Satcom for ATM - ESA's ARTES Programmes · ATSC Fee (Satcom) Airlines ATS Route Charges Payment...

Satcom for ATM

Iris workshop ESTEC, 18th September 2007

Iris Workshop 18 Sept. 2007 2

Objectives

The objective of this study is to specifically investigate whether or not a satellite system dedicated to safety

communications can be made economically viable for a vast majority of aircraft categories.


■Budget: 715 k€ESA: 450 k€ (63%)CNES: 265 k€ (37%)

■Partners:Core team: 8Consultancy: 9

■Duration: 9 months

■CCN (3 months)

Organisation


Study logic

Service requirements(WP 1000)

System architecture (WP 2000)

Service provision(WP 3000)

Deployment scenarios (WP 4000)

Cost analysis(WP 5000)

Business case(WP 6000)

STEP

1ST

EP 2

STEP

3ST

EP 4

WS 1

WS 2


Mission requirements

ATC ANSP

AOC CSP

SATM

Mission requirements

ATC services: Provided by infrastructure composed by a terrestrial and a satellite systemAOC services: Open competitionList of services to take into account:

Data link everywhere & Voice services in remote areasTwo types of services: “Deterministic services” & “Best effort services”

Out of scope for SATM system: A/A comm’s, ADS-B, ground services (airport)QoS requirements:

COCR v1.0


Capacity requirements

Satellite design depends on capacity distribution

■ New simulation tool:

SAAM

Flight capacity simulator

ECAC capacity simulator

Benefits:Easy to adapt to new scenarios (services, priorities, cells, etc)Scalable

Current work: Aeronautical Traffic loader


Flight capacity simulator

ResultsBursty trafficBig time of inactivity (64%)Low amount of dataGraphical Weather service to be reviewed

ParametersATC & AOC servicesFlight time: 70 minutesTMA dep: 7 minutes (2 sect)TMA arr.: 10 minutes (3 sect)

Return link Forward linkAverage rate (bps) 164,53 195,48Global information exchanged (kbits)

740,41 879,68

Peak rate (kbps) 4,12 9,44

Return link Forward linkAverage rate (bps) 166,52 570,18Global information exchanged (kbits)

749,34 2565,83

Peak rate (kbps) 4,32 35,46

With Graph. Weather Without Graph. Weather


Global capacity simulator


1

23

567-8

9-10

11-12

4

13-14

15-16

Number of aircraft

Résolution 0.5º = 55.6 km


■ Unicast total capacity: Forward: 520 kbps Return: 435 kbps

■ Broadcast: 45 kbps■ Total capacity per service type:

Best effort: • F: 400 kbps• R: 300 kbps

Deterministic:• F: 160 kbps• R: 190 kbps



Aeronautical Traffic loader

■Software traffic loader■Based on COCR or SATM req’s

ATC AOC

■Platform independent UDP packets Priority is managed Log file available

■Measurements: Time delay

GES AES

GES Traffic loader

AES Traffic loader

Aeronautical comm’s

simulator


System architecture design

System Design

sate

llite

GES

AES

Dedicated, piggy-back or rentedGeo orbit, ECAC or global coverageEIRP: 52 dBW ~ 41 dBW

Centralised and distributed architecture

Low gain antenna: 0dBiLow transmit power: EIRP 8,8 ~13,5 dB Other drivers: cable loss, antennalocation, diplexer, redundancy

Services requirements can be met (QoS policy)Time delay IntegrityAvailability to be achieved with inter-system redundancy


Functional architecture

Terrestrial network


Space segment : payload

■ Antenna module Single beam, 3 and 5 beams studies Satellite antennas: 2,4 meters (regional beam

& global beam) G/T from L-band antenna is the main constraint

■ Bent pipe repeater AMS(R)S L band (mobile link) & Ku band (fix link) L-band: Proven technology (XM Radio, MTSAT) Ku-band: Proven technology

