SCENARIO ANALYSIS - fenix.tecnico.ulisboa.pt · António Alvarenga 1st SEMESTER, 2015 ... [...

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SCENARIO ANALYSIS(Methodological tools and a language for learning and

strategic dialogue)

António Alvarenga

1st SEMESTER, 2015/2016 DECISION SUPPORT MODELS, DEPARTMENT OF ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT

Note: These slides are just a tool supporting the lectures. Not all slides will be necessarily used.

[email protected]://pt.linkedin.com/in/antonioalvarenga

1st SEMESTER, 2015/2016 DECISION SUPPORT MODELS, DEPARTMENT OF ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT 2

2035MANUFACTURING

SIMULATION: GROUP PRESENTATIONS

up2you

ppt 10 m

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2nd GROUP - CLASSES (Wednesday morning)

Working groups» “Sandra”- “Sweden”

» “Luzia”;» [ “Beatriz”];» “Inês - Rui”;

» “Rita”.

3rd GROUP - CLASSES(Wednesday afternoon)

Working groups» “Adalto”;[» “Ana”];

[» “Henrique”];» Tiago Neves.

1st GROUP - CLASSES (Monday afternoon)

Working groups» “Fábio Cavaco”;» “Luís Miguel”;

» “Gonçalo Marques”;» “Renato Carvalho”;


TRENDS AND MEGATRENDS

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Trends Possible Impacts up2you

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[NAME OF THE TREND]

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A possibility for notation - egNotation of the impacts based on "futures wheels / impact wheels"

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7António Alvarenga

Weak Signals (2) What might imply if it amplifies / Possible Impactsup2you

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Wild Cards (4) Possible Impacts up2you

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SCENARIO ANALYSISExperimentation of a crucial stage of the process:

choosing key uncertainties.

António Alvarenga


Note: These slides are just a tool supporting the lectures. Not all slides will be necessarily used.

[email protected]://pt.linkedin.com/in/antonioalvarenga


5. Scenario analysisW9

• Foresight, Horizon Scanning and Scenarios: origins, principles and key concepts. (T11 x2)

W10• Key concepts in action – “The future of manufacturing”. (P03)• Foresight, Horizon Scanning and Scenarios: methodological toolbox. (T12 x1; x2)

W11• Key concepts in action – “The future of manufacturing” (cont.). (P03)• Foresight, Horizon Scanning and Scenarios: methodological toolbox. (T12 x3)• The Intuitive Logics School of Scenario Building: objectives, applications and key features. (T13 x1)

W12• Experimentation of a crucial stage of the process: choosing key uncertainties. (P04)• The Intuitive Logics School of Scenario Building: objectives, applications and key features. (T13 x2)• Morphological Analysis: introduction and cases. (T14)

W13• Using Morphological Analysis to build Scenarios: hands-on application. (L05)

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2030MANUFACTURING

SIMULATION

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Task:

To identify 3 uncertainties and propose 2 configurations(“possible paths”) to each one

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Looking for Key Uncertainties

Strong Impact

LowUncertainty

Strong ImpactHigh Uncertainty

IMPACT

UNCERTAINTYContext

Elements

KeyUncertainties

Important Trends

X

X X

Criteria

Importance/Impact

Uncertainty

Independence



10

15

20

25

30

35

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Imp

act

DRIVERS OF CHANGE

SafetySustainability

Fidelization

EnvironmentalConcerns

Products and MotivationsTerritorial Management

Health andProximity Services

VisibilityFamilyNegotiation Power Burocracy

Reintegration of the Value Chain

Uncertainty

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STRUCTURAL UNCERTAINTIES…

KEY UNCERTAINTIES:

• Importance/Relevance (strong potential impact) to the FOCUS

• High Level of Uncertainty

• Independence

» They are critical drivers for understanding the future dynamics of the focus. They have a high level of uncertainty. They are the basis for the development of Scenarios .

» The Key Uncertainties define the dynamics that must be monitored and towards which it is crucial to find answers.


