San Juan County Workers

Workforce depletion since 1990

Why are our young people leaving?

What can we do about it?

A Report by the Orcas Research Grouphttp://orcasresearch.org

April 6, 2005

Our Population is AgingSan Juan County Population Distribution

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Under5 years

5 to 14years

15 to24

years

25 to34

years

35 to44

years

45 to54

years

55 to64

years

65 to74

years

75 to84

years

85yearsandover

1990 2000 2003 WA

WA

1990

2003

Our Population aged 25-44 declined from 30% in 1990 to 20% in 2003Meanwhile, those aged 45-64 increased from 24% to 38%

Source: US Census & WA Databook

Our Workforce Lags Population GrowthPopulation and Labor Force 1990-2004

4,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000

10,00011,00012,00013,00014,00015,00016,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Year

La

bo

r F

orc

e

Labor Force Population

Since 2000, our resident workforce declined from 51% to 44%

Source: The Labor Market and Economic Analysis (LMEA) Branch of the Washington State Employment Security Department

Year 2002 Salaries in San Juan County

$-$5,000

$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,000$30,000$35,000$40,000$45,000$50,000

Employment Sector

Sa

lary

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Salary Percent of Workforce

22%

11%$24,640

21%

Low Salaries are a Problem

Over half of our workers have low paying jobs.

Source: US Census, County Business Patterns& Washington Low Income Housing Alliance

“Living Wage” $29,723

Cost of Housing is a Bigger Problem

A typical 3 bedroom, 2 bath home is beyond the reach of many.Nearly twice the cost of equivalent homes on the mainland.

Source: Washington Center for Real Estate Research

Median House Prices in Nearby Counties

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

94:Q2 95:Q2 96:Q2 97:Q2 98:Q2 99:Q2 00:Q2 01:Q2 02:Q2 03:Q2 04:Q2

Year:Quarter

Ho

use

Pri

ce

Island San Juan Skagit Whatcom

Priced out of the Market!Financing Affordable Housing for a Family of Four

$200,000

$220,000

$240,000

$260,000

$280,000

$300,000

$320,000

$340,000

$360,000

$380,000

$400,000

$3

5,0

00

$4

0,0

00

$4

5,0

00

$5

0,0

00

$5

5,0

00

$6

0,0

00

$6

5,0

00

$7

0,0

00

$7

5,0

00

$8

0,0

00

$8

5,0

00

Household Income

Ho

use V

alu

e

6% Conventional

5% Conventional

4% ARM

ModerateIncome

MiddleIncome

6%6%

LowIncome

5%

4%

With the cost of a 3 bedroom, 2 bath home now approaching $300,000, even with 5% fixed rate mortgages, few middle income families can buy.

Source: HUD Income Categories based on 2005 Median Income

Losing Ground!Who will qualify for today's $215,000 home in the

future?

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

$100,000

$110,000

$120,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Year

Ho

us

eh

old

Inc

om

e

Expected Income Qualifying Income

Todayhomecosts

$215,000

Home nowcosts

$339,000

Assumes 30 year, 20% down, 6% fixed rate mortgage, 8% appreciation, 3% inflation, 0.2%/year increase in interest.

Losing Ground!

Assumes 30 year, 20% down, 6% fixed rate mortgage, 8% appreciation, 3% inflation, 0.2%/year increase in interest.

Home nowcosts

$437,000

Todayhomecosts

$275,000

Who will qualify for today's $275,000 home in the future?

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

$100,000

$110,000

$120,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Year

Ho

us

eh

old

Inc

om

e

Expected Income Qualifying Income

Why do we care?

• Infrastructure Worker Survey (Orcas)– Teachers, Deputies, Paramedics, Utility

Workers, Medical Staff, etc (~200 people).– 18% to 29% turnover expected in next 5 years.– Approximately 25% will involve skills not

available on-island.– Need to attract and retain critical skills.

• 10-20 moderate/middle income homes needed on Orcas Island in the next 5 years.

Source: December 2004 Survey, Orcas Research Group

Solutions Needed…

If we are going to solve this problem, we need to get creative in how we use public and private financing.

Financing Affordable Housing for a Family of Four

$200,000

$220,000

$240,000

$260,000

$280,000

$300,000

$320,000

$340,000

$360,000

$380,000

$400,000$

35

,00

0

$4

0,0

00

$4

5,0

00

$5

0,0

00

$5

5,0

00

$6

0,0

00

$6

5,0

00

$7

0,0

00

$7

5,0

00

$8

0,0

00

$8

5,0

00

Household Income

Ho

use

Val

ue

6% Conventional

5% Conventional

4% ARM

6% w/ Land Trust

ModerateIncome

MiddleIncome

6%6%

SharedEquity

LowIncome

5%

Is there hope?

• Yes, if we bring together our best ideas while there is still time to act.– Bring together public and private financing– Create an inventory of perpetually affordable

homes.

• No, if we wait until we have to resort to draconian solutions.– We can learn from the experiences of

Nantucket, Aspen, Hilton Head and others.

A Healthy Community is…

A place where our working families can afford to live within

the community.