Wed. 25 May. 2011

SYRIA COMMENT Syrian Opposition to Meet in Turkey – May 31 to June 2 in

an attempt to elect a transitional council …………...……….1 IMPRESSION TK

Wesley Clark sees possible intervention in Syria ………...…1FOREIGN POLICY

Britain and France to press for U.N. Security Council condemnation of Syria, risking a Russian veto……………...2

Why there is little we can do about Syria …………………....5AFP

Syrian capital's residents on edge ……………………………7VOLTAIRE NETWORK

According to Obama, Israel is the reference ………………10MAIL & GUARDIAN

Human Rights Watch tries to sway SA's stance on Syria ….11HUFFINGTON POST

Debate Over Religious Freedom in Syria Causes Anger in Los Angeles Diaspora……………………………………...13

LATIMES Nuclear report on Syria may augur punitive action ………..18

NATINAL POST The worse life gets for Mubarak, harder Assad will fight ....21

BBC US policy on Syria 'depends on success in Libya' …………22

INTELLIGENCER Rotary Member Speaks About Events in Syria …………….26

INDEPENDENT Mission creep and perilous tactics in Libya ………………..28

JERUSALEM POST Israeli mortar shell lands near Syria border; none hurt ….…29

1

HOME PAGESyrian Opposition to Meet in Turkey – May 31 to June 2 Syria Comment,Wednesday, May 25th, 2011

Opposition groups and activists are planning to meet in in Antalya, Turkey from May 31 to June 2 in an attempt to elect a transitional council, connect with protesters inside the country, and present the international community with a clear alternative to Assad.

In April, the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood gathered in Istanbul, where a press conference was held by Riad al-Shaqfa, a mentor of the Muslim Brotherhood. It was carried live on Al Jazeera. The meeting was organized under the auspices of the Independent Industrialists’ and Businessmen’s Association, or MUS?AD, but the financer and the real organizer was Gazi M?s?rl?, one of the leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood and a Syrian who has been living in Turkey with Turkish citizenship, the Syrian ambassador to Ankara, Nidal Kabalan, told the Hürriyet Daily News.

“The conference will be open to all supporters of the opposition, independent personalities and representatives of all faiths,” Ammar Qurabi, president of the Egypt-based National Organisation of Human Rights, told AFP. He referred to the Damascus Declaration, which was formed in 2005 and demanded an end to the domination of the ruling Baath party, free elections and the release of political prisoners.

HOME PAGE

The exgeneral of NATO Wesley Clark sees possible intervention in SyriaImpression TK Wired News,21 May 2011,

The American exgeneral of NATO Wesley Clark said today in Vienna that sees possible international military intervention in Syria.

1

2

In an interview with the Austrian news agency APA, the exmilitar said that “no one in United States want to intervene but if Syria is killed by its citizens, will be acting as in the case of Libya”, where NATO is acting against forces loyal to Colonel Muammar al-Gaddafi.

Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, “must be clear that you can not escape killing people just because Syria has a strong army”, said the excomandante of the NATO forces during the Kosovo war in 1999.

Al-Assad, it acts against the United Nations Charter, against the Declaration of human rights [...]

HOME PAGE

Britain and France to press for U.N. Security Council condemnation of Syria, risking a Russian vetoColum Lynch Foreign Policy Magazine,Tuesday, May 24, 2011,

France and Britain will press for the passage of a U.N. Security Council vote on a mild, but legally-binding, resolution condemning Syria for its bloody repression of anti-government protesters, and demanding Damascus show restraint and provide access to U.N. humanitarian aid workers, according to U.N. diplomats.

The decision sets the council's Western powers on possible collision course with China and especially Russia. Moscow has signaled it may be prepared to veto a Security Council resolution on Syria, diplomats say. The standoff is coming to a head as Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's crackdown on demonstrators entered its ninth week with little sign of an end to the violence. The Syrian uprising represents the greatest threat to the Assad

2

3

dynasty's control over the country since it came to power in a 1963 military coup.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy and British Prime Minister David Cameron will make one last effort at a G-8 Summit in Deauville, France, Thursday and Friday, to persuade Russian President Dmitry Medvedev not to veto the resolution, according to council diplomats. Diplomats are confident that China will not veto the resolution if Russia doesn't.

After weeks of behind the scenes lobbying, Britain and France say they are confident that they have secured the minimum nine votes required for passage of the resolution in the 15-nation council. They are hoping to increase that number. But they said they intend to press for a vote later this week even if Russia threatens to block the vote.

On Twitter, Britain's Foreign Minister William Hague wrote today that the "rising death toll in Syria is worrying and unacceptable." He said Britain "is calling for more international pressure on Syrian authorities, including at [the] UN."

France's Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said recently that the "threat of a Russian veto" looms over the council deliberations on Syria but that prospects for a majority of supporters for council action is improving.

The United States had been initially reluctant to support the European initiative on the grounds that a blocked resolution would strengthen the Syrian governments hand by showing the council is politically divided.

