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Sagan Effects 2.0: The Celebritization of Science in a Social Media Age1
Sagan Effects 2.0: The Celebritization of Science
in a Social Media Age
Dan MichalskiMay 6, 2014
JMS 715 Final
Abstract
The television show Cosmos is experiencing its second incarnation as a popularizer of
science. But will this also foretell a second coming of the Sagan Effect? This term refers
to a perception bias that incorrectly presumed the quantity and quality of a scientists work
related inversely with a sudden rise in media attention. As a new generation of popular
scientists emerges in the 21st century, social media may have muted the Sagan Effect, but
underlying mechanisms may still be in play. This paper attempts to measure comparatively
the potential influence of various celebrities from science and elsewhere, and also
introduces the Dawkins Corollary, which considers the role of multiple voices and
personality types within the collective fabric of science communications in smiting any
lingering Sagan Effect in academia.
Keywords: Celebrity, Science, Pop culture, Carl Sagan, Neil deGrasse Tyson, Richard
Dawkins, Cosmos, Bill Nye, will.i.am
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Introduction
Carl Sagan was arguably the biggest name in astrophysics for the entire 20th
century. He made major and significant discoveries -- successfully predicting surface
conditions on Venus, for example, and showing how common elements found in space
could produce amino acids, the building blocks of life, with exposure to radiation. But it was
his TV show Cosmos: A Personal Voyage in 1980 that made him a real star. Cosmos
would be seen by nearly a half billion people in 60 countries, making it the most watched
series in the history of public television. His book of the same name would become the
best-selling science tome ever published in English -- on the New York Times bestseller
list for 70 weeks. Hed receive dozens of awards throughout his career, including the
Pulitzer Prize, a Peabody (for Cosmos ), three Hugo awards, and two NASA medals -- one
for Exceptional Scientific Achievement, the other for Distinguished Public Service
(Giberson & Artigas, 2006).
With humans making their way into space in the 1960s, and sending more detailed
pictures back to Earth in the 1970s, Sagan was the one who could explain it all. And with
his hit show, not only did he make science entertaining, but with the ability to reach virtually
every school teacher in America, he shaped the way an entire nation, an entire people, an
entire planet, saw itself. The long-term effect of Sagans vision of the universe has yet to be
fully realized, as it was Sagan who played the most critical role in crafting the first and thus
far only human messages from Earth sent outward beyond our solar system (Jensen, et al.,
2008).
Sagan was arguably the biggest inspiration for science since Neil Armstrong. Yet
he was not so beloved by his academic contemporaries, who essentially considered him a
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sellout. It was more than just envious disdain: Sagan would be denied tenure at Harvard
University, and the National Science Foundation would revoke his membership on the
premise this man on TV was no scientist -- he was at best an entertainer, and he wore
turtlenecks no less!
The backlash from the science community directed at Sagan as his success would
come to be known as The Sagan Effect -- which explains a presumption that increased
media exposure leads to a decrease in quantity and quality of scientific research. But in
fact this perceived inverse relationship turned out to be the apex of scientific irony, as later
looks revealed no facts to back up this perception (Jones, 2013).
Jensen et al. (2008) looked most closely at the science perception phenomenon
among science communicators, and found in fact, that when taking into account general
trends for slight deceleration of research to be in line with other professions. Sagan and
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other researchers engaged in science communications were continuing to churn out work
of high quality, at only a slightly decelerated pace, and an accelerated pace when
accounting for general slowdowns due to age and a career path that has them spending
more time guiding other peoples work. The unfortunate thing even after Sagan had
recuperated his scientific reputation on his death at age 62, other scientists were hesitant
to direct their efforts toward improving their media game, and treating it like an essential
step in the scientific process (Russo, 2010). And therein was the ultimate irony -- proof
positive that the science community, in the face of overwhelming, seemingly
insurmountable success, would try to eat its own.
Party Like a Geological Supernova
Science seems to be hot again. While some say it might have to do with
technological innovations, climate change, and major recent discoveries (such as proof of
the Big Bang Theory), others contend any perceived increase in science popularity
probably has more to do with cultural exposure from a top-rated TV sitcom such as The
Big Bang Theory . Other plausible contributors include shows such as Mythbusters , and
the general popularity of science-based niche cable networks (The Learning Channel,
Discovery Channel, National Geographic). NASA seems to contribute to the overall
popularization of Sagan-style cosmology through an active social media presence for its
personified Mars-roving bots. But whatever the cause, there is a wave of newly popularized
science -- and a celebrity contingent that goes with it that includes scientists and longtime
Hollywood types intermingling. At a minimum science celebrity is keeping pace with the
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growth of celebrity presences overall (Peters, et al., 2008), and scientists finding the most
fame are getting support from famous people finding science.
