Sagan Effects 2.0: The Celebritization of Science in a Social Media Age

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    Sagan Effects 2.0: The Celebritization of Science in a Social Media Age1

    Sagan Effects 2.0: The Celebritization of Science

    in a Social Media Age

    Dan MichalskiMay 6, 2014

    JMS 715 Final

    Abstract

    The television show Cosmos is experiencing its second incarnation as a popularizer of

    science. But will this also foretell a second coming of the Sagan Effect? This term refers

    to a perception bias that incorrectly presumed the quantity and quality of a scientists work

    related inversely with a sudden rise in media attention. As a new generation of popular

    scientists emerges in the 21st century, social media may have muted the Sagan Effect, but

    underlying mechanisms may still be in play. This paper attempts to measure comparatively

    the potential influence of various celebrities from science and elsewhere, and also

    introduces the Dawkins Corollary, which considers the role of multiple voices and

    personality types within the collective fabric of science communications in smiting any

    lingering Sagan Effect in academia.

    Keywords: Celebrity, Science, Pop culture, Carl Sagan, Neil deGrasse Tyson, Richard

    Dawkins, Cosmos, Bill Nye, will.i.am

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    Introduction

    Carl Sagan was arguably the biggest name in astrophysics for the entire 20th

    century. He made major and significant discoveries -- successfully predicting surface

    conditions on Venus, for example, and showing how common elements found in space

    could produce amino acids, the building blocks of life, with exposure to radiation. But it was

    his TV show Cosmos: A Personal Voyage in 1980 that made him a real star. Cosmos

    would be seen by nearly a half billion people in 60 countries, making it the most watched

    series in the history of public television. His book of the same name would become the

    best-selling science tome ever published in English -- on the New York Times bestseller

    list for 70 weeks. Hed receive dozens of awards throughout his career, including the

    Pulitzer Prize, a Peabody (for Cosmos ), three Hugo awards, and two NASA medals -- one

    for Exceptional Scientific Achievement, the other for Distinguished Public Service

    (Giberson & Artigas, 2006).

    With humans making their way into space in the 1960s, and sending more detailed

    pictures back to Earth in the 1970s, Sagan was the one who could explain it all. And with

    his hit show, not only did he make science entertaining, but with the ability to reach virtually

    every school teacher in America, he shaped the way an entire nation, an entire people, an

    entire planet, saw itself. The long-term effect of Sagans vision of the universe has yet to be

    fully realized, as it was Sagan who played the most critical role in crafting the first and thus

    far only human messages from Earth sent outward beyond our solar system (Jensen, et al.,

    2008).

    Sagan was arguably the biggest inspiration for science since Neil Armstrong. Yet

    he was not so beloved by his academic contemporaries, who essentially considered him a

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    sellout. It was more than just envious disdain: Sagan would be denied tenure at Harvard

    University, and the National Science Foundation would revoke his membership on the

    premise this man on TV was no scientist -- he was at best an entertainer, and he wore

    turtlenecks no less!

    The backlash from the science community directed at Sagan as his success would

    come to be known as The Sagan Effect -- which explains a presumption that increased

    media exposure leads to a decrease in quantity and quality of scientific research. But in

    fact this perceived inverse relationship turned out to be the apex of scientific irony, as later

    looks revealed no facts to back up this perception (Jones, 2013).

    Jensen et al. (2008) looked most closely at the science perception phenomenon

    among science communicators, and found in fact, that when taking into account general

    trends for slight deceleration of research to be in line with other professions. Sagan and

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    other researchers engaged in science communications were continuing to churn out work

    of high quality, at only a slightly decelerated pace, and an accelerated pace when

    accounting for general slowdowns due to age and a career path that has them spending

    more time guiding other peoples work. The unfortunate thing even after Sagan had

    recuperated his scientific reputation on his death at age 62, other scientists were hesitant

    to direct their efforts toward improving their media game, and treating it like an essential

    step in the scientific process (Russo, 2010). And therein was the ultimate irony -- proof

    positive that the science community, in the face of overwhelming, seemingly

    insurmountable success, would try to eat its own.

    Party Like a Geological Supernova

    Science seems to be hot again. While some say it might have to do with

    technological innovations, climate change, and major recent discoveries (such as proof of

    the Big Bang Theory), others contend any perceived increase in science popularity

    probably has more to do with cultural exposure from a top-rated TV sitcom such as The

    Big Bang Theory . Other plausible contributors include shows such as Mythbusters , and

    the general popularity of science-based niche cable networks (The Learning Channel,

    Discovery Channel, National Geographic). NASA seems to contribute to the overall

    popularization of Sagan-style cosmology through an active social media presence for its

    personified Mars-roving bots. But whatever the cause, there is a wave of newly popularized

    science -- and a celebrity contingent that goes with it that includes scientists and longtime

    Hollywood types intermingling. At a minimum science celebrity is keeping pace with the

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    growth of celebrity presences overall (Peters, et al., 2008), and scientists finding the most

    fame are getting support from famous people finding science.

