RUSSIAN ENERGY — 2015 · 21 Primary crude oil refining in Russia 21 Crude oil refining in Russia...
Transcript of RUSSIAN ENERGY — 2015 · 21 Primary crude oil refining in Russia 21 Crude oil refining in Russia...
RUSSIAN ENERGY — 2015Release — September 2016
CONTENTS
Russian Energy — 2015 3
5 Macroeconomy6 Economic growth in the leading economies
of the world
7 Economic growth in Russia and leading world economies (quarterly data)
8 Monthly dynamics of industrial production in Russia and leading industrial economies of the world
8 Main commodity prices (IMF indices)
9 Dynamics of main exchange rates
10 Change in investments in fixed capital of Russia
10 External trade of Russia: exports and imports of goods, trade balance
10 Structure of Russian federal budget incomes and non-oil-and-gas federal budget deficit
11 Energy intensity of Russian GDP according to different estimates
11 СO2 emissions in Russia and other countries
13 OIL14 Countries with largest oil reserves
14 Russia’s share in the world oil reserves
15 Сrude oil and condensate production in Russia
15 Сrude oil and condensate production in Russia by region
16 Top oil producing countries
16 Russia’s share in the world oil production
17 Сrude oil production by leading Russian oil companies
18 Top oil consuming countries
18 Russia’s share in the world oil consumption
19 Production and flaring of associated gas in Russia
19 Associated gas flaring by region
19 Associated gas utilisation
20 Countries with largest refining capacities
20 Russia’s share in the world refining capacity
21 Primary crude oil refining in Russia
21 Crude oil refining in Russia
22 Basic petroleum products output
22 Motor fuel output by emission standarts in Russia
22 Gasoline output structure in Russia
23 Petroleum products shipment in russian regions
24 Russian crude oil and petroleum products exports
24 Russian petroleum products exports to OECD countries
25 World oil prices
25 Petroleum products exchange trading in Russia (spimex)
25 Average motor fuel prices in Russia
26 Average gasoline (RON-92) prices in Russia by region
27 Gasoline (RON-92) price change in Russia by region
28 Investment in Russian oil sector
28 Percentage change in oil cector investment
Russian Energy — 2015 4
29 Natural Gas30 Countries with the largest natural gas reserves
30 Russia’s share in the world natural gas reserves
31 Top natural gas producing couturiers
31 Russia’s share in the world natural gas production
32 The share of LNG in the world gas trade
32 Russia and other countries in world exports of natural gas
33 Russia`s largest natural gas fields: reserves
34 Major producing gas fields in Russia
35 Natural gas in Russia: production, consumption and exports
35 Russia’s natural gas production by region
36 Russia’s natural gas production by company
36 Independent gas producers in Russia
37 Russia`s natural gas consumption by sector
37 Natural gas consumption in the top natural gas consuming countries
37 Investment for Russian regions gasification
37 Russia’s gasification level
38 LNG production and exports in Russia
38 Share of Russia`s LNG exports by destination
38 CNG consumption in road transport
38 The world prices of natural gas
39 Share of Russia`s natural gas exports by destination
41 Coal42 Countries with largest coal reserves
42 Top coal producing countries
42 Russia’s share in the world coal production
43 Explored coal reserves in Russia by main basin
43 Coal production in Russia by main basin
44 Coal production in Russia by region
44 Coal production and upgrading (at plants) in Russia by type
45 Russian investment in coal industry
45 Largest coal producers in Russia
46 Top coal consuming countries
46 Russia’s share in the world coal consumption
47 Coal consumption in Russia
47 Average domestic coal prices in Russia
48 Structure of Russia’s coal exports by destination
49 Top coal exporting countries
49 World coal prices
49 Russia’s share in the world coal exports
51 Petrochemicals52 Production of petrochemical feedstocks
in Russia
52 Synthetic rubber production in Russia
52 Petrochemical feedstocks refining
53 Plastics production in primary forms in Russia
53 Average annual producers prices of some petrochemical products
54 International trade volumes of some petrochemical products
54 Russian investments in petrochemical industry
55 Change in polymers production and consumption in Russia
57 Electricity58 Installed capacity in Russia
58 Additional power capacity in UES of Russia in 2014: total and by the Capacity Delivery Agreement (CDA)
59 Investments in generation, transmission and distribution of electricity in Russia
59 Change in investments in electricity in fixed capital of Russia
60 Average electricity price by consumers (nominal prices)
60 Electricity price for households exceeds the price for industry
61 Electricity consumption growth in the UES of Russia
61 Industrial Production Index in Russia and federal districs
MACROECONOMYGlobal economic growth decelerated in 2015 because of a slowdown in big emerging economies but that gives a hope for stabilization or even reduction of greenhouse gas emissions
Brazil IndiaUSJapanItalyUKFranceGermanyRussia
-10,0
-5,0
0
5,0
10,0
15,0
China
Russian Energy — 2015. Macroeconomy 6
Economic growth in the leading economies of the world2005-2015, % ch. y/y
In 2015 the global economy faced the new slowdown: its growth equaled rate only of 3.1%. That was the worst result since 2002, except the crisis of 2008-2009. Growth rates in emerging economies are going down for the fifth consecutive year, while developed countries demonstrated in 2015 the most rapid upturn for the last 5 years.
The dynamics of developing countries was supported by India: for the first time in the XXI century India overcame China in terms of economic growth indicators, and that relation between the two economies will (most probably) remain stable, due to Chinese structural economic downturn. Brazil and Russia as commodity-dependent economies sharply stopped in 2015.
Source: IMF
ЕU-28
China
US
Russia
I II
2013 2014 2015
III IV I II III IV I II III IV
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
-0,3
0
0,3
0,6
0,9
1,2
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
1,5
1,7
1,9
2,1
2,3
2,5
Russian Energy — 2015. Macroeconomy 7
Economic growth in Russia and leading world economies (quarterly data) 2013–2015, % ch. q/q, seasonally adjusted data
Sources: World Bank, Eurostat
Economic growth in China in each quarter of 2015 was slightly less than in the same quarter of 2014. But there were no instant drops. Consequently annual growth went under 7 %. Planned targets for 2016 are also set around this level.
Low energy prices partially helped to maintain sustainable growth in the USA (2.4 % as in the previous year) and in the EU (almost 2 %, in 2014 it was 1.4 %) but their influence was ambiguous: they had a negative impact on investments, so that the slowdown in US in late 2015 is partially attributed to that effect. In addition, low energy prices strengthened the deflationary pressure, which constrained economic activity in the developed countries. Moreover, the acceleration of the economic growth in the EU was due to the weakness of euro in 2015.
The Russian economy went through a hard landing in early 2015 but in the second half of the year the situation stabilized. GDP fell by 3.7 % in 2015. The crisis was especially sharp in manufacturing (–5.1 % of value added compared to 2014), construction (–7.4 %) and trade (–10 %), while mining (+1.1 %) and agriculture (+3.1 %) increased their value added in real terms.
