Ruth Sanger Oration 2009
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Transcript of Ruth Sanger Oration 2009
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Karl Popper, Thomas Kuhn and the common sense of transfusion medicine
Albert FarrugiaRuth Sanger Oration
Adelaide 20 October 2009
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Disclosures and Disclaimers
• Compensated services to the blood industry internationally
• None of the views expressed in this oration reflect those of my past or current affiliations
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19 October 2009
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Summary
• Some philosophy• Some epistemology• Some sociology• Some transfusion medicine• Some regulation• Acknowledgments• Final reflections
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Scientific certainty
“It is certainly no small advantage that we enjoy living at the present day with the medical arts already brought to such a perfection.”
Galen106 A.D. – 211 A.D.
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Scientific certainty• The fact of global warming is
"unequivocal." The certainty of the human
role is now somewhere over 90 percent.
Which is about as certain as scientists ever
get.
• I would like to say we're at a point where
global warming is impossible to deny. Let's
just say that global warming deniers are
now on a par with Holocaust deniers,
though one denies the past and the other
denies the present and future.
Ms Ellen Goodman
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Two Titans
Five years after William Thomson Lord Kelvin made this statement in 1900, Albert Einstein published his papers on special relativity, the quantum theory of light and others
There is nothing new to be discovered in physics now. All that remains is more and more precise measurement
In so far as the statements of mathematics speak about reality, they are not certain, and in so far as they are certain, they do not speak about reality
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Popper’s Falsifiability• Scientific theories make predictions
that can be proved wrong• At this point the scientific theory is
abandoned• Science makes testable predictions,
and then does the experiments• Most of science consists of trying to
prove itself wrong
“I generally have a lot of respect for common sense……..But it is not always reliable…..And in matters of scientific [] theory, it is extremely important to have a really critical attitude to it”
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Falsificationism and progress of science• Science starts with problems.
• Falsifiable hypotheses are
proposed by scientists as solutions
to the problems.
• The conjectured hypotheses are
then criticized and tested.
– Some will be quickly eliminated.
– Others might prove more
successful.
• These must be subject to even
more stringent criticism and
testing.
• When a hypothesis is eventually
falsified, a new problem has emerged.
• This new problem calls for the invention
of new hypotheses, followed by
renewed criticism and testing.
• It can never be said of a theory that it is
true, however well it has withstood the
rigorous tests
• Hopefully it can be said that a current
theory is superior to its predecessors -
in the sense that it is able to withstand
tests that falsified those predecessors.
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Benjamin Rush(Founding Father of USA, and famous physician)
• He believed the best treatment for Yellow Fever was vigorous bloodletting
• If patient got better it was because of treatment• If patient died then it was because the patient had been
too ill for any treatment to work.• This error in thinking illustrates one of the most
important principles in scientific thinking.• Rush violated the most important rule regarding the
construction and testing of theories in science: He made it impossible to falsify his theory.
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Thomas Kuhn’s The Structureof Scientific Revolutions
• First published in 1962• Translated into 20
languages• Has sold over a million
copies• Has affected just about
every field and discipline• Remains a point of
controversy
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Paradigms
.
• Framework that affects world view.
– Synonyms :Theory, Model,
Protocols, Patterns,
Methodologies, Routines,
Habit, Common Sense,
Customs, Rituals
• We may not even be aware of our
paradigms as we have always had
them, or we acquire them
gradually through our experience.
• Many times those around
us also share our
paradigms making us less
aware of them as we do
not encounter any
different paradigms
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Kuhn’s viewsScience, like all other types of human activities, is a fundamentally social and community-based process
Science
• Science is based above all on
shared paradigms, not
methods or sets of facts
• Progress in science has been
discontinuous and
revolutionary, not incremental
and evolutionary – and
certainly not consensual
Scientific Revolutions
• Involve the replacement of one
paradigm by another
• Involve the rethinking of
everything that had been
“known” before
• Are driven by communities of
scientists who act to some degree
on “faith”
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When a paradigm is good/bad?
•A paradigm is good when the problem to be solved is within the boundary that the paradigm is effective /efficient to solve.