Figure 1. Celebrity brotherhood: Sciencecommunicator Bill Nye shows an affinity for the world heshares with rapper Kanye West.
Scientists are now geostellar humanoids --.or rock stars, as they are known to the
lesser educated masses. Not just figuratively, either. A new subcultural hot spot has
evolved at the convergence of Hollywood entertainment and theoretical physics. And for
some its not just lip service. Rapper Will.i.am, for example, is trying to get kids, primarily
students in the urban poor areas he grew up in, into STEM and is launching school
programs to facilitate students buying in to the concept of sciences being cool. In a display
to kids of whats possible, he was able to partner with government agencies to broadcast
music from Mars. Other celebrities jumping on the science train include Matt Damon, Penn
Jillette, Don Cheadle. Stephen Colbert regularly has scientists on as guests helping them
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spread their message. Alan Alda has opened a namesake school at the State University of
New York, Stony Brook, where they are focussing on science communication -- running
media savvy boot camps to develop relationships with media that take seriously their role
in serving as the bridge between the scientists and the public (Shure, 2012). The media
have changed in the 21st century, and science communications have evolved into
something more complex than simply a deficit model (Casini & Neresini, 2012).
With this sort of attention and these signs growth taking place in science, on its face
it seems the Sagan Effect has fully waned. (Jones, 2013; Plait, 2013). Indeed, Sagans
protege Tyson may not be facing the same ostracization from science elites, but a deeperexamination suggests quite convincingly that contemporary non-linear modes of
communication that helped release the ivory tower stranglehold on science communicators
also gave birth to a new generation of science antagonists -- a group consisting of
credentialed purveyors of pseudoscience as well as celebrities with no scientific street
cred simply spreading their misinterpretation of someone elses bad science (DAddario
2013). And this matters because we know their impact on policy (and attached funding) is
consequential. (Street, 2012).
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Figure 2. Pass the Mic: Carl Sagan (top left) sent his vision ofhumanity out into the cosmos. Entertainer Will.i.am is trying tosend word back. But his name is too generic to consider resultsfrom his celebrity measurement significant.
Cause Clbre
There is some literature providing a frame for how we might look at the Sagan
Effect and related phenomenon in a contemporary setting. Anderson, Allan, Petersen, &
Wilkinson (2005) show how celebrities add news value to any story to which they attachthemselves. The direct media impact is often overstated it turns out, as celebrities do not
automatically get coverage of everything they do. However, the strategic impact of
something well-timed can last far beyond any one celebrity appearance. To explain this
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they studied the results of Prince Charless voicing support for nanotechnology Charles had
no particular expertise in nanotechnology, but he was able to ingratiate himself enough to
convince the public that he was trustworthy on this matter. And while he was hardly
instrumental in future coverage that would lead to policy change, his celebrity kickstart got
the press coverage that began 15 months of news coverage. That helped sway public
opinion enough to eventually impact policy. Because public perception can indeed shape
policy, and to that extent the scientists and celebrities alike, when viewed from media,
stand to be used as high-value pieces in political strategy (Anderson et al., 2005; Street,
2012; Woolery, 1998).Once science enters the celebrity realm, it automatically becomes equally (or more)
about style than substance (Thrall, 2008). A study of attitudes about stem cell research
noted, however, that any perceived advances of scientific message are mitigated by
inevitable negative forces that emerge, which amount to, essentially, collectively, for every
two steps forward one step back (conceptually; the math has not yet been tested). But what
was clear was that scientific knowledge played only a minor role in influencing collective
attitude, with religiosity, ideology, and deference to scientific authority moderating the
effects. (Ho, 2008)
Why does celebrity even matter in science? The research says that at a certain
point the perceived celebrity of a celebrity mattered more than the purity of the science --
and to that extent, scientists have to ask what is the goal. Does it matter if inexact scienceleads to money and programs that help save the environment, for example? Northfield and
McMahon (2010), in their study of the Crocodile Hunters impact on Australian
environmentalism, say the impact is not always direct, and not always built on good
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science. Truth is the public does not want to have to evaluate the science, so they would
rather evaluate the scientist, and once someone establishes credibility, for better or for
worse it is hard to lose, which is why young scientists confident in their work should seek to
establish themselves early to see their credibility grow, even if it is not fully deserved. While
this makes some things easier for the science side of any communications equation, it of
course is also what makes quality science vulnerable to assault (Kruvand, 2012; Otto,
2011).