90
104
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111
97
125
2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 20152013 2014 20152013 2014 2015
USGermany Russia China
2013 2014 201530
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
agricultural raw materials foodmetals energy
Russian Energy — 2015. Macroeconomy 8
Monthly dynamics of industrial production in Russia and leading industrial economies of the world
Main commodity prices (IMF indices)
2013-2015, Dec. 2012 = 100, seasonally adjusted data
2013–2015, Jan. 2013 = 100
Source: IMF
Sources: World Bank, Rosstat
According to World Bank, the growth of global industrial production in 2015 was at its bottom rate since the crisis of 2008-2009.
The strength of the dollar in 2015 negatively affected the US industry. An additional issue was considered to be of problems was the tough situation in oil and gas production.
Russian industry faced a collapse in early 2015 with the easement in the second half of the year. Textile & clothing industry and machinery manufacturing were among the worst performers: they experienced an essential drop in production by reached about 10 % in 2015. Food and chemicals industries, on the contrary, significantly grew (+2.0 % and +6,3 % respectively).
The growth of industrial production in China was uneven in the context of the slowdown of external demand and internal investments. Ultimately it considerably fell: from 8.2 % in 2014 to 6.2 % in 2015.
Metal prices dropped too: IMF metals index fell dramatically by almost 30 % during 2015. Aluminum and lead kept stronger positions (prices fell only by 10-20 %), while the most considerable decrease in prices took place on the markets for nickel and iron ore (–40-45 %). The latest developments contributed to a collapse of steel prices at LME and to a more or less strong price drops in markets for different kinds of rolled products.
In 2015 commodity prices plunged under the influence of global economic slowdown. The most significant losses were spotted in the energy sector: IMF energy commodities index plummeted by 39 % during 2015. Coal demonstrated slightly better performance than other energy carriers: it lost only 15-30 % of price on different markets.
The decrease in food prices reached 15 % by the end of 2015 in comparison to the beginning of the year. The sharpest decline was spotted on the markets for meat (beef, pork, lamb cheapened by approximately 30 %) and certain grains (prices for wheat and soybean meal also fell by 30 %). World prices for sugar and fruits remained generally stable. Tea became more expensive (by more than 40 %) because of a poor harvest in Kenya, which is considered to be key global supplier.
0,5янв мар май июл сен ноя
2013 2014 2015
янв мар май июл сен ноя янв мар май июл сен ноя
0,7
0,9
1,1
1,3
1,5
0,50
0,55
0,60
0,65
0,70
20
30
50
70
80
1,0
1,1
1,2
1,4
1,5
1,3
40
60
Rubles per USD
Pounds per USD
100 yen per USD
USD per euro
Russian Energy — 2015. Macroeconomy 9
Dynamics of main exchange rates2013-2015
After the rally of US dollar in the second half of 2014, its exchange rate remained generally stable and relatively high in 2015 amid the absence of sharp movements in the Fed policies and the presence of low commodity prices.
The exchange rate of Russian ruble followed oil prices, as expected. It strengthened in mid-2015 and fell again afterwards. Nevertheless, despite even more significant fall of oil prices in 2015, the exchange rate was kept at a level not weaker than 70 rubles per 1 USD.
Source: Thomson Reuters
Extraction of energy resources
Oil refining
Electricity, gas and heat
Pipeline transportation
Total (the whole economy)
218,3–70,3–341,2–87,0
–1167,3 –10,2
10,7–13,2–29,1–11,4
absolute change to 2014bln rubles (constant prices)
per cent change, physical volume% to 2014
100
200
300
400
500
600
10
14
16
20
22
18
12
20122011201020092008200720062005 20152014201320152014
exports imports trade balance
jan mar may jul sep nov jan mar may jul sep nov
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
20152014
oil and gas incomes
non-oil and gas incomes
non-oil deficit
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
20152014
oil and gas incomes
non-oil and gas incomes
non-oil deficit
Russian Energy — 2015. Macroeconomy 10
Change in investments in fixed capital of Russia
Structure of Russian federal budget incomes and non-oil-and-gas federal budget deficit
External trade of Russia: exports and imports of goods, trade balance
2015 to 2014 (without small enterprises and statistically unobservable investments)
2014-2015, trln rubles
2005-2015, bln USD
Source: Rosstat Source: The Ministry of Finance of Russia
Source: World Bank
The crisis of 2015 heavily damaged the investment climate in Russia: the decline was obvious already in 2014 but in 2015 its scope at least doubled. Unlike in 2014, decrease in investments strongly affected energy industries, especially power sector, which suffers from excess capacities.
Power sector and transports (including pipeline transportation) made the greatest contribution to the drop in investments in the Russian economy (real estate and manufacturing — to a lesser degree).
Extraction of energy resources demonstrated the rise in investments due to oil and LNG industries. Sharp decline of oil prices in 2015 inevitably led to the decrease in Russian federal budget incomes by 850 bln rubles. Non-oil-and-gas incomes grew thanks to VAT (because of a higher inflation rate) and receipts from public assets (because of ruble devaluation and consequent growth of foreign assets in terms of rubles).
The increase of non-oil-and-gas incomes gave an opportunity to raise budget expenses in 2015 by more than 770 bln rubles without any aggravation of non-oil-and-gas deficit.
Further downsurge of energy prices in 2015 put Russian exports under pressure, while the opportunities of import substitution were restricted, and partially they were activated already in 2014. Consequently, the worsening of trade balance was inevitable in 2015. The situation especially aggravated in the second half of the year, following the new drop in commodity prices.
RussiaEU USWorld China
IEABP Rosstat
0,18
0,19
0,20
0,21
0,22
0,23
0,24
20152014201320122011201020092008200720062005
Russian Energy — 2015. Macroeconomy 11
Energy intensity of Russian GDP according to different estimates2005-2015, toe / th. USD-2011 (PPP)
Different estimates simultaneously give evidence of the improvement of energy efficiency in Russia in 2011-2013 by almost 5 %. There is some controversy in later data. Nevertheless, the crisis in 2014-2015, most probably, torpedoed the development of energy efficiency in Russia.
Sources: IEA, BP, Rosstat
СO2 emissions in Russia and other countries2005-2015, bln t
In 2015 global CO2 emissions might be very close to their all-time peak. The growth of CO2 emissions was only 0.1 %. The slowdown of the Chinese economy and the second consecutive year of coal consumption decline in China became significant factors this result. According to BP, growth of CO2 emissions in China stopped in 2014, and in 2015 it became negative. It was still insufficient to provide global CO2 emissions decrease but the progress is far more far more obvious.
Source: BP
OILIncrease in crude oil and petroleum products exports in Russia was accompanied by primary crude oil refining reduction
10
20
30
40
50
Venezuela Saudi Arabia Canada Iran Iraq Russia Kuwait UAE
0
2
4
6
8
10
2015201020052000
Russian Energy — 2015. Oil 14
Countries with largest oil reserves Russia’s share in the world oil reserves2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, bln t
2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, %In 2010-2015 the split of the proven oil reserves didn’t change much. Venezuela still held the leadership after multiplying its four times investigated reserves sine 2000 thanks to heavy and extra heavy oil of Orinoco oil belt.
Source: BP
20
40
60
80
100
2015201420132012201120102009200820072006200520042003200220012000
other
Far East
North West
Siberia
Ural
Volga
100
200
300
400
500
600
201520142013г2012201120102009200820072006200520042003200220012000
Russian Energy — 2015. Oil 15
Сrude oil and condensate production in Russia
Сrude oil and condensate production in Russia by region
2000—2015, Mt
2000–2015, %
Crude oil production in Ural Federal District continues to decrease (by 0.4 Mt in 2015) but it still provides more than half of total Russian crude oil production (56.2 %). However, crude oil production decline rate stabilized at 1 % per year.
