Sanford C. Bernstein’s China Unconventional Gas Investor...
Transcript of Sanford C. Bernstein’s China Unconventional Gas Investor...
Sanford C. Bernstein’s
China Unconventional GasInvestor Day 2011Simon Potter (CEO)
Hong Kong, 16 February 2011
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• Resource rich Governments with massive unfulfilled energy markets are racing to create domestic CBM industries and need credible and reliable industry leaders to emerge
• This is “The Time” for CBM and unconventional gas – companies with the right expertise, business model, portfolio and cost/funding structure will prosper
• Success in CBM will be driven by low-cost, ‘local’, commercially nimble and technically excellent operators, enhanced by access to global capabilities and skills. Dart is both ‘local’ and ‘global’, and this is a unique value proposition
• 2010: Foundations – demerger from Arrow, grew the portfolio and team, re-entered Australia via Apollo, built business processes to underpin success
• 2011: Delivery of an extensive exploration programme and early-stage development / commercialisation strategies across the portfolio
• 2012: Development phase and into production with the long-term objective of creating a series of self-sustaining regional Dart businesses.
Opportunity
CompetitiveAdvantage
Performance
TO BE THE FIRST GLOBAL COAL SEAM GAS COMPANYDART ENERGY
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TRACK RECORD, EXPERIENCE AND OPPORTUNITYDART ENERGY
BOARD AND MANAGEMENT • Nathan Rayner – Chief Operating Officer• Peter Roles – Chief Technical Officer• Martin Cooper – Chief Financial Officer• Eytan Uliel – Chief Commercial Officer• Robbert de Weijer – Australia MD
COST, EFFICIENCY, TECHNOLOGY MARKET AND PRICING
CHINA INDONESIA INDIA VIETNAM AUSTRALIA USA EUROPE
Low cost, early entry in areas with significant resource potentialProximity to growth gas markets and infrastructure
Leveraged by rapid reserves growth once pilot project proves conceptMargins maximised: low-cost base - existing infrastructure; revenue upside – pricing, fiscal termsAccess multiple markets in multiple jurisdictions
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2010 2012
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Dajing PSC (PetroChina)
Liulin PSC
Tatapani-Ramkola block / CBMIV
Tien Hai Block
Sangatta West PSC
Tanjung Enim PSC
Apollo Gas Blocks
Afghanistan
Pakistan
INDIA
Nepal
Burma
Thailand
Laos
CambodiaVIETNAM Philippines
INDONESIA
Taiwan
South Korea
North Korea
CHINA
MalaysiaSri Lanka
Mongolia1
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AUSTRALIA
Office locations
Jakarta
Singapore
HanoiGurgaon
Beijing
CLEAR COMMERCIAL TARGETS
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Brisbane
Stirling
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Target of 70 PJ per annum net production by 2015
Revised forward targets to end 2011, as follows:Sign-up 4 new licenses (including Composite)Appraise and execute 6 new pilot projectsNegotiate and execute 2 new Gas Sales Agreements
Sustained commercial production rates during 2011 in multiple jurisdictions in support of reserves growth
Targeting 175/1,500 PJ of 2P/3P net reserves respectively by end 2011
Commence commercial gas sales in 2012 or earlier
Licencesd AreasBusiness Development
OfficesSydney
DART ENERGY
CHINA ASSETSELEPHANT HUNTING
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RESOURCE (BCF, gross, per NSAI)Liulin: OGIP 808; 2C 241; 3P 85Dajing: OGIP 6,589; Prospective 3,481
PROGRAMLiulin pilot drilling ongoing; initial GSA signed; move to early production; reserves upgradeDajing to commence exploration program
PIPELINE
Further Liulin equity increaseNew PSC; NOC framework agreement; CMM
MARKET STRATEGYCentral China: local power sales, pricing upside LNG/CNGXinjiang: local sales (Urumqi), ramp-up to export via West-East pipeline to major markets in EastPARTNERS
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Complete CUCBM’s State Pilot Project objectives: Production capacity: 50 x 106 m3/year
Chinese reserves certification: 7.5 x 109 m3
Well-count:• 50 x vertical/frac• 5 x horizontals
Additional FLG Objectives Test all major seams (3/4, 5 & 8/9) with lateral wells
Demonstrate commercial rates (lateral and vertical wells)
International reserve certification across the entire block
Plan further gas marketing activities
Prepare for reserves certification and ODP across entire block (all seams), to be approved in 2011
FORTUNE LIULING GAS (FLG) – 2010 OBJECTIVESCHINA: LIULIN PSC
Overview CHINA: LIULIN PSC
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• Xian Changqing Design institute has been commissioned to design the gathering system and nodal compression.
