Rural Futures – Meeting Policy and Market Challenges:

Secure Food Supply and Market Integrity

Kevin Steel, Principal Adviser, Strategy Development

24 September 2009

• World Grain Supply – Peaks mid 1980’s– Steady declining trend

• World population– 1960 3 billion– 2010 6.5 billion– 2040 9 billion

Secure Food Supply?After Cribb 2009 – The Coming Famine: The Risk to Global Food Security

• Climate change

• Water scarcity

• Land scarcity – Urban encroachment on arable area– Land degradation/desertification– Peak land??

• Nutrient Scarcity– Peak phosphorus??

Challenges to Secure Food Supply?After Cribb 2009 – The Coming Famine: The Risk to Global Food Security

• Strong negative trend in the average annual public R & D spend

• Strong negative trend in growth rate of developing country annual average crop yields

• Trend to increasing droughtiness, extreme weather events and pests

• Fisheries collapse – the maximum sustainable wild fisheries capture from the worlds oceans has probably been reached

Global Futures?After Cribb 2009 – The Coming Famine: The Risk to Global Food Security

• To double global food production with:

– Half the present available water

– Far smaller productive land area

– Little or no fossil fuel

– Scarce and very costly fertilisers

– More droughts and heightened climatic uncertainty

The Global Challenge?After Cribb 2009 – The Coming Famine: The Risk to Global Food Security

• In a global sense New Zealand and Scotland cannot feed the world

• Issue for New Zealand – “food security” or “economic security through food”

• New Zealand’s economic future is strongly linked to the production and export of safe and sustainable food to international markets

• Drive to generate greater output and value from the natural resource base to pay our way on the world creates pressure on the environment

Secure Food Supply – A New Zealand Context?

• Focus for the Future?– Food production with integrated safety, quality and environmental

integrity• Requires;

– focus on innovation and value– win/win solutions that maximise output efficiency while minimising

environmental externalities– critical review, and adjustment, of current institutions and approaches– ensuring people capability is fit for purpose– widespread culture of delivering world’s best practice

• Challenges to science, the environment and farm management• Underpinned by the technology transfer system

Food Production and Environmental Integrity

• Current value of exports $11 billion – 27% merchandised export income• Any forecast of long term economic growth includes significant growth in dairy production and value• Economic growth from three broad sources

– Conversion of land from other uses – Increasing productivity – more milk from the current herd and

more cost effective production– Increasing the value of processed product

• Challenges to science, the environment and farm management• Underpinned by the technology transfer system

Dairy and the Economic Growth Agenda

The Technology Transfer Problem

Pure/Basic Research

Applied Research

Communication to a Wide Audience

Demonstrate Relevance

Raise Interest

Fit/Integrate into farming Business System

Apply Technology

Refine Technology

Routine Management

Monitoring & Evaluation

CRIs: AgResearch; Plant & Food Research; Landcare Research; Scion

Fertiliser Companies; Seed Companies; Technology Companies, e.g. Gallaghers

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Universities/Wananga: Massey; Lincoln; Canterbury; Waikato; Auckland; Te Wananga o Raukawa

ITOs; ITPS, OTEPS, PTEs, REAPs

Consulting Services: PGG Wrigthson; etc

Farmers, Growers

Consulting ServicesCRIs

Universities

Internalised Farmer/Grower (have own science &/or extension capabilities): e.g., Landcorp; Wilcox; Balle; Leaderbrand; Watties; Turners & Growers

InternalisedFarmer/Grower

Commodity Funded Industry Orgs funding or delivering extension activity: e.g., Dairy NZ; Meat & Wool NZ; FAR; NZ Winegrowers; Deer NZ

OVERVIEW OF NZ TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER SYSTEM – FUNCTIONS & INSTITUTIONS

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Tech Consolidation’ Commercialisation& Production

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Media Media

Young Farmers

Fed. Farmers

Fed. Farmers

Local & Central Govt..InternalisedFarmer/Grower

Govt.

Processors

Processors

Processors

Commodity Funded Industry Orgs funding or delivering extension activity: e.g., Dairy NZ; Meat & Wool NZ; FAR; NZ Winegrowers; Deer NZ