Crude oil production drop on mature fields in Ural Federal District is compensated by rise in production in Volga Federal District (stable growth throughout the whole reporting period due the to tax breaks and the application of enhanced oil recovery methods) and by expansion of greenfields exploration in Siberian (by 1.7 Mt) and Far Eastern Federal Districts (by 3 Mt).
Crude oil and condensate production in Russia in 2015 increased by 8.2 Mt (+3.6 %), indicating a continuous growth in liquid hydrocarbon production in the country since 2009 (on average by 1.3 % per year).
Nevertheless, oil production growth rates in Russia are decreasing driven by gradual entering oil production plateau and increase in tight oil production share.
Source: Rosstat
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
US Saudi Arabia Russia China Canada UAE Iran Iraq
10
11
12
13
14
20152014201320122011201020092008200720062005
Russian Energy — 2015. Oil 16
Top oil producing countries Russia’s share in the world oil production2005–2015, Mt
2005–2015, %In 2015, the world’s oil supply grew by 2,8 %. The Russia’s share in the global oil production continued to decrease despite the growth of the overall production. In 2015, the USA fostered its leadership in oil production, despite the fall of global market prices. Among the OPEC member states, it was Iraq which came up with the highest increase in oil production.
Source: IEA
50
100
150
200
RussNeftBashneftTatneftGazprom NeftSurgutneftegazLukoilRosneft
20132012 2014 2015
189,2190,6
87,2
61,4
31,6 26,315,5 8,9
85,7
61,6
34,327,2
19,97,4
Russian Energy — 2015. Oil 17
Сrude oil production by leading Russian oil companies2012–2015, Mt
Three of seven leading Russian oil-producing companies decline in output: Rosneft (–1.7 Mt), RussNeft (–1.2 Mt) and LUKOIL (–0.9 Mt). The rest of the companies increased oil production with the largest absolute increase in Bashneft (+2 Mt)
Source: CDU TEK
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
US Japan Russia India Brazil Saudi ArabiaChina
2
3
4
5
20152014201320122011201020092008200720062005
Russian Energy — 2015. Oil 18
Top oil consuming countries Russia’s share in the world oil consumption2005–2015, Mt
2005–2015, %In 2015, the overall global of oil consumption increased by 2 %, which was mainly made possible thanks to the plunging prices. The consumption growth in developed countries was 1 %, whereas in developing countries it was considerably higher — 2,3 % (mostly on the strength of the consumption growth in the Asian market). Russia’s share in the world oil consumption decreased for the first time since 2009.
Source: IEA
20
40
60
80
2015201420132012201120102009200820072006200520042003200220012000
production flaring
20
40
60
80
100
20152014201320122011201020092008
Оther
North West
Volga
Ural
Siberia
60
66
72
78
84
90
2015201420132012201120102009200820072006200520042003200220012000
Russian Energy — 2015. Oil 19
The rate of associated gas utilisation in 2015 reached 88.2 % (+3 p. p. as compared with 2015) and exceeded all-time high of 1995 by 7.2 p. p. despite the continuous growth in crude oil production. Resulting from legislative changes which encouraged encouraged investment in associated gas utilization and processing).
Far Eastern Federal District demonstrated the highest rate of utilization (96.7 %) while the lowest rate was recorded in Northwestern Federal District (62.2 %).
Siberian Federal District is the leading region in terms of associated gas flaring volume (38.8 % of total Russian volume) passed ahead of the former leader — Ural Federal District (27.4 %) — in 2012. This shift is attributed to changes in geographical structure of crude oil production (greenfields output growth with no prepared infrastructure for utilization) and higher rate arrangements in mature oil-producing regions.
Source: Rosstat Source: Rosstat
Source: Rosstat
Production and flaring of associated gas in Russia
Associated gas utilisation
2000–2015, bcm
2000–2015, %
Associated gas flaring by region2008–2015, %
200
400
600
800
1000
US South KoreaChina ЕU Russia India Japan Brazil IranSaudi Arabia
4
5
6
7
8
20152014201320122011201020092008200720062005
Russian Energy — 2015. Oil 20
Countries with largest refining capacities
Russia’s share in the world refining capacity
2005–2015, Mt 2005–2015, %
In the years 2010-2014 the world’s refining capacities continued to grow by 1-2 % per year. The major sources of this growth are in the Middle East and Asia. Russia’s share in the global refining capacities continued as well. At the same time in the EU refining industry experienced a durable reduction of capacities.
Source: ВР
67
69
71
73
75
201520142013201220112010200920082007200620052004200320022000
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20142013 2015
Russian Energy — 2015. Oil 21
Crude oil refining in Russia in 2015 recorded 287.2 Mt, which is 7.2 Mt lower than in the previous year (–2.4 %). The largest absolute decrease was recorded in Volga Federal District — by 9.9 Mt (8.7 %). Nevertheless it is still the leading crude oil refining region (35.9 % of total Russia crude oil refining volume). The largest absolute increase was recorded in Southern (+1.8 Mt) and Ural (+1.7 Mt) Federal Districts.
Average refining depth in Russia in 2015 reached 74.1 % (+0.7 p. p. versus 2014) and exceeded all-time high of 2008 by 2 p. p. due to Russian refineries modernisation which is scheduled to be completed by 2020.
Source: Rosstat
Source: Rosstat
Primary crude oil refining in Russia
Crude oil refining depth in Russia
2005–2015, Mt
2000–2015, %
South
Far East
Siberia
Ural
Center
North West
Volga
20
40
60
80
100
2011 2012 2013 201520142011 2012 20142013 2015
Gasoline Diesel
Euro 3 and below Euro 4 Euro 5
0
20
40
60
80
100
201520142013201220112010
МON-76 (RON-80) RON-92 RON-95 RON-98
20052000 2008 2015 20052000 2008 2015 20052000 2008 2015
20
40
60
80
Gasoline Diesel Heating Oil
Russian Energy — 2015. Oil 22
Basic petroleum products output in Russia in 2015 decreased by 7 Mt (–3.6 %). The fall was mostly driven by heating oil output reduction — 6.8 Mt (–8.7 %). Diesel output declined by 1 Mt (1.3 %) while that of gasoline increased by 1 Mt. The share of RON-95 gasoline continues to grow (+12.7 p. p. during last five years). The share of Euro-5 motor fuels has shown considerable rise: up to 84.4% for gasoline and 73.2% for diesel.
