Scaling Digital Intelligence
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Transcript of Scaling Digital Intelligence
Scaling Intelligence
Art + Science @ Scale March 5th, 2014 Digital Government Conference Jason Juma-Ross Lead Partner, Digital Intelligence @ideasoc
PwC
An unhelpful debate
2
PwC
PwC
The optimizer’s curse
Source: Smith & Winkler (2006)
Distribution of each value estimate
Distribution of maximum value estimates
A decision-maker who consistently chooses alternatives based on her estimated values should expect to be disappointed on average, even if the individual value estimates are conditionally unbiased.
PwC 7
Removing the constraints
PwC
Linear combination = constraint imposition
8
Analysis
PowerPoint
Presentation
Debate
Inaction
PwC 9
Three modes of decision-making
PwC
Thinking like a fighter pilot
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Sense Orient Decide Act
• Instrumentation • Sensors • Direct feedback
Faster, cheaper
• Actuators • Automated operations
Intelligent Agent
Wetware
IFTT
Machine
PwC
Visualisation: data | wetware
11
PwC
If this then that: rule based mode
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PwC
Machine leaning mode
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15
PwC
WETWARE IFTT MACHINE MACHINE
In real applications, all three modes get combined Example: social network analysis
16
NoSQL Sentiment Mining SQL
CRM
DMP
Dash-boards
PwC 17
Artificial intelligence isn’t