But American diplomats have assured their European counterparts that they will support the push for a resolution. Bosnia, Colombia, Gabon, Germany, Nigeria and Portugal have also assured the Europeans they will vote in favor of the resolution.

3

4

The Security Council's western powers have already encountered stiff resistance from China, Russia and Lebanon to criticizing Syria in the Security Council. Last month, the three countries helped block a French and British initiative to adopt a non-binding council statement condemning Syria's conduct.

Russia is concerned that once the council weighs in on the Syrian crisis it will be only a matter of time before the council's western powers begin to demand tougher action, including sanctions and possibly even the use of force. Moscow has already expressed concern that the West exceeded its mandate to protect civilians in Libya by taking sides in the country's civil war. The United States and its coalition allies maintain that they are faithfully implementing their mandate to protection civilians. And none of the Western powers have threatened the use of force against Damascus.

Brazil, India and South Africa have also voiced concern about a new resolution, though New Dehli has indicated to some colleagues that it would be prepared to support a modest resolution that criticizes Syria's conduct. Human Rights Watch, meanwhile, appealed to South Africa to rally behind the resolution.

"South Africa has said behind closed doors in the Security Council that they would not support Security Council action on Syria because they feel NATO abused the mandate the council gave it on libya," said Philippe Bolopion, Human Rights Watch's U.N. representative, who is visiting South Africa. "Wwhat we are teling them is do not punish Syrian civialins for what NATO is doing in Libya."

He also challenged the U.S. rationale for not pressing more aggressively for action on Syria. "The argument that a Russian veto would somehow expose the divisions of the Security Council cuts both ways," he said. "You could also argue that the complete silence is emboldening the Syrian regime."

4

5

As the Europeans sought to build greater support for the resolution the International Atomic Energy Agency issued a statement today saying that it was "very likely" that a Syrian facility bombed by Israeli war planes in 2007 was "very likely" a nuclear reactor.

U.N. diplomats said the Europeans were unlikely to immediately raise concerns about the development in the Security Council, saying they fear it might complicate ongoing efforts to secure adoption of its resolution condemning Syria for its bloody crackdown.

HOME PAGE

The dark places of the Mideast, or why there is little we can do about SyriaThomas E. Ricks Foreign Policy Magazine,Tuesday, May 24, 2011

The other day John McCreary wrote of Syria that, "the number of cities and the size of the crowds are diminishing. The crackdown still seems to be winning. There is no revolution in Syria." CNAS's Greg McGowan agrees, and here explains why.

By Gregory McGowanBest Defense guest correspondent

There could not have been a more appropriate time for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) to host its event "Unrest in Syria: How Will the U.S. Respond?" than the morning of President Obama's address on the Middle East. Here are the takeaways:

--Right off the bat, John Hannah, a Senior Fellow at FDD and former national security advisor to Vice President Dick Cheney, set the strategic backdrop: "Syria is the lynchpin in the U.S.-Iran competition that has come to frame our view of the Middle East."

5

6

Hannah's Iran-centric notion went unchallenged, making me wish I had brought with me a box full of Marc Lynch's new Iran report.

--Surprisingly, the prevailing sentiment was that the last days of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad are at hand. As FDD Research Fellow Tony Badran said: "The era of Assad is finished; it's clear." The suggestion was that, with all moral legitimacy destroyed away by his murderous acts against his own people, the dictator has few partners in Syria and virtually none, save Iran, abroad. The Syrian military and security forces, as Badran highlighted, are occupying their own country. Al-Assad has placed snipers on rooftops throughout Syria, ordered his forces to meet protests with live ammunition, besieged cities with tanks and shelling and co-opted Alawite 'gangs' to do his bidding, to name just a few of his tactics. Much like Moammar Gadhafi's regime, al-Assad's has gone door to door, and much of the opposition has disappeared. The panel seemed to unanimously agree that such atrocities have exacted enough of a toll on al-Assad's credibility that he can no longer maintain control of his country.

--A notable exeception to this view came from Jonathan Spyer, a Senior Research Fellow at the Global Research in International Affairs Center (GLORIA). He offered what I saw as a much more realistic assessment of the situation, describing three possible scenarios that could wrench al-Assad from power. First, a rupture in the Syrian security forces could somehow produce enough defectors to stage a coup. With little evidence of defectors thus far-due in part to the precedent set by al-Assad, who ordered those soldiers refusing to fire on protestors to be killed-there is almost no hope for this prospect. Another scenario could be the formation of a legitimate and coherent opposition with enough weight to challenge the ruling regime. But the brutal force and systematic arrest of anyone considered an enemy of the regime has landed most of the actors capable of forming such a movement, and their families, in shady prisons across the country. Thus far, there is little evidence of an organized opposition-a dynamic unlikely to change.

6

7

So I think what we're left with in Syria is, as John Hannah put it, "a giant step into the dark." The United States can do little more than stand back and watch. Unlike the positive and hopeful human progress we've witnessed in Egypt and Tunisia, where the actors and institutions were in place for Washington to partner with, there is almost nothing the West can grab on to in Syria. It is a dark place, led by a nefarious man capable of exacting enough fear amongst his own people that we will, in all likelihood, have to come to terms with a tragic status quo.