•A paradigm is bad when it is no longer effective /efficient to solve your problem and yet, you are blinded by the paradigm without notice - Paradigm Paralysis.
•When:• the current paradigm failed to solve problem effectively or
efficiently.• you found a better way.
Then it’s time for a paradigm shift
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Stages of Paradigm Shift• A paradigm shift is a REVOLUTIONARY way of thinking about an old
problem - a dramatic change in our perception.
An existing paradigm is in place
» Kuhn begins from the premise that a person or even an entire society
have one or more existing paradigms in place that are passed on from
generation to generation.
Investments made in existing paradigm
» By investments, Kuhn means many different things. For some people it
might mean their career or standing in their profession
Resistance to anomalies and preservation of existing paradigm
Adoption of new paradigm
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Kuhn’s Basic Model
Gallileo Galillei Marie Curie Albert Einstein Neils Bohr Barry Marshall and Robin Warren
Paradigm Shifters
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EDINBURGH 1983 CAPE TOWN 2006
MALTA 1981 PRAGUE 2006
EARLY MENTORS
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The (current) paradigm of transfusion medicine (?)
• Blood component therapy
• Blood donation is safe and needs to be increased
• Voluntary non – remunerated donation
• National self sufficiency
• Sheltered from EBM, efficacy assumed historically
• Australia (and Germany, Yemen, Monaco, the Galapagos
Islands…) has the safest blood in the world
• Hospital practice unquestioned
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The position of WHO “The Melbourne declaration”
• “evidence shows that regular voluntary, non-remunerated blood donors are the
cornerstone of safe and sustainable national supplies of blood and blood
products”
• “national blood services based on 100% voluntary non-remunerated blood
donations ...... will increase the safety of the blood supply by reducing the
transmission of transfusion-transmissible infections”
• “Urge all governments to appreciate and protect all voluntary non-remunerated
blood donors, develop a strategy for a stepwise progression from whole blood to
the preparation of labile components and ensure that all recovered plasma is
used for fractionation, thereby fully utilizing every donation”( http://www.who.int/entity/worldblooddonorday/MelbourneDeclaration2009.doc)
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Blood Component Therapy
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CT bad for kidneysMore ARDS with FWB
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Whole Blood in the Management ofHypovolemia Due to Obstetric Hemorrhage
Alexander et al Obstet Gynecol 2009;113:1320–6)
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Duration of red blood cell storage is associated with increased incidence of deep vein thrombosis and in-hospital mortality in patients with traumatic injuries Critical Care 2009, 13:R151 doi:10.1186/cc8050
P Spinella,C Carroll,I Staff, R Gross,J Mc Quay,L Keibel, C Wade, and J Holcomb
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TRANSFUSION OF STORED LEUCODEPLETED RED BLOOD CELLS CAUSES CARDIAC, PULMONARY AND RENAL DYSFUNCTION AND INJURY.
• 20 pigs randomized to four units of 42 DO SAG-M RCCs or sham• RCCs similar to human at D42, s/n toxins, RBCchanges etc• Relative to sham group, Txd pigs showed:
– Acute Kidney Injury – 14% reduction in creatinine clearance, 46% reduction in free water clearance and 69% increase in urinary protein/creatinine ratio
• At autopsy – marked changes in renal tubular morphology with dilation and vacuolation
– Lung Injury – 10% reduction in lung compliance, 20% increase in inspiratory airway resistance
– Cardiac injury – nine fold increase in serum troponin– Endothelial injury – reduced excretion of urinary nitric oxide
BLOOD KILLS !Patel et al Bristol UK
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2008 Report
Compared to the risks suggested by emerging evidence on stored red cells, these risks are insignificant
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Safety of Blood Donation
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Iron deficiency in Oz donors at start of fresh blood regulationDoherty et al ARCBS 2000
0
5
10
15
20
25
% Iron
deficient
Females Males
< 50> 50
[Iron deficiency defined as serum ferritin <12 µg/l]
Female Male
Age <50 >50 <50 >50 No. Dons 1 42.2 84.4 158.2 232.2 2 28.9 51.4 83.3 47.1 3 17.9 31.8 77.3 47.9 4 12.1 28.9 34.2 60.1
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Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's HealthPatterson et al Quality of Life Research 9: 491±497, 2000.