    Figure 1. Celebrity brotherhood: Sciencecommunicator Bill Nye shows an affinity for the world heshares with rapper Kanye West.

    Scientists are now geostellar humanoids --.or rock stars, as they are known to the

    lesser educated masses. Not just figuratively, either. A new subcultural hot spot has

    evolved at the convergence of Hollywood entertainment and theoretical physics. And for

    some its not just lip service. Rapper Will.i.am, for example, is trying to get kids, primarily

    students in the urban poor areas he grew up in, into STEM and is launching school

    programs to facilitate students buying in to the concept of sciences being cool. In a display

    to kids of whats possible, he was able to partner with government agencies to broadcast

    music from Mars. Other celebrities jumping on the science train include Matt Damon, Penn

    Jillette, Don Cheadle. Stephen Colbert regularly has scientists on as guests helping them

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    spread their message. Alan Alda has opened a namesake school at the State University of

    New York, Stony Brook, where they are focussing on science communication -- running

    media savvy boot camps to develop relationships with media that take seriously their role

    in serving as the bridge between the scientists and the public (Shure, 2012). The media

    have changed in the 21st century, and science communications have evolved into

    something more complex than simply a deficit model (Casini & Neresini, 2012).

    With this sort of attention and these signs growth taking place in science, on its face

    it seems the Sagan Effect has fully waned. (Jones, 2013; Plait, 2013). Indeed, Sagans

    protege Tyson may not be facing the same ostracization from science elites, but a deeperexamination suggests quite convincingly that contemporary non-linear modes of

    communication that helped release the ivory tower stranglehold on science communicators

    also gave birth to a new generation of science antagonists -- a group consisting of

    credentialed purveyors of pseudoscience as well as celebrities with no scientific street

    cred simply spreading their misinterpretation of someone elses bad science (DAddario

    2013). And this matters because we know their impact on policy (and attached funding) is

    consequential. (Street, 2012).

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    Figure 2. Pass the Mic: Carl Sagan (top left) sent his vision ofhumanity out into the cosmos. Entertainer Will.i.am is trying tosend word back. But his name is too generic to consider resultsfrom his celebrity measurement significant.

    Cause Clbre

    There is some literature providing a frame for how we might look at the Sagan

    Effect and related phenomenon in a contemporary setting. Anderson, Allan, Petersen, &

    Wilkinson (2005) show how celebrities add news value to any story to which they attachthemselves. The direct media impact is often overstated it turns out, as celebrities do not

    automatically get coverage of everything they do. However, the strategic impact of

    something well-timed can last far beyond any one celebrity appearance. To explain this

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    they studied the results of Prince Charless voicing support for nanotechnology Charles had

    no particular expertise in nanotechnology, but he was able to ingratiate himself enough to

    convince the public that he was trustworthy on this matter. And while he was hardly

    instrumental in future coverage that would lead to policy change, his celebrity kickstart got

    the press coverage that began 15 months of news coverage. That helped sway public

    opinion enough to eventually impact policy. Because public perception can indeed shape

    policy, and to that extent the scientists and celebrities alike, when viewed from media,

    stand to be used as high-value pieces in political strategy (Anderson et al., 2005; Street,

    2012; Woolery, 1998).Once science enters the celebrity realm, it automatically becomes equally (or more)

    about style than substance (Thrall, 2008). A study of attitudes about stem cell research

    noted, however, that any perceived advances of scientific message are mitigated by

    inevitable negative forces that emerge, which amount to, essentially, collectively, for every

    two steps forward one step back (conceptually; the math has not yet been tested). But what

    was clear was that scientific knowledge played only a minor role in influencing collective

    attitude, with religiosity, ideology, and deference to scientific authority moderating the

    effects. (Ho, 2008)

    Why does celebrity even matter in science? The research says that at a certain

    point the perceived celebrity of a celebrity mattered more than the purity of the science --

    and to that extent, scientists have to ask what is the goal. Does it matter if inexact scienceleads to money and programs that help save the environment, for example? Northfield and

    McMahon (2010), in their study of the Crocodile Hunters impact on Australian

    environmentalism, say the impact is not always direct, and not always built on good

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    science. Truth is the public does not want to have to evaluate the science, so they would

    rather evaluate the scientist, and once someone establishes credibility, for better or for

    worse it is hard to lose, which is why young scientists confident in their work should seek to

    establish themselves early to see their credibility grow, even if it is not fully deserved. While

    this makes some things easier for the science side of any communications equation, it of

    course is also what makes quality science vulnerable to assault (Kruvand, 2012; Otto,

    2011).