Figure 3. Close Encounters: Scientists may be closer tohalls of power than ever before, but does a selfie constitutean audience? (And what does it say about their friends?)
Methodology
Though publicly accessible algorithms and celebrity ranking systems do currently
exist online, there is a surprising dearth of science-related personalities included in these
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databases (which, of course, justifies the need for further study). To make better sense of
media popularity for scientists, I whipped up a mixed methods study -- starting with
qualitative sample selection ( N=62) based on several months of JMS 715 students
observing the appearance of science in popular media, and sundry Internet searches
around the topics of science, celebrities, and popular media. This moderated convenience
sample is by no means comprehensive, but does cover a respectable bulk of scientists
who also are public personalities. For a control group, i included politicians, athletes,
musicians. And also poker players. The data set can be expanded vertically by adding
more names, and horizontally by updating the quantitative measures to see how they moveover time.
From this sample, I assigned them to one of five categories (Celebrity scientist,
friend of science, opponent of science, science media, control group), noted age, level of
academic degree, and the background from which they came to science. Then I did some
additional research to determine the religion (if stated) using primarily Hollowverse.com, a
website that attempts to track religious affiliation among other measures. From the
quantitative components I attempted to measure message exposure, reach, and influence.
Here is a brief rundown of selected online media measurement tools, and why they were
selected:
YouTube Search Returns. Measures how often celebrity appears in shared videos. Accommodates appearances on multiple shows, and other people referencing said
appearances. Provides measure of exposure and reach.
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Facebook Likes. Similar measure of reach, but this one also provides a means for
spreading the message, with fans who are more ready to engage because of the
opt-in nature of liking.
Twitter Followers . A metric for measuring reach and potential influence, as it
represents people who have opted in to identify themselves as someone who is
following.
Google Search Results. How often does this celebritys name appear on theInternet. Reveals what Google robots have attached to these names, too, making no
judgment of good or bad intent, as this algorith then determines influence.
Google Pagerank. Virtually all science celebrities have a web page (even the dead
ones) serving as their personal public home. Expressed as a number from 0 to 10
over 10 this number is a google-controlled factor that calculates the value of
incoming links, and thus reflects not just the quality of their website programing
teams, but also how in control they are of their own message.
All nominal searches were conducted in quotes to better filter results, and were targeting
official, or most legitimate sites, and looked at the most official sources to quantify reachand recognition. Then, to come up with a singular comparative number that accounts for
different possible media strategies, devised a calculation. While I am no mathematical
theorist, future would likely benefit from more advanced statistical crunching, but for now the
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formula used simply adds up the different social media metrics, and for google search
results, multiplies that by the page rank.
YT searches + FB likes +TW followers + (G searches * Gpagerank /10) = CV
This gave us an overall celebrity value -- expressed in US$ but can be seen as virtually any
unit. While specifics of this formula could be debatable, the strength is in its comparative
values. And the process helped identify other areas to look at for correlations.
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suggesting estates and family members see definitive value in their names, even if none of
them ever lived long enough to Google themselves.
Scientists still, are nowhere near as big as some of the stars who support them and
have a greater celebrity value, which provides a reality check on any scientist who may be
thinking he or she is more famous than they actually are. Note, however, heir celebrity value
isnt all spent on science, and therefore deserves to be factored based on how much of
their public life is for that cause.
Two outliers were Will.i.am and Pope Francis, with the rapper producing results that
were statistically too large, presumably based on the commonality of his name, and thepontiffs were too small, based on a diffusion of world wide influences limiting his results to
mostly North American numbers.
One thing I noticed while doing the various nominal and ordinal research was that no
celebrity got to where they are without significant accomplishment. And even those who
can somehow fake their way to a certain level of success, there seemed to be no examples
of any sustaining it -- unless they had built up their celebrity prior to becoming involved in
science.
Also, atheism seemed to be the dominant religious affiliation among scientists and
their Hollywood friends, while pantheism used to be the preferred religious designation for
scientists who had to engage with the public.
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Figure 4: Revenge of the Nerds? An appearance onThe Simpsons for Stephen Hawking shows the placethey have found in culture.
