S. Korea’s Recent Renewable Energy Status

29
4 Sept. 2017

Transcript of S. Korea’s Recent Renewable Energy Status

Page 1: S. Korea’s Recent Renewable Energy Status

4 Sept. 2017

Page 2: S. Korea’s Recent Renewable Energy Status

Table of Contents

I. Introduction

II. 2007 Renewable Status

III. 2014 Renewable Status

IV. Recent World Renewable Energy Status

V. What happened to S. Korea’s Renewable energy?

VI. Foreseeable renewable energy policy change

VII. Conclusion

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I. Introduction

During last 9 years from 2008 to 2016, S. Korea has built more nuclear power plant than any other country in

the world next to China. This proved that Green Growth policy of Lee Myung-Park, one of the former

president of S. Korea, is nothing but a political rhetoric.

After Fukushima nuclear power plant disaster in 2011, the nuclear power plant is the least popular power

source but not in S. Korea even with Green Growth policy. Not only nuclear but also coal fired power plants

have been built more during the time and caused a lot of environmental issues such as serious air pollution in

S. Korea.

In order to comprehend what happened to renewable energy of S. Korea, we have to understand how Green

Growth policy has screwed up and what happened to renewable energy development in S. Korea. We

reviewed public data on International electricity generation statistics and compared the data between 2007

and 2014. The result is quite surprising. The data gives us the clear snapshot of world wide energy source for

electricity generation. The data also gives us which renewable energy source is popular and how much

renewable energy source contributes to the electrical power generation of each country.

The source of the data used here is mostly from US Energy Information Administration (https://www.eia.gov)

that has the world energy data and their service is still in beta.

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II. 2007 Renewable Status - Renewable/Electricity World Top 20

Rank Country 2007(R/E) Rank Country 2007(R/E)

1 Iceland 30.23% 11 Nicaragua 14.06%

2 Denmark 29.49% 12 Finland 13.11%

3 El Salvador 26.33% 13 Germany 12.05%

4 Kenya 20.19% 14 Papua New Guinea 12.02%

5 Guatemala 18.86% 15 New Zealand 11.97%

6 Philippines 17.69% 16 Spain 11.19%

7 Mauritius 17.55% 17 Austria 11.02%

8 Costa Rica 16.61% 18 Sudan 9.45%

9 Belize 15.86% 19 Guadeloupe 9.15%

10 Portugal 14.34% 20 Netherlands 9.00%

78 Turkey 0.44% 87 Korea, South 0.27%

The Renewable/Electricity percentage ratio is about how much renewable energy source is contributed to

electricity generation of a country. The higher the better.

Source:https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/data/browser/#/?pa=00000000000000000000000000000fvu&c=ruvvvvvfvtvnvv1urvvvvfvvvvvvfvvvo

u20evvvvvvvvvnvvuvs&ct=0&tl_id=2-A&vs=INTL.2-12-AFG-BKWH.A&cy=2014&vo=0&v=H&start=2005&end=2015

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II. 2007 Renewable Status - 2007 Solar/Electricity World Top 20

Rank Country 2007(S/E) Rank Country 2007(S/E)

1 Luxembourg 0.78% 11 Kenya 0.15%

2 Eritrea 0.74% 12 Cambodia 0.14%

3 Germany 0.51% 13 Rwanda 0.13%

4 Nepal 0.32% 14 Senegal 0.08%

5 Cook Islands 0.32% 15 Belize 0.08%

6 Reunion 0.20% 16 Bangladesh 0.07%

7 Japan 0.19% 17 Portugal 0.05%

8 Spain 0.18% 18 Australia 0.05%

9 Samoa 0.18% 19 Cyprus 0.04%

10 Sri Lanka 0.17% 20 Switzerland 0.04%

35 Korea, South 0.02% ?? Turkey 0.00%

The Solar/Electricity percentage ratio is about how much solar energy source contributes to electricity

generation of a country. Solar energy does not consist that much of power generation source in 2007.