    Figure 3. Close Encounters: Scientists may be closer tohalls of power than ever before, but does a selfie constitutean audience? (And what does it say about their friends?)

    Methodology

    Though publicly accessible algorithms and celebrity ranking systems do currently

    exist online, there is a surprising dearth of science-related personalities included in these

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    databases (which, of course, justifies the need for further study). To make better sense of

    media popularity for scientists, I whipped up a mixed methods study -- starting with

    qualitative sample selection ( N=62) based on several months of JMS 715 students

    observing the appearance of science in popular media, and sundry Internet searches

    around the topics of science, celebrities, and popular media. This moderated convenience

    sample is by no means comprehensive, but does cover a respectable bulk of scientists

    who also are public personalities. For a control group, i included politicians, athletes,

    musicians. And also poker players. The data set can be expanded vertically by adding

    more names, and horizontally by updating the quantitative measures to see how they moveover time.

    From this sample, I assigned them to one of five categories (Celebrity scientist,

    friend of science, opponent of science, science media, control group), noted age, level of

    academic degree, and the background from which they came to science. Then I did some

    additional research to determine the religion (if stated) using primarily Hollowverse.com, a

    website that attempts to track religious affiliation among other measures. From the

    quantitative components I attempted to measure message exposure, reach, and influence.

    Here is a brief rundown of selected online media measurement tools, and why they were

    selected:

    YouTube Search Returns. Measures how often celebrity appears in shared videos. Accommodates appearances on multiple shows, and other people referencing said

    appearances. Provides measure of exposure and reach.

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    Facebook Likes. Similar measure of reach, but this one also provides a means for

    spreading the message, with fans who are more ready to engage because of the

    opt-in nature of liking.

    Twitter Followers . A metric for measuring reach and potential influence, as it

    represents people who have opted in to identify themselves as someone who is

    following.

    Google Search Results. How often does this celebritys name appear on theInternet. Reveals what Google robots have attached to these names, too, making no

    judgment of good or bad intent, as this algorith then determines influence.

    Google Pagerank. Virtually all science celebrities have a web page (even the dead

    ones) serving as their personal public home. Expressed as a number from 0 to 10

    over 10 this number is a google-controlled factor that calculates the value of

    incoming links, and thus reflects not just the quality of their website programing

    teams, but also how in control they are of their own message.

    All nominal searches were conducted in quotes to better filter results, and were targeting

    official, or most legitimate sites, and looked at the most official sources to quantify reachand recognition. Then, to come up with a singular comparative number that accounts for

    different possible media strategies, devised a calculation. While I am no mathematical

    theorist, future would likely benefit from more advanced statistical crunching, but for now the

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    formula used simply adds up the different social media metrics, and for google search

    results, multiplies that by the page rank.

    YT searches + FB likes +TW followers + (G searches * Gpagerank /10) = CV

    This gave us an overall celebrity value -- expressed in US$ but can be seen as virtually any

    unit. While specifics of this formula could be debatable, the strength is in its comparative

    values. And the process helped identify other areas to look at for correlations.

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    suggesting estates and family members see definitive value in their names, even if none of

    them ever lived long enough to Google themselves.

    Scientists still, are nowhere near as big as some of the stars who support them and

    have a greater celebrity value, which provides a reality check on any scientist who may be

    thinking he or she is more famous than they actually are. Note, however, heir celebrity value

    isnt all spent on science, and therefore deserves to be factored based on how much of

    their public life is for that cause.

    Two outliers were Will.i.am and Pope Francis, with the rapper producing results that

    were statistically too large, presumably based on the commonality of his name, and thepontiffs were too small, based on a diffusion of world wide influences limiting his results to

    mostly North American numbers.

    One thing I noticed while doing the various nominal and ordinal research was that no

    celebrity got to where they are without significant accomplishment. And even those who

    can somehow fake their way to a certain level of success, there seemed to be no examples

    of any sustaining it -- unless they had built up their celebrity prior to becoming involved in

    science.

    Also, atheism seemed to be the dominant religious affiliation among scientists and

    their Hollywood friends, while pantheism used to be the preferred religious designation for

    scientists who had to engage with the public.

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    Figure 4: Revenge of the Nerds? An appearance onThe Simpsons for Stephen Hawking shows the placethey have found in culture.