Source: Ministry of Energy
Source: Rosstat
Source: Rosstat
Basic petroleum products output in Russia
Gasoline output structure in Russia
2000, 2005 and 2008–2015, Mt
2010–2015, %
Motor fuel output by emission standarts in Russia2011–2015, %
Moscow OblastYaroslavl OblastMoscow
Komi RepublicLeningrad OblastMurmansk OblastSt. Petersburg
Krasnodar KraiVolgograd OblastRostov Oblast
Republic of DagestanRepublic of North Ossetia-AlaniaStavropol Krai
Republic of BashkortostanRepublic of TatarstanNizhny Novgorod OblastSamara Oblast
Sverdlovsk OblastTyumen (exclusive of autonomous okrugs)Chelyabinsk Oblast
Krasnoyarsk KraiIrkutsk OblastKemerovo OblastNovosibirsk OblastOmsk Oblast
Primorsk KraiKhabarovsk Krai
Republic of Crimea
3815187
1521
14813181521113
1237678
1008
23880
593
133410819271677
1096581728
795654614767458
467736
316
Center
NorthWest
South
NorthCaucasus
Volga
Ural
Siberia
Far East
Crimea
23505651163
562881346987
3832488573
1836212
8141453562
1603
6461526
521
8699801256434505
5161201
99
176231
289
9844101323679
699628
360
000
413336
73165
1126
19
227363300
35111
24881286
4
Gasoline shipment Diesel shipment Heating oil shipmentShare of Federal District in total Russia output
Gasoline Diesel Heating oil
Individual regions performance
26,8% 23,4% 4,1%
11,0% 11,8% 32,4%
9,9% 14,5% 33,9%
3,1% 0,8% 0%
21,7% 17,7% 5,3%
9,0% 10,8% 0,8%
13,4% 14,5% 5,3%
4,2% 6,2% 18,2%
0,9% 0,3% 0%
Russian Energy — 2015. Oil 23
Source: Rosstat
Petroleum products shipment in Russian regions2015, kt
27,7
5,0
25,6
1,3
4,0
12,410
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Naphtha
Gasoline
Kerosene
Diesel fuel
Fuel oil
Other petroliumproducts
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20152014
Russia's share in OECD countries imports of petroleum products 2000-2015, %
7
9
11
13
15
20152014201320122011201020092008200720062005
50
100
150
200
50
100
150
200
250
300
Russian crude oil exports
Russian petroleum products exports
200520042003200220012000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20152014
200520042003200220012000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20152014
Far-abroad countries CIS countries
50
100
150
200
50
100
150
200
250
300
Russian crude oil exports
Russian petroleum products exports
200520042003200220012000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20152014
200520042003200220012000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20152014
Far-abroad countries CIS countries
Russian Energy — 2015. Oil 24
Source: Rosstat Source: IEA
Russian petroleum products exports to OECD countries2005–2015, Mt
Russian crude oil and petroleum products exports 2000–2015, Mt
In 2015, the export of oil to the OECD countries increased again. The growth was supported by the demand for motor gasoline, diesel oil and fuel oil, whereas the naphtha shipment to OECD countries fell.
Russian crude oil exports oil exports recorded the first growth since 2009 and amounted to 244.5 Mt (+21.1 Mt versus 2014). Exports of petroleum products also increased by 6.7 Mt and amounted to 171.5 Mt. Crude oil (90.6 %) and petroleum products (95.2 %) from Russia almost entirely went to far-abroad countries.
40
60
80
100
120
20152014201320122011201020092008200720062005
WTIBrent Urals OPEC oil basket
25
30
35
40
201620152014201320122011
MON-76 (RON-80) RON-92 (RON-93)
RON-95 and above Diesel
200
400
600
20152014201320122011201020092008
10
20
20152014201320122011201020092008
40
80
120
20152014201320122011201020092008
Turnover, mln rubles
Volume, mln t
Number of contracts, 1,000 units
Russian Energy — 2015. Oil 25
In 2015, the increasing oversupply in the global oil market brought down prices more than by half. Fearful of the loss of their market share, the OPEC member states refused to reduce their production, although
by doing that, they could have maintained higher global prices. Meanwhile, the oil producers in the USA, Canada and some other countries proved to be more resilient, than expected, towards low prices.
Gasoline prices increased in January 2016 on average by 1.6 rubles (year-on-year) or by 4.7 %. RON-95 gasoline showed the highest price growth — by 1.65 rubles. Diesel prices increased by 1.07 ruble (+3.1 %).
In 2015 SPIMEX demonstrated the first annual drop in petroleum products exchange trading performance since its launch in 2008. Turnover and trading volumes amounted to 496 mln rubles (–25 mln rubles versus 2014) and 15.9 Mt (–1.5 Mt) respectively, while the number of contracts recorded 101,500 units. This results from the stagnation of domestic motor fuels market and ruble devaluation. The leading exchange market participants include Rosneft (33.3 % of total sales), Gazprom Neft (16.2 %), LUKOIL (12.3 %) Gazprom (11.3 %) and Surgutneftegaz (10.2 %). RON-92 gasoline, summer diesel and RON-95 gasoline account for substantial volumes of exchange trading in petroleum products — 29.7 %, 18.2 % and 12.4 % respectively.
Source: SPIMEX
Source: Thomson Reuters Source: Rosstat
World oil prices Average motor fuel prices in Russia2005–2015, $/bbl
Jan 2011 – Jan 2016, rubles/l
Petroleum products exchange trading in Russia (SPIMEX)2008–2015
<5 5–10 10–15 15–20 >20 30 32 34 38 45 50 55
2
3
5
7
6
8
9
18
14
11
15
16
17
19
21
22
23
4
1
12
13
20
1024
25
2726
Russian Energy — 2015. Oil 26
Source: Rosstat
Average gasoline (RON-92) prices in Russia by regionRefining Capacity2015, rubles/lmtpy
OmskKirishiRyazanKstovoYaroslavlMoscowPermVolgogradAngarskUfaSyzranNovokuybyshevskKomsomolsk-on-AmurTyumenSalavatAchinskNizhnekamskSamaraSaratovOrskKhabarovskTuapseUkhtaKrasnodarNovoshakhtinsk
12345678910, 14, 18111213151617192021222324252627
<5 5–10 10–15 15–20 >20 0 7 11 17–6 5 9 15
2
3
5
7
6
8
9
18
14
11
15
16
17
19
21
22
23
4
1
12
13
20
1024
25
2726
Russian Energy — 2015. Oil 27
Source: Rosstat
Gasoline (RON-92) price change in Russia by regionRefining CapacityJanuary 2015 – January 2016, %mtpy
OmskKirishiRyazanKstovoYaroslavlMoscowPermVolgogradAngarskUfaSyzranNovokuybyshevskKomsomolsk-on-AmurTyumenSalavatAchinskNizhnekamskSamaraSaratovOrskKhabarovskTuapseUkhtaKrasnodarNovoshakhtinsk
12345678910, 14, 18111213151617192021222324252627
300
600
900
1200
1500
Crude oilproduction
Petroleumproducts output
Crude oil transport by pipeline
−20
−10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Crude oilproduction
Petroleumproducts output
Crude oil transport by pipeline
Russian Energy — 2015. Oil 28
Investment in Russian oil sector
Percentage change in oil sector investment
2010–2015 , bln rubles
2011–2015 (year-on-year), %
Source: Rosstat
Investment in Russian oil sector in 2015 exceeded the level of 2014, but the growth was fueled only by crude oil production (+342.1 bln rubles), while investment in petroleum products output and pipeline transportation of crude oil decreased by 8.8 and 14.9 bln rubles respectively. This results mostly from significant ruble devaluation: drop in ruble costs of crude oil production and rise in dollar costs of imported equipment needed for refineries modernization.