• GSA - 1.3 BCF per annum over a period of 15 years. First gas to be delivered by July 2011, take-or-pay obligations commencing July 2012
• Agreed gas price 1.58 RMB per cubic metre (1.38 RMB base plus annual escalation and review, plus 0.20 RMB government subsidy). This equates to approximately A$ 7.00 per gigajoule
• 2011 work program includes 5 in-seam wells, 3 vertical frac wells and pipeline/compression design and installation
• Dart Energy equity 45%, phased options to grow to 75%
2011 PROPOSED WELL DESIGNCHINA: LIULIN PSC
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Inseam Cluster (development concept)– 2 x inseam wells– Up to 3 layers– Up to 24,000m of inseam hole– All operations on one drill pad– Drilling to commence in 2011 on 3
clusters
4,000m inseam
hole
0.9km2 drainage
300m separation
30m offset
1 drill Pad
“Slant”vertical
Initially target seams 3/4 & 5
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COMPETITIVE OUTLOOKCHINA: DAJING PSC
DRILL HOLE DISTRIBUTION MAPCHINA: DAJING PSC
For Y1( Phase I)Exploration commitment: 14 exploration wellsMinimum expenditure obligation: $4 mm USD
For Y2 (Phase II)Exploration commitment: 6 exploration wells & 5 pilot wells Minimum expenditure obligation: $5 mm USD
For Y3 (Phase III)Exploration commitment: 5 pilot wellsMinimum expenditure obligation: $3.5 mm USD
2011 PROGRAM CHINA: DAJING PSC
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<500m
500-1000m
>1000m
• 14 core wells planned for 2011.
• Later wells could be converted to pilot wells (subject to partner approval).
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New PSCs
•Foreign cooperation granted to wider group of companies
•CNOOC strategic relationship with CUBCM
Farm-ins and acquisitions
•High entry costs; “Inherit the baggage”
Down Stream Partners
•Integrate different skills sets
Alliance
GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES CHINA
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COST STRUCTURE
MARGIN
CO-OPERATION
TECHNOLOGY
GROWTH
SHALE
ISSUESCHINA
AN INTERNATIONAL, MULTIPLE MARKET APPROACHDART ENERGY PORTFOLIO AN INTERNATIONAL, MULTIPLE MARKET APPROACH
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An international portfolio approach allows:
1 In addition Apollo has 2 Geothermal Licences covering 3,500 km2
An international portfolio approach allows:
Balance and offsetting of risk
Transfer of learning and experience across geographies and licencing / operating g p g g p g p gregimes, differing coal basins and markets
Efficiency of resource allocation and optimisation of low-cost strategies
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Ability to recruit and retain the best people in the business globally
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EXPENDITURE BY REGION
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Access Drill DevelopPilot
Poland: NewLicences
CMM India
Sangatta West
AustraliaEurope licences
Delivered or likely to be delivered
Possibility of delivery
Maturing
Indonesia HoA
Tanjung Enim
UK: 14th Round
Apollo 458, 456
ONGC India
Pilot- to-powerGas Sales
DEVELOPMENT FUNNEL
2P3P
TR India
Satpura
Assam PEDL 133
Apollo 461
Apollo 463
Kebur
Adaro I - V
FEEC
UK Shale
CMM China
Shale
CProspective
Hanoi
CIS
Africa
Now
1 Year
2 Years
Liulin
Dajing
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This presentation contains forward-looking statements that are subject to risk factors associated with the gas and energy industry. It is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, but they may be affected by a range of variables outside the control of Dart Energy Limited and its Directors which could cause actual results or trends to differ materially, including but not limited to: price and currency fluctuations, geotechnical factors, drilling and production results, development progress, operating results, reserve estimates, legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments, economic and financial markets conditions in various countries, approvals and cost estimates. Therefore, undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements.
All references to dollars, cents or $ in this document are to Australian currency, unless otherwise stated.
This presentation is not an offer or recommendation in relation to securities in Dart Energy Limited. It includes only a summary of select information and does not, and does not purport to, contain all information relevant to those securities. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. Except to the extent required by law, Dart Energy Limited disclaims any obligation to correct, update or revise this presentation or oral communications associated with this presentation.
