Running for President
Transcript of Running for President
Running for President…
• In 1828, Andrew Jackson made one of the first
“campaign tours” of a presidential candidate
• Prior to that year, it was the custom of candidates to
hold themselves aloof from the campaign…
• It was considered “undignified” to aggressively pursue
the office.
• No incumbent President campaigned overtly for himself
before Teddy Roosevelt did during the election of 1904.
• The campaign process now
begins two years in advance of
the General Election
• Contemporary candidates
aggressively seek their party’s
nomination and the Presidency.
There are two separate and distinct
phases to the Presidential
Campaign…
1. Party Nomination
(Primaries and Caucuses)
2. General Election
(Electoral College)
Presidential Candidate
Nominating Process:
Party Primaries and Caucuses;
Delegates and Super-Delegates;
and more…
• In recent decades, the presidential
nominees of the two major political
parties have emerged during state-
by-state primary elections and
caucuses.
2012 Primary and Caucus schedule:
• January 3, 2012 Iowa (caucus)
• January 10, 2012 New Hampshire (primary)
• January 21, 2012 South Carolina (primary)
• January 31, 2012 Florida (primary)
• February 4, 2012 Nevada (caucus)
• February 4–11, 2012 Maine (caucus)
• February 7, 2012 Colorado (caucus) Minnesota (caucus)
• February 28, 2012 Arizona (primary) Michigan (primary)
• March 3, 2012 Washington (caucus)
• March 6, 2012 (Super Tuesday)
Alaska (caucus) Georgia (primary)
Idaho (caucus) Massachusetts (primary)
North Dakota (caucus) Oklahoma (primary)
Tennessee (primary) Texas (primary)
Vermont (primary) Virginia (primary)
/
“First in the Nation”…
• Iowa and New Hampshire begin the
process in January (“first in the nation”)
• Each state determines the date for their
primary, in consultation w/ party rules.
• For voters, there are three types of
primaries….
– Closed Primary: The voter is limited to
selecting candidates of the party of which
he/she is a registered member
– Open Primary: Voters can vote in either party
primary without declaring party affiliation
(there are no restrictions on non-affiliated
voters). However, the voter must vote for
candidates of only one party
– Blanket Primary: Voters may vote for
candidates of more than one party.
The Caucus Method:
• While the caucus method is more complex
compared w/ a primary, the end result is the
same…
• … Selection of delegates to the national
party’s nominating convention.
• In the typical caucus, voters meet at the local
precinct to select representatives to attend the
next meeting.
Convention Delegates:
• To be nominated, a candidate must receive a
specified number of delegates at the party’s
national nominating convention.
• Delegates are allocated to each state proportionally –
based, roughly, on the population of each state.
• Selection of delegates is conducted in one of two
methods: presidential primary or a caucus.
• The overwhelming majority of delegates are selected
through some form of a presidential primary.
What is a Delegate?
• Delegates are individuals that are selected to represent their
respective state at the national party nominating convention.
• The rules for selecting delegates, largely dictated by the state and
national political parties, can be very complex
• The guidelines vary not only by party, but by state, and
sometimes by congressional district.
• During the Presidential Primaries and Caucuses, voters are
selecting a “slate of delegates” that will cast their vote for the
party’s nominee at the National Nominating Convention
Who are the Delegates?
• Delegates are typically loyal party activists - including local
political leaders, or early supporters of a certain presidential
candidate
• Delegates can include local elected officials, such as a county
commissioner, or a state legislator
• Delegates can also include members of a political campaign's
steering committee.
• In some cases, delegates are long-time active members of their
local or state political party
• Overall, being a delegate is "one of the rewards” for a person’s loyal
service to the party over the years
• Individual campaigns have a “right of refusal" -
the ability to reject a particular delegate.
• The individual presidential campaigns try to
ensure that delegates to the convention are, in
fact, true partisans who support their candidacy
• For example: In 2008, the Obama campaign
wanted a “slate of delegates” who would –
without a doubt - cast their vote for him during
the Convention.
• Ahead of the 2012 Conventions, Romney and
Obama were their respective party’s
Presumptive Nominees
• The delegates to the National Party
Conventions are supposed to “take their cue”
from voters who cast ballots during their state’s
primaries and caucuses
• However, each party's rules make it possible
for multiple rounds of balloting if no single
candidate is able to gain a majority of
delegates on the first ballot.
