006314.325.528.7368.525.8916.85.3342.7
2007316.426.428.6371.429.71019.76.2341.7
2008318.92728.4374.333.71122.77.1340.6
2009321.427.628.3377.335.81223.87.4341.5
2010323.628.128.5380.33813257.7342.3
250000002853.8812785388
4756.4687975647
3805.1750380518
475.6468797565
data
TWh
Renewable Electricity
TWh
Non-Renewable Electricity
UK Annual Consumption (TWh)
2001
EstimatedEstimatedEstimated Estimated Renewables Contri- Contri- RO as
Sales by Consump0sses Total Target (tobutionbution % of
Licensed tion byElectricity reach 10% from Non-from Sales
Suppliersauto Available in 2010) EligibleEligible
generatorsRenewables Renewables
Required
TWh TWhTWhTWh TWh TWh TWh %
1999 300.521.229.1350.8 6.0
2000 301.92229.3353.2 5.9
2001 304.022.529.2355.7 6.3
2002 306.12329358.2 16.1 6.7 9.43.1
2003 307.923.928.9360.6 18.0 7.0 11.03.6
2004 309.724.429.1363.1 20.0 7.5 12.54
2005 311.824.928.9365.6 21.9 8.0 13.94.5
2006 314.325.528.7368.5 25.8 9.0 16.85.3
2007 316.426.428.6371.4 29.7 10.0 19.76.2
2008 318.92728.4374.3 33.7 11.0 22.77.1
2009 321.427.628.3377.3 35.8 12.0 23.87.4
2010 323.628.128.5380.3 38.0 13.0 25.07.7
by licensed (GB)as %of sales (GB)
suppliersin GB
TWh TWh %
2001/2002310.9
2002/2003313.69.43
2003/2004316.213.54.3
2004/2005318.715.64.9
2005/2006320.617.75.5
2006/2007321.421.56.7
2007/2008322.225.47.9
2008/200932329.49.1
2009/2010323.831.59.7
2010/2011324.333.610.4
2011/2012to 202Jun-2027 10.4
-
Distribution of Renewable Projects
-
The UK target for New Renewables set in 1993, was the building of 1500MW of new renewable capacity by 2000.How did we do?
tab10_2
Table 10.2
Renewables Obligation Status Summary as at 30 June 2000
TechnologyContractedProjectsLive Projects
No.Capacity MW DNCNo.Capacity MW DNC
Biomass32255.96664.284
Hydro14695.4125638.798
Landfill Gas (LFG)329699.713154322.378
Municipal and Industrial Waste (MIW)901398.15915190.349
Sewage Gas3133.8642425.039
Wave32--
Wind3021153.73869161.2
Total9333638.846324802.048
TechnologyProjectsCapacity MW
Biomass664.284
Hydro5638.798
Landfill Gas (LFG)154322.378
Municipal and Industrial Waste (MIW)15190.349
Sewage Gas2425.039
Wave--
Wind69161.2
Total324802.048
compared to planned1500
Sheet1
1 deg every 4 minutes
120
180
240
diameterdistanceangle
7010019.29
7015013.13
702009.93
702507.97
703006.65
703505.71
704005.00206.66666666670.0053272451
704504.45
705004.00
705503.64
706003.34
706503.08
707002.86
data
TWhTWhTWhRenewable ElectricityTWhTWhTWh%Non-Renewable Electricity
1999300.521.229.1350.86344.8
2000301.92229.3353.25.9347.3
200130422.529.2355.76.3349.4
2002306.12329358.216.16.79.43.1342.1
2003307.923.928.9360.6187113.6342.6
2004309.724.429.1363.1207.512.54343.1
2005311.824.928.9365.621.9813.94.5343.7
2006314.325.528.7368.525.8916.85.3342.7
2007316.426.428.6371.429.71019.76.2341.7
2008318.92728.4374.333.71122.77.1340.6
2009321.427.628.3377.335.81223.87.4341.5
2010323.628.128.5380.33813257.7342.3
250000002853.8812785388
4756.4687975647
3805.1750380518
475.6468797565
data
TWh
Renewable Electricity
TWh
Non-Renewable Electricity
UK Annual Consumption (TWh)
2001
EstimatedEstimatedEstimated Estimated Renewables Contri- Contri- RO as
Sales by Consump0sses Total Target (tobutionbution % of
Licensed tion byElectricity reach 10% from Non-from Sales
Suppliersauto Available in 2010) EligibleEligible
generatorsRenewables Renewables
Required
TWh TWhTWhTWh TWh TWh TWh %
1999 300.521.229.1350.8 6.0
2000 301.92229.3353.2 5.9
2001 304.022.529.2355.7 6.3
2002 306.12329358.2 16.1 6.7 9.43.1
2003 307.923.928.9360.6 18.0 7.0 11.03.6
2004 309.724.429.1363.1 20.0 7.5 12.54
2005 311.824.928.9365.6 21.9 8.0 13.94.5
2006 314.325.528.7368.5 25.8 9.0 16.85.3