Source:https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/data/browser/#/?pa=0000000000000000000000000000008&c=ruvvvvvfvtvvvv1vvvvvvfvvvvv

vfvvvsu20evvvvvvvvvvvvuvg&ct=0&tl_id=2-A&vs=INTL.34-12-AFG-BKWH.A&cy=2014&vo=0&v=H&start=2005&end=2014&vid=6

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II. 2007 Renewable Status - 2007 Wind/Electricity World Top 20

Rank Country 2007(W/E) Rank Country 2007(W/E)

1 Denmark 19.12% 11 Cape Verde 2.77%

2 Spain 9.76% 12 Netherlands Antilles 2.48%

3 Portugal 8.93% 13 Luxembourg 2.37%

4 Ireland 7.63% 14 Costa Rica 2.26%

5 Germany 6.69% 15 New Caledonia 2.18%

6 Faroe Islands 6.07% 16 New Zealand 2.11%

7 Netherlands 3.43% 17 Falkland Islands 1.84%

8 Austria 3.33% 18 Morocco 1.56%

9 Greece 3.06% 19 India 1.55%

10 Guadeloupe 3.05% 20 United Kingdom 1.44%

42 Turkey 0.22% 51 Korea, South 0.10%

The Wind/Electricity percentage ratio is about how much wind power source contributes to electricity generation

of a country. Wind power energy consist the biggest renewable energy source in some country.

Source:https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/data/browser/index.cfm#/?pa=00000000000000000000000000000004&c=ruvvvvvfvtvvvv1vvvvv

vfvvvvvvfvvvsu20evvvvvvvvvvvvuvg&ct=0&ug=8&tl_id=2-A&vs=INTL.116-12-AFG-BKWH.A&cy=2014&vo=0&v=H&start=2005&end=2015

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III. 2014 Renewable Status - 2014 Renewable/Electricity World Top 20

Rank Country 2014(R/E) Rank Country 2014(R/E)

1 Denmark 59.58% 11 Germany 25.44%

2 Kenya 46.60% 12 Luxembourg 25.02%

3 Nicaragua 46.35% 13 Costa Rica 24.36%

4 Lithuania 37.27% 14 Italy 24.19%

5 Falkland Islands 33.33% 15 Guatemala 23.96%

6 El Salvador 32.98% 16 New Zealand 23.68%

7 Portugal 32.25% 17 Ireland 23.31%

8 Iceland 29.16% 18 Finland 20.18%

9 Cape Verde 28.57% 19 United Kingdom 19.58%

10 Spain 27.16% 20 Belgium 19.47%

53 Turkey 5.05% 82 Korea, South 1.24%

The Renewable/Electricity percentage ratio has been significantly increased in most European country and

contributes almost half of power source to some country. Korea is lagging behind other OECD member states.

Source:https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/data/browser/index.cfm#/?pa=00000000000000000000000000000004&c=ruvvvvvfvtvvvv1vvvvvvfvv

vvvvfvvvsu20evvvvvvvvvvvvuvg&ct=0&ug=8&tl_id=2-A&vs=INTL.116-12-AFG-BKWH.A&cy=2014&vo=0&v=H&start=2005&end=2015

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III. 2014 Renewable Status - 2014 Solar/Electricity World Top 20

Rank Country 2014(S/E) Rank Country 2014(S/E)

1 Italy 8.36% 11 Romania 2.60%

2 Greece 7.90% 12 Japan 2.50%

3 Luxembourg 6.87% 13 Slovakia 2.34%

4 Germany 6.10% 14 Lithuania 2.26%

5 Spain 5.17% 15 Australia 2.06%

6 Belgium 4.26% 16 Cyprus 1.95%

7 Malta 3.31% 17 Denmark 1.91%

8 Mauritania 2.95% 18 Dominican Republic 1.67%

9 Bulgaria 2.82% 19 Slovenia 1.56%

10 Czech Republic 2.64% 20 Israel 1.47%

34 Korea, South 0.50% 74 Turkey 0.01%

Solar energy contributes less than 10% of power generation source and has not been increased that much from

2007 compared to wind power.

