Sales Management Sales Forecasting Topic 13. Sales Forecasting What is it? Why do it? Qualitative vs...

16
Sales Management Sales Forecasting Topic 13

TAGS:

Transcript of Sales Management Sales Forecasting Topic 13. Sales Forecasting What is it? Why do it? Qualitative vs...

Page 1: Sales Management Sales Forecasting Topic 13. Sales Forecasting What is it? Why do it? Qualitative vs Quantitative Goal = Accuracy Commonly Done by Marketing.

Sales Management

Sales Forecasting

Topic 13

Page 2: Sales Management Sales Forecasting Topic 13. Sales Forecasting What is it? Why do it? Qualitative vs Quantitative Goal = Accuracy Commonly Done by Marketing.

Sales Forecasting

• What is it?• Why do it?• Qualitative vs Quantitative• Goal = Accuracy• Commonly Done by Marketing

Page 3: Sales Management Sales Forecasting Topic 13. Sales Forecasting What is it? Why do it? Qualitative vs Quantitative Goal = Accuracy Commonly Done by Marketing.

Forecasting Overview

• Hard to do, but must be done• Shorter Time Frames are more accurate• Harder for New Products • No Substitute for Actual Demand• Done for Each Product, Territory, …..• Multiple Methods often used

Page 4: Sales Management Sales Forecasting Topic 13. Sales Forecasting What is it? Why do it? Qualitative vs Quantitative Goal = Accuracy Commonly Done by Marketing.

Goal is….

• Accuracy• Accuracy• And• Accuracy

Page 5: Sales Management Sales Forecasting Topic 13. Sales Forecasting What is it? Why do it? Qualitative vs Quantitative Goal = Accuracy Commonly Done by Marketing.

Mean Absolute % Error (MAPE)

• Why Mape (or MSE)?• All past forecasts• Does not control for external shocks

Page 6: Sales Management Sales Forecasting Topic 13. Sales Forecasting What is it? Why do it? Qualitative vs Quantitative Goal = Accuracy Commonly Done by Marketing.

Patterns

• Trend• Seasonality• Cycle• Outliers

Page 7: Sales Management Sales Forecasting Topic 13. Sales Forecasting What is it? Why do it? Qualitative vs Quantitative Goal = Accuracy Commonly Done by Marketing.

Market Potential

• Buying Power Index• NAICS• Trade Press• Chain Ratio• Leading Indicators

Page 8: Sales Management Sales Forecasting Topic 13. Sales Forecasting What is it? Why do it? Qualitative vs Quantitative Goal = Accuracy Commonly Done by Marketing.

Qualitative Methods

• Turning Points & Shocks• Sales Force Composite• Jury of Executive Opinion• Survey of Customer Buying Intentions

Page 9: Sales Management Sales Forecasting Topic 13. Sales Forecasting What is it? Why do it? Qualitative vs Quantitative Goal = Accuracy Commonly Done by Marketing.

Quantitative Methods

• Strong & Weak Points• Seasonal Adjustments• Naïve• Moving Averages• Exponential Smoothing• Other Methods

Page 10: Sales Management Sales Forecasting Topic 13. Sales Forecasting What is it? Why do it? Qualitative vs Quantitative Goal = Accuracy Commonly Done by Marketing.

Naïve Method

• Previous Period = Forecast• More Accurate than you think

Page 11: Sales Management Sales Forecasting Topic 13. Sales Forecasting What is it? Why do it? Qualitative vs Quantitative Goal = Accuracy Commonly Done by Marketing.

Moving Averages

• 2PMA• 3PMA• Ex 2PMA:• t1 = 100• t2 = 150• Forecast = 125

Page 12: Sales Management Sales Forecasting Topic 13. Sales Forecasting What is it? Why do it? Qualitative vs Quantitative Goal = Accuracy Commonly Done by Marketing.

Exponential Smoothing

• 2 Formulas• Usually High Alpha (why done)

Page 13: Sales Management Sales Forecasting Topic 13. Sales Forecasting What is it? Why do it? Qualitative vs Quantitative Goal = Accuracy Commonly Done by Marketing.

Exponential Smoothing Example

• Alpha = 0.9• 2020 = 1000• 2021 = 1200• 2022 = 1100• 2022 forecast = .9 (1200) + .1 (1000) = 1180• 2023 forecast = .9 (1100) + .1 (1180) = 1108

Page 14: Sales Management Sales Forecasting Topic 13. Sales Forecasting What is it? Why do it? Qualitative vs Quantitative Goal = Accuracy Commonly Done by Marketing.

