S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S D E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E, F I S...

S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R SD E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E , F I S H E R I E S A N D F O R E S T R Y

S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S

B u r e a u o fR u r a l S c i e n c e s

James Walcott


Agroclimatic Characterization and Zoning Methods for Operational Applications:

John Sims

(operations)

Greg Laughlin James Walcott

(climate) (agriculture)

Tim Brinkley

(methods)

Presented to WMO Workshop on Climate Analysis and Mapping for Agriculture. Bologna, 14-17 June 2005.

Tools that make climate simple for agricultural decision makers


Distribution of grain cropping in Australia


Outline

• Operational uses• Rainfall reliability wizard: grain adaptation• Integrated toolset: productivity• Growest: pasture forecasts• National Monitoring system: drought policy• Conclusions/Future extensions


Operational Uses

• Agricultural adaptation – Crop, livestock decisions

• Climate risks– Fire risk, storm warning, frost warning

• Agricultural risks– Pest & disease outbreaks, weed incursions, plague locust

• Policy delivery– Natural resource management, conservation, rural policy,

drought relief, quarantine


Rainfall Reliability Wizard

Laughlin et al (2003) Environmental Modelling and Software 18: 49-57

Bureau of Meteorologyrainfall grids: 100+ yrs 25 km sq Analysis:

means percentiles between seasons within seasons event analysis

Display and access: www.brs.gov.au/rainfall


Probability of 50% seasonal mean

www.brs.gov.au/rainfall


Reliability of achieving 25 mm/month for June – September


Distribution of available water capacity in soil profile across grain cropping zone


Integrated Toolset

• ANU Splin (Hutchinson 1990)• Interpolations using thin-plate splines• Independent factors such as altitude• Commercial in confidence


Livestock density in 2001


Livestock densityLow Medium High

LowMedium

High

Index of primary productivity

Integrated Toolset: relating primary productivity to livestock density


Soil moisture extraction

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

(Current rain + storage)/Max water storage

Ea/

ET

Clay loam

Sandy Loam

Clay

THERMAL RESPONSE

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Mean daily temperature (0C)

Th

erm

al I

nd

ex

Microtherm Mesotherm C3 megatherm C4 Megatherm

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

Total solar radiation

Lig

ht

ind

ex

Radiation Temperature

Moisture

•Fitzpatrick and Nix (1970) – GrowEst•Nix (1981)•Hutchinson, Nix and McMahon (1992)•Brinkley et al (2005)

GrowEst: simple estimates of plant growth

Major climate drivers in plant growth

GI = LI x TI x MI

Growth Index

TI - Temperature index

RI - Radiation index

MI - Moisture index


Analyses

Mapping

Regional Reports

The National Monitoring System


Conclusions

Also consider flexible, pragmatic systems that:• Analyse data rapidly• Provide simple outputs• Respond to wide range of requests• Use our skills to provide advice on output

Future• Weather Wizard (frost, growing degree days, vernalisation)• Climate change/adaptation


“… not … the simplicity this side of complexity, but … the simplicity on the other side of complexity.”

Oliver Wendell Holmes

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