2007 316.426.428.6371.4 29.7 10.0 19.76.2
2008 318.92728.4374.3 33.7 11.0 22.77.1
2009 321.427.628.3377.3 35.8 12.0 23.87.4
2010 323.628.128.5380.3 38.0 13.0 25.07.7
by licensed (GB)as %of sales (GB)
suppliersin GB
TWh TWh %
2001/2002310.9
2002/2003313.69.43
2003/2004316.213.54.3
2004/2005318.715.64.9
2005/2006320.617.75.5
2006/2007321.421.56.7
2007/2008322.225.47.9
2008/200932329.49.1
2009/2010323.831.59.7
2010/2011324.333.610.4
2011/2012to 202Jun-2027 10.4
tab10_2
Table 10.2
Renewables Obligation Status Summary as at 30 June 2000
TechnologyContractedProjectsLive Projects
No.Capacity MW DNCNo.Capacity MW DNC
Biomass32255.96664.284
Hydro14695.4125638.798
Landfill Gas (LFG)329699.713154322.378
Municipal and Industrial Waste (MIW)901398.15915190.349
Sewage Gas3133.8642425.039
Wave32--
Wind3021153.73869161.2
Total9333638.846324802.048
Position at 30th June 2000
TechnologyProjectsCapacity MW
Biomass664.284
Hydro5638.798
Landfill Gas (LFG)154322.378
Municipal and Industrial Waste (MIW)15190.349
Sewage Gas2425.039
Wave--
Wind69161.2
Total324802.048
compared to planned1500
As of 30th September 2001377954.6
-
Proposed Offshore Wind Turbine locationsEast of England contribution to renewables target for UK for 2010 is 14% (reflecting in part its population).Onshore windOffshore WindBiomassAround 1700 GWh will need to come from onshore wind representing 110+ Turbines the size of Swaffham in Norfolk.
-
Digital Map of part of Norfolk
Norwich is in bottom left hand corner
Area: 105 sq kmsA Strategic assessment of Wind Energy / Biomass Potential
-
Number of Turbines65
Mean output 24.4 MW
Area for Turbines20.7 sq kmMinimum exclusion zone (400m) around houses/towns.We could add other Planning exclusions etc - areas of particular landscape value etc.
-
Number of Turbines33
Mean output 12.4 MW
Area for Turbines10.2 sq kmLarge exclusion zone (800m) around houses/towns.
-
How many turbines would be needed if Breckland were to be self sufficient - domestic and commercial Turbine sizes:Double the size of turbine - the output goes up 4 times but spacing between turbines must be increasedHowever, the number of turbines is greatly reduced.If wind speed doubles, the output goes up 8 times Increasing height of turbine for same diameter (e.g. 85m compared to 67m will increase output by 6 - 10%about 180 - 200 Turbines of the size of Swaffham
-
Distraction to driversDanger to birdsRadio/Television/Radar InterferenceNoise - mechanical, aerodynamic, ..infra-sound?Flickering - only relevant within buildings and then only in a precise orientation at selected times of the year.Danger of ice throw - not really a problem as other constraints will mean that a sufficient exclusion zone is present anywayBlade failureAesthetics - one blade, two blades, three blades, Darrieus, Musgrove?
Key Environmental Issues - some of main issues against
-
Noise issues:Mechanical
Aerodynamic
Infra-soundProblem with high-speed gearboxes in fixed velocity machines.Not an issue with Swaffham/ proposed turbines at Shipdham.
Maximum rotation speeds of gearboxless turbines are at a maximum 70% of normal wind turbines, and often much less - hence much less swish noise.
This is a subject which is not fully understood - it is at a frequency which would NOT be detected by normal ground vibration.Noise Contours for a cluster of three turbines at Shipdham
-
Ice can form but if this occurs when stationary, the machine will not startif it forms in operation, then the out of balance on blades is detected and the machine will stop in a few revolutions.Worse case scenario would cause ice to be thrown distances much less than the exclusion zone for noise.