HOME PAGE

Syrian capital's residents on edge by Jocelyne Zablit, AFP,05/24/2011,

DAMASCUS, Syria - Damascus remains relatively untouched by the pro-democracy protests roiling Syria, but even supporters of the regime in the capital are becoming edgy about the mounting death toll and wondering where the country is headed.

While on the surface all appears normal in the city, with shops open, traffic jams and crowded sidewalks, it is clear that the unrest is on everyone's mind and that with each new demonstration, casualty and sanction the tension rises a notch.

Many hunker down in their homes at night instead of socializing, while some evening events are being cancelled or moved up so that residents can rush home early.

"Two weeks ago we still believed the government's assertion that everything was under control and that the crisis was over," said one local resident, traditionally a supporter of President Bashar al-Assad.

"But the future suddenly looks dark and I wonder down what path the regime is taking us," added the woman, who like others mentioned in this article refused to be named.

7

8

Many people in the metropolis of some four million -- where the Alawite-controlled authoritarian regime has a strong base of support among minority Christians and members of the Sunni bourgeoisie -- seem baffled by the turn of events.

"It is beginning to sink in that this is not going to be over soon and that the country is undergoing major change," said one businessman. "Nothing will be the same as before anymore."

Assad still enjoys strong support in the capital but there are growing fears that the situation is spiralling out of control and that the unrest could eventually hit Damascus and Aleppo, the two major power centers largely spared the violence so far.

According to rights groups, more than 900 people have been killed and thousands more detained by security forces since the protests broke out mid-March with a small demonstration in Damascus that was quickly dispersed.

"I think the day those kids in Daraa were arrested and tortured was really a turning point for all the pent-up anger over widespread corruption among people in the south," said one Damascus resident, referring to the arrest of teenagers caught scrawling anti-government graffiti in the southern town of Daraa as the protests began spreading.

"The pot just blew up."

Reflecting a widespread view, one hotel owner said that with businesses beginning to feel the pinch and a promising tourist season now shattered, a stark reality is settling in.

"People are realizing that this might last many more months and are looking to the government for answers but they're not getting any," he said. "We're offering cut-down prices, we're laying off employees and some of us have been forced to shut down to minimize our losses.

8

9

"But then what?"

Hesitant to act at first, Washington and the European Union have slapped Assad and top aides with punitive sanctions amid a chorus of mounting international condemnation.

The regime has responded to the violence by offering some concessions while at the same time launching a fierce crackdown to crush the unrest.

It has also remained defiant in the face of criticism, accusing the United States and European Union of meddling in its internal affairs and incitement.

But some here believe that Assad has all but lost his chance at redressing the situation and fear a long drawn-out crisis.

"It's like an oil stain that keeps getting larger," said one merchant. "I think we are going to see many more dead and the regime could collapse."

Another businessman said that playing against the government was the protesters' use of social media and the Internet to spread their message and reach the outside world.

"When Assad's father Hafez crushed the revolt in Hama in 1982, killing thousands, the massacre went largely unnoticed outside Syria," he said. "But this time they won't be able to hush things up."

The fear factor among the population is also diminishing.

"The majority of revolutions in the world went forth after the wall of fear came crumbling down," said one woman. "And this is what has happened in Syria.

"There is no turning back now."

9

10

Still, there are those who insist that Assad is genuinely committed to reforms but needs to be given a chance to implement them. Many are also convinced that foreign agitators, notably from Saudi Arabia and neighboring Lebanon, are feeding the unrest.

"Everyone agrees there is corruption but you can't get rid of it overnight," said one man. "If you uproot this rotten tree too quickly you will take down with it half the country."

HOME PAGE

According to Obama, Israel is the reference Editorial,Voltaire Network,24 May 2011,

International affairsEditorial: Israel is the reference The speech that was delivered by American President Barack Obama about the situation in the Arab region was not a speech about the American withdrawal, as it was promoted by some Arab writers who wanted to give the impression that the priority of the United States was the so-called democratic transformation and that consequently, nothing prompted concerns in Washington in light of the Arab revolutions. Obama was very clear in stressing the United States’ insistence on its hegemony over the region when he spoke about the economic interests, which specifically meant American control over the oil wells and pipelines that constituted for a long time the core of the American strategy. Obama was also clear about reaffirming the American vision which perceives Israel as being the reference at the level of the American policy. Therefore, he focused in one part of his speech on two principles: The consecration of Israel as a Jewish state – i.e. a state of racial cleansing - and the consecration of the idea of the Palestinian entity that is under joint Israeli-American tutelage, that is without sovereignty, with the

10

11

elimination of the right of return and with the alleged exchange of lands. Obama who is eagerly seeking a second presidential term wants to use all possible means to ensure the protection of Israel before engaging in his electoral campaign next fall. Therefore, he is placing all his weight against President Bashar al-Assad because without Syria’s weakening and depletion, it would be difficult to impose a new equation at the level of the Palestinian cause and the Arab-Israeli conflict, or to arrange an exit from Iraq based on the conditions of the United States following its failed adventures in the country.