    And one other curious and presumably significant accidental finding was that

    teams proved to be stronger than the individuals -- in all cases the whole was greater than

    the sum of its parts. While both Adam Savage and Jamie Hyneman have good numbers

    (CV=1.75 million, 700.6K), they are neither as big as Mythbusters (CV=9.4 million). We

    found that similarly, the Rolling Stones (CV=30.1 million) were much bigger than Mick

    Jagger (CV=5.6 million).

    Though we would want to devise additional tests, the notion is that how powerful are

    some of these high-end celebrities when working together, as there appears to be strength

    in numbers. And herein lies the real power benefit for the scientist (Ho, 2008). Someone

    can attempt to discredit Neil deGrasse Tyson, but if that is not enough to get other trusted

    scientific sources to call him out for his errors, the accuser ends up seeing his claims

    summarily dismissed.

    Tartaric Prolate Spheroids of Vitis Genus?

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    One new phenomenon on display is the rise of microcelebrities. They are key in

    that they did not exist in Sagans day, as they build their fame much on social media and

    live events (Tufecki, 2013). Each has their own smaller following, and are an instrumental

    part of the reason why the current wave of celebrities can not only establish a community

    and culture, but give it the strength that has it resembling a movement (Thrall et al., 2008).

    Horst (2013) tried to define how people present themselves, and the 22 Danish

    scientists they spoke to for their qualitative study, they all acknowledged they fluctuated.

    Horst (2013) suggests there are three roles that science communicators can adopt -- Field

    Expert, Research Manager, and Guardian of Science. Id like to recode those a bit, andadd one more. A field expert is exactly that, one who is an expert in their field and speaks

    with authority about these topics; what she calls research manager is one who represents

    an organization (like an astronaut representing NASA); and the third, Guardian of Science,

    is exactly that and all it implies, so we will keep that designation. Each of these come with

    their own strengths and weaknesses, and contribute and subtract from credibility. This

    study joins Casini and Neresini (2012) in acknowledging that they still do not see it as

    integral to the research. However, Id like to add one more -- the Fanboy/girl. Fanboy is

    the person who buys what the scientist is selling -- whether that be a theory, a belief

    system, or a T-shirt -- and therein lies the culture that gives them so much more impact

    because of the way the different personality types on the science landscape.

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    Figure 5. Not all haters come from outside of science.

    But that emergence of power goes both ways. Even with the ivory tower elites fully

    evirated, a reactionary vacuum has given rise to haters, posers, and trolls. These

    personality types are worthy of a psychological study in and of themselves. These people

    have virtually no power, other than to annoy. But be persistent enough, and they can crack

    through, and set the celebrity off track. Posers are the pseudo scientist using scientific

    methods and papers to promote junk science. These are the ones who can be seen if not

    causing harm, contributing to it. Jenny McCarthy and her ability to spread autism myths is a

    perfect example.

    Haters can come from the outside, like Jose Canseco and Bill Nye, or from the

    inside -- people who are scientists that complain about imperfections in the presentation of

    the science. But before we hate on the haters, we should not forget that they are not

    automatically a weight slowing down the progress of science. It can seem that way, but

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    there is also reason to see them as an inevitable counterweight to the fanboys, and some

    might contend they provide a raison detre, that it not only sucks the energy and wastes the

    time, but fuels it, as it provides a raison de etre for scientists and their fans.

    Similarly, without them, would we have a belief in science blossom into a full blown

    culture and potential movement? In fact one thing that has not been looked at are the fans,

    the culture, the people who are willing to do your bidding. They buy T-shirts, they rebuke the

    trolls, but also they are establishing a culture. This is the culture that builds on itself, and it

    arguably has something to do with attracting the other celebrities to it, which fuels more. It

    fuels an industry, and more people not doing pure science sure, but there is a place for allof them.

    Using Horsts (2008) typology, and adding one more -- the Fan -- you can

    conceptualize in a general sense how these subsets might feed off each other.

    Their flipside are posers, haters, prophets. and trolls. Trolls have the least amount of power

    and are simply a nuisance, but they give the haters something, and provide a buffer for the

    posers, and ultimately it is the prophets. the case, id like to contend there is a flipside to

    that, comprising their opponents, whether coming from pseudoscience (posers), science

    (haters), religion or simply celebrities spreading bad science (prophets). These are the

    forces, diffused along a mathematical trajectory that has yet to be defined, from the every

    acton having an equal and opposite reaction.