-
One Blade, or Two, or Three?
-
Or do we prefer vertical axis machines?
-
Offsets the use of fossil fuels and consequential gaseous emissions of CO2, SO2, NOx, CO, NMHC etc. Arguements that fossil fuel power stations have to be kept ready in case wind drops are completely INVALID. Power stations running under lower load use less fuel and it is this which causes the emissions.Improves diversity of supply of electricity will become of increasing importance in futureIs becoming technically mature unlike most other renewable technologies (other than energy from waste incineration and hydro)Is the most cost effective Renewable Option currently available, and will remain so for next decade +As electricity will used locally, reduces transmission losses.Key Environmental Issues of Wind Energy - positive aspects
-
What are Our Priorities?Should we be more concerned with present or future generations?Are we concerned about CO2 emissions?Global warming - probably making UK colder and wetter - sea level rise - more frequent floodingDo we want many more Wind Turbines? ~ 500 - 1000 + per year on land initially - and eventually say 2003/4 + in increasing numbers at sea?Do we want to see continued development of renewable energy and On shore Wind Energy in particular? - this is the most cost effective renewable and only a little more expensive than coal generation.
-
Energy from Waste Incineration/ Land Fill Gas?Extensive use of Biomass (still in its infancy) - large areas of countryside used for growing energyPhotovoltaics are very expensiveother technologies either have insufficient resource (hydro) or are technically constrained at present (Wave, Tidal Stream) .If the answer to the above results in small amounts being available then it we shall see an increase in CO2 and other gases by 2020UNLESSIf our answer in No. How are we going to reduce our CO2 emissions?
-
Do we want Nuclear Power (French Method)?If our answer is NOWill we be happy to have 80% of our gas (which will then also supply 75% of our electricity) supplied from countries such as Russia, Middle East, Libya, or Algeria? If our answer is NO.Do we want to go back to using coal for electricity generation?.BUT: Are we confident that viable carbon sequestration techniques will become available?AND: Do we want more coal mines / coal fields - North Norfolk?If our answer is still NOWe continue to exploit gas at increasing rates for the generation of electricity. We will become a net importer before 2010.
-
Remember 500 Wind Turbines the size of Swaffham.If we all switched our TVs off , rather than leaving them on standby, it would save the equivalent of one power station output.Advertisement from National PressHow do we persuade people to conserve energy.It is a primarily social issue of individual responsibility.not just a technical or governmental issue.
-
In conclusionWe have difficult choices to make.No one solution is free of problemsWhat is the best way forward which will provide security of energy supply for the future and yet recognise the concerns of individuals both locally and nationally?If we are not positive about our approach then there is every chance we shall suffer the California Syndrome.Major problems have occurred in recent years in the supply of electricity because no significant new generation (of any form) has been built in California for over 10 years. New build has been constrained by environmental regulation and high levels of local opposition (by companies and consumers) to siting of new generation.
-
Chart1
25528
25060
26713
28241
28606
28594
28030
27827
27408
27100
27285
27983
30217
33031
36878
39153
40096
39826
40292
40450
40381
40441
40473
40486
40355
39983
39562
39258
39613
39294
39044
39152
39593
39887
39680
38820
38132
37397
36859
36822
37723
39521
38784
36992
35467
33378
31375
29247
27728
27393
28917
30418
30756