HOME PAGE

Human Rights Watch tries to sway SA's stance on Syria Mail & Guardian (South African news publishers)May 24 2011,

JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA Two leading human rights groups on Monday urged the UN Security Council to pass a resolution against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to help bring an end to nine weeks of violence against civilians.

"The time has come to sanction Bashar al-Assad and those in his entourage who are responsible for the human rights violations against civilians," Philippe Bolopion, the United Nations director of Human Rights Watch, told Agence France-Presse.

Bolopion was speaking in Johannesburg, shortly after he arrived to lobby non-permanent Security Council member South Africa to support an anti-Assad resolution.

He said whispers in diplomatic circles indicated Pretoria was reluctant to support a vote condemning the Syrian leader.

"People are saying behind the scenes that South Africa is opposed to any resolution because it has the impression its hand was forced on the Libyan question," he said.

11

12

In March, South Africa voted for the resolution imposing a no-fly zone over Libya.

But President Jacob Zuma later voiced unease over the way the resolution was being implemented, saying it should be carried out "in letter and spirit" and not used to oust Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi.

'South Africa should not punish Syrian civilians'Bolopion urged Pretoria not to mix the two issues.

"South Africa should not punish Syrian civilians for what Nato is doing in Libya," he said.

Amnesty International on Monday also urged the United Nations and Arab League to act in light of the latest sanctions slapped on Assad by the European Union and the United States.

"We welcome the measures that the EU and the US government have now taken against President Assad and those around him, but the danger is that this will prove to be too little too late," it said.

"The UN Security Council must now take more determined action on Syria and follow the precedent it set when Gaddafi's government began attacking its own people in Libya," it added.

"Syria’s leaders must be told, and be told firmly, that they will not escape accountability and justice for the crimes that are now being committed under their authority in Syria."Bolopion said the Security Council should "at a minimum" demand an end to the violence in Syria, call for humanitarian agencies to be given access to conflict zones and insist on Syrian authorities' cooperation with a UN Human Rights Council investigation.

At least 900 people have been killed and thousands more arrested since the pro-democracy protests erupted, according to rights

12

13

groups. Many of those arrested and later released said they had been tortured.

The European Union on Monday imposed a visa ban and asset freeze on Assad, calling on him to end the "unacceptable violence" that has racked the country since mid-March.

The Security Council has yet to adopt any resolution on Syria, with concerns over a possible Russian or Chinese veto holding up a European push for a vote to condemn the Assad regime's crackdown. - AFP

HOME PAGE

Debate Over Religious Freedom in Syria Causes Anger in Los Angeles Diaspora Mary Slosson (Freelance journalist)Huffington Post,05/24/11

As the fight for democracy and human rights in Syria reaches fever pitch, with Syrian security forces killing at least 500 activists by some estimates, the drama has spilled over into diaspora communities outside the country. The Syrian-American community of the greater Los Angeles area - centered just five miles from Disneyland - has fractured so intensely over the issue that they now spend their weekends screaming at each other at protests instead of picnicking together as they once did.

Supporters and opponents of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad clashed in front of Los Angeles' Federal Building on a recent weekend in April, yelling at each other as a dozen police officers intervened and an LAPD helicopter hovered overhead.

"Most of the people at this rally are part of my mosque community and they've known each other for, literally, decades," wrote blogger Tasbeeh Herwees after the incident. "They've raised their children together, gone to the same picnics, prayed at Friday

13

14

prayers side-by-side. They're friends. Neighbors. And now they're protesting at opposite sides of the street."

On one side, a gray-haired man with a pressed oxford shirt tucked into khaki pants stood beside a middle-aged woman in a conservative dress and hijab, both holding signs that said "48 years is enough," referring to the long reign of Bashar al-Assad and his even more brutal father, Hafez al-Assad. They were flanked by children and were both yelling in Arabic at the opposing side.

The pro-Bashar activists, some of whom called themselves members of the "Dr. Bashar al-Assad Lovers Committee," shouted right back as children held signs with large glossy pictures of al-Assad with the captions "Bashar is peace" and "Bashar is security."

Some of the pro-Bashar ranks were taking photos of the opposition protesters, sparking fears that the tentacles of Syrian state repression had extended the 7500 miles between Damascus and Los Angeles.

"Some of their group are paid informants by the government," said Mazen Almoukdad, one of the anti-Assad activists. He recognized one man named Riad, he said, who had "spent a few years with secret police and openly represents the [Syrian] government."

Ammar Kahf, a leader of the local opposition protests and the Los Angeles representative of the Syrian Emergency Task Force, a nation-wide coalition that works in solidarity with opposition friends and family back in Syria, seconded that Anaheim-based businessmen who were "employed by security services in Syria before coming here" were asked by the local Syrian consulate to promote the government back home, which has been suffering something of a public relations problem since opposition protests began.

14

15

The man Almoukdad identified as Riad "partnered up with three other businessmen to save their bosses image," Kahf said, referring to Bashar al-Assad.