• Associations between self-reported `low iron‘ and general health and well-being in women.
• Women who had `low iron' reported significantly lower mean scores, and greater prevalence of `constant tiredness' at baseline.
• Mean scores at follow-up were significantly lower for women who reported recent iron deficiency.
• The results suggested that iron deficiency is associated with decreased general health and well-being and increased fatigue.
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% of Total Donor
Population Iron Deficient
ARCBS Hb threshold from 1/1/04
Males – 128g/L 6.2%
Females – 118g/L 22.0%
ARCBS Hb threshold from 1/1/05 (UK)
Males – 130g/L 6.0%
Females – 120g/L 20.6%
Council of Europe Hb threshold
Males – 135g/L 5.3%
Females – 125g/L 18.9%
COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA
THERAPEUTIC GOODS ACT 1989
SECTION 14 NOTICE
On 26 March 2002, ……… gave his consent for the Australian Red Cross Blood Service (ARCBS) for the collection of blood by the ARCBS to be exempt from the provision ……..[regarding pre-donation Hb]
The conditions for this consent under section 15(1) of the Act are that 1. …….. 2. This exemption is granted subject to:
(i) The ARCBS is to introduce the following haemoglobin cut-offs on 1 January 2004 Males 128 g/L Females 118 g/L
(ii) The ARCBS is to introduce the following haemoglobin cut-offs on
1 January 2005 Males 130 g/L Females 120 g/L
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“Short-term iron replacement is effective and safe therapy for blood donors who are iron-deficient and is not harmful to those who have adequate iron…..iron should be recommended to all menstruating women to prevent harm”
TRANSFUSION 2006;46:1667-1681.
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March 2009
BUT
• Gordeuk et al Trans
1990;30:239-245
• Randomised double blind trial of
low dose carbonyl iron in female
donors post donation
• Iron replaced 85% carbonyl
group vs 29% control (p<0.001)
• Deferral for low Hb 8% in
carbonyl group vs 36% control
• SO – what are we waiting for?
• (Is regulator cooperating?)
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Safety and Ethics
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Whole blood safety in LithuaniaVox Sanguinis (2008) 94 , 209–215
•In both first time and regular non-remunerated donors, anti-HCV and (1st time) HBsAg were much higher than in source (compensated) US donors
•No difference in risk ratio existed when comparing the regular donations who were remunerated and non-remunerated.
Germany University Hospital MarburgTransfus Med Hemother 2004;31:301–307
Look-back Procedures Because of Sero-converted Donors
RCBS Marburg p value*
Compensation No YesBlood units 86,331 179,426Total 16 2
<0.0001HIV 3 1 n.t.HBV 3 0 n.t.HCV 9 1 n.t.*Chi-square test.
Paid or unpaid?
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Volunteerism? “What is true
volunteerism? ........ I was also struck, even recently, in 2003 by the photographs published in a newspaper: parades of medals - silver medals, star-studded and gilded silver medal – with perfectly identifiable persons. With this, maybe excessive visibility, aren’t there grounds to question the links between voluntarism and anonymity?”Professor Didier Sicard, President of the CCNE National Ethics Advisory Committee, Trans Clin Biol 2008
Donation in Italy• Offering a day off work increases
average donation rate by one/year• Donors cluster their donation days
around Friday – long w/e’s• Awards in the form of medals
increase donations• Public recognition of such award
increases them most of all“individuals are responsive to economic considerations in their blood donation decisions in a way that is largely consistent with standard economic intuition”
Lactera and Macis Bonn Institute of Labour 2008
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Blood Donation is an Act of Benevolence Rather Than Altruism
• The sociology literature now abounds with studies showing that “altruistic” acts also benefit the givers
• This is also the case for “voluntary” blood donation - Fergusson et al University of Nottingham UK, Health Psychology 2008, Vol. 27, No. 3, 327–336
• Test two hypothesis for blood donation – Benevolence - both the donor and recipient benefit– Altruism - only the recipient gains
• Three United Kingdom–based studies » Committed blood donors were more willing to donate blood when exposed to a
benevolent message rather than an altruistic one. » Conclusions: The benevolence hypothesis is supported, suggesting that blood
donor motivation is partly selfish. » Blood donation campaigns should focus on benevolent rather than purely
altruistic messages.