30568
30089
29852
29376
29021
29127
29549
31512
34082
37683
39720
40282
39798
40026
39955
39627
39583
39543
39594
39662
39064
38639
38375
38625
38267
37890
April 15th 2002
April 16th 2002
demand
Time
MW
prices
HDRSYSTEM BUY SELL DATA
SSB2002041518.8358618.21
SSB2002041529.0208617.99
SSB2002041539.59914150
SSB2002041549.629929.62992
SSB2002041559.382329.38232
SSB2002041569.384129.38412
SSB2002041579.681579.68157
SSB2002041589.464159.46415
SSB2002041599.562429.56242
SSB20020415109.171219.17121
SSB20020415119.260049.26004
SSB20020415129.749369.74936
SSB200204151310.0391110.03911
SSB200204151410.7813124.46951
SSB200204151511.4074124.26716
SSB200204151614.0292427.40173
SSB200204151711.6049435.62056
SSB200204151811.2296130.38519
SSB200204151911.9298611.92986
SSB200204152011.2585311.25853
SSB200204152111.5348511.53485
SSB200204152211.4945311.49453
SSB200204152310.8509610.85096
SSB200204152410.789110.7891
SSB200204152510.6210510.62105
SSB200204152610.4523910.45239
SSB200204152710.6774410.67744
SSB200204152810.6842516.5546
SSB200204152911.0403516.54191
SSB200204153011.6660816.81551
SSB200204153112.4216817.43223
SSB200204153212.2010617.49
SSB200204153312.0350821.12649
SSB200204153412.0243324.51688
SSB200204153510.8611126.82
SSB200204153610.4942525.17
SSB200204153710.4179710.41797
SSB200204153810.3290110.32901
SSB20020415396.2642627.72
SSB200204154010.10910.109
SSB20020415419.9786833.44425
SSB200204154211.29473118.68052
SSB200204154311.0752825.46662
SSB200204154410.9454210.94542
SSB200204154511.3389826.48484
SSB200204154610.496124.79493
SSB200204154710.5103818.76118
SSB20020415489.6786919.51074
SSB2002041618.9483418.48
SSB2002041628.9752731.1543
SSB2002041639.4392531.7
SSB2002041649.3050528.19016
SSB2002041658.9298317.12851
SSB2002041669.103669.10366
SSB2002041678.975818.97581
SSB2002041688.992288.99228
SSB2002041699.071279.07127
SSB20020416109.026289.02628
SSB20020416119.747039.74703
SSB20020416129.774829.77482
SSB20020416139.958339.95833
SSB200204161410.1168665.36175
SSB20020416159.9416451.72401
SSB200204161611.4675328.62845
SSB200204161712.135755.1791
SSB200204161811.8554452.23
FTR66
demand
HDRINITIAL DEMAND OUTTURN
demandbuying priceselling price
INDO2002041510:30255288.8358618.21
INDO2002041521:00250609.0208617.99
INDO2002041531:30267139.59914150
INDO2002041542:00282419.629929.62992
INDO2002041552:30286069.382329.38232
INDO2002041563:00285949.384129.38412
INDO2002041573:30280309.681579.68157
INDO2002041584:00278279.464159.46415
INDO2002041594:30274089.562429.56242
INDO20020415105:00271009.171219.17121
INDO20020415115:30272859.260049.26004
INDO20020415126:00279839.749369.74936
INDO20020415136:303021710.0391110.03911
INDO20020415147:003303110.7813124.46951
INDO20020415157:303687811.4074124.26716
INDO20020415168:003915314.0292427.40173
INDO20020415178:304009611.6049435.62056
INDO20020415189:003982611.2296130.38519
INDO20020415199:304029211.9298611.92986
INDO200204152010:004045011.2585311.25853
INDO200204152110:304038111.5348511.53485
INDO200204152211:004044111.4945311.49453
INDO200204152311:304047310.8509610.85096
INDO200204152412:004048610.789110.7891
INDO200204152512:304035510.6210510.62105
INDO200204152613:003998310.4523910.45239
INDO200204152713:303956210.6774410.67744
INDO200204152814:003925810.6842516.5546
INDO200204152914:303961311.0403516.54191
INDO200204153015:003929411.6660816.81551
INDO200204153115:303904412.4216817.43223
INDO200204153216:003915212.2010617.49
INDO200204153316:303959312.0350821.12649
INDO200204153417:003988712.0243324.51688
INDO200204153517:303968010.8611126.82
INDO200204153618:003882010.4942525.17
INDO200204153718:303813210.4179710.41797
INDO200204153819:003739710.3290110.32901
INDO200204153919:30368596.2642627.72
INDO200204154020:003682210.10910.109
INDO200204154120:30377239.9786833.44425
INDO200204154221:003952111.29473118.68052
INDO200204154321:303878411.0752825.46662