■ Payload power/mass: From 1525 W / 119 kg up to 2386 W / 240 kg


Coverages

Global beam coverage Regional beam coverage


Air interface

■ Option CDMA (dedicated) GES: Centralized or distributed Synchronous CDMA Connectionless Data rate: 5.5 kbps Turbocoding ½

Forward link Return link

■ Option DVB-S2 GES: Centralized Single TDM Symbol rate: 1 Mbaud Adaptative modcod Less power required High spectrum efficiency

■ Option CDMA (dedicated) GES: Centralized or distributed Synchronous CDMA Data rate: 5.5 kbps Aloha, mini-slot & DAMA


SATM analysisLink budgets

300

150812

1288

Pow. Sat (W)

78

401000

1000

Bit rate (kbps)

41.4

38.452.8

52.8

Sat. EIRP (dBW)

Scenario 3: Global

Scenario 3: GlobalScenario 2: 2.4 m

Scenario 1: 1.4 m

2

3.2

5.4

5.4

Bit rate (kbps)

-8.6

-8.6

-3.6

-1.6

G/T Sat (dB/K)

11.5

13.5

10.8

8.8

AES EIRP (dBW)

Scenario 3: Global

Scenario 3: Global

Scenario 2: 2.4 m

Scenario 1: 1.4 m


Avionics

■ Trade-off analysis (G/T & EIRP)■ Architectural drivers:

Antenna issues (0 dBi antenna)• Size & drag: Small, low drag blade configuration • Location:

– Shadowing– Multipath– Space diversity (depending on satellite configuration)

RF Cable loss Thermal design : passive cooling


Avionics

■ Trade-off analysis to lower the cost■ Cost drivers: Reliability / Availability analysis + High Power

Amplifier ■ Options considered: Voice capability, dual receiver, CDMA

receiver■ Technical features:

Dual 0 dBi antenna (low gain antenna, easy to install in every aircraft)

EIRP (From 13.5 dBW global beam to 8.8dBW European beam)


Service provision

Market architectureANSP have VHF networkCSP offers bundled

services to usersIndependents providers in

the value chainFlexible pricing

Current situation

Lessons learnt:Modest competition is

necessaryPreserve intellectual

propertyCapacity planning is

important

Mandatory carriage

ATSC services

ThreatsCompetitor systemsAirline acceptability:

Mandate benefits Cost reductions

Open competition

AOC services

ThreatsCompetitor systemsAirline acceptability:

Cost reductions

Market architectureNeed for an oversight bodyValue chain

Future situation

UnbundledSatelliteoperator

GES operator

End-user

BundledSatelliteoperator

GES operator

CSP

End-user


Deployment scenarios

The FCI will include 2 segments :• A new Ground radio system• A new Satellite radio system

Carriage of FCI avionics will be mandatory in 2020. A transition period of 7 years is considered

Full FCI Operation

Initial FCI Operation

Avionics Transition

Satellite Radio

Ground Radio

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013 - Carriage Mandate

2020 - Paradigm Shift

2008 - SESAR Master Plan for Future Communicatino Infrastructure (FCI)

NEW COMMUNICATION STANDARDS DEVELOPMENT

TRANSITIONPHASETO FCI


Deployment scenarios

D e d ic a t e d S a t .A T M P a y lo a d

D e d ic a t e d S a t .

D e v e lo p m e n tP h a s e

T r a n s i t io nP h a s e

F u l l O p e r a t io n a lP h a s e

A T M P a y lo a dD e d ic a t e d S a t .

A T M P a y lo a d

L e a s e d C a p a .

D e d ic a t e d S a t .D e d ic a t e d S a t .


A T M P a y lo a d

A T M P a y lo a d

123

4 A T M P a y lo a d

L e a s e d C a p a .5


D e d ic a t e d S a t .

