Savills Big Shed Breakfastpdf.savills.com/documents/SavillsBigShedBreakfast.pdfTake-up – by volume...
Transcript of Savills Big Shed Breakfastpdf.savills.com/documents/SavillsBigShedBreakfast.pdfTake-up – by volume...
savills.com
Savills Big Shed Breakfast Tuesday 25th November 2014
Introductions, Richard Sullivan, Head of Logistics and Industrial
Agenda
Market Update, Kevin Mofid, Head of Logistics Research
Panel Discussion
Audience Q & A
Refreshments & Networking
Panellists
Kevin Ashfield
Senior Development
Director
Chris Nicoll
Head of Industrial &
Logistics
Jason Jay
Senior Asset Manager
Adam Petrillo
Managing Director,
Industrial Services
savills.com
Market Overview Kevin Mofid – Associate Director, Research
Market Dynamics
Take-up – by volume
Source: Savills
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*
Mil
lio
n s
q f
t
2nd Hand New BTS Let prior to PC
* As at end-Nov
Proportion of take-up by grade
Source: Savills
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*
2nd Hand New BTS Let prior to PC
Big Shed take-up by region
Source: Savills
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
East Midlands
West Midlands
North West
South East
Yorkshire & The
Humber
Inner M25
North East
South West
East of England
Mil
lio
n s
q f
t
2011 2012 2013 2014*
Big Shed take-up (size band % share, by deal count)
Source: Savills
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
100-199,999 200-299,999 300-399,999 400-499,999 500,000+
2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD
Big Shed take-up (size band % share, by deal size)
Source: Savills
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
100-199,999 200-299,999 300-399,999 400-499,999 500,000+
2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD
Demand is pushing average size up
150,000
170,000
190,000
210,000
230,000
250,000
270,000
290,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*
Sq
ft
Source: Savills * as at end-August
Big Shed take-up (business sector % share)
Source: Savills
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD
% s
hare
Retail Logistics (inc. 3PL) Manufacturing
However......
Supply
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Q4 07 Q4 08 Q4 09 Q4 10 Q4 11 Q4 12 Q4 13 Q4 14
Mil
lio
n S
q F
t
Source: Savills
Big Shed Availability
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
East Midlands
North West West Midlands
Yorkshire & The
Humber
South East East of England
Inner M25 South west North East
Mil
ion
Sq
Ft
2nd Hand New
Source: Savills
Current availability by region and quality
Big Shed availability (regional % share; England)
Source: Savills
East Midlands 22%
North West 16%
West Midlands 15%
Yorkshire & The Humber
13%
South East 12%
East of England 6%
Inner M25 6%
South west 6%
North East 4%
Grade A availability
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
East Midlands
North East & Yorks.
South East North West West Midlands
South West
Mil
lio
n s
q f
t
Q4 2013 Q4 2014
Grade A Stock
Grade A availability
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
East Midlands
North East & Yorks.
South East North West West Midlands
South West
Mil
lio
n s
q f
t
Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Average Take-up
Logistics Developments
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
South East East Midlands North West West Midlands
Mil
lio
n s
q f
t
Sq ft in development Number of units
UK Total Investment
£0
£10
£20
£30
£40
£50
£60
£70
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*
£ b
illi
on
Retail Office Industrial Leisure Other
Source: Property Data/Savills (excludes confidential deals)
UK Total Investment
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
£0
£10
£20
£30
£40
£50
£60
£70
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014*
£ b
illi
on
Retail Office Industrial Leisure Other Industrial Proportion
Source: Property Data/Savills (excludes confidential deals)
All industrial investment
Source: Property Data/Savills (excludes confidential deals)
£0.0
£1.0
£2.0
£3.0
£4.0
£5.0
£6.0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014*
£ b
illi
on
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
* as at mid-Nov
UK: Distribution warehouses investment
Source: Property Data/Savills (excludes confidential deals)
£0.0
£0.5
£1.0
£1.5
£2.0
£2.5
£3.0
£3.5
£4.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*
£ b
illi
on
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
* as at mid-Nov
UK: Distribution warehouses net investment by type
Source: Property Data/Savills (excludes confidential deals)
-£1.5
-£1.0
-£0.5
£0.0
£0.5
£1.0
£1.5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*
£ b
illi
on
UK Institution Financial/Bank Property Companies Overseas Investors Occupier Private Individuals
* as at mid-Nov
Key Take-aways
Take-up levels are buoyant, 2014 has seen take-up increase by 50%
Almost all regions have seen take-up rise
Retailers are the dominant force
The average deal size is increasing
Supply is falling drastically....
......especially for modern stock
It seems there isn't enough speculative development coming forward to meet
“average” take-up levels
Industrial investment volumes are rising....
.....with logistics investment volumes on course to double in a year
Panel Discussion
Kevin Ashfield
Senior Development
Director
Chris Nicoll
Head of Industrial &
Logistics
Jason Jay
Senior Asset Manager
Adam Petrillo
Managing Director
Supply Dynamics
Source: The Business Desk/IM Properties
Speculative Confidence Spreading
The impact of retail
“Disruption is the
new normal in retail”
“only 17% of retail
Chief Executives
believe their supply
chains are optimal”
Retail Disruption
“This is a once in 50 to 60 year change. The last big change was the supermarket [in the 1950s]. I think what you are seeing now is as fundamental.”
New models from Discounters?
Global Trade Flows
Manufacturing, Near shoring?
Due for release in Autumn 2014
Examines the resurgence of the UK
manufacturing sector
We expect 15 million sq ft of
manufacturing requirements per annum
This will have a ripple effect into the
wider supply chain
How does this impact the Landlord/Tennant
Relationship
Source: BPF/IPD
Lessons from America?
What does this mean for the Investment Community?
£0.0
£0.5
£1.0
£1.5
£2.0
£2.5
£3.0
£3.5
£4.0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014*
£ b
illi
on
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Source: Property Data/Savills (excludes confidential deals)
Where are we in the Cycle?
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Economy Peak
Occupier Market Peak
Pricing Peak
Finance Peak
Investment Demand Peak
Investment Supply Peak
Source: Savills
Rental Growth Forecast
Source: Savills/RealFor
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Ren
tal g
row
th %
yr/
yr
IPD Logistics Rental Growth Logistics Rental Growth Forecast
Audience Q & A
Thank you
Please join us for Networking & Refreshments