Regression

• Dependent vs Independent Variables• Can you get data?• Better than using dependent variable alone?

Page 15: Sales Management Sales Forecasting Topic 13. Sales Forecasting What is it? Why do it? Qualitative vs Quantitative Goal = Accuracy Commonly Done by Marketing.

Trend Projections

• Why Done• Problems With

Page 16: Sales Management Sales Forecasting Topic 13. Sales Forecasting What is it? Why do it? Qualitative vs Quantitative Goal = Accuracy Commonly Done by Marketing.

Most Firms Use > 1 Method


Forecasting of Demandeclt5940/protected/Forecasting-S.pdf · Forecasting v.s. Planning • When sales dept. shows sales forecasts, be cautious. They may be goals • Both forecasting

Forecasting of Demandeclt5940/protected/Forecasting-S.pdf · Forecasting v.s. Planning • When sales dept. shows sales forecasts, be cautious. They may be goals • Both forecasting

Managing the Sales Forecasting Process...1 1 Managing the Sales Forecasting Process A company thought it had a forecasting problem. Many of its products were “slow movers, with spikes.”

Managing the Sales Forecasting Process...1 1 Managing the Sales Forecasting Process A company thought it had a forecasting problem. Many of its products were “slow movers, with spikes.”

SALES FORECASTING METHOD

SALES FORECASTING METHOD

Sales & Revenue Forecasting Series - MaRSmarsdd.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Bottom-up-sales-forecasting... · Sales & Revenue Forecasting Series ... based. This method is ... activity

Sales & Revenue Forecasting Series - MaRSmarsdd.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Bottom-up-sales-forecasting... · Sales & Revenue Forecasting Series ... based. This method is ... activity

Administering Oracle Sales Planning Cloud · Advanced Sales Forecasting provides a robust platform for the sales forecasting process, allowing multidimensional sales forecasting across

Administering Oracle Sales Planning Cloud · Advanced Sales Forecasting provides a robust platform for the sales forecasting process, allowing multidimensional sales forecasting across

Incite!Sales: Sales Portfolio Forecasting System

Incite!Sales: Sales Portfolio Forecasting System

1 Sales Forecasting & Budgeting Chapter 9 &10. 2 Sales Forecast It is estimate of a company’s sale for a specified future period. Sales forecasting provides.

1 Sales Forecasting & Budgeting Chapter 9 &10. 2 Sales Forecast It is estimate of a company’s sale for a specified future period. Sales forecasting provides.

HVAC Sales Forecasting

HVAC Sales Forecasting

Sales budget & forecasting

Sales budget & forecasting

Sales Forecasting Vruhali

Sales Forecasting Vruhali

KEY BENEFITS PLANNING AND FORECASTING · Forecasting Dyna-Cast forecasting predicts future sales by forecasting each item using multiple methods. Then it selects the best method for

KEY BENEFITS PLANNING AND FORECASTING · Forecasting Dyna-Cast forecasting predicts future sales by forecasting each item using multiple methods. Then it selects the best method for

Sales Forecasting Capabilities

Sales Forecasting Capabilities

Sales Forecasting

Sales Forecasting

Sales Forecasting Management

Sales Forecasting Management

Managing the Sales Forecasting Process · Managing the Sales Forecasting Process A company thought it had a forecasting problem. Many of its products were ... (Sales).qxd 11/2/2004

Managing the Sales Forecasting Process · Managing the Sales Forecasting Process A company thought it had a forecasting problem. Many of its products were ... (Sales).qxd 11/2/2004

Introduction to Sales Forecasting Sales Forecasting ... · PDF fileIntroduction to Sales Forecasting ... Sales Forecasting ... budgeting and risk management. Accurate sales forecasting

Introduction to Sales Forecasting Sales Forecasting ... · PDF fileIntroduction to Sales Forecasting ... Sales Forecasting ... budgeting and risk management. Accurate sales forecasting

Sales Forecasting Methods

Sales Forecasting Methods

Sales Budgeting Forecasting

Sales Budgeting Forecasting

Sales Forecasting - Carrefour

Sales Forecasting - Carrefour

2176984 Sales Forecasting

2176984 Sales Forecasting