Route 11 Traffic & Toll Revenue Study
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Transcript of Route 11 Traffic & Toll Revenue Study
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7/28/2019 Route 11 Traffic & Toll Revenue Study
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Route 11 Traffic & Toll Revenue Study
Tom Maziarz, CT DOT
presentation to
Greenway CommissionSECCOG, June 19, 2013
PreliminaryFindings
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Route 11
Extension
Route 11(existing)
Toll Revenue Study
Part of Financial Plan
Financial plan requirement
to demonstrate ability to pay
sources & amounts of funding
timelines for funding availability
Toll Revenue Study
Can tolling generate enoughrevenue to pay a meaningfulportion of the cost?
Scope of Tolling Study:
wide range of tolling options
broad geographic scope
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Driver Survey
Sites
Tolling Study
Consultant:
expertise & experience in tollingstudies
Analysis based on:
extensive data collection
traffic modeling special survey of drivers
special toll assessment methods
Planning-Level Results:
reasonable estimates of revenue
investment-grade analysis istypically next step if planning studyindicates good revenue potential
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4
Cost & Financing Assumptions:
Cost:
$1.4 Billion to construct
Financing:
Bond full amount (for comparative purposes)
Annual debt payment = $121 Million
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Variety of tolling options evaluatedToll collection methods:
Cash & electronic
Electronic onlyToll rates
What is traveler willing to pay?
What rate yields best revenue?
Back-office & administrative functions
How do you manage day-to-day collection, processing, &administration of system?
For planning purposes we used:
Lowest cost collection & back-office options
o all-electronic collection
o private contractor services Best rate for revenue
o about $0.20 per mile
higher rate will trigger: more toll avoidance & lower revenue
common rate on many new facilities
o $1.00 or $2.00 flat rate at interchange
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What was geographic scope?
Toll collection locations:
Route 11 extension
Locations beyond 8.5 mile project
o Existing Route 11
o Route 2 (alternative to Route 11)
o Interchange of Rt 11, I-95, I-395
Why we explored broad geographic scope
Need to consider alternate routes &diversions
Understanding full range of revenue options& yields leads to better informed decisions
Interchange
Route 2
Route 11extension
Route 11
(existing)
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1. Route 11: extension only toll the 8-mile Route 11 extension only.
2. Route 11: extension + existing
toll all 16 miles of Route 11 (existing plus extension).
3. Route 11 (all) & Route 2
toll all 16 miles of Route 11 plus 13 miles of Route 2.
4. Routes 11 extension & I-95 interchange
toll Route 11 extension plus I-95/I-395 interchange.
5. I-95 interchange only
toll I-95/I-395/Route 11 interchange only
Toll Location Alternatives
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ChestnutHill Rd.
ScottHill Rd.
HaughtonRd.
FitchvilleRd.
OtrobandoAve.
BozrahSt.
NorwichAve.
WawecusSt.
WitchMeadow
Rd.
East
HaddamRd.
ParumRd.
LakeHayward
Rd.
DrFoote
Rd.
395
HartfordTpke.
TurnerRd.
ChesterfieldRd.
GrassyHill Rd.
FlandersRd.
161
39595
95
395
354
Toll Location Alternatives:
Alternative 1Route 11: Extension Only
Variations Tested:
toll rates: (permile)o $0.20 **
o $0.15
o $0.10
o $0.05collection methods:o electronic with cash option
o electronic only**
All Electronic Tolls (AET)
** $0.20 & AET assumed for all
alternatives presented
toll
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Revenues:
$5.9 million annually (gross)
Low revenue yield relative to Route 11 cost
Traffic:
Toll on Rt 11 extension discourages drivers from
using Rt 11 extension
60-70% of drivers remain on Route 85
Alternative 1 Route 11 Extension Only
Findings
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Mainline Toll Zone / Gantry
10
Alternative 1Route 11 Extension Only
2011
current
traffic
2020
Build
no toll
2020
Build
with tollRoute 85 15,000 2,900 11,900
Route 11 0 18,700 7,700
Corridor total 15,000 21,600 19,600
EastHaddamRd.
ParumRd.
LakeHayward
Rd.
DrFoote
Rd.
395
HartfordTpke.Turner
Rd.
GrassyHill Rd.
95
95
161
11
11
82
85
2 354
about 9,000 cars
return to Rt 85
Tolling removes less traffic
from Route 85.
Conclusion: Not viable alternative
Does not remove sufficient trafficfrom Route 85
Very low revenue potential
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Revenues:
$8.5 million annually (gross)
Low revenue yield relative to Route 11 cost
Traffic:
Problem: toll adds traffic to Route 85 (north of Rt 82)
Alternative 2 Route 11: Extension plus Existing
Findings
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Alternative 2Route 11: extensionplusexisting
ParumRd.
DrFoote
Rd.
395
HartfordTpke.Turner
Rd.
GrassyHill Rd.
95
95
161
11
11
82
2354
85 85
Conclusion: Alt 2 is nota viable option given low revenues & local traffic impacts
2011
currenttraffic
2020
Buildno toll
2020
Buildwith toll
Route 85 2,400 1,600 8,600
Route 11 9,700 15,300 5,300
Corridor total 12,100 16,900 13,900
Tolling existing Rt 11
adds traffic to Route 85(1,600 to 8,600)
Mainline Toll Zone / Gantry
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ChestnutHill Rd.