NATURAL GASRussia in 2015: decrease in production and domestic consumption and increase in exports
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Iran Russia Qatar Turkmenistan US Saudi Arabia UAE Venezuela Nigeria
18,0
18,5
19,0
19,5
20,0
2015201020052000
Russian Energy — 2015. Natural Gas 30
As new gas fields had been discovered in Iran, Turkmenistan and USA, Russia’s share in the world gas reserves has significantly shrank in 2005-2015, although it slowly went up from 2011 to 2015.
Source: BP
Countries with the largest natural gas reserves 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, tcm
Russia’s share in the world natural gas reserves2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, %
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
IranRussia Qatar CanadaUS China Norway
15
17
19
21
23
25
20152014201320122011201020092008200720062005
Russian Energy — 2015. Natural Gas 31
Russia’s share in global gas production fell due to the increase in gas production in the USA, Qatar and Iran. In 2012, it lost its lead in gas production to the USA, where the increase was provided thanks to the shale gas. China has also increased its annual gas production, having overtaken Norway in 2013. Iran overtook Qatar in gas production in 2014.
Source: BP
Top natural gas producing countries2005-2015, bcm
Russia’s share in the world natural gas production2005-2015, %
5
15
25
35
2014201320122011201020092008200720062005
2014201320122011201020092008200720062005
200
300
400
600
700
800
77,9
106,6
59,3
44,8
56,8 Turkmenistan
Algeria
Netherlands
Canada
Norway
118,9 Qatar
187,9 Russia
500
100
0
Russian Energy — 2015. Natural Gas 32
Source: IEA
Source: IEA
Russia and other countries in world exports of natural gas
The share of LNG in the world gas trade
2005-2014, bcm2005-2014, %
Urengoy
Bovanenkovo
Shtokman
Yamburg
Astrakhan
Zapolyarnoye
Kovyktinskoye
Kharasaveyskoye
Kruzenshternskoye
Yuzhno-Tambeyskoye
Yuzhno-Russkoye
Severo-Tambeyskoye
Kharampur
Chayandinskoye
Orenburg
Medvezhye
5333430439393109
308723531563142213491003862862814
708664564
Chayandinskoye
Kovyktinskoye
Astrakhan
Yuzhno-Tambeyskoye
Yamburg
Medvezhye
Bovanenkovo
Kharasaveyskoye
Kruzenshternskoye
Urengoy
ZapolyarnoyeYuzhno-Russkoye
Severo-Tambeyskoye
Orenburg
Shtokman
Kharampur
Russian Energy — 2015. Natural Gas 33
In 2015 Russia`s natural gas reserves (ABC 1) amount to 50.2 tcm, which is one percent more than in 2014. The largest gas fields are located in Western Siberia oil and gas bearing province. The growth in gas reserves was provided by gas fields in the Yamal Peninsula (Bovanenkovo, Kharasaveyskoye, Yuzhno-Tambeyskoye), Eastern Siberia (Kovyktinskoye), Russian Far East (Chayandinskoye) and on the Arctic Shelf (Shtokman, Kruzenshternskoye). In European Russia the main gas reserves are concentrated in Astrakhan field and Orenburg field.
Source: Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of the Russian Federation
Russia s largest natural gas fields: reserves2015, bcm
Lunskoye
AstrakhanOrenburg
YamburgYurkharovskoye
Medvezhye
Bovanenkovo
Urengoy
ZapolyarnoyeYuzhno-Russkoye
Beregovoye
Zapolyarnoye
Urengoy
Yamburg
Bovanenkovo
Yurkharovskoye
Yuzhno-Russkoye
Lunskoye
Orenburg
Beregovoye
Astrakhan
Medvezhye
117,5
90,6
75,3
22,8
38,4
25,1
16,4
16,9
10,8
11,7
12,2
97,9
85,5
62,8
42,8
39,0
25,0
16,6
16,3
11,2
11,1
10,4
Russian Energy — 2015. Natural Gas 34
About 80 % of Russia`s natural gas production is carried out in the Nadym-Pur-Taz region, Yamalo-Nenets AO. In 2014, three gas fields — Zapolyarnoye, Urengoy, Yamburg — accounted for more than 40 % of country`s gas production.
In 2012, gas production was started at the Bovanenkovo field (Yamal Peninsula), and it accounted 42.8 bcm in 2014. It is expected that to 2020 Bovanenkovo will be the largest gas producing field in Russia. Positive production dynamics also featured on Yurkharovskoye field and Beregovoye field.
Source: Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of the Russian Federation
Major producing gas fields in Russia2013-2014, bcm
2013 2014
production domestic consumption export
669 201
470
194
460
211
457
200
444
653 668633187
458
640
In 2015, Russia`s natural gas and associated petroleum gas production amounted to 633.4 bcm, which is 0.9 % less than in 2014. The decrease was caused by significant reduction of natural gas consumption in Russia. In 2010-2015, the gas supply to the domestic market decreased by 24.8 bcm, or by 5.3 %.
In 2015, Russia`s natural gas exports increased by 7.1 % year on year to 200 bcm. Natural gas imports of the major importers of Russian gas remained relatively stable. A significant decrease was recorded in supplies to the Ukraine.
Source: Rosstat, Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation
Natural gas in Russia: production, consumption and exports2011-2015, bcm
501 33 28 20 11 41
Yamalo-Nenets Khanty-Mansi Sakhalin Orenburg Krasnoyarsk Others
In 2015, 79.2 % of natural gas production in Russia was provided by Yamalo-Nenets AO, which is 1.1 pp lower than in 2014. In 2010-2014, YNAO share in Russia`s gas production was 80-83 %. In 2015 to 2014 gas production significantly increased in Krasnoyarsk region and Sakha. The largest drop was observed in YNAO (–2 %, or –11.6 bcm).
Source: Rosstat
Russia’s natural gas production by region2015, bcm
Russian Energy — 2015. Natural Gas 35
51,6
17
7,912,5 9,5
66,0
17,0 18,812,2
1,7
23,6
68,8
42,3
52,0
2012
2013
2014
2015
2012
2013
2014
2015
2012
2013
2014
2015
2012
2013
2014
2015
2012
2013
2014
2015
2012
2013
2014
2015
2012
2013
2014
2015
Novatek Rosneft Lukoil Gazprom Neft Surgutneftegaz Arktikgaz Others
Source: Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of the Russian Federation, CDU TEK
Independent gas producers in Russia
Gazprom
Gazprom
Others
Others
432
208
406
229
35,9
Production, 2012-2015, bcm
64,167,5
32,5
Russian Energy — 2015. Natural Gas 36
Russia`s largest natural gas producer is Gazprom, which provided 64.1 % of country`s gas production in 2015, and 67.5 % in 2014. There is a tendency for an increase in the share of independent gas producers in Russia: from 16 % in 2007 to 36 % in 2015.
Independent gas producers increased production volumes. Leaders are Rosneft and Arktikgaz.