The reserves and resource estimates used in this presentation were compiled by Dan Paul Smith and John Hattner of Netherland, Sewell & Associated, Inc., Dallas, and are consistent with the definitions of proved, probable, and possible hydrocarbon reserves that appear in the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) Listing Rules. Mr. Smith and Mr Hattner are qualified in accordance with the requirements of ASX listing rule 5.11 and consents to the use of the resource and reserve figures in the form and context in which they appear in this presentation. Other resource information in this presentation has been compiled by Nathan Rayner who at the time of preparation was a fulltime employee of the Company. Mr Rayner is qualified in accordance with ASX listing rule 5.11 and has consented to the form and context in which they appear in this presentation.
DISCLAIMER AND IMPORTANT NOTICE
AUSTRALIA ASSETS
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GOING AGAIN – GROW FAST; GROW BIG
Pipelines
1 PEL458 (Newcastle) and other PELs proximate to NSW markets
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RESOURCE (BCF, gross, per NSAI)Apollo: 7 PELs - 23,600km2, 2 geothermal licences -3,500km2
PEL458: OGIP 1,342; 2C 542PEL456: OGIP 2,042; 3C 939Other PELs: Work in progress
PARTNERS (takeover offer announced)
PROGRAMPEL 458 - completed Phase 1 exploration; commencing Phase 2PEL 464 - seismic and 2 strat wells5 other blocks; portfolio options
PIPELINEAdditional tenements
MARKET STRATEGYNSW focus: advantaged pricing and infrastructureIncremental demand, new gas-fired capacityGas is 9% of energy mix; 96% from out-of-State
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2 PELs in Gunnedah basin
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• 7 PELs - 23,600km2, 2 geothermal licences - 3,500km2
• CSG plays, conventional gas and shale
• Core hole drilling program, seismic surveys and testing active in 5 PELs
• Santos QNT proceeding with farmin work program in PEL 456
• Projected demand growth in NSW proximal markets of Sydney, Newcastle & the Hunter Valley
• Overlaying and adjacent to existing and proposed gas infrastructure
• Incremental power demand and gas-fired capacity growth opportunities
• Feasibility for an LNG project at Newcastle
COMPANY OVERVIEWACQUISITION OF APOLLO GAS
INDONESIA ASSETSPOTENTIAL FOR EARLY PRODUCTION
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RESOURCE (BCF, gross, per NSAI)Tanjung Enim: OGIP 472; Prospective 307Sangatta West: OGIP 587; 2C 314
PROGRAMSangatta West, pilot tests commencing; reserves certification; move to early productionTanjung Enim to commence 6 well exploration and pilot program
PIPELINEAdaro PSCs (x3); Kebur PSCHoAs Salamander, MedCo, others
MARKET STRATEGYKalimantan: pilot-to-power, ramp-up to Bontang, LNG pricingSouth Sumatra: pilot-to-power, then export to Java
PARTNERS
INDIA ASSETSMULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES
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RESOURCE (BCF, gross, per NSAI)Asam: OGIP 1,960; Prospective 750Satpura: OGIP 1,798; Prospective 910
PROGRAMTR block dewateringCBM-IV blocks (x2) recently awarded
PIPELINECMM (x3)ONGC farm-ins
MARKET STRATEGYLocal sales as CNG. Once scale established, regional distribution via pipeline
PARTNERS
EUROPEAN ASSETSCOMPOSITE ACQUISITION ADDS OPTIONALITY
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RESOURCE (BCF, gross, per NSAI)CSG OGIP 18,130; Prospective 8,600; 2C 770Shale OGIP: 1,220
ASSETS15 UK blocks; 2 Poland blocks - In-place teamDart acquired 10%; options to increase to 20% in Jan 2011 and 100% in June 2011
PARTNERMajor partner BG
PROGRAMPEDL 133 CSG pilot and shale evaluation
PIPELINEProgress shale assessment. Multiple new tenements across Europe under assessment
MARKETLocal sales. Scalable via pipeline export
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Two potential shale gas plays within PEDL 133;
• The Black Metals Marine Band at depths between 1,000 and 4,000 feet. Appraised by coring at two locations on PEDL 133.
Estimated GIP: 0.3 – 4.0 Tcf (NSAI range)
• The West Lothian Oil Shale Formation at depths >6,000 feet. Appraised from regional data.
Estimated GIP: 7.4 – 11.6 Tcf
• BG has a 50% interest in the lower West Lothian Oil Shale Formation only
• Opportunity to assess key shale exploitation competencies, costs and technologies
• Ability to evaluate synergies with CSG development in European setting
PEDL 133EUROPEAN SHALE