• Since 1976, all major party conventions
have opened with the nominee known in
advance (i.e., the “presumptive
nominee”).
• Some analysts speculated that the 2008
Democratic contest, and the 2012 GOP
contest, would result in a “brokered
convention”.
The Brokered Convention:
• If no single candidate receives a majority of
delegates by the end of the primary/caucus
season, a scenario called a brokered
convention could result.
• Under such a scenario, the party’s nominee is
selected either at, or near the time of, the
convention - through a tremendous amount of
“political horse-trading”
• The last national party nominating
convention that opened w/ the
identity of the nominee in question
was in 1976
• That year, Republican delegates
eventually selected Gerald Ford over
Ronald Reagan.
• For Democrats, the last time
delegates faced a contested
nomination during the convention
was 1960.
• That year, John F. Kennedy faced
opposition from Lyndon Johnson
and Adlai Stevenson.
• The 1968 Democratic National Convention is
known for being very chaotic
• There was turmoil inside the convention hall
among the delegates
• Violent protests occurred outside in the streets
of Chicago
• Among the chaos, delegates nominated Vice
President Hubert Humphrey.
Presidential Nominating Conventions
• A presidential nominating convention is
a political convention held every four
years by the Democrats and
Republicans.
• Some third parties also select their
presidential nominees by convention.
• The main purpose of a national
nominating convention is to officially
nominate the party’s candidate for
President
• In the contemporary era,
conventions have become highly
scripted, mostly ceremonial
affairs…
• Since the 1970s, voting by delegates at the
national party conventions has, for the most
part, been perfunctory
• The selection of the major parties' nominees
have basically been pre-determined
• In the contemporary era, a single ballot to
officially nominate a Presidential candidate
has been sufficient.
• During the convention, each state
delegation announces its vote
tallies and delegate allocation
• This is accompanied with some
“boosterism” of their state or
territory.
• Each political party sets its own rules for the format of
the national convention.
• Each U.S. state and territory is apportioned a certain
number of voting representatives to the convention
• Individually, these voting representatives are known as
“delegates”
• Collectively, they are referred to as “the state’s
delegation to the national convention”.
Each party uses its own formula for determining the size
of each state’s delegation to the convention
The following factors are considered:
- Population of the state
- Proportion of the state's Congressional delegation
- State government officials who are members of the
party
- The state's voting patterns in previous presidential
elections.
• The selection of individual
delegates, and their alternates, is
also governed by the bylaws of
each state’s political party, or
even state law.
• The Democrats use a proportional (as
opposed to a “winner-take-all”) delegate
allocation system
• Any Democratic candidate receiving at
least 15% of the vote in a state primary
or caucus is entitled to a proportional
number of delegates from that state.
Types of Delegates:
• In 2008, 80% of the 4,119 delegates arrived at
the Democratic National Convention having
already been “pledged” to a specific candidate
during the primaries and caucuses
• They are referred to as “Pledged Delegates”
• Democrats also make use of controversial
“Super-Delegates”.
Distribution of Democratic Delegates (2008):
Barack Obama
Pledged: 1763
Super Delegates: 438
Total: 2,201
Hillary Clinton
Pledged: 1640
Super Delegates: 256
Total: 1,896
Delegates Needed to Win = 2,118
What is a Super Delegate?
• The Democratic Party has more than 800 Super
Delegates
• They include elected officials, party officials, former
Presidents and Vice Presidents and college students.
• The GOP also include a number of “Super Delegates”
to the Convention.
• Super-Delegates are not obliged to commit to any
particular candidate
Why Super-Delegates?
• After Ronald Reagan’s landslide victory
over President Carter in 1980, the
Democratic Party “establishment”
wanted more control in selecting their
party’s nominee.
• As a result, they established the
“Super-Delegate” system.
Power of the Super-Delegate:
• Unlike “pledged” delegates, who are selected by voters
in state primaries and caucuses…
• *** Super-Delegates are entitled to vote for the
nominee of their choosing
• Super-Delegates are "uncommitted, unbound in any
fashion to any candidate”
• They can simply “throw their support” to whichever
candidate they want at the convention.
How the Republican Party Selects Delegates
• An estimated 2,663 delegates attended the
Republican National Convention in Tampa in
August 2012.
• Most had already “pledged” their support to the
candidate who won their state (in a primary or
caucus).