Source: Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation
Russia’s natural gas production by company2014-2015, bcm
2014-2015, %
2014
2014
2015
2015
Electricity production
Industry
Residential
Gas transportation
Others
261,958,9
35,8
66,0119,6
542
29,0 33,7 33,927,628,8
63,2 64,4 65,1 65,765,4
200
400
600
800
US EU Russia Iran China Japan Canada
Russian Energy — 2015. Natural Gas 37
In 2014, the production of electricity and heat energy provided 48.3 % of Russia`s natural gas consumption, which is 3.5 pp less than in 2013. Gas consumption decreased by 6.4 % in these two sectors, by 2,2 % in industry and increased by 0.1 % in residential sector. In 2015, investments for Russian regions gasification decreased by 4 %,
and Russia’s gasification level increased by 0.3 pp compared with 2014 and reached 65.7 %. The main reason is the increase in gas debts.
Over the last decade, the demand for gas in Russia ncreased at a slower rate in comparison with the global one. In the USA, the increase of consumption of shale gas has squeezed the coal out of the domestic market into the global one, which has led to the shrinking shares of other gas suppliers elsewhere. In 2015, overall demand for gas in the European Union exceeded Russia’s domestic gas consumption.
Source: BP
Source: Rosstat
Source: Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation
Source: Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation
Russia s natural gas consumption by sector Investment for Russian regions gasification
Russia’s gasification level
Natural gas consumption in the top natural gas consuming countries
2014, mtce
2011–2015, bln rubles
2011–2015, %
2005-2015, bcm
2015201420132012201120102009
13,414,4 14,8 14,5 14,4 14,5
6,6
0,45
World
Russia 0,34
21,3 n/a
2008
0,33
25,6
2009
0,35
30,4
2010
0,37
35,0
2011
0,39
36,9
2012 2015
0,41
n/a
2014
0,40
39,3
2013
70%79%
25%18%
2%1%
2%1%
1%1%
Japan Republicof Korea
ChinaTaiwan Others
100
300
500
700
20152014201320122011201020092008200720062005
Europe (Russian gas) Japan US (Henry Hub)
In 2015, the gas price in the major markets fell by 30-40 % compared to the previous year. The causes for the falling gas prices were decreasing oil prices, warm winters in the USA and Europe and fierce competition inside the industry — with other gas producers, as well as competition with producers of other energy resources, such as coal and renewable ones.
Russian Energy — 2015. Natural Gas 38
Russia`s LNG production and exports is carried out on single plant on Sakhalin Island, with a capacity of 9.6 mtpa. LNG is exported by sea to the Asia-Pacific countries, mainly to Japan.
There are LNG plants projects in Russia. The plant on the Yamal Peninsula is under construction, with an installed capacity of 16.5 mtpa, start at 2017-2018. It is also planned to implement projects in Vladivostok and the Baltic Sea (Gazprom) and Sakhalin Island (Rosneft).
In 2015, Russia’s share in the global LNG market was 4 %.
Russia`s CNG consumption is 450 mcm, or about one percent of the world total. The natural gas consumption in transport is a priority of Russia`s gas industry development. State subsidies for regions are aimed to stimulate the growth of CNG consumption. Gazprom plays the main role in development of the Russian NGV market. Other participants are Rosneft and Novatek.
Source: IMFSource: Sakhalin Energy
Source: Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation
Source: Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation, IEA
LNG production and exports in Russia CNG consumption in road transport
Share of Russia s LNG exports by destination
The world prices of natural gas
2009-2015, bcm 2008-2015, bcm
2014-2015, %
2005-2015, $/1000 cubic meters
2013 20152014
42,7
27,0
18,8
23,8
7,8
10,1
9,29,7
40,0
Germany
Turkey
Belarus
Italy
Ukraine
Japan11,2 United Kingdom
KazakhstanFrance
Others
0
10
20
30
40
50
Russian Energy — 2015. Natural Gas 39
In recent years, Russia`s gas exports by regions has not changed significantly: European countries were the main customers. In 2009, Russia started to export LNG to Asia-Pacific, mainly to Japan. In 2015, LNG exports was about 7 % of total Russian gas exports.
Source: Federal Customs Service of Russia, Sakhalin Energy
Russia s natural gas exports by destination2013-2015, bcm
COALAmid worsening export conditions coal production in Russia was supported by a slight growth of domestic demand
237,3
157,0
114,5
76,4
60,6
40,5
33,9
26,6%
17,6%
12,8%
8,6%
6,8%
4,5%
3,8%
US
Russia
China
Australia
India
Germany
Ukraine
1000
2000
3000
4000
China US India Australia Indonesia Russia South Africa
1
2
3
4
5
2014201320122011201020092008200720062005
Russian Energy — 2015. Coal 42
Russia holds the second place in coal reserves in the world (after US). It possesses around 18 % of world reserves.
Source: IEA
Source: BP
Source: IEA
Countries with largest coal reserves
Top coal producing countries
Russia’s share in the world coal production 2015, bln t
2005-2014, mln t
2005-2014, %
In 2014 for the first time since the beginning of the century world production of coal decreased (by less than 1 %). Considerable reduction of coal production took place in China. China is optimising its coal industry which leads to
large-scale closure of coal mines. India actively expanded coal production with the focus on domestic market (energy poverty reduction) and Australia with the focus on external market (expansion of market share).
Russia maintained its 6th rank among top coal producing counties with a share of 4,5% of world total.
Kansk-Achinsk Basin
Minusinsk Basin
Donets Basin
Pechora Basin
South Yakutia Basin
Irkutsk Basin
Kuznetsk Basin
79,3
53,4
7,6
7,2
6,5
5,0
4,5
31,5
40,7%
27,4%
3,9%
3,7%
3,3%
2,6%
2,3%
16,2%
Kansk-Achinsk Basin
Kuznetsk Basin
Irkutsk Basin
Pechora Basin
Donets Basin
South Yakutia Basin
Minusinsk Basin
Оther
50
100
150
200
250
OtherDonetsBasin
PechoraBasin
Kansk-AchinskBasin
KuznetskBasin
Russian Energy — 2015. Coal 43
There are 22 coal basins and 129 coal deposits in Russia. The geographic distribution of coal reserves is enequal. Over two thirds of proven reserves are concentrated within two basins: Kansk-Achinsk basin in Krasnoyarsk Krai and Kemerovo Oblast (brown coal) and Kuznetsk basin in Kemerovo Oblast (hard coal). In 2014 explored coal reserves in Russia increased by 0,5 %.
In 2015 coal production in Russia reached 373 mln t, which is 4 % higher than in 2014. 72 % of coal was produced at open-pit mines (in the last few years this share was quite stable).
The rise of coal production was observed in all largest basins (Kuznetsk basin (+2 %), Kansk-Achinsk basin (+6 %), Pechora basin (+11 %)) with the exception of Donets basin (–11 %%). Kuznetsk coal basin remains the center of Russian coal production (58 % of total).
Source: Ministry of Natural Resources and Ecology of the Russian Federation
Explored coal reserves in Russia by main basin
Coal production in Russia by main basin
01.01.2015, bln t 2010-2015, mln t
83,683,983,884,584,583,5
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
9,99,69,99,49,5
10,8
4,24,03,84,03,73,9
2,32,52,52,1
2,31,8
OtherFar EastSiberia North West
50
100
150
200
250
300
20152014201320122011201020092008200720062005
Coking coal production Upgrading of coking coal Steam coal production* Upgrading of steam coal*
Russian Energy — 2015. Coal 44
Coal production in Russia in concentrated in Siberian Federal District (84 % of the total). The largest coal producing federal subjects of the Russian Federation are situated there: Kemerovo Oblast (58 % of the total),
Krasnoyarsk Krai (11 %) and Zabaykalsky Krai (5 %). In the Far East coal production is notable in Sakha (Yakutia) Republic (4 % of the total) and in the North-West in Komi Republic (4 %).