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Replacement Donors and WHO’s Blood Policy in South Saharan Africa
Policy
• Blood should only be sourced from voluntary non-remunerated donors
• Replacement donor system not mentioned in policies or recommendations
Claims
• <40%, 58% and 73% of blood in Africa in 2002, 2006 and 2007 was from voluntary donors – target by 2012 is 80%
• 12/46 countries have 100% VNRD (including Ghana and Malawi)
Reality
• Average annual blood collection rate is 5.14/103
• 77.9% VD, 21.9% family/ replacement donors, 0.2% paid donors
• 50% were from repeat voluntary donors.
• 17/41 countries had <50% VNRD
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Blood as a Therapeutic Good
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QUALITY…. EFFICACY….
…...AND COST
EFFECTIVENESS!!!SAFETY
Regulators’ brief
Getting therapeutic goods on the market.......and how blood is different
ASSUMEDPRECAUTIONISM GMP IGNORED(UNLESS
POLITICS SAYS OTHERWISE)
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Blood components – Do they work?• RCCs
– “To increase oxygen delivery to the tissues”…but – Do tx red cells increase VO2 ?
• Yes, around the critical [Hb] ie about 50g/l, but• At 80 g/l, no obvious effect (Walsh et al 2004)
• Platelets• PLADO study – Low vs Medium vs High dose platelets• Same clinical outcome irrespective of dose
• FFP– Two higher quality trials - Both evaluated prophylaxis
– No benefit reported in either trial
The move to component therapy was driven by need for plasma derivatives for a few, not to improve care for the majority of recipients
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What role can regulation have in a new blood safety paradigm?
• Regulation has contributed primarily to product quality through the
pharmaceutical model
• However, regulators also assess and approve efficacy and therapeutic claims
• With the increasing cost and complexity of the blood system, consideration
of such claims is becoming an urgent need
• Regulation also includes post-approval assessment and monitoring of
therapeutic goods on the market
• Increasingly, blood systems have implemented systems for such assessment
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Proposed regulation of blood 2005- • Tiered system geared to risk• Risk seen as a function of
– Manufacturing complexity– Source– Historical use
• Established components exempt from efficacy assessment• THIS PRINCIPLE DEMANDS REVISION
“……the light of history will shine from their helmets……..”W.S.Churchill 1945
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“Safe…never as safe……safer than its ever been….safest in the world”
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Australia is, indeed, in a very envious position. We have one of the world’s safest and best managed blood supplies…….
Sen J McLucas, Minister for the TGA 2007-09
We are fortunate to live in a nation that has the safest blood supply in the world
Dr Janet HeinrichUS GAOCongressional testimony 1999
Blood Kills!Tell ‘em Mo
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Arboviruses in OzARCBS 08 (Communicable Diseases Australia) Aust N Z Public Health. 2008; 32:354-60
Virus Number of notifications Notifications/105 popn.
2007 Last 5 year mean 2007 Last 5 year mean
Barmah Forest virus 1665 1366 8.1 6.7
Dengue Flavivirus 318 358 1.5 1.8
Unclassified Flavivirus 23 51 0.1 0.3
Japanese encephalitis 0 1 0 0
Kunjin 0 9 0 0
Murray Valley encephalitis
0 2 0 0
Ross River virus 4143 3513 19.7 17.3
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The Dengue Story
• TGA concern early 2003 – request ARCBS to not use blood from Dengue areas
• ARCBS skepticism “…there is only minimal evidence for transfusion transmission, and
no other country in the world has introduced severe restrictions…..”