Deployment scenarios provide planning inputs for Business Assessment


Ex : ATM Satcom Deployment Scenario 5

Space Segment Assumptions for Scenario 5• Lease Capacity for Development Programme

• First Space Segment Element– 1 ATM Dedicated Satellite

– Support Transition & Full Operational Service

– Lifetime 15 years

– Launch target : 2014

• Second Space Segment Element– 1 ATM Dedicated Satellite

– Lifetime 15 years

– Support Operational Service

– Launch target : 2017

• Refurbishment of ATM Dedicated Satellite will be required around 2030


Ex : ATM Satcom Deployment Scenario 5

Ope. Space Sgt (2)

Ope. Space Sgt (1)

Ope. Ground Deployment

Avionics Deployment

Aircraft Certification

Avionics Certification

System Standardisation

System Validation

Test User Segm ent

Tes t Ground Segm ent

Dedicated Satellite

Dedicated Satellite

Lease Capacity

Full Satcom Service

Initial Satcom Service

Development Program m e

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

2013 - Carriage Mandate

2018 - Full Satcom Capability

2011 - System Test Bed

2020 FCI Target

Development & Launch of Dedicated Satellite

Development & Launch of Dedicated Satellite

Reduction of risks space sgt Limited verification


Business Scenarios - Building Blocks

Services

System Architecture and Deployment

Market Environment

Funding Scenario

Business Scenario

Linked

Rev

enue

Flo

wC

ost P

rofil

e

Private Venture

(PV)

Public Procurement

(PP)

Public Private Partnership(PPP/PFI)

Reduced Nominal

ECAC ATS ECAC AOC Non ECAC

Users Competition Pricing

OR

OR OR

+ +

+ +

ExtendedOR


High Level Schedule

Space Segment 1 (Initial)

Space Segment 2 (Full Deployment)Space Segment 1R (Replenishment)

EDC FCC EoC

Init Ops (4y) Full Ops (16y)

S/S Next generation

Development / Validation

CAPEX 1 CAPEX 2 CAPEX R

Pioneer AOC Service Full AOC Service

2008 2013 2018 2027 20332020

SESAR Master Plan

SATM Phases

SATM CAPEX

SATM Space Segment Life

SATM Equipment

SATM Services

Equipment Ramp UpStandard Definition

ICAO Standard ReadyA/C Equipment KO

A/C Equipment Finished

Development Phase

Deployment Phase FCI Full Operations

ATSC operator certification Full ATSC service

Equipment Maintenance

T0 T0+5y T0+7y T0+14y T0+20y


System Scenarios - Cost Profiles

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Scenario 3 - 1 Sat + 1 PayloadScenario 5 - Baseline - 2 satsScenario 6 - 2 sats (global coverage)

Yea

rly

Co

st (

M€)


Revenue ModelingService Value Chain and Charging Scheme

RCO

ANSP

SATM Operator

ATSC Fees (% of RC)

ATSC Fee(Terrestrial Radio)

ATSC Fee (Satcom)

Airlines ATS

Route Charges Payment (RC)

Subscription Fee + Service usage fees

AOC SatCom service lease

Satellit

e ATS

C &

AOC servi

ce

ATSC & A

OC

Service Charge

Satellite AOC

capacity

Commercial Operators

ATSC Service

Access (TR + SAT)

CSPRetention (OPEX, CAPEX amortization

(TR), margins)

RegulatedCompetitive


Revenues – Nominal Scenario

Yearly Revenue Flow

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

Time

Year

ly R

even

ues

(M€)

ATSC

AOC

Extended coverageRevenues (20 years total)

AOC Revenues 445 M€ATSC Revenues 647 M€Nominal Revenues 1 092 M€

Non ECAC services 93 M€Extended Revenues 1 185 M€


Business case conclusion

■ For the funding scenarios: The PFI offers the best compromise

• Most financially attractive to both public authorities and private investors• More robust to cost and revenues uncertainties• Best guarantees in terms of viability and permanency over years