• In order to win the nomination, a candidate
needed to win the votes of at least 1,144
delegates at the convention.
• Again, at the start of the convention,
Governor Romney was his party’s
presumptive nominee.
• Click here for more information
about the Republican Party’s
delegate count – including state-by-
state totals
January The first caucus for selecting delegates to
each party’s national nominating convention.
January The first presidential primary is conducted for
selecting delegates for each party’s
national nominating convention.
Through
June
The remaining delegates are selected in each
state through either a primary or caucus.
August and
September
The Democrats and Republicans each hold a
national convention to officially nominate their
respective presidential candidate for the
General Election.
Recap: The Presidential Candidate Nominating Process…
The General Election:
• After receiving the nomination of their
respective party, the Presidential
candidate must begin a new campaign
• During the General Election, Presidential
candidates focus on gaining a majority
of Electoral College votes.
Article II, Section 1, Clause 2 (U.S. Constitution):
• Each State shall appoint, in such manner as the
Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of
Electors, equal to the whole Number of
Senators and Representatives to which the
State may be entitled in the Congress…
• …But no Senator or Representative, or Person
holding an Office of Trust or Profit under the
United States, shall be appointed an Elector.
Article II, Section 1, Clause 3:
• Replaced by Amendment XII (1804) to the
Constitution, which reads…
• The Electors shall meet in their respective states, and
vote by ballot for President and Vice-President, one of
whom… shall not be an inhabitant of the same state...
• The President of the Senate shall, in the presence of
the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the
certificates and the votes shall then be counted
Why the Founders Created the Electoral College:
• A compromise between the election of the President by
Congress, or the state legislatures, or by direct popular
vote of the people
• Fear of “mob rule” (“tyranny of the majority”)
• Fear of a tyrant, of tyrannical rule
• Concern about the “rationality” of voters
Why the Founders created the Electoral College
• Concern that citizens lacked “informational capacity” -
they lacked access to information about national
candidates and issues
• The inability of the national government to conduct
elections
• Fear among the smaller states that a “stream” of
Presidents would come from then-dominant Virginia and
Massachusetts
• Slavery: More power and influence to Southern states
(per the “3/5 Compromise”)
Electoral College:
• A “slate of electors” are selected by the voters in each
state and the District of Columbia.
• These “electors” officially elect the President and Vice
President.
• The number of electors in each state is equal to the
number of each state’s representatives in the U.S.
House and Senate.
• Amendment XXIII to the Constitution (1961) grants D.C.
as many electors (3) as the state with the smallest
population.
There are a total of 538 electors
• 435 based on the number of U.S. Representatives
• 100 based on the number of U.S. Senators
• 3 from the District of Columbia.
For a candidate to be elected President, he or she
must win a minimum of 270 electoral votes.
Who Are the Electors?:
- The process for selecting a “slate of electors” varies
state-by-state throughout the nation.
- Generally, the political parties in each state nominate
electors at their state party conventions, or by a vote of
the party's central committee.
- Electors are often selected to recognize their service
and dedication to their party – they are party
“heavyweights”.
- They may be state-elected officials, party leaders, or
persons who have a personal or political affiliation with
the Presidential candidate.
Selection of Candidates and Electors:
• From George Washington to John Quincy
Adams, presidential candidates were selected
by “King Caucuses” (which included U.S.
Senators and Representatives).
• In 1796 – the nation’s first contested
Presidential election – neither popular voting,
nor statewide winner-take-all was the norm.
• The Constitution gives the power to the
individual state legislatures to decide how
electors are selected
• In some states, state legislatures
appointed/selected the electors to the Electoral
College – w/ half the states continuing to do so
in 1812
• In other states, the people voted directly, in
electoral districts
A “Popular” Movement:
• In 1824, state legislatures in just 25% (6 of 24) of the
states selected the electors who voted in the Electoral
College
• As a result, a popular vote method was used in the
majority of states).
• By 1828, only Delaware and South Carolina continued
to use this “legislative choice” method
• Andrew Jackson broke the power of the congressional
“King Caucus” to name presidential candidates
• 1824 was the last year in which the “King
Caucus” system was used to select the
Presidential candidates.
• The election of 1824 was the first in which a
nationwide popular vote count could be
tabulated (although it did not include six states)
• In 1831, the Antimasons became the first
political party to hold a national nominating
convention
First Tuesday in November:
Presidential General Election
• Presidential elections are NOT nationwide direct popular
vote elections
• When voters cast a ballot, they are actually voting for a “slate
of electors” (associated with one of the Presidential candidates).
