Round the World
1
851 Lojum-it was impossible to investigate. Treatment for scabies was unavailable, as was a supply of the invaluable identification brace- lets. There were no communications through which to request these from Kampala CONDITIONS WHEN THE GROUP LEFT The teams left on Sept. 10. By that time, in Abim and Loyoro the famine conditions had moderated. Kaabong was reportedly the worst affected area in Karamoja. In the settled areas the sorghum harvest in July and August appears to have alleviated, albeit tempor- arily, the worst starvation. Groups of women and children were still clustered at the centres, but their numbers were smaller than on our arrival, and while all were undernourished, the proportion of severe cases was smaller. This observation may, however, reflect rising death rates among the badly affected part of the population. The pastoralists appeared to be concentrating cattle into very large herds of several hundred animals, probably for security. Pasture is likely to be a major problem, and the losses of cattle may well be increasing. Cattle are still being transported out of the dis- trict by the Uganda army, but the numbers are hard to determine. Militia are to be found mainly in the western border regions of Karamoja. Although movements of European personnel are largely unhindered, there have been incidents of harassment at roadblocks. Food convoys operated by native drivers are regularly interfered with by both militia and army. Armed guards are ineffective and in- deed counter-productive. Most food supplies reach their destina- tion in any case and are not a target of armed tribesmen, since they are destined for their families at feeding centres. Without a radio network, helicopters are an expensive luxury from the point of view of relief transport. Their most useful role would be for a properly designed nutrition and agricultural survey as soon as possible. THE FUTURE Our overwhelming impression, from the local population, from missionaries, and from other relief workers, is that a serious famine will again develop by the end of 1980, with an increase in starvation from October onwards.The harvest in parts of Karamoja where re- lief teams are working is reputed to be very poor-less than 20% of an average year. An influx of people is expected at the main centres within weeks and it seems that virtually all the children in Karamoja will be at risk until August, 1981. SCF now have nineteen nurses, eight administrative staff, and one doctor working with the relief operation, and further medical and support staff have been provided by the Irish group CONCERN and three French organisations. During October the number of small load-carrying vehicles has increased, and during the lull in starvation food is being distributed to villages directly rather than waiting for people to walk long dis- tances to centres. But the success of these measures will depend on the quantity and continuity of bulk food supply to the area. The major food agency has calculated that 18% of the population require full rations now and that this proportion will rise to 3707o before the next harvest. Many relief workers believe that these percentages greatly underestimate the real need and that unless the amounts of relief foods increase considerably widespread starvation in Kara- moja will continue at least for a further year. We thank all the sponsors of the expedition, and Mr Robin Stephenson, of the International Disaster Institute, London, for background information and technical advice. Requests for reprints should be addressed to S. R., Girton College, Cam- bridge. University of Cambridge SUSAN ROBINSON ALLISON STREETLY MARK FARRANT SHANE MACSWEENEY ALISTAIR MCCRACKEN Round the World From our Correspondents United States DO FIGURES LIE OR...? - THE results of the recent national census are emerging from the Census Bureau and seem to confirm what anyone who has been round this country could see-there have been great population movements in the past decade. People have moved from the city centres to the suburbs, to the small towns, and to the rural areas. There has been a shift from the north to the south, from the snow belt to the sun belt. But even where the movements are very obvious, the trend has been to avoid the larger cities. Thus, Miami has had a population growth of 3 8%, but the surrounding non- incorporated areas have grown by 48%. The Bureau was long and careful in its preparations for the census and was advised by its own and by outside statisticians, demo- graphers, and sociologists. It was well aware of deficiencies in past censuses. Thus, it admitted to undercounting by 2 5% in 1970, which meant the omission of 10’ 2 million people, among whom the Negro and Hispanic members of the community were no doubt prominent, as well as the illegal immigrants, who had no wish to be included in official recorded data. No-one knows how many illegal immigrants there are, it has been suggested many millions, and, con- trary to popular belief, they seem to make few demands on the welfare services and funds, preferring to keep as far as they can from official records. The population loss in some of the older and larger cities means that they have less national political power, less access to Federal funding and benefits. New York City is shown by the early census figures to have lost 1 million people, and