INDO200204154422:003699210.9454210.94542
INDO200204154522:303546711.3389826.48484
INDO200204154623:003337810.496124.79493
INDO200204154723:303137510.5103818.76118
INDO20020415480:00292479.6786919.51074
INDO2002041610:30277288.9483418.48
INDO2002041621:00273938.9752731.1543
INDO2002041631:30289179.4392531.7
INDO2002041642:00304189.3050528.19016
INDO2002041652:30307568.9298317.12851
INDO2002041663:00305689.103669.10366
INDO2002041673:30300898.975818.97581
INDO2002041684:00298528.992288.99228
INDO2002041694:30293769.071279.07127
INDO20020416105:00290219.026289.02628
INDO20020416115:30291279.747039.74703
INDO20020416126:00295499.774829.77482
INDO20020416136:30315129.958339.95833
INDO20020416147:003408210.1168665.36175
INDO20020416157:30376839.9416451.72401
INDO20020416168:003972011.4675328.62845
INDO20020416178:304028212.135755.1791
INDO20020416189:003979811.8554452.23
FTR66199:304002611.1694152.23
2010:003995510.6883955.2605
2110:303962710.3238856.56333
2211:003958310.293456.56333
2311:303954310.3226425.06333
2412:003959410.4724525.06333
2512:303966210.2317325.06333
2613:00390649.9643625.06333
2713:30386399.6899220.79669
2814:00383759.6740221.83333
2914:30386259.7487721.83333
3015:00382679.8075621.19727
3115:30378909.7521520.8303
demand
April 15th 2002
April 16th 2002
demand
Time
MW
April 15th 2002
April 16th 2002
buying price
selling price
Time
per MWh
Chart2
8.8358618.21
9.0208617.99
9.59914150
9.629929.62992
9.382329.38232
9.384129.38412
9.681579.68157
9.464159.46415
9.562429.56242
9.171219.17121
9.260049.26004
9.749369.74936
10.0391110.03911
10.7813124.46951
11.4074124.26716
14.0292427.40173
11.6049435.62056
11.2296130.38519
11.9298611.92986
11.2585311.25853
11.5348511.53485
11.4945311.49453
10.8509610.85096
10.789110.7891
10.6210510.62105
10.4523910.45239
10.6774410.67744
10.6842516.5546
11.0403516.54191
11.6660816.81551
12.4216817.43223
12.2010617.49
12.0350821.12649
12.0243324.51688
10.8611126.82
10.4942525.17
10.4179710.41797
10.3290110.32901
6.2642627.72
10.10910.109
9.9786833.44425
11.29473118.68052
11.0752825.46662
10.9454210.94542
11.3389826.48484
10.496124.79493
10.5103818.76118
9.6786919.51074
8.9483418.48
8.9752731.1543
9.4392531.7
9.3050528.19016
8.9298317.12851
9.103669.10366
8.975818.97581
8.992288.99228
9.071279.07127
9.026289.02628
9.747039.74703
9.774829.77482
9.958339.95833
10.1168665.36175
9.9416451.72401
11.4675328.62845
12.135755.1791
11.8554452.23
11.1694152.23
10.6883955.2605
10.3238856.56333
10.293456.56333
10.3226425.06333
10.4724525.06333
10.2317325.06333
9.9643625.06333
9.6899220.79669
9.6740221.83333
9.7487721.83333
9.8075621.19727
9.7521520.8303
April 15th 2002
April 16th 2002
buying price
selling price
Time
per MWh
prices
HDRSYSTEM BUY SELL DATA
SSB2002041518.8358618.21
SSB2002041529.0208617.99
SSB2002041539.59914150
SSB2002041549.629929.62992
SSB2002041559.382329.38232
SSB2002041569.384129.38412
SSB2002041579.681579.68157
SSB2002041589.464159.46415
SSB2002041599.562429.56242
SSB20020415109.171219.17121
SSB20020415119.260049.26004
SSB20020415129.749369.74936
SSB200204151310.0391110.03911
SSB200204151410.7813124.46951
SSB200204151511.4074124.26716
SSB200204151614.0292427.40173
SSB200204151711.6049435.62056
SSB200204151811.2296130.38519
SSB200204151911.9298611.92986
SSB200204152011.2585311.25853
SSB200204152111.5348511.53485
SSB200204152211.4945311.49453
SSB200204152310.8509610.85096
SSB200204152410.789110.7891
SSB200204152510.6210510.62105
SSB200204152610.4523910.45239
SSB200204152710.6774410.67744
SSB200204152810.6842516.5546
SSB200204152911.0403516.54191
SSB200204153011.6660816.81551
SSB200204153112.4216817.43223
SSB200204153212.2010617.49
SSB200204153312.0350821.12649
SSB200204153412.0243324.51688
SSB200204153510.8611126.82
SSB200204153610.4942525.17
SSB200204153710.4179710.41797
SSB200204153810.3290110.32901
SSB20020415396.2642627.72
SSB200204154010.10910.109