• Interaction led to policy – 14 April 2003– use plasma for fractionation, discard
transfusable components – during period of outbreak
TGA showed considerable courage – no other authority used this policy
There was nothing “consensual” about this – synthesis of two views, still strongly
held
TGA – Dengue is a blood risk
ARCBS – risk minimal and secondary to supply
maintenance
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Blood in Hospitals
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Moment of “Faine”Jon Faine Morning Program ABC Melbourne 27/8/07
………the Therapeutic Goods Administration is thinking only of blood and blood products, which they also licence, as a medicine and not as a gift from a donor………. Albert Farrugia, who's the - oh, a very senior person in the Office of Devices in the TGA. Well, my comment - my colleagues said that he was extremely upset at one of the presentations where they showed that one Melbourne hospital had been able to reduce the wastage of SFP - that's thawed but not transfused - down to about two per cent, which was really fantastic……..
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49
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10 Day 0Day 5Day 10
FFP
Fo
ld d
ecre
ase in
perm
eab
ility
ab
ove c
on
tro
l
The Protective Effects of FFP on the Endothelium after ShockHolcomb IABS Cambridge 209
Central hypothesis that FFP has the capacity to “normalize” injured endothelium by inhibiting and repairing the damage from a number of detrimental processes induced by Haemorrhagic Shock.
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50
0
40
80
120M
AP
(m
mH
g)
B 10' 30' 1h 2h 3h 4h 5h 6h hours
FFP Day 5
FFP Day 0
*
*****
*
* *
p<0.05 end HS vs B*p<0.05 FFP Day 0; FFP Day 5 vs end HS
end of HS
FFP
Holcomb IABS Cambridge 209
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Acknowledgments
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Thanks to…….Innumerable colleagues from
the Transfusion Family
Manchester UK 1985
TWO RUTH SANGER RECIPIENTS !
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Take care of all your memories, said NickIf you cannot relive them,And remember, when you come to heal the sick, That you must first of all forgive them
Bob Dylan
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Final Thoughts of a TransfusionistHistory and Beliefs
• Whole blood transfusion for haemorrhage saved lives
that would previously have been lost. Belief started there
• Blood became interdependent with the expanding
medical industry: businesses and empires were built.
• We market the “gift of life” to encourage donors and we
believe our own advertising
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Final Thoughts of a transfusionistHistory and beliefs
• Having failed to appreciate pathogen related risks for a
long time, we now focus on marginal issues while major
problems are ignored.
• Component therapy has been preached to the world by
“experts” without regard to local needs
• We still damn whole blood without seeking evidence
about when it might be a good treatment
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Consensual statements• People who fail to tackle climate change are acting
like an Austrian man who locked his daughter in a cellar for 24 years, an Anglican bishop has said.
• The Bishop of Stafford, Gordon Mursell, wrote in a parish letter that not confronting global warming meant people were "as guilty as" Josef Fritzl.
BBC 2008
British Foreign Secretary Compares Global Warming Theory Skeptics to Islamic Terrorists“...let us deny the terrorists the historical importance they claim to themselves………In practical terms that means avoiding the temptation to artifically polarise debate. …..I've seen it so often in the long-running debate on climate change: wheel out the resident sceptic, however unrepresentative or discredited, to generate tension and voice provocative views …. it is not the way to build a common consensus on the ground we share...”
Margaret Beckett
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“New opinions are always suspected, and usually opposed, without any other reason but because they are not already common.”
“There must be more than one alternative policy ; they must come from more than a single source; and there must be sufficient dispersion of power in society so that competing sources of advice have a chance of being heard and acted upon”
The best option is the one which persuades and can be justifiedThe best process is the one which encourages argument
John LockeEnglish Philosopher(1632-1704)
Aaron Wildavsky American Political Scientist(1930-1993)
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Toads
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Towards a new paradigm…..and its already happening
• Whole blood needs to become a product again
• Supply to patients should not be impeded by non-clinical interests
• The blow torch of EBM needs to be applied to TM
• Plasma for fractionation should be collected for that purpose by the
fractionating agency
• Safety concerns need to focus on real issues
• Vein to Vein means oversight over the whole transfusion chain
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“there is a crack, a crack in everything,that’s how the light gets in”
Leonard Cohen
“If it ain’t broke, break it”
Marvin Lee Aday(aka Meat Loaf)
BECAUSE
And, remember, in defiance of “common sense”………..