And one other curious and presumably significant accidental finding was that
teams proved to be stronger than the individuals -- in all cases the whole was greater than
the sum of its parts. While both Adam Savage and Jamie Hyneman have good numbers
(CV=1.75 million, 700.6K), they are neither as big as Mythbusters (CV=9.4 million). We
found that similarly, the Rolling Stones (CV=30.1 million) were much bigger than Mick
Jagger (CV=5.6 million).
Though we would want to devise additional tests, the notion is that how powerful are
some of these high-end celebrities when working together, as there appears to be strength
in numbers. And herein lies the real power benefit for the scientist (Ho, 2008). Someone
can attempt to discredit Neil deGrasse Tyson, but if that is not enough to get other trusted
scientific sources to call him out for his errors, the accuser ends up seeing his claims
summarily dismissed.
Tartaric Prolate Spheroids of Vitis Genus?
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One new phenomenon on display is the rise of microcelebrities. They are key in
that they did not exist in Sagans day, as they build their fame much on social media and
live events (Tufecki, 2013). Each has their own smaller following, and are an instrumental
part of the reason why the current wave of celebrities can not only establish a community
and culture, but give it the strength that has it resembling a movement (Thrall et al., 2008).
Horst (2013) tried to define how people present themselves, and the 22 Danish
scientists they spoke to for their qualitative study, they all acknowledged they fluctuated.
Horst (2013) suggests there are three roles that science communicators can adopt -- Field
Expert, Research Manager, and Guardian of Science. Id like to recode those a bit, andadd one more. A field expert is exactly that, one who is an expert in their field and speaks
with authority about these topics; what she calls research manager is one who represents
an organization (like an astronaut representing NASA); and the third, Guardian of Science,
is exactly that and all it implies, so we will keep that designation. Each of these come with
their own strengths and weaknesses, and contribute and subtract from credibility. This
study joins Casini and Neresini (2012) in acknowledging that they still do not see it as
integral to the research. However, Id like to add one more -- the Fanboy/girl. Fanboy is
the person who buys what the scientist is selling -- whether that be a theory, a belief
system, or a T-shirt -- and therein lies the culture that gives them so much more impact
because of the way the different personality types on the science landscape.
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Figure 5. Not all haters come from outside of science.
But that emergence of power goes both ways. Even with the ivory tower elites fully
evirated, a reactionary vacuum has given rise to haters, posers, and trolls. These
personality types are worthy of a psychological study in and of themselves. These people
have virtually no power, other than to annoy. But be persistent enough, and they can crack
through, and set the celebrity off track. Posers are the pseudo scientist using scientific
methods and papers to promote junk science. These are the ones who can be seen if not
causing harm, contributing to it. Jenny McCarthy and her ability to spread autism myths is a
perfect example.
Haters can come from the outside, like Jose Canseco and Bill Nye, or from the
inside -- people who are scientists that complain about imperfections in the presentation of
the science. But before we hate on the haters, we should not forget that they are not
automatically a weight slowing down the progress of science. It can seem that way, but
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there is also reason to see them as an inevitable counterweight to the fanboys, and some
might contend they provide a raison detre, that it not only sucks the energy and wastes the
time, but fuels it, as it provides a raison de etre for scientists and their fans.
Similarly, without them, would we have a belief in science blossom into a full blown
culture and potential movement? In fact one thing that has not been looked at are the fans,
the culture, the people who are willing to do your bidding. They buy T-shirts, they rebuke the
trolls, but also they are establishing a culture. This is the culture that builds on itself, and it
arguably has something to do with attracting the other celebrities to it, which fuels more. It
fuels an industry, and more people not doing pure science sure, but there is a place for allof them.
Using Horsts (2008) typology, and adding one more -- the Fan -- you can
conceptualize in a general sense how these subsets might feed off each other.
Their flipside are posers, haters, prophets. and trolls. Trolls have the least amount of power
and are simply a nuisance, but they give the haters something, and provide a buffer for the
posers, and ultimately it is the prophets. the case, id like to contend there is a flipside to
that, comprising their opponents, whether coming from pseudoscience (posers), science
(haters), religion or simply celebrities spreading bad science (prophets). These are the
forces, diffused along a mathematical trajectory that has yet to be defined, from the every
acton having an equal and opposite reaction.