The Private Venture scenario considered does not look financially viable

A Public Procurement could be considered if the business case does not attract private investors

■ Main drivers:Operator exposure to various risksUser equipment ramp-upSystem size vs. serviceCompetition against other solutions


PPP / PFI Scenario


PPP / PFI - Funding Distribution

Public Sector

Concessionnaire

100% CAPEX1

100% CAPEX280% Debt20% Equity

OPEX

Debt Repayment

Interests and taxes

% REPCAPEXREP Debt interests

REP Debtagainst assets and a running

business

Initial Deployment Full Deployment Full Operations Replacement of Assets

PPP Investment - Funding Distribution

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Timeline (Years)

Fu

nd

ing

(M

€)

-80

20

120

220

320

420

520Public FundsEarly RevenuesSATM SPC DebtSATM SH EquityCum. Investment


PPP / PFI – Cash Flow Balance

ToP

AOC 3P

Senior Debtrepayment

EquityReturn

% Route Charges Operations

Costs

SATM Public Authority

SATM Private Operator

SATM Revenues

3P RevSharing of Commercial Revenues

50%

50%

The ToP guarantees the senior debt repayment and operating costs

The AOC commercial revenues and eventual extra revenues will generate the concessionnaire return

The revenue sharing mechanism reduces the public sector contribution and consequently the savings could be potentially flown down to the end users

Interest & Tax


PPP - SATM SPC Cash Flows

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032

Timeline (Years)

Cas

h Fl

ow (M

€)PPP / PFI – Financial Results

SATM Concessionnaire IRR = 21% over 20 yBreakeven Point reached at t0+8y (2022)Public Sector NPV = -110 M€

■ The expected IRR is considered as attractive for private investors

■ The concessionaire will finance the replenishment with a fair deal by

Equity Cash FlowOperational phase

Equity Cash FlowFull system

Cumulate Equity Cash Flow


PPP / PFI - Sensitivities

The concessionaire is robust to AOC market risk, nevertheless AOC revenues could also be considered as an additional upside for investors (public or private)

Sensitivity to AOC price PPP Scenario

AOC price (M€) 0 2 4 6 8 10AOC Revenues (M€) 0 74 148 222 297 371

SATM Operator IRR 10,43% 14,15% 17,71% 21,03% 24,25% 27,36%Public Sector NPV 2008 (M€) -202 -171 -141 -110 -79 -49

Sensitivity to Public Sector Contribution PPP Scenario

Contribution to Initial CAPEX 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 80% 80% 80% 80%AOC revenue sharing (private part) 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 90% 80% 70% 60%AOC Revenues (private part) (M€) 222 222 222 222 222 222 400 356 311 267

SATM Operator IRR 21,03% 15,59% 12,18% 9,65% 7,62% 5,70% 17,12% 15,97% 14,78% 13,51%Public Sector NPV 2008 (M€) -110 -90 -70 -49 -29 -9 -143 -125 -106 -88

The PPP relies a lot on the public sector initial CAPEX contribution, however, the public contribution to the initial CAPEX can be reduced


PPP / PFI - Conclusions

■The expected IRR is considered as attractive for private investors

■The concessionnaire seems robust to market risk■The funding of the initial CAPEX by the development agency

contributes a lot to the expected profitability but could be lowered

■The replenishment of assets seems feasible without endangering the concessionnaire viability


General conclusion

■Several scenarios for a satellite-based system for aeronautical communications have been analysed.Technically, a satellite system could meet the requirementsThe business case shows that it is economically viable.

■Many points are still open:The mandatory carriage confirmationThe final mission requirements (ATC and AOC)A deep analysis on the communication standard

■Some of these points will be treated in the next months

Satcom for ATM - ESA's ARTES Programmes · ATSC Fee (Satcom) Airlines ATS Route Charges Payment...

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Transcript of Satcom for ATM - ESA's ARTES Programmes · ATSC Fee (Satcom) Airlines ATS Route Charges Payment...