BC Economic Forecast BC Economic Forecast 2013-17013-17_feb13
SABÉR Economic Forecast for San Antonio March 2014
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Transcript of SABÉR Economic Forecast for San Antonio March 2014
Presented by: Steve Nivin, Ph.D. Please contact Steve Nivin with any questions or comments at [email protected] or 210-517-3609.
SAN ANTONIO ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: 2014
Presented on: March 28, 2014
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Business cycle index indicates growth in San Antonio
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350.0 Ja
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Bus
ines
s Cyc
le In
dex:
San
Ant
onio
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ason
ally
Adj
uste
d
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Unemployment rate in San Antonio second lowest among major metropolitan economies in Texas
Region Unemployment Rate (January 2014)
San Antonio 5.3% Austin 4.6% Dallas 5.6% Ft. Worth 5.5% Houston 5.5% Texas 5.7% U.S. 6.7%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
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Unemployment rate in San Antonio declined in January for the 4th consecutive month
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Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted)
San Antonio Austin Dallas Ft. Worth Houston Texas U.S.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
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Unemployment rate decreased to 5.3% in January…right at average since 1990
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2013
Unemployment Rate in San Antonio (Seasonally Adjusted)
Avg. since Jan. 1990 = 5.3%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
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Broad-based employment growth (Jan. 2013 – Jan. 2014)
Region Employment Growth
Employment Increase Employment Decrease
San Antonio 2.27% MLC, Wholesale, Retail, TWU, Information, Financial, Prof. Services, Educ./Health, Hospitality, Other Services, Govt.
Mfg.
Austin 3.57% MLC, Mfg., Wholesale, Retail, TWU, Information, Financial, Prof. Services, Educ/Health, Hospitality, Other Services,
Government
Dallas 1.95% MLC, , Mfg., Wholesale, Retail, TWU, Information, Financial, Prof. Services, Educ./Health, Hospitality, Other Services,
Government
Financial
Ft. Worth 1.92% MLC, Mfg., Wholesale, Retail, TWU, Prof. Services, Educ/Health, Hospitality, Other Services, Government
Information, Financial
Houston 2.03% MLC, Mfg., Wholesale, Retail, TWU, Information, Prof. Services, Educ/Health, Hospitality, Other Services, Govt.
Financial
Texas 2.68% MLC, Mfg., Wholesale, Retail, TWU, Information, Financial, Prof. Services, Educ/Health, Hospitality, Other Services, Govt.
U.S. 1.67%
Source: TWC; BLS; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Change calculations by Steve Nivin, Ph.D. MLC=Mining, Logging, and Construction; TWU=Transportation, Warehousing, Utilities
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Growth trend since end of recession similar to growth pre-recession
Source: BLS; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Calculations by Steve Nivin, Ph.D.
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San Antonio employment grew 2.27% in January
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
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Cha
nge
from
Sam
e M
onth
Pre
viou
s Ye
ar
San Antonio Austin Dallas Ft. Worth Houston Texas U.S.
San Antonio average annual employment growth rate = 2.27%
Source: BLS; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Calculations by Steve Nivin, Ph.D.
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Employment growth has come back to its long-term (since 1991) trend
-3.00% -2.00% -1.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00%
1991
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Employment Growth in San Antonio (Change from Same Month Previous Year)
Source: BLS; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Calculations by Steve Nivin, Ph.D.
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San Antonio average annual employment growth rate = 2.27%
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Most sectors either continued to see growth during recession or have returned to their pre-recession employment levels plus
Source: BLS; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Calculations by Steve Nivin, Ph.D.
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Construction & mining and manufacturing should continue to grow this year and at least get closer to their pre-recession levels of employment…information sector still facing structural headwinds
Source: BLS; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Calculations by Steve Nivin, Ph.D.
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Should continue to see growth in these sectors…with higher levels of uncertainty around health and government
Source: BLS; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Calculations by Steve Nivin, Ph.D.
Single family housing market is very strong in San Antonio and across Texas.
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an
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Mon
ths-
in-I
nven
tory
: Sin
gle
Fam
ily H
omes
San Antonio Austin Dallas Ft. Worth Houston Texas
Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center Months in inventory measures how many months will take to sell the current inventory, based on the average number of sales per month in the previous year.
Robust increases in home prices are indicative of a tight market.
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-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
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Rea
l Med
ian
SF H
ome
Pric
e (4
MM
A, Y
/Y %
Cha
nge)
San Antonio Austin Dallas Ft. Worth Houston Texas
Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center; Calculations by Steve Nivin, Ph.D.
2013 San Antonio Economic Forecast
¨ 2013 Forecast = Employment growth of 2.25-2.75%
¤ Risks: Sequestration, E.U., China ¨ Midyear Update: At best will end up at lower end of
forecast. Most likely will see growth between 1.0-2.0%. ¤ Biggest risk is sequestration. International risks (e.g.,
E.U. and China) worth watching closely. ¨ Employment growth in 2013 was 2.3% (20,400 jobs)
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2014 San Antonio Economic Forecast
¨ Accelerating growth in global, U.S., and Texas economies
¨ Growth in San Antonio should also accelerate in 2014 ¤ Many sectors should see accelerated growth (e.g.,
construction, manufacturing, professional services, hospitality)
¤ Healthcare and financial services continue with adjustment to Obamacare and financial reform
¨ 2014 Forecast ¤ Employment growth of 2.5-3.0% (22,800-27,500 jobs)
¤ Unemployment rate will decline to 4.8-5.0%
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Thank you!!!
Questions?
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