Russia, Ukraine and the European gas system - eca.europa.eu · Ukraine: major import...
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© OECD/IEA 2015 © OECD/IEA 2015 Russia, Ukraine and the European gas system International Energy Agency Laszlo Varro Head of Gas, Coal and Power Markets
Transcript of Russia, Ukraine and the European gas system - eca.europa.eu · Ukraine: major import...
© OECD/IEA 2015 © OECD/IEA 2015
Russia, Ukraine and the European gas system International Energy Agency
Laszlo Varro Head of Gas, Coal and Power Markets
© OECD/IEA 2015
WEO NPS 2035 without increasing gas imports to the EU: 120000 windmills to compensate for
declining coal generation
PV on 52 million rooftops to compensate for decommissioned reactors
5 times the current EU biogas production to compensate for declining gas upstream
Reducing dependency on Russian gas: running faster to stand still
© OECD/IEA 2015
It is the building sector
© OECD/IEA 2015
Renewable electricity – does it replace coal or gas?
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10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
90 000
100 000
Prod
uctio
n, M
W
Hours
Coal surplus capacity Coal
RES NG based CHP production
Nuclear Load
Renewables and coal in Germany at different load levels
© OECD/IEA 2015
Shale gas in Europe – the social licence to operate
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North African supplies – is a rapid ramp up likely?
The Algerian army deployed at the In Amenas gas field during hostage taking by extremists, 2013
The El Arish gas pipeline after a militant attack, Egypt 2013
© OECD/IEA 2015
In need of a hero Even if it goes to
Asia, it helps Europe
It will have destination, but not volume flexibility
It might drive out non-Russian sources rather than Gazprom
© OECD/IEA 2015
Bottlenecks limit the ability of LNG to replace Russian gas
© OECD/IEA 2015
Ukraine gas transit is decreasing but still vital – Nord Stream only alternative with excess capacity
36
31 6
17
14 18
34
29
Azerbaijan 6
Iran 9
26 33
36 19 4
Major physical flows in 2014 in bcm
LNG 5
LNG 1 LNG 8
3
Russian gas exports to Europe & share of Ukrainian transit
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10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Direct exports toFinland, Latvia,Estonia
via Ukraine
via NordStream
via Belarus
via Blue stream
Share of Ukrainiantransit
© OECD/IEA 2015
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
EU
R/M
Wh
next winter - next summer next winter - MA
Futures markets price business as usual in Ukraine
Implied value of filling gas storage for the next season
© OECD/IEA 2015
2013 and 2014: decreasing gas consumption in Ukraine, yet larger potential
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5
10
15
20
25
Industry District heating Technical gas andlosses
Households Public organisations(hospitals, schools,
administrations)
bcm
2013
2014
Evolution of Ukraine’s gas consumption by sector, 2013-2014
© OECD/IEA 2015
Ukraine: major import diversification in 2014 as Gazprom not competitive, reversal in 2015?
Evolution of Ukraine’s imports by source (prices and volumes, 2014-2015) and comparison with German border price
With the prolongation of the winter interim agreement and the lower contractual oil-linked gas price, Gazprom’s supplies are now competitive again, so that Ukraine can tap
both Russian and reverse flow gas to fill up its storages
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
0
100
200
300
400
500
600bcm USD/kcm
Imports fromGazprom
Reverseimports fromEU
Sale priceGazprom
Averageimport costEU reverse
AverageGermanborder price
Source: Naftogaz, Ukrtransgaz, Gazprom, IMF