• Presidential elections are state-by-state battles over a slate of
electors in each individual state
• Presidential elections are a battle over Electoral College votes,
with a minimum of 270 Electoral Votes required to be elected
President.
Allocating Electoral College Votes:
- 48 of the 50 states, and the District of Columbia, use a "winner-
take-all” method of allocating Electoral College votes.
- Exceptions: Maine and Nebraska (which use a proportional
system)
- Under the “Unit Rule”, the winner of the state’s popular vote (even
if just a plurality) gets all of that state’s Electoral votes
- Presidential candidates have virtually no incentive to campaign
in states where they are certain either to win or to lose
- These “spectator states” include California, Illinois, New York and
Texas.
General Election Day:
• The Constitution (Article II, Section 1, Clause 4) gives Congress
the power to determine the date for selecting electors (i.e., the
date of the General Election) and the day on which the Electoral
College will meet to give their Votes
• The election of 1948 witnessed the first modern presidential
election…
• For the first time, every state selected their electors on the very
same day. And, all but South Carolina did so by popular vote.
• A uniform single day had been mandated by an act of Congress
following the election of 1844 – resulting from fraud in Louisiana.
General Election: Why Tuesday?:
• The U.S. has a long-standing tradition of electing Presidents on
the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November, every four
years.
• Congress specified Tuesday so that rural voters could journey to
the county seat on Monday, not forcing sabbatarians to travel on
Sundays.
• November 1 was ruled-out, because Catholics went to mass on All
Saints’ Day
• Some states have provisions that allow for “early voting”
• The “Weekend Voting Act” has been introduced in Congress
Meeting of Electoral College:
• Meetings of Electors and Transmission of
Certificates of Vote to the National Archives and
Records Administration
• Takes place on the first Monday after the second
Wednesday in December – as prescribed by Congress
in federal law.
• On this day, electors throughout the nation meet in
their state capitols to select the President and Vice
President of the United States.
•
Faithless Electors:
• There is no Constitutional provision
or Federal law that requires electors to
vote in accordance with the popular vote
in their States
• They are referred to as “Faithless
Electors”
"Faithless Electors“
• In Ray v. Blair, the Supreme Court ruled to allow states to
empower political parties to require formal pledges from Electors
• 26 states (as of November 2012) have created laws to enforce an
elector's pledge to his or her party vote or the popular vote of
his/her state.
• Some states assess a misdemeanor charge and a fine to such
actions.
• The state of North Carolina charges a fine of $10,000 to faithless
electors.
• Many scholars believe that state-level laws hold no true bearing
and would not survive a constitutional challenge.
Counting of Electoral Votes:
- The U.S. House and Senate meet in a joint
session to inspect the “Certificates of
Ascertainment” and count the Electoral College
votes
- Congress has the statutory power to change
the date.
- The President of the Senate is the presiding
officer
• Again, to be elected President and Vice
President, a candidate must garner at
least 270 Electoral College votes
• The nationwide popular vote is absolutely
meaningless !!
- In the absence of a majority, the House
selects the President, the Senate selects
the Vice President (per Amendment XII)
January 20 @ Noon: Inauguration Day:
Per Amendment XX, the President-elect takes the
Oath of Office and officially becomes President of the United States.
Article II, Section 1: Before he enter on the Execution of his Office, he shall
take the following Oath or Affirmation: I do solemnly sear (or affirm) that I will
faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the
best of my Ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the
United States.”
The “Lame-Duck” Amendment:
- Until 1933, newly elected Presidents and members of
Congress did not take office until March 4
- During The Great Depression, as the economy
worsened, President Hoover
and “Lame Duck” members
of Congress held power for
four months after the election
(while President-elect FDR
“waited in the wings”)
- As a result, Amendment XX
(the “Lame-Duck Amendment”) was
ratified in 1933…
- Inauguration Day for the President
and Vice President was changed
to January 20
- The meeting date for the new Congress
is January 3
Noteworthy Presidential Elections:
• 1800: Thomas Jefferson elected by the U.S. House of
Representatives (Electoral College tie; no Electoral College
majority)
• 1824: John Quincy Adams elected by the House of
Representatives (no Electoral College majority)
• 1876: Rutherford Hayes elected by Electoral College majority
after losing the nationwide popular vote
• 1888: Benjamin Harrison elected by Electoral College majority
after losing the nationwide popular vote
• 2000: George W. Bush elected by Electoral College majority
after losing the nationwide popular vote
1796 and 1800 Elections:
• In 1800, Vice President Thomas Jefferson
unseated incumbent President John Adams.
