Run-Timing Run-Timing Changes and Changes and

Resilience in Auke Resilience in Auke Creek SalmonCreek Salmon

David TallmonDavid Tallmon1,2,31,2,3 & Ryan & Ryan KovachKovach2,42,4

11Biology and Marine Biology Program (UAS)Biology and Marine Biology Program (UAS)22Institute of Arctic Biology (UAF)Institute of Arctic Biology (UAF)

33School of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences (UAF)School of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences (UAF)44Biology and Wildlife (UAF)Biology and Wildlife (UAF)

Salmon Value to AlaskaSalmon Value to Alaska

Important Cultural & Regional IconImportant Cultural & Regional Icon

Massive Ecological Value – marine Massive Ecological Value – marine nutrient & energy input, and nutrient & energy input, and bioturbationbioturbation

Huge Economic Impact Huge Economic Impact

>> $3 billion commercial fishery $3 billion commercial fishery (2000-09)(2000-09)

Important Subsistence Important Subsistence SpeciesSpecies

(ADFG 1999)(ADFG 1999)

How are salmon changing How are salmon changing in response to climate in response to climate

change?change? Temperatures are increasing and Temperatures are increasing and

will continue to increase.will continue to increase.

How are salmon changing How are salmon changing in response to climate in response to climate

change?change? Temperatures are increasing and Temperatures are increasing and

will continue to increase.will continue to increase.

Is salmon run timing changing with Is salmon run timing changing with warming?warming?

How are salmon changing How are salmon changing in response to climate in response to climate

change?change? Temperatures are increasing and Temperatures are increasing and

will continue to increase.will continue to increase.

Is salmon run timing changing with Is salmon run timing changing with warming?warming?

What are the effects on salmon What are the effects on salmon availability? availability?

How are salmon changing How are salmon changing in response to climate in response to climate

change?change? Temperatures are increasing and will Temperatures are increasing and will

continue to increase.continue to increase.

Is salmon run timing changing with Is salmon run timing changing with warming?warming?

What are the effects on salmon What are the effects on salmon availability? availability?

Is salmon abundance resilient to warming?Is salmon abundance resilient to warming?

Auke Creek SiteAuke Creek Site NOAA permanent weirNOAA permanent weir ~40 yrs detailed data~40 yrs detailed data Sockeye, pink, coho runsSockeye, pink, coho runs

(Dollys & cuts, too)(Dollys & cuts, too)

Outreach Outreach picpic

Auke Creek is warming.Auke Creek is warming.

Joyce (2011)

Is juvenile run timing Is juvenile run timing changing? changing?

Is juvenile run timing Is juvenile run timing changing? Yes, it’s earlier.changing? Yes, it’s earlier.

pinkspinks

sockeysockeyee cohocoho

Dollys CutsDollys Cuts

late

rla

ter

earl

ier

earl

ier

Is spawning run timing Is spawning run timing changing? changing?

late

rla

ter

earl

ier

earl

ier

Is spawning run timing Is spawning run timing changing? changing? Yes, it’s earlier.Yes, it’s earlier.

Most runs are earlier Most runs are earlier (except sockeye adults).(except sockeye adults).

19 days19 days

late

rla

ter

earl

ier

earl

ier

What are the effects of What are the effects of changes in run timing on changes in run timing on

availability?availability?

Adult salmon availability Adult salmon availability has decreased!has decreased!

SockeyeSockeye

PinkPink(even & odd)(even & odd)

CohoCoho

Are salmon abundances Are salmon abundances resilient to changes? Yes, resilient to changes? Yes,

so far.so far.

λλ = 1 is stable = 1 is stableNone significantly different None significantly different

from stable.from stable.

pinkpink sockeyesockeye cohocoho

What does the best dataset in What does the best dataset in Alaska say about salmon Alaska say about salmon

response to climate change?response to climate change?

What does the best dataset in What does the best dataset in Alaska say about salmon Alaska say about salmon

response to climate change?response to climate change?Is salmon run timing changing with Is salmon run timing changing with

warming? warming?

Yes – most juveniles and adults Yes – most juveniles and adults emigrating and immigrating emigrating and immigrating earlier.earlier.

What does the best dataset in What does the best dataset in Alaska say about salmon Alaska say about salmon

response to climate change?response to climate change?Is salmon run timing changing with Is salmon run timing changing with

warming? warming?

Yes – most juveniles and adults Yes – most juveniles and adults emigrating and immigrating earlier.emigrating and immigrating earlier.

What are the effects on salmon What are the effects on salmon availability? availability?

Smaller window in which ecosystem Smaller window in which ecosystem service available for harvest.service available for harvest.

What does the best dataset in What does the best dataset in Alaska say about salmon Alaska say about salmon

response to climate change?response to climate change?Is salmon run timing changing with warming? Is salmon run timing changing with warming?

Yes – most juveniles and adults emigrating Yes – most juveniles and adults emigrating and immigrating earlier.and immigrating earlier.

What are the effects on salmon availability? What are the effects on salmon availability?

Smaller window in which ecosystem Smaller window in which ecosystem service service

available for harvest.available for harvest.

Is salmon abundance resilient to warming? Is salmon abundance resilient to warming?

Yes. So far all salmon spp. have stable Yes. So far all salmon spp. have stable abundances.abundances.

Unknowns.Unknowns.

How widespread is earlier How widespread is earlier emigration and immigration?emigration and immigration?

Is availability decreasing throughout Is availability decreasing throughout SE Alaska?SE Alaska?

What other factors influence salmon What other factors influence salmon availability?availability?

Current efforts.Current efforts. Examining “run timing” genes in pink Examining “run timing” genes in pink

salmon…are they evolving or adjusting?salmon…are they evolving or adjusting?

Examining abiotic and biotic factors that best Examining abiotic and biotic factors that best explain pink and coho run timing explain pink and coho run timing beyond beyond stream temperature.stream temperature.

Examine regional patterns in salmon run Examine regional patterns in salmon run timing and abundance timing and abundance regional database. regional database.

Examine archaeological data for historic Examine archaeological data for historic Alaska Native weirs in Southeast Alaska Alaska Native weirs in Southeast Alaska regional database.regional database.

AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements

EPSCoREPSCoR NOAA – John Joyce, Jesse Echave, Gerry NOAA – John Joyce, Jesse Echave, Gerry

TaylorTaylor UAF - Mark Lindberg, Milo Adkinson, UAF - Mark Lindberg, Milo Adkinson,

Tony GharrettTony Gharrett ADFG Sustainable Salmon Fund (Project # ADFG Sustainable Salmon Fund (Project #

45965)45965) North Pacific Research Board (Project # North Pacific Research Board (Project #

1110)1110)

Lots of variation in Lots of variation in phenotypic variance trends.phenotypic variance trends.

pinkspinks

sockeysockeyee

cohocoho