That man, Riad "Ray" Saeid, works as editor-in-chief of the Anaheim-based Arabic language newspaper Al-Alam Al Arabi, which has recently begun publishing pro-Assad articles.

When asked if such accusations were true, Saeid responded with a long, resounding laugh.

"That talk is crap," he said before launching into accusations of his own. "They are a bunch of criminals, fanatics, al Qaeda, Muslim Brotherhood."

While a shroud of mystery and intrigue surrounds Saeid, at least among the opposition protesters in Los Angeles, his unequivocal support of Bashar al-Assad is certain.

Al-Alam Al Arabi ran a story on the confrontational protest at the Federal Building, writing in an Arabic-language story that Syrians with "loyalty and love for their country" were there to reject "attempts to sedition and acts of sabotage carried out by a group of agents and spies who want evil to the homeland."

As a result of that and similar stories, Saeid lamented that community member "are throwing away copies of our paper" in the local mosques.

One thing is clear: the vitriolic debate dividing the diaspora community in the greater Los Angeles community is just a microcosm of the life-or-death debate back home in Syria, where hundreds of non-violent grassroots protesters have lost their lives at the hands of state security forces.

At the heart of their fierce animosity is a debate over how to best protect Syria's myriad religious communities: Sunni Muslims,

15

16

Shi'a Muslims, Christians, Druzes, Alawis, Jews, Yazidis, Ismailis, and others.

Those in support of al-Assad make the argument that his Ba'athist regime, brutal as it has been, has kept the peace between warring religious factions. Unlike neighboring countries like Lebanon, whose 15-year civil war saw brutal and bloody inter-religious feuds, Syria has been relatively free of such strife, they claim.

"We want peaceful existence between all groups: Salawi, Jews, Christians, Druzes," said Saeid. "I don't care what religion you are, if you go the church, synagogue, or mosque. Belief is between you and God."

Of his opponents, Saeid says that "they want to live like Afghanistan, they want to live like the Taliban. They want to kill seven million Syrians in order to built an Islamic state."

Some in attendance at the Federal Building protest in April echoed Saeid's accusations about the religious motivation of the diaspora opposition movement.

Those are the Muslim Brotherhood," said Faraja Issa, gesturing towards the opposition protesters. "They want to take Syria back, they want to do just like they did in Afghanistan."

The Ba'athist ideology that has, according to supporters, kept the peace between warring religious factions has come at a price in the Arab world. Most closely associated with dictators like al-Assad and Saddam Hussein, the Arab nationalist doctrine has been implemented at high cost, often with jailing and torturing of dissidents.

Reports abound of underground prisons in Syria where political prisoners are held for years, without access to sunlight, let alone friends and family.

16

17

Opponents of the regime argue that torture, a massively repressive police state, and an unaccountable dictatorship are an unacceptable price to pay for religious peace.

The recent bloodshed has only entrenched the opposition's position. Syrian security forces have been responding to peaceful protests with live ammunition fired from military assault weapons, according to Human Rights Watch. Christof Heyns, the United Nations special rapporteur on extrajudicial executions, said that "live ammunition is being used in clear violation of international law."

"I know people are dying, people are taking bullets in the chest. People are choosing to do that because they want freedom more than anything else," said Mohja Kahf, a poet and professor at the University of Arkansas who has been an active member of the diaspora opposition (and who also happens to be Ammar's sister). She says that the protests have united Kurds, Christians, Muslims and non-believers behind a vision of Syria as a free, tolerant state.

"Whether behind bars or exiled, we are free on the inside now," she said. "Freedom is something you have and you act on in the inside. [The Syrian protesters] are free. Nothing the government can do can intimidate them or change that now."

"Syria is a very ethnically diverse country," said Ammar Kahf. "But Syria is one country, undivided. They continue to utilize the threat of sectarian issues. The [Syrian] regime has been using those sectarian division threats, too. This is all fabrication."

Staunch al-Assad supporters like Saeid have little sympathy for such activists, especially those causing unrest at home in Syria.

The protesters will be "thrown in jail and punished for every drop of blood shed in our country," Saeid said. I don't want to say they are traitors to their country. But they are dumb. They are stupid. They don't understand the consequences. They don't understand what is waiting for them."

17

18

But with men, women and children of all religious affiliations being killed back home in the struggle for a more free, more tolerant state, at least according to Mohja Kahf, those members of the diaspora community who are sympathetic are doing everything they can to help.

"I'm not eating very much or sleeping very much," she said. "We really want to just do everything we can to support and megaphone their voices, especially because there are very few independent journalists allowed in Syria. It's important that the world knows what's happening."

HOME PAGE

Nuclear report on Syria may augur punitive action IAEA findings that Syria 'very likely' pursued a secret program may add to foreign pressure on Damascus amid a government crackdown on protesters. A separate report says Iran has expanded its nuclear capacity and stockpile.By Borzou Daragahi, Los Angeles TimesMay 25, 2011

Reporting from BeirutThe United Nations' nuclear watchdog released a detailed report saying Syria "very likely" pursued a clandestine nuclear program, an assertion that is expected to add pressure on a regime already reeling from protests at home and sanctions imposed abroad.

