“School Enrolments and Trends”

SPOA & CEFPI

Spring, 2009

The Enrolment Challenge

Strong futures are built upon ashared understanding of present realities

ENROLMENT

GOVERNMENTFUNDING

FACILITIES

Share information about recent history and future projections

The challenge we face, given the provincial funding formula and a long-term decline in enrolment

A Puzzle of the future shape of district programs and facilities

Demographic Trends

We’ve Been Living a ‘Boom, Bust and Echo’

The ‘Boom, Bust & Echo:

Baby Boomers born between 1947 to 1966

Peaked in 1959 with 480,000 Canadian births

Bust Generation 1967 to 1979 –

child bearing declined to 1.6 children per couple.

Echo Boomer Children 1980 to 1995

Peaked in 1990 with 405,000 Canadian births

By 1997 Births were 13 percent below this peak

Peak Births are now 19 years old

The Demographic Future

We’ll be facing both declining elementary and declining secondary enrolments much as we did in the mid-1970s when the Boomer parents of the Echo students completed their elementary and secondary education.

Boomers moved to the suburbs to raise their Echo children, these population trends are likely to be especially apparent in Canada's suburbs.

Current age distribution provides an excellent road map for future planning and education funding as long as we use local

demographic information for our planning.

“The Population Pyramid”

“The Future Population Pyramid”

http://www.footwork.com/pyramids.asp

School District Enrolment Issues

Economic Changes Affecting Growth

Open Boundaries

Enrolment Flow Patterns

Increase of Magnet Programs

Facility Consolidations, if not already undertaken

Look Below the Surface

Total Population for All Agesis growing

School Age enrolment is declining and only justrecovers to current levels

Enrolment Projections: Total

Experience Elsewhere in BC

Enrolment Projections 2000 -2010 (1558A)

Province 2000 2010 Change

Elementary 352,426 305,959 -13%

Secondary 258,425 253,211 -2%

Saanich 2000 2010 Change

Elementary 4,968 3,794 -23%

Secondary 4,002 3,543 -11%

Independent Schools

Enrolment Projections 2000 -2010 (1558A)

Independent 2000 2010 Change

Elementary 38,962 36,787 -5.6%

Secondary 20,535 21,412+4.2%

Saanich 2000 2010 Change

Elementary 4,968 3,794 -23%

Secondary 4,002 3,543 -11%

Cross Boundary Considerations

Keating Elementary School

Early French Immersion Magnet

English Total Cross Boundary Enrolment

Economic Considerations

In-migration or Out-migration is impacted by job prospects and

housing affordability of your area.

Recession of 1982 working parents relocated to Ontario or Alberta

Compare Changes to Unemployment Rates across Canada or BC

Consider Major Industry Closures

Enrolment Flow Patterns

Background– Map of School District & Catchment Boundaries

– Location of Schools and Enrolments

– Available Before or After School Care Programs

– Proximity of Recreation Facilities

– Major Traffic School Bus or Transportation Routes

– New Locally Developed or Magnet Programs

– Parent School ‘Shopping’

School Choice Legislation

Government amended the School Act to give parents and students the freedom to choose any school provided space is available

District cannot mandate that students attend a particular school to maintain enrolment

The District spreads over4 municipalities:

• Sidney

• North Saanich

• Central Saanich

• Saanich

District Map

Enrolment Flow Patterns

Majority of Students in Southern Cordova Bay Catchment Attend Lochside

If Consistent, Legitimize through Boundary Adjustment, or Enable Open Boundaries.

Cla rem o n t S ec.Un k n o wn Ad d resses

Lo ch sid e Elem .Un k n o wn Ad d resses

0

500

1000

1500

Secondary Enrolment

Out of District 182 15 9

Out of Catchment 35 124 33

Within Catchment 871 795 752

South Zone Central North Zone

School Catchment ConsiderationsRegular Programs: Non-French Immersion

How hasGovernment Funding Changed?

Funding System up to 2001/02 recognized base fixed costs in funding allocation:

– provided base instructional cost per school– provided funding for operating and maintaining schools on a

per square meter basis– recognized the number of district schools

Current Funding System provides the majority of the funding on a per pupil basis:

– funding for operating and maintaining schools is within the base per pupil funding (about 11.5%)

– no base instructional funding base per school– enrolment decline grant for one year

District Responses

School Closures

113 Schools in B.C. closed:

- 88 Elementary Schools- 5 Middle Schools- 6 Secondary- 14 Other

Further Information

Statistics Canada www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-520-x/00105/4095252-eng.htm www12.statcan.ca/english/census06/reference/

consultation/92-135/education.cfm BC Stats – Population Statistics

www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/DATA/pop/popstart.asp Baragar Demographics

www.baragar.com David K. Foot – author, ‘Boom-Bust-Echo’

www.footwork.com