CONFIGURATIONS OF THE KEY UNCERTAINTIES

Criteria:

plausible, contrasted, challenging

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PORTUGAL: EVOLUTION OF THE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL

CONTEXT

CHINA: EVOLUTION OF THE PROCESS OF ECONOMIC AND

SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT

INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

POWER RELATIONS IN THE INDUSTRY

RELATIVE

STABILIZATION

OLIGOPOLIES

“SUNNY”

STABILIZATIONCRISIS

“CLOUDY”

GROWING

INSECURITY

EFFECTIVE

NETWORKS

EXAMPLES OF KEY UNCERTAINTIES AND

CONFIGURATIONS


KEY UNCERTAINTY ‘A’ AND CONFIGURATIONS

“………”“………”

KEY UNCERTAINTY “B” AND CONFIGURATIONS

……………………..“………”“………”

KEY UNCERTAINTY “C” AND CONFIGURATIONS

……………………..“………”“………”

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2030MANUFACTURING

SIMULATION

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Evidence / (deep/explicative) causes of the selected configurations

UNCERTAINTY A

UNCERTAINTY B

UNCERTAINTY CCONFIG. C’’

CONFIG. B’’

CONFIG. A’’CONFIG. A’

CONFIG. B’

CONFIG. C’

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Evidence / (deep/explicative) causes of the selected configurations

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2030MANUFACTURING

SIMULATION

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List of potential key uncertainties

Sort Potential Key Uncertainties regarding your evaluation oftheir impact on the focus:

• 0, if no impact (or almost no impact)

• 1, if weak impact

• 2, if medium impact

• 3, if strong impact

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inputLooking for Key Uncertainties

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Rate Potential Key Uncertainties regarding your evaluation oftheir level of uncertainty:

• 0, if there is no uncertainty (or very low level ofuncertainty)

• 1, if the degree of uncertainty is low

• 2, if medium degree of uncertainty

• 3, if there is strong uncertainty attached

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List of potential key uncertainties

inputLooking for Key Uncertainties

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Strong Impact

LowUncertainty

Strong ImpactHigh Uncertainty

IMPACT

UNCERTAINTYContext

Elements

KeyUncertainties

Important Trends

X

X X

Criteria

Importance/Impact

Uncertainty

Independence


Looking for Key Uncertainties - eg

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0,65

0,75

0,85

0,95

1,05

1,15

1,25

1,35

0,65 0,75 0,85 0,95 1,05 1,15 1,25 1,35

Impact

Uncertainty

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1 - Gastos com a Saúde

2 - Níveis de Financiamento do SNS

3 - Penetração Tecnológica no Sector

4 - Evolução do Sistema de Saúde I

5 - Evolução do Sistema de Saúde II

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Imp

acto

Incerteza

À procura de Incertezas Cruciais


1

2

3

4

5

0,65

0,75

0,85

0,95

1,05

1,15

1,25

1,35

0,65 0,75 0,85 0,95 1,05 1,15 1,25 1,35

Impacto

Incerteza

À procura de Incertezas Cruciais

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Looking for Key Uncertaintiesup2you

Procurando Incertezas Cruciais

INCERTEZA

IMPACTO Impact

Uncertainty


1 2

3 4

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1 2

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Megatrends

Megatrends Megatrends

Megatrends

António Alvarenga


GeopoliticalContext and

Energy Supply

1

3

7

Power andInfluenceRelations

TechnologicalInnovation

5

2

4

6

8

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• Name + image/icon• Identification and articulation of key ideas and distinctive elements• Description of alternative, plausible, futures• T and MT that “support” the Scenarios• Actors (existent and potential) and power relations• Compatible and symbolic events/situations• Chronology• Archetypes (exs): good and bad, rise and fall, winners and losers,

crisis and response; discontinuities• + focus specificities• Possible (indicative/illustrative/compatible or with qualitative-

quantitative feedback) quantification


U

Initial assumptions

Focal issue

What we still want to know,

research, monitor

New beliefs

HOW HAS OUR THINKING CHANGED?

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Q&A


SCENARIO ANALYSIS - fenix.tecnico.ulisboa.pt · António Alvarenga 1st SEMESTER, 2015 ... [...

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