ScottHill Rd.
HaughtonRd.
FitchvilleRd.
OtrobandoAve.
BozrahSt.
NorwichAve.
WawecusSt.
Witch
MeadowRd.
East
HaddamRd.
ParumRd.
LakeHayward
Rd.
DrFoote
Rd.
395
HartfordTpke.
TurnerRd.
ChesterfieldRd.
GrassyHill Rd.
FlandersRd.
39595
95
395
161
354
Toll Location Alternatives:
Alternative3Route 11 (all) + Route 2
toll
toll
toll
same as Alt 2, but adds a toll to Route 2
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Alternative 3 - Toll Route 11 plus Route 2
ParumRd.
NewLondon
Rd.
LakeHayward
Rd.
DrFoote
Rd.
ChestnutHillRd. Scott
HillRd.
HaughtonRd.
FitchvilleRd.
BozrahSt.
NorwichAve.
395
232
32
11
354
tolling Rt 2 diverts 18,100drivers to other roads
(Rt 2 drops from 33,100 to 15,300)
2011
currenttraffic
2020
Buildno toll
2020
Buildwith toll
Route 2 27,200 33,100 15,300
Mainline Toll Zone / Gantry
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Where do the
18,100 cars go?
ParumRd.
NewLondon Rd.
LakeHayward
Rd.
DrFoote
Rd.
ChestnutHillRd. Scott
Hill
Rd.
FitchvilleRd.
BozrahSt.
Norwich Ave.
395
232
3211
354
Route 82:4-5 miles south
Diversion routes
Volume
Diverted
Norwich Av -Fitchville Rd 6,700
Route 82 4,500
Route 32 3,600
Other Local Roads 2,000
I-395 1,300
18,100
Conclusion: Despite revenue potential, Alt. 3 is not viable option.
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ChestnutHill Rd.
ScottHill Rd.
HaughtonRd.
FitchvilleRd.
OtrobandoAve.
BozrahSt.
NorwichAve.
WawecusSt.
Witch
MeadowRd.
East
HaddamRd.
ParumRd.
LakeHayward
Rd.
DrFoote
Rd.
395
HartfordTpke.
TurnerRd.
ChesterfieldRd.
GrassyHill Rd.
FlandersRd.
39595
95
395
161
354
Toll Location Alternatives:
Alternative 4Route 11 extension + Interchange
tolltoll
same as Alt 1, but adds toll to 95/395/11 interchange
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Revenues: $46 - $78 million annually (gross)
o $46 million = $1.00 toll at interchange (plus $0.20/mile on Route 11 extension)
o $78 million = $2.00 toll at interchange (plus $0.20/mile on Route 11 extension)
High revenue yield relative to Route 11 cost
Note: Federal law currently prohibits adding tolls to an Interstate highway unless it is part of aspecial pilot program. However, federal transportation act must be reauthorized in less than 2
years and restrictions might be changed.
Traffic:
Route 85: Results similar to Alt 1 (tolls on Rt 11 extension only). Placing a toll on
Route 11fails to remove the desired amount of traffic from Route 85.
I-95 & I-395: Diversion from I-95 & I-395 (at $1.00 toll) is about 9% butfurther
analysis required.
Alternative 4 Route 11 Extension plus Interchange
Findings
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Alternative 4Route 11 Extensionplus Interchange
EastHaddam
Rd.
ParumRd.
LakeHayward
Rd.
DrFoote
Rd.
395Hartford
Tpke.TurnerRd.
ChesterfieldRd.
GrassyHillRd. Flanders
Rd.
95
95
161
11
11
82
85
2354
Toll at
interchange
= $1.00
Toll on Rt 11
= $0.20/mileMainline Toll Zone / Gantry
Ramp Toll Zone / Gantry
Route 85 &Route 11 volumes2011
current
traffic
2020Build
no toll
2020Build
with toll
Route 85 15,000 1,300 11,500
Route 11 0 22,900 9,200
Corridor total 15,000 24,200 20,700
about 10,000 cars
return to Route 85
Tolling Rt 11removes less
traffic from Route 85.
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Alternative 4Route 11 Extensionplus Interchange
2020
Build
no toll
2020
Build
with toll
traffic
diverted
by toll
I-95 79,700 72,100 7,600 (10%)
I-395 27,400 25,000 2,400 (9%)
Corridor total 107,100 97,100 10,000 (9%)
tolling interchangediverts about 9% of traffic
from I-95 & I-395
EastHaddam
Rd.
ParumRd.
LakeHayward
Rd.
DrFoote
Rd.
395Hartford
Tpke.TurnerRd.
ChesterfieldRd.
GrassyHillRd. Flanders
Rd.
95
95
161
11
11
82
85
2354
Toll at
interchange
= $1.00
Toll on Rt 11
= $0.20/mileMainline Toll Zone / Gantry
Ramp Toll Zone / Gantry
I-95 & I-395 traffic volumes
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WitchMeadow
Rd.