    Based on these numbers, you get a sense where people lie, and how differentdynamics might work. Horst says they can go from one to the other. You can see how the

    fanboy/girls are on the front lines to neutralize the trolls; but the haters and posers are more

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    devious, and only sometimes predictable. It shows the tension and balance that exist with

    any meaningful science communications in the 21st century:

    Guardians

    Organizers

    Experts

    Fans

    TrollsHaters

    Posers

    Prophets

    Causality is not clear, but these are the types we see emerging, and they have

    different roles and different power. They also have different authorities. Now to be fair, this

    reveals some of my own bias, as this could be twisted around, literally flipped, for a

    theology paper. And to that extent, nothing in this study determines unequivocally if the

    negative forces are indeed negative, subtracting from the efforts of positive forces, or if

    actually this tension could be feeding both sides for each others benefit.

    The Dawkins Corollary

    Meanwhile, the next in line is Richard Dawkins, the evolutionary biologist who made

    a name for himself in 1976, but only in recent years has he become truly famous. The

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    Dawkins Corrolary says that a fabric allows for other personalities to arise. And like the

    Sagan effect, there is great irony. And while it drives an atheist agenda, he too is bringing

    what he detests. They post-sagan patchwork allows him to be someone not just in terms of

    popularity but indirect credibility.

    A pocket of protection science celebrities currently get to enjoy, and reveals

    something about the patchwork of protection the new wave of science celebrities. It is a

    classic debate, nothing new. This split is seen so clearly with the two approaches of Nye

    and Dawkins over the debate with Ken Ham. Dawkins believes you are holding science

    back. Nye believes you have to go to where the non-believers are, and learn to speak tothem in their language. He wanted to reach more of them, by literally coming on to their turf.

    Figure 6.

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    The irony is however, and maybe Dawkins is aware, that he could not be in the

    position he is in without them, and without their approach to science communications.

    without the openness that lets in those he doesnt agree with. Dawkins could only get big in

    the current environment. Dawkins is able to thrive only because this, an he is able to suck

    the credibility off of them. Barack Obama never wouldve taken a selfie with such an

    evangelical atheist (at least not without facing tremendous political fallout), but he can with

    Tyson and Nye, and because of their science similarities, are dismissed for tolerating the

    vitriol that Dawkins professes. This becomes part of the fabric of science, and if anything,

    this patchwork allows for multiple voices in science to emerge and allow many to stick totheir principles. This broader network allows people to stick to their principles. (Tufecki,

    2013). And that has allowed Atheist scientists, empowered by their non-science celebrity

    connections, to have gotten downright evangelical. The ways in which they are advancing

    their agenda with science communications is rife with possibility for further study.

    Limitations

    There are of course limitations to this research. The celebrity algorithm employed

    could always benefit from heuristic tweaking. Specifically wed be interested in

    incorporating additional social media metrics, differentiating between fan support sites and

    oppositional sites, as this study does not calculate the difference between love and hate

    and relies on the assumption, to some extent, that all press is good press. Future studies

    would benefit from a statistical further operationalize the data set by overseeing proper

    chi-square and t-test analyses; other research possibilities this opens up would benefit

    from additional study of literature on organizational psychology as well as someone with an

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    historians eye for proper narrative. Also, much of the research looks at European

    scientists, while there could easily be a unique dynamic for American science, and

    particularly American science communicators. But for now, this look at the Sagan Effect

    revisited provides a solid foundation on which future research could build for further study of

    the social, political, economic, and cultural dynamics of science celebrities in the 21st

    century.

    Figure 7. A New Hope? While this concept may or may notbe realistic or desirable, it suggests a small army is formingaround wanting to follow,support, and defend them in battle

    Conclusion

    As things currently stand, very few people on this planet got into the intense study of

    science for the popularity it bestowed upon them. For many, it was the opposite -- a refuge

    from a more mainstream society that for whatever reasons could not, did not, or would not

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    keep up with the needs of the scientists intellect. But celebrities -- those who experience

    their own form of Big Bang explosion upon reaching a critical popular mass -- do have a

    role in policy, business, and even entertainment -- whether we like it or not.

    And hey, in the end, that is how science is supposed to work. With the passage of

    time, few people of any credibility deny the validity and strength of Sagans science. With

    the passage of more time, humankind will see where the science has him holding up in the

    annals of all recorded time. The ill effects for Sagan waned posthumously, as indeed the

    facts, and his science won out, even if he was not around to enjoy the fruits of his labor.

    So while people may no longer cast doubt on the credibility of his science, scientistswill debate for centuries moving forward on the necessity of having a good media game.

    Some will suggest it is as important to the scientific process as cleaning the laboratory.

    And while thats not to say that scholarly papers need to give co-author credit to publicists

    and janitors, this step will have an impact in how the public remembers ones science. To

    believe that science will always win out, to maintain a commitment to science under all

    circumstances you have to have faith.

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