Russia produces predominantly hard coal (over 80 % of the total in 2015). A share of coking coal in total production made up 23 %.
Almost all coking coal in Russia is upgraded, upgrading level of steam coal is only 28 %. Still in 2015 the latter grew (+5,9 mln t) while the former fell slightly (–0,3 mln t). Total volume of coal processing in Russia (including mechanical sorting) reached 178,3 mln t (+3 %).
Coal production in Russia by region
Coal production and upgrading (at plants) in Russia by type
2010-2015, %
2005-2015, mln t
Source: Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation
Source: Ugol Magazine
* with import
20
40
60
80
100
JSC «SUEK» JSC «Coal Company «Kuzbassrazrezugol»
JSC Holding Company «SDS-Ugol»
JSC «Mechel Mining» «Evraz» JSC «Russian Coal» JSC «VorkutaUgol» Company «Vostsibugol» LLC (En+ Group)
Sibuglemet Holding LLC JSC «Kuzbasskaya Toplivnaya Company»
97,898,9
44,544,5
30,029,723,223,2 20,621,8
14,413,6 13,211,4 13,012,1 10,910,8 11,010,6
Hard coal Brown coal
30
60
90
120
150
55,966,3
2,0 3,7
Russian Energy — 2015. Coal 45
Investment in Russian coal industry goes predominantly to hard coal (up to 95 % of the total). In 2015 it decreased again — to 70,1 bln rubles. From 2012 to 2015 investment to coal industry fell by almost 45 %. Financial restrictions continued to constrain realization of investment programs of Russian companies. Still the decline rate slowed to 6 %.
Russian coal industry is dominated by large coal mining and iron and steel holding companies.Top-10 companies contributed to around 58 % of total industry production. Almost all of them managed to increase production in 2015 with the exception of industry leaders. Largest producer of thermal coal JSC «SUEK» and largest producer of metallurgical coal «Evraz» decreased production slightly.
Russian investment in coal industry
Largest coal producers in Russia
2010-2015, bln rubles
2014-2015, mln t
Source: Federal State Statistics Service
Source: Ugol Magazine
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
China India US Germany Russia Japan South Africa
1
2
3
4
5
2014201320122011201020092008200720062005
Russian Energy — 2015. Coal 46
Coal remains the second largest energy source in the world (after oil). Its share in total primary energy consumption amounts to 30 %. In 2014 consumption of coal in the world fell (by approximately 1 %) breaking upward trend since 2000. It was the result of lower demand for steam coal alongside with higher demand for coking coal (but the share of the latter in total coal consumption was only 13 %).
China (49 % of coal consumption in the world) made the largest contribution to negative
demand dynamics. Coal demand contraction in China was influenced by several factors: economic slowdown, structural transformation, lowering energy intensity of GDP, energy balance diversification and climate policy developments. With active spread of coal generation India in 2014 surpassed US and became the second largest coal consumer in the world. Coal prospects in US are constrained by shale revolution and strengthening of climate policy.
Source: IEA
Top coal consuming countries Russia’s share in the world coal consumption 2005-2014, mln t
2005-2014, %
Source: IEA
Russia continued to rank 5th among top coal consuming countries with a share of 2,5 % of world total.
50
15
100
150
200
250
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20142013 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20142013 2015
11,6
114,2
36,0
23,4
Imports share in consumption
Supplies to population
23,9 Other*
Power plants
Coking plants
12
Steam coal Coking coal
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20152014201320122011201020092008200820062005
Russian Energy — 2015. Coal 47
In 2015 coal consumption in Russia demonstrated a slight growth — up to 197,5 mln t (+1,3 % as compared with 2014). Russian companies increased coal supplies to domestic market up to 174,6 mln t (+3 %) so that it accounted for 54 % of total supplies of Russian coal. Russian coal imports (mainly from Kazakhstan — 96 %) fell by 9 %. Imports contribution to coal consumption continued to decrease as well. In 2015 it didn’t exceed 12 %. Electricity power industry is the largest consumer of coal in Russia. It supported consumption growth: power stations expanded purchases of coal by 7 %. Among other large consumers are coking plants (–9 % of demand) and population (demand unchanged).
In 2015 average domestic coal prices in Russia grew (on the background of ruble depreciation to US dollar). Steam coal prices increased by 4 % and coking coal prices — by 31 %.
Source: CDU TEK
Source: Federal State Statistics Service
* Iron and Steel Industry, Cement Industry, Russian Railways, etc.
Coal consumption in Russia Average domestic coal prices in Russia2005-2015, mln t (supply to domestic market and imports)
2005-2015, rubles/t
37,9
21,7
16,2
9,09,8
10,2
4,7
16,4
Other
South Korea
Japan
Ukraine
17,2 UK
TurkeyNetherlands
Poland
6,6 Taiwan 6,5 Germany
China
2014 2015
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Russian Energy — 2015. Coal 48
Structure of Russia’s coal exports by destination2014-2015, mln t, total (hard coal (98 % of the total) and brown coal (2 %))
Structure of Russian coal exports was significantly affected by the contraction of purchases from China. In 2014 China used to be the principal destination. In 2015 export of coal from Russia to China fell by almost 40 %. UK, the second principal destination (in terms of volume) in 2014, cut purchases as well (–29 %). Is was partially compensated by increased
supplies to South Korea (+26 %) which made this country the principal destination of Russian coal exports in 2015. Besides Russia increased coal exports to Japan (+8 %) and Netherlands (+33 %).
Russian export of coal is dominated by steam coal (87 % of the total).
Source: Federal Customs Service of Russia
0
100
200
300
400
500
CanadaSouth AfricaColombiaUSRussiaAustraliaIndonesia
Asian marker priceUS Central Appalachian coal spot price index Northwest Europe marker price
Japan coking coal import CIF priceJapan steam coal import CIF price
50
100
150
200
250
20152014201320122011201020092008200720062005
7
9
11
13
15
2014201320122011201020092008200720062005
Russian Energy — 2015. Coal 49
In 2014 international coal trade continued to grow though with a slower pace (less than 1 %). Indonesia maintained its position as the largest exporter of coal in the world (in terms of physical tonnes) with a share of 30 %. At the same time in terms of energy content it was overtaken by Australia.
The drop of coal prices observed from 2011 continued in 2015. Excess supply and China’s weakening demand put downward pressure on coal prices in the world. For example, coal prices in Japan (either for coking or for steam coal) lost 18 % in 2015. Regional coal prices almost converged in 2014 so that «Asian premium» diminished. In 2015 marker coal prices in Asia, Europe and Northern America fell correspondingly by 19 %, 25 % and 22 %.
Russia held the 3rd position among top coal exporting countries with a share of 11 % of world total.