A confidential report published Tuesday by the International Atomic Energy Agency said Syria was building a nuclear reactor at a site in Dair Alzour that was bombed by Israel in September 2007 and had not declared the project to international inspectors, as required by Syria's international treaty obligations.

The details of the previously reported IAEA allegation that Syria was seeking to build a reactor will come as no surprise to the United States. U.S. intelligence agencies in April 2008 presented

18

19

evidence asserting that Syria was building a clandestine plutonium reactor at Dair Alzour.

But the report paves the way for possible punitive action against Syria at the U.N. Security Council at a time when the West is seeking ways to increase pressure on President Bashar Assad over his regime's brutal crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators.

"The agency finally weighed in and came up with a conclusion that most governments came up with years ago," said David Albright, a former weapons inspector who now heads the Institute for Science and International Security, a Washington arms control watchdog. "This is laying down the gauntlet against Syria."

The report stops short of bluntly accusing Syria of being in noncompliance with its treaty obligations. But with Damascus already under intense international pressure, it may be enough to assemble a resolution against the nation, Western diplomats said.

"You can't ignore the timing," said Albright. "Syria is politically weaker than it was six months ago, and it might be easier to muster the votes at the [IAEA] board to refer this to the Security Council."

Although no text of a proposed resolution has been passed around among members of the agency's Board of Governors or among Security Council members, discussions involving the U.S. and other countries on a possible resolution were ongoing, said a Western diplomat.

"As soon as the report is out, we will begin putting a text down to paper," said another Western diplomat.

The inspectors' report notes the challenges of assessing a site that was bombed by Israel, bulldozed by the Syrian government afterward and blocked to inspection since June 2008, when traces of uranium particles were found that Syria alleged must have come from Israeli bombs.

19

20

Based on the particles and historical satellite imagery showing the site's progression and its layout, the agency concluded that "the site could not have served the purpose claimed by Syria," which had maintained it was an unused military installation.

A separate report on Iran's nuclear program obtained by The Times says that the Islamic Republic, Syria's strategic partner, had steadily increased the number of centrifuges producing enriched uranium and expanded its production of nuclear fuel.

According to the report, Iran increased its total stockpile of reactor-grade nuclear fuel enriched to about 3.5% purity by 14% in the last three months, to 9,050 pounds, apparently overcoming any lingering effects of a computer virus attack on its nuclear infrastructure.

Iran also increased the number centrifuges refining uranium by 13% to 5,860 machines at its facility near the city of Natanz.

In addition, it has produced 125 pounds of medical-reactor-grade uranium enriched to 20% purity for a research facility in Tehran, up by about 30 pounds from the last reporting period, according to a copy of the U.N. inspectors' report.

Iran says it needs the higher-grade fuel for the Tehran Research Reactor after international proposals to recharge the ailing plant collapsed.

But the report could ease tensions between Iran and the West, which accuses Tehran of pursuing nuclear weapons, because Iran has not yet installed centrifuges at its previously undisclosed enrichment facility at Fordow nor launched a set of much-touted advanced centrifuges, Albright said.

HOME PAGE

20

21

The worse life gets for Mubarak, the harder Assad will fight Kelly McParland,National Post,24 May 2011,

There was a moment, it seemed, when Hosni Mubarak had a chance to get away with it.

When the crowds had gathered in Tahrir Square, and were chanting for change, there was a window of opportunity during which Mubarak might have deftly managed the situation in a way that would have allowed him and his family to live out their lives in ease and luxury, albeit in exile.

If he’d conceded, early on, that 30 years as president was enough and it was time to move on, he could probably have made it to the airport before anyone figured out where the money was hidden. Instead he held on until he was forced out, and now Egypt’s public prosecutor says Mubarak and his sons and allies will face trial for “intentional murder, attempted killing of some demonstrators … misuse of influence and deliberately wasting public funds and unlawfully making private financial gains and profits.”

Mr. Mubarak is in hospital, reportedly from a heart problem. His sons are in jail. His wife has handed over the code to her bank account, and a luxury villa. And you can bet that Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad is paying close attention.

Assad has been putting up a much more brutal fight to retain his job than Mubarak did in Egypt. More than 800 people were reported killed during the 18-day standoff in Cairo. Assad’s forces have killed at least that many, and the Syrian strongman has sent tanks into numerous towns and cities, shelling entire neighbourhoods as a form of “collective punishment” against the challenge to his rule. As in Egypt, the violence appears to have only steeled the determination of the protesters, who say things

21

22

have gone too far for Assad to buy his way out with half-hearted reforms.

Western powers, which took their time gathering the nerve to confront Assad, are showing a bit more spine. The U.S. has imposed sanctions; the European Union said Monday it would follow suit, and Canada is considering doing so as well.