Source:https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/data/browser/index.cfm#/?pa=00000000000000000000000000000004&c=ruvvvvvfvtvvvv1vvvvv

vfvvvvvvfvvvsu20evvvvvvvvvvvvuvg&ct=0&ug=8&tl_id=2-A&vs=INTL.116-12-AFG-BKWH.A&cy=2014&vo=0&v=H&start=2005&end=2015

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III. 2014 Renewable Status - 2014 Wind/Electricity World Top 20

Rank Country 2014(W/E) Rank Country 2014(W/E)

1 Denmark 41.68% 11 United Kingdom 10.10%

2 Falkland Islands 33.33% 12 Romania 9.94%

3 Cape Verde 28.57% 13 Germany 9.70%

4 Portugal 24.05% 14 Greece 7.69%

5 Ireland 20.87% 15 Sweden 7.48%

6 Lithuania 20.69% 16 Costa Rica 7.29%

7 Nicaragua 19.68% 17 Morocco 7.09%

8 Spain 19.67% 18 Belgium 6.82%

9 Aruba 17.68% 19 Austria 6.54%

10 Faroe Islands 11.78% 20 Netherlands 5.92%

34 Turkey 3.56% 65 Korea, South 0.22%

Wind power became biggest renewable energy source and the biggest power generation contributor in some

country.

Source:https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/data/browser/#/?pa=0000000000000000000000000000001&c=ruvvvvvfvtvnvv1urvvvvfvvvvvvf

vvvou20evvvvvvvvvnvvuvs&ct=0&ug=8&tl_id=2-A&vs=INTL.37-12-AFG-BKWH.A&cy=2014&vo=0&v=H&start=2005&end=2015&showdm=y

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VI. Recent World Renewable Energy Status

IEA Statistics © OECD/IEA 2014

Source:

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12.0

1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Electric power consumption (kWh per capita)

France Germany United Kingdom Spain Korea, Rep. Japan China World

S. Korea’s electricity consumption has increased exponentially until recently and is a rare case in the world.

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1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

World Electricity Generation By Non Fossile Fuel Source

Nuclear Hydro Geobiomass Wind Solar

778.7

2,616.5

Adapted from BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2017

In 2016 renewable energy power generation surpasses nuclear power generation for the first time.

Source: http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/excel/energy-economics/statistical-review-2017/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2017-underpinning-data.xlsxTWh* Terawatt-hour

959.5

2,762.8

VI. Recent World Renewable Energy Status

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Non hydropower renewable energy is gaining momentum and will surpass hydropower about 2040.

VI. Recent World Renewable Energy Status

Source: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/electricity.php

The renewable share of world electricity generation grows from 22% in 2012 to 29% in 2040. Generation from nonhydropowerrenewables is the predominant source of the increase, rising by an average of 5.7%/year and outpacing increases in natural gas (2.7%/year), nuclear (2.4%/year), and coal (0.8%/year).

Solar is the world’s fastest-growing form of renewable energy, with net solar generation increasing by an average of 8.3%/year. Of the 5.9 trillion kWh of new renewable generation added over the projection period, hydroelectric and wind each account for 1.9 trillion kWh (33%), solar energy for 859 billion kWh (15%), and other renewables (mostly biomass and waste) for 856 billion kWh (14%).

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V. What happened to S. Korea’s renewable energy?

In order to find out what happened to S. Korea’s renewable we have to get familiarized to the concept and detail of Green

Growth policy defined by former president of S. Korea, Lee Myungbark. The definition of Green growth is well described at

Wikipedia as follow.

“Green growth is a term to describe a path of economic growth that uses natural resources in a sustainable manner.”

The next thing we need to look into is how S. Korean economy responded with Green Growth. Here’s what happened.

- S. Korea’s economic growth weakened due to poor export market.

- Aging population of S. Korea is expected to dampen domestic economic growth and consumer demand.

- S. Korea’s heavy industry such as steel, shipbuilding and automobile looses competitiveness due to global economic

downturn.

- Heavy reliance on nuclear and fossil fuel energy begins to rebalance due to diminishing energy demand.

