SCATTER-SELMA joint workshop, Brussels, 8 June 2004 Testing potential solutions to control urban...

SCATTER-SELMA joint workshop, Brussels, 8 June 2004

Testing potential solutionsto control urban sprawl

The Brussels case city

2

SCATTER-SELMA joint workshop, 8 June 2004

Brussels Metropolitan

area:

- 2.9 millions inhabitants

- 1.2 million jobs

Brussels-Capital Region:

-1 million inhabitants

- 650 000 jobs

- lost 120 000 inhabitants

in 30 years

3


Investment cost: about 900 millions € - 8 new linesShort run impact on mobility: strong modal shift towards PTLong run impact on spatial structure: risk of re-launch of urban sprawl

The RER project

4


The 9 lines of the RER of Brussels

The RER project

5


Effect on the number of households in the Brussels-Capital Region

Brussels case city: Effect of policies on the number of induced households in the urban centre

112113

114

115

301

302

312313

322 413421422

423424

425

513

514

515516517

518

519

521

813812811

512511

412

411331

121

311

321

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Tested scenario

Num

ber

of

induce

d h

ousehold

s

6


Effect on the number of households in the urban areas

Brussels case city: Effect of policies on the number of induced households in urban zones

112113114115 301

302

312

313

322413

421

422423

424

425

513

514

515516

517

518519

521

813

812811

512511

412411

331

121

311

321

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

Tested scenario

Num

ber

of

induce

d h

ousehold

s

7

SCATTER-SELMA joint workshop, 8 June 2004Effect on the CO2 emissions

Brussels case city: Effect of policies on the CO2 emissions

112113

114

115 301302

312313

322

413

421

422423

424

425513

514

515516

517518519

521

321

311

121

331

411

412

511

512

811 812813

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

Tested scenario

CO

2 e

mis

sio

ns

(eq.t

ons/e

v.peak h

)

8


Synthesis of results (1/3)

Most effective policies

(i) with regard to urban concentration and land consumption:

Road pricing Fiscal measures related to land use Regulatory land use measure

Indirect effects of land use policies: Household-targeted policies: indirect effects on employment Employment-targeted policies: indirect effects on population

9


Synthesis of results (2/3)

All policies decreasing the generalised transport cost incite to urban sprawl:

Improvement of PT commercial speed Reduction of PT fare Decrease of access time to rail stations

Decrease of the generalised transport cost limited to the central area makes it more attractive:

See the results of the policy improving the PT commercial speed within the Brussels-Capital Region

10


Synthesis of results – Individual measures (3/3) Most effective policies

(ii) with regard to fuel consumption and air quality: Road pricing Parking pricing + parking capacity restriction Express buses

Cordon pricing: Decrease of employment in the urban centre

Parking policy: Negative effect on employment Hence : spatial competition to be carefully considered when implementing such a

policy

11

SCATTER-SELMA joint workshop, 8 June 2004Impacts ofthe combination 813 in the case of Brussels

Components of the combination 813:

Increase of car cost per km (+ 50 %) congestion pricing : increase of car use cost during the peak hours in

the RER area

Decrease of PT fare for trips to work place (- 20 %) Fiscal measure on residential developments

impact fee on new residential site developments fiscal reduction in urban areas

Fiscal measure on services to business annual impact fee per employee when located in areas poorly served

by public transport

12


Types of scenarios:2015 RER network Decrease of PT fare Fiscal measure on housholdsPriority measures Increase of car use cost Fiscal measure on services to business(new 2015 reference) Combination of measures

(1) The effect of the RER network is calculated in comparison with the 2015 reference scenario

(2) The effect of the priority measures is calculated in comparison with the 2015 RER scenario

(3) The effect of the priority measures is calculated in comparison with the 2015 reference scenario

The effects of the other meaures are calculated in comparison with the priority measures

Effects of the measures on the number of induced households in the urban zones of the study area

7 925

4 917

-2 187

-12 384

4 844

12 575

-3 620

-14 571

8 0766 778

-20 000

-15 000

-10 000

-5 000

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

RE

R n

etw

ork

(1

)

prio

rity

me

asu

res

(2)

resu

lt o

f th

ep

riorit

y m

ea

sure

s(3

) 9.4

bis

10

.2 b

is

13

.2 b

is

14

.2 b

is

Co

mb

ina

tion

1:

10

.2 +

9.4

+1

3.2

.2

Co

mb

ina

tion

2:

10

.2 +

9.4

+ 1

4.2

Co

mb

ina

tion

3:

10

.2 +

9.4

+1

3.2

.2 +

14

.2

Scenario

Ch

ang

e o

f th

e n

um

ber

of

ind

uce

d

ho

use

ho

lds

Effect on the number of households in the urban areas

13







Effects of the measures on the number of induced jobs in the urban zones of the study area

11 518

6 193

3 2934 154

1 021

12 311

179

7 447

6 5505 490

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

RE

R n

etw

ork

(1

)

prio

rity

me

asu

res

(2)

resu

lt o

f th

e p

riorit

ym

ea

sure

s (3

)

9.4

bis

10

.2 b

is

13

.2 b

is

14

.2 b

is

Co

mb

ina

tion

1:

10

.2 +

9.4

+ 1

3.2

.2

Co

mb

ina

tion

2:

10

.2 +

9.4

+ 1

4.2

Co

mb

ina

tion

3:

10

.2 +

9.4

+ 1

3.2

.2+

14

.2

Scenario

Ch

ang

e o

f th

e n

um

ber

of

ind

uce

d j

ob

s

Effect on the number of jobs in the urban areas

14







(*): Vehicle-kilometers made by private car in the study area, including the entering and outgoing traffic, at the morning peak hour (7 a.m.-9 a.m.), for all travel purposes

Effect of the measures on the number of vehicle - kilometers made by private car in the study area (*)

-1 245 923

-1 361 451

55 371

-840 032-774 989

-4 187

-1 365 907

-163 660

-1 615 021

-1 416 744

-1 800 000

-1 600 000

-1 400 000

-1 200 000

-1 000 000

-800 000

-600 000

-400 000

-200 000

0

200 000

RE

R n

etw

ork

(1

)

prio

rity

me

asu

res

(2)

resu

lt o

f th

ep

riorit

y m

ea

sure

s(3

) 9.4

bis

10

.2 b

is

13

.2 b

is

14

.2 b

is

Co

mb

ina

tion

1:

10

.2 +

9.4

+1

3.2

.2

Co

mb

ina

tion

2:

10

.2 +

9.4

+ 1

4.2

Co

mb

ina

tion

3:

10

.2 +

9.4

+1

3.2

.2 +

14

.2

Scénario testé

Var

iati

on

en

véh

icu

les-

km

Effect on the vehicle-km by car

SCATTER-SELMA joint workshop, Brussels, 8 June 2004 Testing potential solutions to control urban...

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