So Assad knows he’s not just battling a brush fire that might reduce some of his powers; he’s trying to save everything he and his family have been able to steal in the 40 years they’ve run the country. He also has to pay much closer attention to the “allies” around him in government, who will be sizing up his vulnerabilities and watching for the moment when he’s weak enough to be attacked from within. It has become harder and harder for despots to stash money outside the country and out of the hands of foreign powers or successors seeking retribution. If he has to flee, and manages to get his family out, he still has to worry about the prospect of being charged by the International Crimninal Court, as Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi has been.

The arrest warrants appear to have convinced Gaddafi to stick around a fight to the finish, even if it means taking the country’s infrastructure with him. The fate facing Gaddafi and Mubarak can only encourage Assad to fight even harder now, before he gets to that stage. Which probably means life in Syria is going to get a whole lot more repressive, dangerous and bloodier before any hope of getting better.

HOME PAGE

US policy on Syria 'depends on success in Libya' Kim Ghattas,BBC,24 May 2011,

President Barack Obama called on Libya's Muammar Gaddafi to leave power at the end of February.

22

23

Almost three months, two UN resolutions and a Nato operation later, Col Gaddafi is still in power.

When Washington looks at Syria today, it fears a repeat; long drawn-out international pressure with no clear outcome.

There is no suggestion whatsoever that anyone would consider military intervention in Syria but the US and Europe, their hands full in Libya, are wary even of a purely diplomatic quagmire.

The call for Col Gaddafi to leave came within roughly 10 days of the big protests starting and reports of hundreds of people having been killed.

In comparison, the demonstrations in Syria have been going for more than two months, more than 1,000 people are reported to have been killed, and the Assad government has deployed tanks which are besieging, and shelling, towns.

Initially, the hesitation to put intense pressure on Syria was driven mostly by the hope that Mr Assad could still prove himself a reformer.

Hope for peaceThe Syrian president had carefully cultivated that image. He introduced limited economic reforms during several years and promised more changes.

He sounded reasonable to all his foreign visitors, many of whom also held on to the hope that Mr Assad could eventually be peeled away from his Iranian allies and convinced to sign a peace deal with Israel.

Protesters against President Assad have paid a high price for their defiance So the Obama administration increased pressure on Syria incrementally. First, it issued statements, condemning the violence and calling for reforms.

23

24

It slowly showed more support for the protesters, while still calling for reforms.

At the end of April, the US and the EU imposed sanctions on members of the Syrian leadership, including the president's brother, Maher and his cousin, Rami Makhlouf.

Unlike with Muammar Gaddafi - who is disliked by most other Arab leaders - there have been no calls from Arab countries for increased international pressure on Syria.

Its borders with Iraq, Lebanon, Israel and Turkey make Syria a much more challenging case for the US, but also for regional players.

'Devil we know' The lack of Arab enthusiasm for pressure on Mr Assad allowed the US and the EU to move more slowly.

While Syria and Israel are still technically at war, there is a certain modus vivendi between the two countries that has kept the border between them quiet for decades.

Israel's attitude has been one of "better the devil we know", though there are some signs that Israel is beginning to think about the possible advantages of a post-Assad Syria.

President Assad's actions reveal his true intentions, says US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton In Washington as well as European capitals, the consensus seems to be that Mr Assad's days are numbered even though there is no decision to call on him to go.

While the West decided it could never work with Col Gaddafi again, there would still be a willingness to work with Mr Assad if he suddenly made concrete, genuine efforts towards dialogue and democracy.

24

25

The US and its Western allies also do not want to call for the departure of another leader and find him still sitting in his presidential palace weeks later, said a European diplomat speaking on condition of anonymity.

"If we want to address Syria, we have to deal with Libya first," said the diplomat.

Ammar Abdulhamid, a long time Syrian dissident who has been living in exile in the US since 2005, suggests the administration is slowing down the process that would lead to calls for Mr Assad to leave - trying to buy time "while they try to finish things in Libya".

Only last week did US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton make the direct link between Mr Assad and the violence, saying he talked about reform, but his actions showed his true intentions. Washington subsequently imposed sanctions on Mr Assad himself.

'One last chance' On Thursday, Mr Obama went further in his Middle East speech at the state department, calling on Mr Assad to lead the transition to democracy - or leave.

But he stopped short of calling on him to step down, or of saying the Syrian president had lost legitimacy.

Protesters are pictured fleeing gunfire on the main street of Homs, Syria's third city Again he left the window open but raised the bar higher for what Mr Assad had to do to survive in the eyes of the international community.

On Tuesday, Mrs Clinton made another reference to that window.

25

26

"Assad has said a lot of things that you didn't hear from other leaders in the region about the kind of changes he would like to see. That may all be out the window, or he may have one last chance," she said.

Mr Abdulhamid acknowledged that another reason why the US has refrained from calling on Mr Assad to go is its uncertainty about a post-Assad future.

"They don't believe he's a reformer, but they can't see an alternative," he said.

A large number of opposition groups are now reportedly planning to meet in Turkey at the end of the month, to attempt to elect a transitional council, connect with protesters inside the country, and present the international community with a clear alternative to Assad.

If they succeed, it would move the debate about Syria into a new phase.