• The election exposed a “flaw” in the original
Constitution,
leading to the
ratification of
Amendment XII…
Amendment XII (1804):
• …(The Electors) shall name in their ballots the
person voted for as President, and in distinct
ballots the person voted for as Vice-
President…
• The amendment stipulates that electors must
make a separate and distinct choice between
their selections for President and Vice
President…
A “Flaw” in the Original System:
• At the beginning of the American Republic, the
candidate that had the most Electoral College votes
would become the President (assuming he had a
majority).
• The candidate with the second highest number of
votes would become Vice President
• There was no accounting for the impact of political
parties or factions in the original Constitution.
• As a result of the Presidential Election
of 1796, the nation had a President of
one Party (John Adams, a Federalist)
and a Vice President of another
(Thomas Jefferson, a Democratic-
Republican).
Election of 1800…
• Vice President Thomas Jefferson and his
running-mate Aaron Burr were tied in Electoral
College votes (both were from the same party).
• On Feb. 17, 1801 - on the 36th ballot - the
deadlocked House of Representatives
decided the election in Jefferson’s favor.
• The elections of 1796 and 1800 lead to the
ratification of Amendment XII (1804).
Election of 1824:
• In 1824, no candidate received a majority of Electoral College
votes
• Andrew Jackson received more popular votes and more
Electoral College votes than any other candidate (there were five
candidates total).
• The House of Representatives decided the election in favor of
John Quincy Adams
• In 1828, during one of the dirtiest campaigns
in American history, the populist Jackson
defeated Adams.
No Electoral College Majority?
• If no candidate receives a majority of Electoral College
votes – at least 270 - the House of Representatives will
choose the President from among the three candidates
with the most Electoral votes.
• Each state delegation – no matter the population of the
state - will receive ONE VOTE.
• If a Vice-Presidential candidate fails to receive a
majority, the U.S. Senate would decide the winner.
• The process is discussed in Amendment XII
In 1876, Rutherford Hayes won the Electoral College
by a single vote (even though Tilden had won a
majority of the nationwide popular vote).
• In 1888, Grover Cleveland received over 100,000
more popular votes than Benjamin Harrison.
However, Harrison received the majority of votes cast
in the Electoral College.
• In 2000, George W. Bush
lost the nationwide popular
vote by some 500,000 votes,
but still garnered a majority of
the electoral vote (271 to 266)
Arguments Against the Electoral College:
• Irrelevancy of the national popular vote
• Discourages or suppresses turnout in
“spectator” states (disenfranchising voters)
• Disadvantage for third parties
• The focus on independent voters in (large)
“swing” states
Arguments in Support of the Electoral College:
• Prevents an “urban-centric” campaign strategy
• Maintains and protects American federalism
• Encourages stability through a two-party system
• State-by-state recounts (instead of national recounts)
• Gives the new President a more convincing margin of
victory, and a clear governing mandate
Since at least 270 Electoral College votes are required to be elected President – and the nationwide
popular vote is meaningless - Presidential elections are typically decided by “independent voters” in a
limited number of “swing-states”. The media ad blitz discussed below is mainly concentrated in 15 “key”
media markets in nine “swing states”.
"I never attach a must-win to any state… But
anyone who analyzes this would have to say
Florida is in the upper echelon of states and
we're going to spend a great deal of time there,
and a great deal of energy there. It is a very,
very significant state.“
- David Axelrod
President Obama's Chief Political Strategist
Changing the System
• To change how the President and Vice President are
elected, an amendment to the Constitution would
need to be proposed and ratified.
• Following the 1968 Election, Congress came close to
proposing such an amendment – referred to as the
Bayh-Celler Amendment
• Another proposal - the National Popular Vote
Interstate Compact - would replace the current system
of presidential elections with a direct, nationwide
popular vote.
2012 Presidential Election Results
Barack Obama (D)
332 Electoral Votes 61.7 million Popular Votes (50.6%)
Mitt Romney (R)
206 Electoral Votes 58.5 million Popular Votes (47.9%)