Scenario Planning as the Development of Leadership

Rochell R. McWhorterDorothy E. PorterSusan A. Lynham

Texas A&M University

Thomas J. ChermackColorado State University

Louis van der MerweCentre for Innovative Leadership

Copyright 2007 McWhorter, Porter, Lynham, Chermack & van der Merwe

H1: Components of the process of Scenario Planning are also components of the process of Leadership Development

H2: LD is an outcome of SP

Evidence to support hypothesis 1? Evidence to support hypothesis 2?

…Given outcomes to research questions…

…Are the guiding hypotheses reasonable and thus worthy of further inquiry?


To understand scenario planning as a process of strategy making and implementation AND of leadership development -- informs more efficient and effective practice of both

To suggest additional outcomes to scenario planning -- not previously explicitly claimed

To confirm scenario planning as an important strategic tool to HRD


◦ Successive rounds of literature review, analysis, synthesis, coding and categorization

◦ Conducted, transcribed, analyzed, coded and themed semi-structured, purposive interviews with two internationally reputed expert practitioner-scholars

…from which we …

◦ Developed a data gathering and coding heuristic based on three theoretical frameworks

A theory of scenario planning Scenario Impact Questionnaire (SIQ) OilCo. leadership model

◦ Used further triangulation of data LD and SP program Published scenarios


Heuristic

In itself supports the hypotheses; Became enabling theoretical framework to gather

and categorize further supporting evidence

A Synthesis of Three Theoretical Frameworks

What We Found…

Copyright 2007 McWhorter, Porter, Lynham, Chermack & van

der Merwe

Table 1: A Integrative Theoretical Framework of SP as the Development of Leadership

From the OilCo Model: Categories, Components and Characteristics of Leadership

Three Categories of Leadership Being

(Essence) Doing

(Process) Having

(Outcome) Four Components and Corresponding Characteristics of Leadership

From the SIQ and Theory of SP: The Processes and Outcome Components of Scenario Planning (SP)

PERSONAL QUALITIES

LEADERSHIP RESPONSIBILITIES

CORE VALUES

PREMIER RESULTS

Pro

cess

C

omp

onen

ts

of S

P

Ou

tcom

e C

omp

onen

ts

of S

P

The Heuristic in Action…


Support for H1 (Components of the process of SP are also components of the process of LD):

From literature…◦ “spending time discussing a scenario allows managers to

see long term interactions…[developing] a language in which they can later communicate among themselves to arrive quickly at decisions” (De Geus, 2002).

From interviews…◦ “people learn naturally…that the systemic view of the

world is much more useful and … assists you in making hypotheses” (IP1, 2006, p. 4)


Support for H2 (LD is an outcome of SP):

From literature…◦ “The end result of SP is not about a more accurate

picture of tomorrow but better decisions about the future” (Schwartz, 1991)

From interviews…◦ “In Art Kleiner’s article he noted that Pierre Wack saw

himself…as being the lead wolf in the wolf pack… saying ‘my job is to see and warn the pack of any dangers that are ahead’ ” (IP1, 2006, p. 3)

Applying the heuristic…


◦ SP as a way to develop strategic leadership capacity and capability

◦ Prudent for organizations to design, develop and implement these processes in an integrated and systemic way.

◦ The construct of “Scenario-based leadership”

◦ SP as a potential tool for strategic survival -- of an organization, but to that of communities, nations and even ecological systems

◦ Leadership as an essential component of scenario planning process and outcome -- to inform theory


Extend the interviews

SIQ – Further Quantitative and Qualitative analysis across multiple questionnaires

Further triangulation and saturation of data

Begin to investigate ways of testing relationship and more explicitly establish and document the nature of this relationship


Scenario Planning as the Development of Leadership

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