Satisfaccion de Cliente y Crisis Financiera (Ingles)
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Transcript of Satisfaccion de Cliente y Crisis Financiera (Ingles)
Madrid, February 25, 2009
Customer Satisfactionand
The Financial Crisis
Claes FornellChairman, CFI Group and
The Donald C. Cook Professor, University of Michigan
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What Caused the Crisis?
Bizarre behavior by
US consumers
• Didn’t save in good times
• Now saving in bad times
US government
• Borrowed in good times (created deficits)
US banks/financial institutions
• Enormous risk taking (until now)
• Zero risk taking (now)
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Why Is the Rest of the World Affected?
Risky assets were packaged and sold to the rest of the worldCollapse of US consumption of imported goods
World-wide recession
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What Is a Recession?
GDP = Consumer spending + Government spending
+ (Exports – Imports) + Investments
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The Cure: Monetary Policy (Friedman)
Interest rates
Print money
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The Cure:
GDP = Consumer spending + Government Spending
Tax cuts New projects
Fiscal Policy (Keynes)
Household Income
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How Customer Satisfaction Is Critical
Macro
Consumer Spending
CreditAvailability
ConsumerConfidence
DiscretionaryIncome
Customer Satisfaction
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How Customer Satisfaction Is Critical
Loyal customers are the last to leave and the first to come back.
Loyal and satisfied customers are a critical asset, but you will not find this on the balance sheet.
Micro
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Consider the Following
• Global forces
• What to do – What not to do
• Economic returns/Low risk
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Global Forces and Power Shifting
Movement of:1. Information
2. Capital
3. Work (not labor)
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Who Benefits Most?
Buyers or sellers?
Who is getting more choice?
Who is becoming more replaceable?
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Off-balance sheet assets
Power attracts capital
Customer Asset Management
How to do Business When Buyers Are Getting More Powerful?
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ACSI: American Customer Satisfaction Index1994 – 2008
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Investment Returns
Where’s the leverage?
What’s the return on customer assets?
Do customers know something
investors don’t?
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Observations
Information Technology Globalization
More Buyer ChoiceMore Buyer Information
Shift in Balance of PowerBetween Buyers and Sellers
Assets on Balance SheetLess Predictive
Intangible Market-Based Assets
(Customer Satisfaction) More Predictive
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The Theory
+
+
Capitalizing on the Shift in Balance of Power Between Buyers and Sellers in
Product/Service Markets
Classical Economic Utility (Satisfaction)Theory
Technology for Extracting Value-Relevant Information
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How Are Markets Supposed to Work?
Seller
Product Markets
Equity Markets
Repeat Buying
More Capital
The Successful Seller
Buyer defection in product markets
Capital withdrawal from equity markets
The Unsuccessful Seller
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Can You Beat the Market?
Only if you know something that others don’t
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Customers (in the aggregate) Have Certain Value-Relevant Information
Before Investors Do
The Premise
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“The American Customer Satisfaction Index, the definitive benchmark of how buyers feel about what business is selling them.”
- New York Times, August 8, 2004
Investment Universe: Approx. 200 Large Cap. Consumer Companies Covered by ACSI
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Annual Returns: ACSI stock portfolio vs. S&P 500April 2000 (Inception) - 2008
-13%
26%
9%
3%
14%
4%
-9%
11%
-6%
34%
14%
20%
-19%
-12%
-23%
-38%
36%
16%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Yea
rly
Pe
rfo
rman
ce
S&P 500
ACSI Stock Portfolio
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
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Effects of Customer Satisfaction: Repeat Buying/LoyaltyPricing PowerHigh Reservation PricesLow Cash Flow Volatility
Investment Implications
Translate Into: Above-Market Returns Low Down-Side Risk Beta Surfing (B < 1 in down markets; B > 1 in
up markets)
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7.9%
17.6%
14.3%
3.0%
10.7%
8.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
CSat Market Neutral
CSat Market Neutral: Annual ReturnsAfter Fees
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Implications for Corporate ManagementWhat Losers Do
Buy customer loyalty with price discountsCut costs at the expense of weakening customer relationshipsGet too close to the customerRely on mass production and mass marketingTry to exceed customer expectations
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Implications for Corporate ManagementWhat Winners Do
Manage customer relationships as true economic assetsCut costs where they have the least impact on customer assetsUnderstand marginal analysisMaximize customer complaintsEarn the loyalty of their customers by satisfying them
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Marginal AnalysisWhat to Do
Perf
orm
an
ce a
s ju
dg
ed
by o
ur
cust
om
ers
Personal service
Merchandise assortment
Facilities Waiting time
Impact on customer satisfaction
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Marginal Analysis What to Improve in Good Times
Perf
orm
an
ce a
s ju
dg
ed
by o
ur
cust
om
ers
Personal service
Merchandise assortment
Facilities Waiting time
Impact on customer satisfaction
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Marginal Analysis What to Cut in Bad Times
Perf
orm
an
ce a
s ju
dg
ed
by o
ur
cust
om
ers
Personal service
Merchandise assortment
Facilities Waiting time
Impact on customer satisfaction
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The Future:
Some element of Non-rival goods + customer asset management
Customers + InvestorsA New Alliance:
Rising Cost of Time: Buyers will offload work on sellers
Key to Success in:
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Typical Rate of Return
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Rate of Return: Customer Retention
Customer Retention
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Rate of Return: Non-Rival Goods
Degree of Non-Rival Goods