Source: IEASource: IEA
Source: BP
Top coal exporting countries
World coal prices
Russia’s share in the world coal exports2005-2014, mln t
2005-2015, $/t
2005-2014, %
PETROCHEMICALSIn 2015 there was increase in production and decline in imports of basic polymers in Russia
19,1
LPG production Naphta production Ethane production
20152014201320122011
0,712,1
20,0
0,813,1
22,6
0,713,9
26,0
0,816,0
27,3
0,711,2
201520142013201220112010
1,4 1,41,5 1,5
1,31,4
Russian Energy — 2015. Petrochemicals 52
Production and refining of petrochemical feedstocks in Russia grew in 2015, especially naphta.
After previous year decrease synthetic rubber production grew 9 % in 2015, although not achieving 2013 level. Such stagnation is caused by international rubber market fierce competition and decline in Russian automobile industry.
Source: Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation
Source: Rosstat
Production of petrochemical feedstocks in Russia
Synthetic rubber production in Russia
Petrochemical feedstocks refining
2011-2015, mln t
2010-2015, mln t
2011-2015, mln t
6
8
10
12
20152014201320122011
40
60
80
100
2015201420132012
Synthetic rubber Polymers of styrenePolymers of ethylene PolypropylenePolymers of vinyl chloride or halogenated olefins
2013201220112010
1
2
3
5
4
7
8
2014 2015
6
2,7
1,8
0,5
0,8
Plastics in primary forms, other
Polymers of vinyl chloride or other halogenated olefins
1,3 Polymers of propylene and other olefins
Polymers of ethylene
Polymers of styrene
Plastics in primary forms production in Russia demonstrated a 13% growth in 2015. The highest increase (23 %) appeared in polypropylene production (also showed significant export growth). This is due to the positive impact of ruble devaluation and a few big projects implemented in the industry lately.
Source: Rosstat
Source: Rosstat
Plastics production in primary forms in Russia2010-2015, mln t
Prices of petrochemical products grew 15-30% in 2015, which is also due to export reorientation and domestic supply decrease.
Average annual producers prices of some petrochemical products2012-2015, thousand rubles/t
Russian Energy — 2015. Petrochemicals 53
201520142013201220112010
97
123 125138
169
54
2010200920082007
50
100
150
200
2011 2012 2013 2014
87,3
25,4
20,0
21,9
Polymers of ethylene
Synthetic rubber
Polymers of styrene
Polymers of vinyl chloride or halogenated olefins
Russian Energy — 2015. Petrochemicals 54
International trade of polymers of ethylene growth continued in 2014 — 4 % to 87 bln USD, while other main traded petrochemical products showed decline or stagnation.
In 2015 investment in Russian petrochemical industry increased by 22 % as compared with 2014 and totaled 169 bln rubles.
Source: Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation
Source: UNCTAD
International trade volumes of some petrochemical products
Russian investments in petrochemical industry
2007-2014, bln USD 2010-2015, bln rubles
production
Polymers of styrene Polymers of vinyl chloride or other halogenated olefins
Polymers of propylene and other olefins
Synthetic rubber
exportimport
estimated consumption
−6%
0%
−33%−19%
production
export
import
estimated consumption
–12%
19%
−48%
93%
production
export
import
estimated consumption
3%
23%
−10%
107%
production
export
import
estimated consumption
2%
9%
−3%
13%
2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Polymers of ethylene
production
export
import
estimated consumption
3%
12%
−21%
−4%
2014 2015
Russian Energy — 2015. Petrochemicals 55
In Russian petrochemical industry a trend of import substitution is evolving. In 2015 Russia continued to reduce imports of large-tonnage polymers and to raise their exports (with the exeption of
polyethylene and polystyrene). Nevertheless import dependance for certain items is still considerable. Synthetic Rubber production stays most export-oriented.
Source: Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, Federal Customs Service of Russia
Change in polymers production and consumption in Russia2014-2015, kt and %
ELECTRICIT YTotal electricity consumption in Russia decreased by 0.4% in 2015
50
100
150
200
300
250
27
251
UES of Russia, nuclear energy
Russia, total
48 UES of Russia, hydropower
160 UES of Russia, fuel energy
201020092008 2011 2012 2013 20152014
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20152014
4,1
0,5
2,9
2,9
3,3
1,0
2,6
2,7
1,8
2,9
5,0
1,2 1,3
2
4
6
8
except CDA CDA
Russian Energy — 2015. Electricity 58
Net additional capacity in the UES of Russia amounted to 2.9 GW in 2015 (growth of 1 % to 2014), from 2008 to 2015-24.7 GW (11.7 %). Compared to previous years, the rate of capacity growth is slowed down.
The installed capacity of power plants of UES of Russia in 2015 grew mainly due to fuel power by the Capacity Delivery Agreement (62 % of all entries), the rest of the growth was provided by nuclearpower (0,9 GW) other fuel power, hydropower and RES
Installed capacity in Russia
Additional power capacity in UES of Russia in 2014: total and by the Capacity Delivery Agreement (CDA)
2008-2015, GW
2008-2015, GW
Source: SO-UPS
Source: Rosstat, SO-UPS
200
400
600
800
1 000
346
186
73
382
266
102
466
298
102
406
203
69
406
282
144
2010 2011 2012 2013 2015
525
264
75
2014
Generation, transmission and distribution of electricity
Generation
Transmission
Distribution and trade
–228
–124
–95
–24
–25,2
–23
–32
–12
2015-2014,bln rubels
2015/2014, %
Russian Energy — 2015. Electricity 59
Noticeably decrease in investment in electricity: in addition to the economic crisis, the decline in investment can be explained by a decrease of the intensity of CDA program. Also the excess supply of capacity impacted on dynamics of investments.
Investments in generation, transmission and distribution of electricity in Russia**
Change in investments in electricity in fixed capital of Russia
2010-2015, bln rubles
2015 in comparison to 2014*
Source: Rosstat
Source: Rosstat
* 2010-2013 — data does not include Crimean FD, 2014-2015 — included Crimean FD
** Investments in fixed capital without small enterprises and statistically unobservable investments
* Investments in fixed capital without small enterprises and statistically unobservable
distribution and trade
transmission
generation
1
2
4
5
Industry Agriculture Services Transport Households
3
6 % 1,2 11 % 1,4 13 % 1,3 2 % 1,0 7 % 2,3
1,6
2,3
2015/2014, % 2015/2010, ratio
4,1
2004 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2004 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2004 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2004 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2004 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2,3
4,0
consumers price index price for industry price for households
5
10
15
20
25
30
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20152014
price ratio (industry/households), ratio
0,8
0,9
1,1
1,0
1,2
2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152005
Russian Energy — 2015. Electricity 60
Average electricity price by consumers (nominal prices)
Electricity price for households exceeds the price for industry
2010-2015, rubles/kWh
2004-2015, year by year, %
Electricity price for households exceeds the price for industry
Source: Rosstat
Source: Rosstat
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Russia Center North West South North Caucasus Volga Ural Siberia Far East Crimea
-10
-5
0
5
10
UES of Russia,total
Volga Ural North-West South Siberia EastCentral
Russian Energy — 2015. Electricity 61
Electricity consumption growth in the UES of Russia
Industrial Production Index in Russia and federal districs
2008-2015, year by year, %
2008-2015, year by year, %
Total electricity consumption in Russia in 2015 has decreased. The main reasons of that are economic crisis and electricity consumption decline in industrial regions
Source: SO-UPS
Source: Rosstat
Prepared by the Analytical Center for the Government of the Russian Federation
www.ac.gov.ru