HOME PAGE

Rotary Member Speaks About Events in Syria May 25, 2011The Intelligencer / Wheeling News-Register

One reason why American policy toward insurrections in Syria may appear hesitant is that U.S. officials are not certain whether a change of regime in Damascus would be beneficial, members of the Wheeling Rotary Club were told Tuesday.

Rotary member John Egan McAteer of Wheeling discussed recent - and not-so-recent - events in Syria after he and his wife visited that country in March. McAteer's distinguished career with the U.S. State Department Foreign Service includes extensive experience in the Middle East.

26

27

McAteer told Rotary members he and his wife visited Syria to examine ancient ruins, including some of the finest Roman ones in the world. Three days before they were scheduled to leave the country, the new round of demonstrations began. According to the Associated Press, the Syrian military already has killed about 1,000 people in attempts to put down what may be a budding insurrection.

It is the most serious revolt against authority since a 1982 insurrection, led by the Muslim Brotherhood, in the city of Hamah, McAteer said. That uprising was crushed when Syrian tanks shelled a section of the city, killing at least 10,000 people.

Although about 70 percent of Syrians are Sunni Muslims and the Assad ruling family is of the Shiite sect, religious differences are not the problem they have been in some Middle Eastern countries, McAteer noted. He explained the Assad regime takes "a pluralistic view toward religion" that has not proven repressive toward those of other faiths. For example, he noted, there are active Christian groups in Syria, including two villages where Aramaic - the language spoken in the region when Christ was alive - is still used.

The fact the regime is under Shiite control has made Syria a close ally of Iran, which is nearly exclusively of that religion, McAteer said. He added that, "It is through Syria that the Shia militia in Lebanon is able to get its rockets" - which then are fired into Israel.

Despite some tension - the Golan Heights region of Syria was seized by Israel in the 1967 war - Israelis "are comfortable with the Syrians - they know they can defeat them militarily," McAteer explained. U.S. officials have much the same feeling, in part because little is known about demonstrators who are opposing the regime.

"We're not at all sure in Washington whether a change in regime would be something better than we've lived with for 30 or 40 years," he said.

HOME PAGE

27

28

Leading article: Mission creep and perilous tactics in Libya Independent,Wednesday, 25 May 2011

Few could have imagined when air strikes began in Libya in March that Colonel Muammar Gaddafi would still be in power two months later. But a stalemate has emerged. Nato air power has prevented rebel forces from being defeated but it has not secured victory for them. So the war is being escalated. Tripoli has suffered the biggest air attack so far. The French have announced that they will now send in attack helicopters. Britain is considering doing the same.

Washington has said that "time is working against Gaddafi" but political rhetoric seems to have outstripped what the military, constrained by the United Nations' March resolution, can deliver. The tacit strategy now seems to be one of "accidental assassination" – with the hope that repeated air attacks on Libyan command centres will do what cannot be admitted to under international law, and kill Gaddafi.

This is a perilous tactic. One strike has apparently killed Saif al-Arab Gaddafi, one of the Libyan leader's sons. Unlike his brothers, he was not a military commander or propagandist. The fear is that his father could use the death to harden diplomatic reluctance over the war, in Russia and China and among more wary allies, like Germany and Turkey, and incense wider Arab opinion. Even were Gaddafi himself killed, his son Saif al-Islam could take over and continue the war. A de facto partition of Libya looks possible. So does a collapse into Somalia-like factional chaos.

The horror of the current situation should not be underestimated. There are worrying reports of organised rape, with 295 instances now documented. But the lack of clarity about this operation, confused from the outset, is ever more apparent. Barack Obama and David Cameron have vowed jointly to continue the military

28

29

strikes until UN resolution 1973 has been "completely complied with".

Yet what does that mean? With a cagey US administration eager to hold this "European war" at arm's length, that could eventually leave Britain and France bearing the military burden alone, with no exit strategy and no real idea of what might a post-Gaddafi Libya look like. These are dangerous times.

HOME PAGE

Israeli mortar shell lands near Syria border; none hurt Jerusalem Post,24/05/2011 A mortar shell landed on the southern side of Israel's border with Syria on Tuesday afternoon. There were no casualties reported on either side of the border.

An initial investigation found that the fire came from IDF troops training in the Golan Heights.

HOME PAGE

NPR RADIO: 'Questions Over Syria: ‘Who’s Leading Revolution… Are We Going To Have Stability?’'..(Audio)..

Fox News: 'Should U.S. Continue in Libya?'..

Washington Post: ‘ Canada imposes economic sanctions on Syria in response to crackdown ’..

Haaretz: 'Netanyahu's speech to Congress shows America will buy anything'..

CRI English: 'China Against Foreign Intervention in Syria: FM'..

UPI: 'No word on kidnapped Estonian cyclists'..

29

30

Guardian: 'Obama, Netanyahu and the 1967 border'..

Guardian: 'Don't be fooled by the applause, Binyamin Netanyahu'..

Washington Post: 'Syrian rights group: Death toll in crackdown on 9-week Syria uprising now exceeds 1,000'..

Guardian: ‘Obama and Cameron must break this addiction to war’..

HOME PAGE

30