EastHaddam
Rd.
ParumRd.
LakeHayward
Rd.
DrFoote
Rd.
395
HartfordTpke.Turner
Rd.
ChesterfieldRd.
GrassyHillRd. Flanders
Rd.
95
95
161
11
1182
85
2354
22
Alternative 4Route 11 Extensionplus Interchange
Toll at interchange
= $1.00Toll on Rt 11
= $0.20/mile
Mainline Toll Zone / Gantry
Ramp Toll Zone / Gantry
Conclusion: Not viable alternative
Good revenue potential
But it does not remove sufficient trafficfrom Route 85
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ChestnutHill Rd.
ScottHill Rd.
HaughtonRd.
FitchvilleRd.
OtrobandoAve.
BozrahSt.
NorwichAve.
WawecusSt.
Witch
MeadowRd.
East
HaddamRd.
ParumRd.
LakeHayward
Rd.
DrFoote
Rd.
395
HartfordTpke.
TurnerRd.
ChesterfieldRd.
GrassyHill Rd.
FlandersRd.
39595
95
395
161
354
Toll Location Alternatives:
Alternative 5Interchange only
toll
Add a toll to 95/395/11 interchange only
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Revenues $38 - $69 million annual gross (versus $46-$78M for Alt 4)
o $38 million = $1.00 toll
o $69 million = $2.00 toll
high revenue yield relative to Route 11 cost
Note: Federal law currently prohibits adding tolls to an Interstate highwayunless it is part of a special pilot program. However, federal transportation act
must be reauthorized in less than 2 years and restrictions might be changed.
Traffic: Route 85: no impact from tolls
I-95 & I-395: Diversion from I-95 & I-395 (at $1.00 toll) is about 15% but
further analysis required.
Alternative 5 Interchange only
Findings
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Alternative 5Interchange only
2020
Build
no toll
2020
Build
with toll
traffic
diverted
by toll
I-95 79,700 68,200 11,500 (14%)
I-395 27,400 23,000 4,400 (16%)
Corridor total 107,100 91,200 15,900 (15%)
Mainline Toll Zone / Gantry
Ramp Toll Zone / Gantry
tolling interchange
diverts about 15% of traffic
from I-95 & I-395
WitchMeadow
Rd.
EastHaddam
Rd.
ParumRd.
LakeHayward
Rd.
DrFoote
Rd.
395
Hartford
Tpke.TurnerRd.
ChesterfieldRd.
GrassyHillRd. Flanders
Rd.
95
95
161
11
11
82
85
2354
Toll at
interchange
= $1.00
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Alternative 5Interchange only
Mainline Toll Zone / Gantry
Ramp Toll Zone / Gantry
WitchMeadow
Rd.
EastHaddam
Rd.
ParumRd.
LakeHayward
Rd.
DrFoote
Rd.
395
HartfordTpke.Turner
Rd.
ChesterfieldRd.
GrassyHillRd. Flanders
Rd.
95
95
161
11
11
82
85
2354
Toll at
interchange
= $1.00
Conclusion: Warrants further study.
Good revenue potential
Traffic impacts need further study.
o to identify which roads are impacted
o to determine if we can to reduce diversions
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$6.1
$6.0
$8.5
$51.0
$28.3
$54.0
$29.9
$19.5
$18.0
$9.5
$18.5
$10.4
$0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120
1 - Rt 11 Extension Only
Route 11
Route 2
I-95
I-395
$28.0
$46.3
$78.6
$5.9
$8.5
millions:
$37.8
$69.0
AnnualDebt
Service
$121 (1)
2 - Rt 11: Extension + Existing
3 - Rt 11 (all) + Rt 2
4A - Rt 11 Ext.+ Interchange ($1.00)
5A Interchange Only ($1.00)
4B - Rt 11 Ext. + Interchange ($2.00)
5B Interchange Only ($2.00)
Financial Summary:
Preliminary Estimates of Gross Toll Revenues(assumes all electronic tolling at $0.20/mile)
(1) $1.7 billion bond issue. Based on total 2020 estimated project cost & additional 30% for bond sales & capitalization
of interest cost. Assumes 30-year bond term, 24-year earning period, & 5% interest rate.
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1. Alternative 5 only potentially viable tolling option If tolling is to be part of financial plan, Alt 5 (or some variation) is most viable
2. Alternative 5 needs further analysis
Traffic impacts: requires detailed assessmento Where traffic is diverted to & why?
Are these long distance trips that will shift to Rt 9, Rt 44, Rt 6, ?
Are these shorter trips that will shift to local roads?
o Can these diversions be avoided or managed?
Adjust toll rates & policies
Highway exit & entrance location & design
Revenue estimate: update & revise revenue estimate as well
Conclusions
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Continue with full Route 11 scope of work (all 3 tracks):
1. Environmental analysis2. Design plans
3. Financial plan
Financial plan:
Traditional funding sources
o Federal & state
o Timelines for availability of funds
Additional tolling analysis for Alt 5 (or version of this)
o Detailed diversion analysiso Revised revenue analysis
o Public engagement
Phasing options
Next Steps
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