To briefly summarize Green Growth policy did not accomplish economic growth nor make use of natural resources in a

sustainable manner in S. Korea.

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V. What happened to S. Korea’s renewable energy?

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Electricity production from renewable sources, excluding hydroelectric (BKWh)

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IEA Statistics © OECD/IEA 2014

Renewable energy is gaining momentum in the country where nuclear energy is declining.

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V. What happened to S. Korea’s renewable energy?

Coal fired power plant is still growing in S. Korea causing a lot of issues but is declining even in China.

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Electricity production from coal sources(% of Total)

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V. What happened to S. Korea’s renewable energy?

S. Korea’s dependency on nuclear has been successfully transformed but nuclear came back recently.

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Electricity production from nuclear sources(% of Total)

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What is discovered from recent international

renewable energy data is that S. Korea places at

82nd rank in 2014.

Increased use of nuclear and fossil fuel has

brought serious environmental problem like air

pollution and nuclear safety issue.

Even with Fukushima nuclear disaster S. Korea is

reluctant to reduce nuclear dependency on

electrical power generation.

S. Korea’s dependency on fossil fuel and nuclear

has increased despite Green Grow policy,

therefore we can conclude Green growth is just a

meaningless political rhetoric.

V. What happened to S. Korea’s renewable?

Page 18: S. Korea’s Recent Renewable Energy Status

Back in 2011 S. Korea’s national electricity

company, KEPCO tried to increase the use of

renewable energy source for their electrical

power generation by benchmarking Spain that

has similar power capacity to S. Korea.

KEPCO planned wind power as a primary

renewable energy to catch up with Spain but

failed miserably as wind power is only 0.22%

of S. Korea’s electricity source while Spain’s

wind power is over 15% in 2014

V. What happened to S. Korea’s renewable?

2020 S. Korea electricity power generation estimation by source

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Nuclear 21%

Hydroelectricity15%

Wind19%

Solar5%

Biomass and Waste

2%

Fossil Fuels38%

S. Korea tried to benchmark renewable

energy development of Spain that has

almost same electrical power capacity to S.

Korea from 2011 but it has not been

successful so far.

S. Korea’s electricity power generation

surpasses Spain in 2014 but S. Korea’s

renewable energy is about 1.24% while

Spain is about 27.16% at the same year.

Spain’s biggest renewable energy source is

wind power whereas S. Korea’s is solar in

2014 but only 0.5% of energy source.

2014 Spain electricity generation by source

V. What happened to S. Korea’s renewable?

Page 20: S. Korea’s Recent Renewable Energy Status

Tide and Wave

S. Korea’s renewable energy source for electricity

generation has grown from 2007, 0.27%(87th in the

world) to 2014, 1.24%(82th in the world) while Spain

is 11.18% (16th in the world) and 27.16% (10th in the

world) respectively.

S. Korea’s renewable energy is not only grown poorly

but also could not catch up the normal pace of

renewable growth.

No country in the world has 1 figure renewable

energy except those countries under dictatorship nor

at civil war.

S. Korea’s heavy dependency on fossil fuel and

nuclear has caused a lot of environmental issues and

their air quality became one of the worst in the world

next to China’s.

2014 S. Korea Electricity Generation by Source

V. What happened to S. Korea’s renewable?

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VI. Foreseeable renewable energy policy change

S. Korea’s renewable energy policy will be revamped

to catch up with OECD average within short period of

time.

In order to achieve this S. Korea government will

1. Change policy on new nuclear power plant

construction.

2. Benchmark renewable energy of OECD average.

3. Start building renewable power plant for easy to

install source first.

4. Educate S. Korean public on renewable energy to

increase its acceptance.

5. Find way to counterbalance against those who

oppose renewable energy.

2014 OECD Electricity Generation by Source

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1. Change policy on new nuclear power plant construction

Planned construction of 7 new nuclear power plant will be

stopped shortly by newly elected government as S. Korea’s

dependency on nuclear and fossil fuel is already too much for

electricity generation compared to other industrialized countries

or OECD members.

Current S. Korea’s renewable energy use is as poor as that of

underdeveloped country due to the excessive use of fossil fuel

and nuclear and former governments energy policy.

