Scenario planning interventions in organizations An analysis of the causes of success and failure...
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![Page 1: Scenario planning interventions in organizations An analysis of the causes of success and failure George Wrighta, Kees van der Heijdenb, George Burtb,](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022080914/56649f565503460f94c7a978/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Scenario planning interventions in organizations
An analysis of the causes of success and failureGeorge Wrighta, Kees van der Heijdenb, George Burtb, Ron Bradfieldb, George Cairns
Carlos Eduardo Cunha
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Index
Inertia Giraffe in quicksand Case of success Conclusions Questions?!
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Inertia
Commitment to current strategy will grow over time Operational process become deeply embedded →
mental model’s Mental models:
prevent managers from sensing problems; delay changes in strategy; lead to action that is ineffective in a new
environment. In simpler, less turbulent environments, inertia may
allow managers to focus on the most important issues
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Inertia
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Inertia
Vigilance Careful search and use of information; There is better solution, and time for debate and search.
Hypervigilance May have better solution, but not enough time.
Defensive avoidance There is no better solution than current course.
Procrastination, buck passing, and bolstering.
Unconflicted adherence Do not change course.
Unconflicted change Change current course to unthreatened.
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Inertia
Scenario Planning Intervention would be most appropriate after there is recognition that the threat current strategy is high, but before the psychological processes takes place
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Giraffe in quicksand
Major corporation Senior management team Interviews before scenario planning
exercise Interviewees active participants in
exercise
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Giraffe in quicksand
Organization’s current strategic direction was failing;
Risks to be serious if the organization failed to change its current strategy
Risks to be serious if the organization did change its strategy
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Giraffe in quicksand
Procrastination, buck passing, and bolstering
‘Rub salt into a wound’ http://br.youtube.com/watch?v=jcdRT0Xv2RU
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Case of success
Operating in the ‘drinks’ industry Parent company’s principal role is the marketing
and branding of the group’s drinks products Mission:
Provide a quality service in the blending, bottling and storage of scotch whisky and other spirits;
Co-operate with our customers in assisting them to develop their brands;
Provide a realistic return on the company’s assets’ Long periods of small, incremental change,
interrupted by much shorter periods of discontinuous, radical change.
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Case of success
Pre-intervention interviews Workshops with an informed outsider
(remarkable person) Stimulated and Encouraged Re-consider the purpose and
objectives of the organization Shifting responsibility (buck passing)
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Conclusions
Rethinking is an appropriate, vigilant, response to the ‘jolt’ of a scenario thinking intervention
Indicated lower procrastination, buck-passing, or bolstering behavior levels
Stresses engendered by a decision dilemma → decision avoidance → poor information search and contingency planning → disabled Scenario intervention
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Conclusions
However… Team leadership Team dynamics Organizational Competence Organizational Power Organizational Architecture
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Questions?!