1

Safety Risk Management Tools EVA Air’s Perspective & Implementation

Presented byDanny Ho

Safety & Security Div.EVA Air Corporation

Aug 30, 2013

2

Philosophy on Safety Risk Management

Predictive thinking, proactive implementation and reactive response.

Comprehensive, effective, feasible and sustainable.

Effective safety management requires the ability to have the right system to collect and analyze the right information at the right time.

3

Safety Risk Assessment of Flight Operation-Traditional Practice

Real Time Monitoring (ACMS/AHM)+

Post Flight Analysis (FDM/FOQA)

Real Time Monitoring: ACMS & AHM

MCD FSD

Post Flight Analysis

A/C Performance Analysis

Daily Trend Analysis

304050

708090

DFDR

Flight Data Animation (QAR)

Hazard Identification &

Risk Management

FDM/ Aerobytes

WGBBS

Flight Data

FDM DailyReport

AlertEvent

DetectEvent

Event ReviewEvent Review Meeting

Statistics/Data base

FDM/FOQA

Training Improvement & Procedure Modification

Quarterly ReportAnnual Report

Trend Analysis Report

9

Before the flight!

Beside the real time monitoring & post flight analysis,what miss on Safety Risk Assessment of Flight Operation ?

10

Comprehensive Safety Risk Assessment of the Flight Operation

During the flightBefore the flight After the flight

FOQA/FDMACMS/AHMFORAS

11

FORASFlight Operations Risk Assessment System

• FORAS is a system which designed to capture risk attributes on the areas of crew, aircraft functionality and sector threats, and allow risk mitigation efforts could be deployed before the flight.

Flight Operation Risk• Newly check out Captain and F/O flying together• Fatigued crew with MRT• Non precision approach or ILS out of service• Strong cross wind• Low visibility with rain or snow• Thrust Reverser INOP• RWY is not grooved with percipitation• The complexity of approach procedure & runway configuration• Operating crew never operating into this airport before

…

Sponsored by :NASA

Prototype Developedby : Dr. Michael Hadjimichel

FORAS DevelopmentEVA AIR & Dr. Michael Hadjimichel

FORAS concept generated by ICARUS Committee Think Tank of FSF

Project Background

14

System Introduction• FORAS is a methodology for generating a risk model, which produces

a relative, quantitative measurement of a specific risk exposure in flight operations.– Gather the weather information, crew experience, navigation aids, and

aircraft’s status etc.

• A decision support tool to measure and reduce risk exposure.– A decision aids for risk awareness, not a GO or NO GO decision tool.

• Proactive, predictive approach to aviation safety.– Analyze operational risks and take the actions of relevant risk mitigation

to ensure a safe operation.

CRTS

FIS

SMIS

NOTAM

WeatherSystem

2. System Architecture

CRTS: Crew Rostering and Tracking SystemFIS: Flight Information SystemSMIS: Safety Management Information System

EVADatabase

FORAS Fuzzyinference engine

FORAS CPIengine

FORAS Models

FORAS• Flight Operations Risk Assessment System

DRV : Departure Risk ValueALRV : Approach & Landing Risk ValueDRV & ALRV will be calculated automatically 2.5 hrs before the flight.

17

Model structure

Rule Tables (Dep133;Arr166)

Raw Data (D-Value: Dep116;Arr141)

Terminal value (T-value:Dep117;Arr146)

• Crew Variable (Dep77;Arr85)

• Sector Variable (Dep6;Arr11)

• Aircraft Variable (Dep1;Arr1)

DRV / ALRV

T value definitionCode DescriptionP001_1 PILOT1 RANKP002_1 PILOT1_GRADEP003_1 PILOT1_NATIONALITYP004_1 PILOT1_LASTTIME_AT_AIRPORTP005_1 PILOT1_SECTORS_AT_RANKP005_2 PILOT2_SECTORS_AT_RANKP006_1 PILOT1_LIFE_TIME_HOURS

Code DescriptionTA01 Approach and Landing-related MEL ItemsTC01 Experience pairingTC02 Rank compositionTC03 English proficiencyTC04 Multi-nationalitiesTC05_C Airport recencyTC06_C Special airport/runwayTC07_C Numbers of previous visits TC08_C EVA type hoursTC09_C Flying recency as PF

18

Crew Functionality

IntercrewCommunication

Pilot Experience Pilot Fatigue

TransientFatigue

CumulativeFatigue

A/C FlyingExperience

AirportFamiliarity

Airportrecency

Specialairport/runway

Numbers of previous visits

ExperiencePairing

RankComposition

Comm.Proficiency

19

A/C FlyingExperience

TotalHours Sectors

Flyingrecency

as PF

EVA typehours

Pre-EVAhours EVA hours Type

landingLandingat rank

EVAlanding

20

TransientFatigue

Pre-workload Pre-flight Rest In-flight fatigue

In-flightRest

Previous sectorsflown

on this duty period

Duty hourssince beginning

Pre-flightcircadian night

Pre-flightrest hours

Extra crewavailability

Crew bunkavailability

Duty hoursof

this flight

In-flightrest hours

21

Cumulative Fatigue

Work Amount Rest

Pre-7 daysworkload

Previous FlyingSchedulestability Rest recency Rest amount

Pre-30 daysworkload

Pre-90 daysworkload

22

AircraftFunctionality

DRV & ALRV-related MEL

Fleet ItemsA330 : 64B747 : 64B777 : 104MD11 : 79

B777-300ERDEP

22-11-09B Takeoff/Go-Around (TO/GA) Switches

32-42-01A Normal Antiskid Valve32-30-01 Landing Gear Actuation System

ARR22-11-02B Autopilot Backdrive Actuator System

22-11-06B Mode Control Panel Switches-A/P Engage Switches

22-31-01 Autothrottle System31-51-05A WES Autopilot Disconnect Warning Function

23

SectorThreat

Airport Weather

WeatherComplexity

VisualCondition

VisibilityMargin

CeilingMargin

AmbientLight

CrosswindComponents

PrecipitationConvectiveWx Issues

24

Airport

ATCFunctionality

ATCEnglish proficiency

ApproachComplexity Congestion

ATCcontrol quality

Runwaycomplexity

Airportbusy hour

A/P Familiarity

25

ApproachComplexity

Specialairport/runway

FlyingComplexity

RunwayComplexity

Precisionapproach

Airportterrain/obstacle

Approachgo-around

rate

Sunlighteffective issues

Groovedrunway

26

Conclusion

• The core elements of Safety Management System is hazard identification & risk management. FORAS is playing a vital & predictive role on Safety Risk Management.

Why we need FORAS?

FORAS Promotion Program• Promote FORAS via a non commercial avenue• Airlines who are interesting to acquire FORAS shall

donate certain amount of fund into FORAS Fund according to its fleet size.

• Set up a FORAS Fund and manage it via a committee of trustees

• The Fund will be utilized to set up FORAS Scholarship, FORAS Award and the future development of FORAS, and other aviation risk management initiatives.

FORAS Promotion Program will be available on Q4 2013.

Internet

Airline A

Airline B

Airline C

Frontend Server

Backend WorkstationXML

Frontend Server

Frontend Server

DB

InferenceModels

InferenceEngine

DB

DB

29

Thank you!Q&A