The cost of nuclear power plant has been much underestimated

not considering the hidden cost related to disposal of spent

nuclear fuel, decommissioning and other cost such as nuclear

safety cost to prevent possible disaster.

To remedy this issue current plan on new nuclear power plant

construction will be stopped shortely by new government.

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2. Benchmark renewable energy of OECD average

2014 EU15 Electricity Generation by Source S. Korea’s lateness in renewable energy use will

be addressed immediately to slow down climate

change and air pollution in S. Korea.

OECD average of renewable energy will be

more reasonable benchmark target than more

advanced EU15 renewable energy use.

International organization and community will

criticize S. Korea’s slow renewable energy

adoption and slow response to climate change.

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3. Start building renewable power plant easier to install first

In order to catch up OECD average on renewable energy

adoption within short period of time S. Korea will install

renewable power plant as soon as possible.

To achieve this rapid renewable energy adoption the

installation of solar (photovoltaic) power plant and on-shore

wind power farm is believed to be primary renewable energy

source for short term.

In order to increase public acceptance on renewable energy

various government incentive will be offered to renewable

energy sector.

Progress of solar (photovoltaic) and wind power technology

will be also addressed to S. Korean public to increase

renewable energy acceptance.

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4. Educate S. Korea public

Technical development of solar and wind

power during last 10 years will to be informed

to S. Korea public.

Government will inform S. Korean public on

poor status of renewable energy growth.

Nuclear friendly media and public opinion of

S. Korea will be changed with government’s

public relation.

International experts to advocate

renewable energy will be invited to S. Korean

public.

Fabricated negative image of renewable

energy will be dealt with S. Korean

government and stakeholders of renewable

energy sector.

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5. Short term Counterbalance against renewable opposition

Structured resistance in S. Korea against renewable exits and counterbalance

against it also required. The epic center of structured resistance against

renewable energy is the misuse of RPS (Renewable Portfolio Standard) and RPS

will be returned to Renewable Energy Target (RET)Scheme.

RPS (Renewable Portfolio Standard) seems to be the prime cause of renewable

energy decline as the use of renewable energy drastically slowed after its

adoption. (S. Korea is currently 82nd rank for renewable energy use for electricity

generation and 10th for electricity generation)

Under RPS (Renewable Portfolio Standard) electricity companies such as

KEPCO and their sister power generation companies is to produce a specified

fraction of their electricity from renewable energy sources however they

minimized the use of renewable energy source to build more nuclear power plant.

California state government forced car makers to produce a specified fraction of

their cars zero emission however it did not improve the air quality just like RPS to

renewable energy.

Page 27: S. Korea’s Recent Renewable Energy Status

6. Long term counterbalance against renewable opposition

Drastic measure on renewable energy will be employed to counterbalance against

fierce renewable opposition.

Government will declare national agenda on improving renewable energy to jumpstart

- Set specific year on year numbered target on renewable energy improvement

- Give incentive on renewable energy to accelerate improvement.

Government may divide or spin off KEPCO to counterbalance renewable opposition.

- Bring competition on power transportation and distribution to revamp single national

grid.

- Escalate single national grid issue as a national security issue.

- 2nd or 3rd KEPCO will be more rely on renewable energy power generation and will

open the possibility to export electricity to Japan and China.

Page 28: S. Korea’s Recent Renewable Energy Status

VI. Conclusion

Government’s short term solution to improve renewable energy use is to stop RPS immediately.

- Increase renewable energy acceptance by educating general public

- Set renewable energy as the national agenda with numbered year on year target.

- Remove KEPCO from any renewable energy project because KEPCO is the prime obstacle to renewable

energy

Government’s long term solution to renewable energy is to spin off KEPCO into 2 or 3 different entities

- Single national grid system with single electricity transportation and distribution company is national

security issue

- 2nd or 3rd electricity company with additional grid systems will open the possibility to export electricity to

China and Japan with multiple grid backup.

Page 29: S. Korea’s Recent Renewable Energy Status

Thank You!

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