Based on these numbers, you get a sense where people lie, and how differentdynamics might work. Horst says they can go from one to the other. You can see how the
fanboy/girls are on the front lines to neutralize the trolls; but the haters and posers are more
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devious, and only sometimes predictable. It shows the tension and balance that exist with
any meaningful science communications in the 21st century:
Guardians
Organizers
Experts
Fans
TrollsHaters
Posers
Prophets
Causality is not clear, but these are the types we see emerging, and they have
different roles and different power. They also have different authorities. Now to be fair, this
reveals some of my own bias, as this could be twisted around, literally flipped, for a
theology paper. And to that extent, nothing in this study determines unequivocally if the
negative forces are indeed negative, subtracting from the efforts of positive forces, or if
actually this tension could be feeding both sides for each others benefit.
The Dawkins Corollary
Meanwhile, the next in line is Richard Dawkins, the evolutionary biologist who made
a name for himself in 1976, but only in recent years has he become truly famous. The
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Dawkins Corrolary says that a fabric allows for other personalities to arise. And like the
Sagan effect, there is great irony. And while it drives an atheist agenda, he too is bringing
what he detests. They post-sagan patchwork allows him to be someone not just in terms of
popularity but indirect credibility.
A pocket of protection science celebrities currently get to enjoy, and reveals
something about the patchwork of protection the new wave of science celebrities. It is a
classic debate, nothing new. This split is seen so clearly with the two approaches of Nye
and Dawkins over the debate with Ken Ham. Dawkins believes you are holding science
back. Nye believes you have to go to where the non-believers are, and learn to speak tothem in their language. He wanted to reach more of them, by literally coming on to their turf.
Figure 6.
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The irony is however, and maybe Dawkins is aware, that he could not be in the
position he is in without them, and without their approach to science communications.
without the openness that lets in those he doesnt agree with. Dawkins could only get big in
the current environment. Dawkins is able to thrive only because this, an he is able to suck
the credibility off of them. Barack Obama never wouldve taken a selfie with such an
evangelical atheist (at least not without facing tremendous political fallout), but he can with
Tyson and Nye, and because of their science similarities, are dismissed for tolerating the
vitriol that Dawkins professes. This becomes part of the fabric of science, and if anything,
this patchwork allows for multiple voices in science to emerge and allow many to stick totheir principles. This broader network allows people to stick to their principles. (Tufecki,
2013). And that has allowed Atheist scientists, empowered by their non-science celebrity
connections, to have gotten downright evangelical. The ways in which they are advancing
their agenda with science communications is rife with possibility for further study.
Limitations
There are of course limitations to this research. The celebrity algorithm employed
could always benefit from heuristic tweaking. Specifically wed be interested in
incorporating additional social media metrics, differentiating between fan support sites and
oppositional sites, as this study does not calculate the difference between love and hate
and relies on the assumption, to some extent, that all press is good press. Future studies
would benefit from a statistical further operationalize the data set by overseeing proper
chi-square and t-test analyses; other research possibilities this opens up would benefit
from additional study of literature on organizational psychology as well as someone with an
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historians eye for proper narrative. Also, much of the research looks at European
scientists, while there could easily be a unique dynamic for American science, and
particularly American science communicators. But for now, this look at the Sagan Effect
revisited provides a solid foundation on which future research could build for further study of
the social, political, economic, and cultural dynamics of science celebrities in the 21st
century.
Figure 7. A New Hope? While this concept may or may notbe realistic or desirable, it suggests a small army is formingaround wanting to follow,support, and defend them in battle
Conclusion
As things currently stand, very few people on this planet got into the intense study of
science for the popularity it bestowed upon them. For many, it was the opposite -- a refuge
from a more mainstream society that for whatever reasons could not, did not, or would not
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keep up with the needs of the scientists intellect. But celebrities -- those who experience
their own form of Big Bang explosion upon reaching a critical popular mass -- do have a
role in policy, business, and even entertainment -- whether we like it or not.
And hey, in the end, that is how science is supposed to work. With the passage of
time, few people of any credibility deny the validity and strength of Sagans science. With
the passage of more time, humankind will see where the science has him holding up in the
annals of all recorded time. The ill effects for Sagan waned posthumously, as indeed the
facts, and his science won out, even if he was not around to enjoy the fruits of his labor.
So while people may no longer cast doubt on the credibility of his science, scientistswill debate for centuries moving forward on the necessity of having a good media game.
Some will suggest it is as important to the scientific process as cleaning the laboratory.
And while thats not to say that scholarly papers need to give co-author credit to publicists
and janitors, this step will have an impact in how the public remembers ones science. To
believe that science will always win out, to maintain a commitment to science under all
circumstances you have to have faith.
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DAddario, D. (2013). Suzanne Somers, Jenny McCarthy and Americas love of celebrity
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