Scenarios How Accurately do they Mirror Empirical Reality · PDF fileK. Christoph Keller,...

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SCENARIOS
HOW ACCURATELY DO THEY
MIRROR EMPIRICAL REALITY
Dr. Bernhard Albert, Foresight SolutionsK. Christoph Keller, avenitureWolfgang Plger, Lab4InnovationsChristine Stuck, aveniture
Turku, 11th June 2015

Quality in Futures Studies A desideratum Most so called futures work still is superficial pop-futurism.
1st Wave of work on quality criteria summarised by Slaughter (2004:31-47).
2nd Wave quality criteria: Maturity Models (Keller 2007, Grim 2009, Rohrbeck
2011) and borrowing from (educational) evaluation (Gerhold et al. [Eds.]
2015).
Quality depends on worldview and tradition In the empirical/analytic tradition [cf. Slaughter 2004:36] of Futures Studies
and for many users in the corporate and governmental context, predictive
accuracy still serves as primary measure of quality.
Problematic only for the informed foresight consultant.
If a scenarios-method could be validated, this would serve to reduce the gap between empirical/analytic and
critical/comparative traditions of Futures Studies and their quality.
criteria 4
The Quality Criteria for Futures Studies Multiple
Perspectives in an Evolving Process
TURKU 11TH. OF JUNE 2015
WOLFGANG PLGER
CHRISTINE STUCK

Scenarios are among the most popular methods for studying the future and widely used.
For dealing with wicked problems, scenarios can integrate alternative futures and different modes of futures thinking,
creating a common understanding of the state of the present and
possibilities for future.
There is no scenarios-method but a family of methods from different origins (cf. e.g. Bishop, Hines & Collins 2007).
For this work, we have chosen archetypical scenarios (Dator1979, Inayatullah 2008).
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Scenarios
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Society: complexity and counter-intuitiveness Future is a product of the endless interaction/oscillation between individuals
and society.
Therefore it makes sense to chose a socio-cultural approach towards the
future of society.
Research intention: Investigating the predictive accuracy of scenarios with regard to patterns of
social change manifesting in socio- currents.
A case-study of archetypical scenarios (A-Scenarios) for the future of
German / European society contrasted with empirical findings (E-Scenarios)
from an representative ex-post survey on these social currents in three
European countries (DE, ES, UK) and multivariate analysis.
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The Future of Society as Wicked Problem
WOLFGANG PLGER
CHRISTINE STUCK

Focal questions why are we doing this?: How will (Western European) society evolve during the next 10-15 years?
What lies behind the social patterns, what are the mindsets that manifest in
social currents?
As the future is not pre-determined do scenarios as images of
plausible/probable/possible futures nevertheless mirror the measured
empirical reality?
If so, will that be a qualitative criteria and convince users in corporates and
public contexts?
Could that be a way to minimize futures-uncertainty?
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Case-study: Scenarios for the Futures of Society
Created from Socio-cultural Currents in Western Europe

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Overview: The Research Process as Case-study
Step ArchetypesQII 2014
S.-c.CurrentsQIII 2014
A-ScenariosQIII 2014
E-ScenariosQIII 2014 - QI
2015
ValidationQII 2015
Activities Collecting
relevant scenario
archetypes
Affinity Mapping
Reflection /
discussion
Re-framing of
archetypes
Discussion and
reflection in
group on socio-
cultural currents
Mapping socio-
cultural currents
to selected
archetypes in
group
Enrichment and
consolidation of
raw scenarios
Re-naming and
narrative writing
Empirical
Research
Large Scale
international
Survey (3
European
Countries,
n = 1300) using
Lab4Innovations
MSC instrument
Multivariate data
analysis (Factor-
Analysis)
Comparison of A-
Scenarios and E-
Scenarios
Assessing
validity of the
method used for
creating the A-
Scenarios
Deliverables Selected three
archetypes
according to
teams mental
model
Rough
description of raw
scenarios1. Fortress &
Divide
2. Return to the
Imagined Past
3. Engineered
Society
The Futures of
Society: A set of
three intuitive
scenarios1. The Closed
Society
2. The Co-
operative
Society
3. The
Individualized
Society
Empirical
Scenarios for the
Futures of
Society in every
country
This Case-study
Guidelines for
future Projects

WOLFGANG PLGER
CHRISTINE STUCK
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Team of ExpertsName,
Formal education
Company /
Position
Work & Futures
Studies Experience
Market
experience
Bernhard AlbertDr. Phil.
Foresight
Solutions,
Frankfurt am
Main, DEFounder and
Managing Director
Since 1995
Forsight for Public
sector and
corporates
Logistics,
Chemical
Industry,
Public Affairs
K. Christoph
KellerDipl.-Ing. (FH)
MPhil Futures Studies
aveniture,
Freinsheim, DEFounder and
Managing Director
Since 1998
Innovation
Management
Corp. Career
Industrial Foresight
Applied
Research,
Engineering,
Energy /
Water,
Industrie 4.0
Wolfgang PlgerDipl. Psychologist
Lab4Innovations,
Heidelberg, DEFounder and
Managing Director
Since 1990
International Milieu
and Socio-cultural
research
Public
Transport,
Finance,
Automotive
Christine StuckM.A. Comparative
Literature,
MA Cultural-/
Mediamanagement
aveniture,
Freinsheim, DEConsultant
Since 2005
International Product
Management
Analysis of Socio-
cultural Change,
Consumer Insights
FMCG,
Creatives
Industries

1. Expert workshop I: Collection of archetypes and Affinity Mapping
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Archetypal Scenarios as Basis for the Case-study (1/2)
2. Re-framing and enriching archetypes according to teams expertise and
mental model (based on criteria of
todays relevance).

3. Decision to work on with the following three archetypes:
(1) Return to the imagined past
(2) Engineered societies
(3) Fortress & Divide.
4. Reality check by revision of contemporary issues discussed in
media such as digitalization,
society drifting apart/separation,
disenchantment with politics,
post-material dynamics.
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Archetypal Scenarios as Base for the Case-study (2/2)

The Concept of Socio-cultural Currents:
Socio-cultural currents can be described as individual principles for guiding life,
changes in goals in life and basic values,
new needs and wishes for change or stability
different ways to adapt to changing environments.
Socio-cultural currents influence every-day-life of people: Work, family, leisure time, politics, health, technology and consumption.
Socio-cultural currents are constantly evolving.
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Socio-cultural Currents to Enrich and Describe the
A-Scenarios (1/4)

1. Expert workshop II: Discussion and reflection in group on socio-cultural currents.
2. Identification of 39 socio-cultural currents based on knowledge about existing mindsets (societal, technological, economical,
environmental, political drivers of change) as well as on
attitudes towards individual lifestyles.
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Socio-cultural Currents to Enrich and Describe the
A-Scenarios (2/4)

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Expressivity Environmental responsibility Belief in social climbing
Conformism Social responsibility Traditional family
Acceptance of risks Competition is good Primacy of the local
Openness for change Here and now Digital life
Less is more Digital discomfort Belief in technology
Need for meaning Transparency Need for nostalgia
Acceptance of violence Wish for performance Experience orientation
Acceptance of

Scenarios How Accurately do they Mirror Empirical Reality · PDF fileK. Christoph Keller,...

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