S imulating SARS … Small-World Epidemiological Modeling and Public Health Policy Assessments...
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Transcript of S imulating SARS … Small-World Epidemiological Modeling and Public Health Policy Assessments...
SSimulatingimulating SARS …SARS …Small-World Epidemiological Modeling andSmall-World Epidemiological Modeling and
Public Health Policy AssessmentsPublic Health Policy Assessments
Ji-Lung Hsieh (Ji-Lung Hsieh ( 謝吉隆謝吉隆 ))Department of Computer Science, National Chiao Tung UniversityDepartment of Computer Science, National Chiao Tung University
Chung-Yuan Huang (Chung-Yuan Huang ( 黃崇源黃崇源 ))Department of Computer Science and Information Engineering, Chang Gung UniversityDepartment of Computer Science and Information Engineering, Chang Gung University
Chuen-Tsai Sun (Chuen-Tsai Sun ( 孫春在孫春在 ))Department of Computer Science, National Chiao Tung UniversityDepartment of Computer Science, National Chiao Tung University
Yi-Ming Arthur Chen (Yi-Ming Arthur Chen ( 陳宜民陳宜民 ))Institute of Public Health, National Yang-Ming UniversityInstitute of Public Health, National Yang-Ming University
2/25
When 2002-2003 SARS outbreak beganWhen 2002-2003 SARS outbreak began
Confirm viral structure.Confirm viral structure.
Develop vaccines and antidotes.Develop vaccines and antidotes.
Establish faster inspection methodsEstablish faster inspection methods..
Revise public health policies and prevention Revise public health policies and prevention strategies.strategies.
Taking Body Temperature Mask Wearing for General Public
3/25
Public Health PoliciesPublic Health Policies
Balancing the social costs and resource expenditures required Balancing the social costs and resource expenditures required for controlling epidemic outbreaksfor controlling epidemic outbreaks
Mask Policy—General Public vs. Healthcare WorkersTaking Body TemperatureA/B Class Home QuarantinesReducing Public Contact, Controlling Hospital AccessVaccines, Antidotes, …
Improper implementation & inappropriate timing Improper implementation & inappropriate timing Secondary impacts as disease concealmentSocial discrimination against SARS patients and health care workersPanic buying of masks (ex. N95 mask).
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A Suitable Epidemic Simulation PlatformA Suitable Epidemic Simulation Platform
Simulating epidemic transmission dynamics and Simulating epidemic transmission dynamics and associated associated public health policiespublic health policies;;Assisting with understanding the Assisting with understanding the propertiesproperties and and efficaciesefficacies of various public health policies; of various public health policies;Constructing an Constructing an effectiveeffective, , low-costlow-cost, and , and executableexecutable suite of epidemic prevention strategies;suite of epidemic prevention strategies;Reducing the Reducing the difficultiesdifficulties and and costscosts associated with associated with learning epidemiological issues.learning epidemiological issues.
5/25
Epidemic SimulationsEpidemic Simulations
Factors that influence the epidemic transmission dynamicsFactors that influence the epidemic transmission dynamicsEpidemiological Progress
• Incubation, Infectious, Recovered, and Immune Days, …
Individual Diversity• Super-spreader, Inoculator, Immune, Weak Individual…
Social Networks• Interpersonal Relationships and Simple Daily Contact• High Local Clustering and Small-World Phenomena
Mobile Individual Problems• Short- and Long-Distance Movement• Daily visits to fixed and/or multiple locations
Public Health Policies and Strategies
Factors of Individual Diversity
EpidemiologicalFactors
Factors of Social Networks
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Cellular Automata with Social Mirror Identity ModelCellular Automata with Social Mirror Identity Model
Epidemic Disease
Agent Population
Mirror Identity Concept
Social Contact Network
7/25
Simulation FrameworkSimulation Framework
EpidemicDisease
Data fromWHO, CDC,
and individualnational health
authorities
Time points ofimported cases and
public health policies
Interaction rules;population, network, and
epidemic parameters
CASMIM
Input
Initialize
Output
8/25
CASMIM Simulation SystemCASMIM Simulation System
CASMIM
9/25
Statistical Analyses for Simulating SARSStatistical Analyses for Simulating SARS
Reliability TestReliability TestChi-square test
Validity TestValidity TestCorrelation coefficient (CC) [-1, 1]Coefficient of efficiency (CE) [0, 1]Mean square error (MSE) [0, ]Mean absolute error (MAE) [0, ]
1
2 2
1 1
( ) ( ) [-1,1]
( ) ( )
n
t tt
n n
t tt t
X X Y YCC
X X Y Y
2
1
2
1
( )1 [0,1]
( )
n
t ttn
tt
X YCE
X X
2
1
1( ) [0, ]
n
t tt
MSE Y Xn
1
1( ) [0, ]
n
t tt
MAE Y Xn
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Singapore SARS OutbreakSingapore SARS Outbreak
4/28 taking body temperature at
transportation gates
3/24 stop visits to hospital & home
quarantine
3/27 stop class of junior and
elementary school
3/30 restriction on air passenger
11/25
Taipei SARS OutbreakTaipei SARS Outbreak
6/1 taking body temperature
3/26 wearing mask by healthcare workers
3/28 home quarantine
3/30 wearing mask by general public
4/10 taking passenger temperature at airport
12/25
Toronto SARS outbreakToronto SARS outbreak
3/26 Stop visits to hospital &
Home quarantine
13/25
Taking Body TemperatureTaking Body Temperature
14/25
Wearing Masks for General PublicWearing Masks for General Public
15/25
Wearing Masks for Health WorkersWearing Masks for Health Workers
16/25
Assessing Public Health SuitesAssessing Public Health Suites
3/24 Executing public health suites
Conclusions (cont.)Conclusions (cont.)
A novel and complete small-world epidemic modelA novel and complete small-world epidemic modelSimulating epidemic transmission dynamics and associated public health policies;Assisting with understanding the properties and efficacies of various public health policies;Constructing an effective, low-cost, and executable suite of epidemic prevention strategies.Reducing the difficulties and costs associated with learning epidemiological concepts.