SSB20020415419.9786833.44425
SSB200204154211.29473118.68052
SSB200204154311.0752825.46662
SSB200204154410.9454210.94542
SSB200204154511.3389826.48484
SSB200204154610.496124.79493
SSB200204154710.5103818.76118
SSB20020415489.6786919.51074
SSB2002041618.9483418.48
SSB2002041628.9752731.1543
SSB2002041639.4392531.7
SSB2002041649.3050528.19016
SSB2002041658.9298317.12851
SSB2002041669.103669.10366
SSB2002041678.975818.97581
SSB2002041688.992288.99228
SSB2002041699.071279.07127
SSB20020416109.026289.02628
SSB20020416119.747039.74703
SSB20020416129.774829.77482
SSB20020416139.958339.95833
SSB200204161410.1168665.36175
SSB20020416159.9416451.72401
SSB200204161611.4675328.62845
SSB200204161712.135755.1791
SSB200204161811.8554452.23
FTR66
demand
HDRINITIAL DEMAND OUTTURN
demandbuying priceselling price
INDO2002041510:30255288.8358618.21
INDO2002041521:00250609.0208617.99
INDO2002041531:30267139.59914150
INDO2002041542:00282419.629929.62992
INDO2002041552:30286069.382329.38232
INDO2002041563:00285949.384129.38412
INDO2002041573:30280309.681579.68157
INDO2002041584:00278279.464159.46415
INDO2002041594:30274089.562429.56242
INDO20020415105:00271009.171219.17121
INDO20020415115:30272859.260049.26004
INDO20020415126:00279839.749369.74936
INDO20020415136:303021710.0391110.03911
INDO20020415147:003303110.7813124.46951
INDO20020415157:303687811.4074124.26716
INDO20020415168:003915314.0292427.40173
INDO20020415178:304009611.6049435.62056
INDO20020415189:003982611.2296130.38519
INDO20020415199:304029211.9298611.92986
INDO200204152010:004045011.2585311.25853
INDO200204152110:304038111.5348511.53485
INDO200204152211:004044111.4945311.49453
INDO200204152311:304047310.8509610.85096
INDO200204152412:004048610.789110.7891
INDO200204152512:304035510.6210510.62105
INDO200204152613:003998310.4523910.45239
INDO200204152713:303956210.6774410.67744
INDO200204152814:003925810.6842516.5546
INDO200204152914:303961311.0403516.54191
INDO200204153015:003929411.6660816.81551
INDO200204153115:303904412.4216817.43223
INDO200204153216:003915212.2010617.49
INDO200204153316:303959312.0350821.12649
INDO200204153417:003988712.0243324.51688
INDO200204153517:303968010.8611126.82
INDO200204153618:003882010.4942525.17
INDO200204153718:303813210.4179710.41797
INDO200204153819:003739710.3290110.32901
INDO200204153919:30368596.2642627.72
INDO200204154020:003682210.10910.109
INDO200204154120:30377239.9786833.44425
INDO200204154221:003952111.29473118.68052
INDO200204154321:303878411.0752825.46662
INDO200204154422:003699210.9454210.94542
INDO200204154522:303546711.3389826.48484
INDO200204154623:003337810.496124.79493
INDO200204154723:303137510.5103818.76118
INDO20020415480:00292479.6786919.51074
INDO2002041610:30277288.9483418.48
INDO2002041621:00273938.9752731.1543
INDO2002041631:30289179.4392531.7
INDO2002041642:00304189.3050528.19016
INDO2002041652:30307568.9298317.12851
INDO2002041663:00305689.103669.10366
INDO2002041673:30300898.975818.97581
INDO2002041684:00298528.992288.99228
INDO2002041694:30293769.071279.07127
INDO20020416105:00290219.026289.02628
INDO20020416115:30291279.747039.74703
INDO20020416126:00295499.774829.77482
INDO20020416136:30315129.958339.95833
INDO20020416147:003408210.1168665.36175
INDO20020416157:30376839.9416451.72401
INDO20020416168:003972011.4675328.62845
INDO20020416178:304028212.135755.1791
INDO20020416189:003979811.8554452.23
FTR66199:304002611.1694152.23
2010:003995510.6883955.2605
2110:303962710.3238856.56333
2211:003958310.293456.56333
2311:303954310.3226425.06333
2412:003959410.4724525.06333
2512:303966210.2317325.06333
2613:00390649.9643625.06333
2713:30386399.6899220.79669
2814:00383759.6740221.83333
2914:30386259.7487721.83333
3015:00382679.8075621.19727
3115:30378909.7521520.8303
demand
April 15th 2002
April 16th 2002
demand
Time
MW
April 15th 2002
April 16th 2002
buying price
selling price
Time
per MWh