is thus likely to lose 4 seats in Congress and some$20 billion in Federal funds tied to popula- tion. The city is not alone in this predicament, nor is it the only decayed or decaying city in desperate need offunds. Inevitably, such cities are turning to the courts. At the behest of Detroit, a Federal judge has now invalidated the entire national census on the high constitutional ground that, in the undercounting of the black population rather than the white, the whole basis in the constitution for the Census Bureau was invalidated-namely, that by default the one-man one-vote rule was undermined. Moreover, the judge gave the bureau thirty days to adjust its count. Adjustment is certainly not going to be possible within thirty days-and it is not likely to be achieved in thirty weeks. Nor is it likely that the readjustments will be more satisfactory to the objectors than the original figures. As a result of this decision, the census figures cannot, till adjusted, be used for re-apportionment and for deterring Federal appropriations. Thus, there is an impasse. No-one seems to know any suitable way to adjust the figures. There may have been undercounts in some city areas, but not in the small towns or rural areas. There is great debate about whether illegal immigrants, now residents, should be counted or left in limbo. At present, Federal law prohibits the use of estimates or projections of population as a basis for re-apportionmenr, which in turn reflects the Constitution’s demand that the census should record the "actual enumeration" of residents. The mayors of some of the older cities-Newark, Philadelphia, Chicago, and others-are following Detroit’s lead, and the Census Bureau might well consider an appeal to a higher court, which would give it breathing space.
Transcript of Round the World
851
Lojum-it was impossible to investigate. Treatment for scabies wasunavailable, as was a supply of the invaluable identification brace-lets. There were no communications through which to request thesefrom Kampala
CONDITIONS WHEN THE GROUP LEFT
The teams left on Sept. 10. By that time, in Abim and Loyoro thefamine conditions had moderated. Kaabong was reportedly theworst affected area in Karamoja. In the settled areas the sorghumharvest in July and August appears to have alleviated, albeit tempor-arily, the worst starvation. Groups of women and children were stillclustered at the centres, but their numbers were smaller than on our
arrival, and while all were undernourished, the proportion of severecases was smaller. This observation may, however, reflect risingdeath rates among the badly affected part of the population.The pastoralists appeared to be concentrating cattle into very
large herds of several hundred animals, probably for security.Pasture is likely to be a major problem, and the losses of cattle maywell be increasing. Cattle are still being transported out of the dis-trict by the Uganda army, but the numbers are hard to determine.Militia are to be found mainly in the western border regions of
Karamoja. Although movements of European personnel are largelyunhindered, there have been incidents of harassment at roadblocks.Food convoys operated by native drivers are regularly interferedwith by both militia and army. Armed guards are ineffective and in-deed counter-productive. Most food supplies reach their destina-tion in any case and are not a target of armed tribesmen, since theyare destined for their families at feeding centres. Without a radionetwork, helicopters are an expensive luxury from the point of viewof relief transport. Their most useful role would be for a properlydesigned nutrition and agricultural survey as soon as possible.
THE FUTURE
Our overwhelming impression, from the local population, frommissionaries, and from other relief workers, is that a serious faminewill again develop by the end of 1980, with an increase in starvationfrom October onwards.The harvest in parts of Karamoja where re-lief teams are working is reputed to be very poor-less than 20% ofan average year. An influx of people is expected at the main centreswithin weeks and it seems that virtually all the children in Karamojawill be at risk until August, 1981.SCF now have nineteen nurses, eight administrative staff, and
one doctor working with the relief operation, and further medicaland support staff have been provided by the Irish groupCONCERN and three French organisations.During October the number of small load-carrying vehicles has
increased, and during the lull in starvation food is being distributedto villages directly rather than waiting for people to walk long dis-tances to centres. But the success of these measures will depend onthe quantity and continuity of bulk food supply to the area. Themajor food agency has calculated that 18% of the population requirefull rations now and that this proportion will rise to 3707o before thenext harvest. Many relief workers believe that these percentagesgreatly underestimate the real need and that unless the amounts ofrelief foods increase considerably widespread starvation in Kara-moja will continue at least for a further year.
We thank all the sponsors of the expedition, and Mr Robin Stephenson, ofthe International Disaster Institute, London, for background information andtechnical advice.
Requests for reprints should be addressed to S. R., Girton College, Cam-bridge.
University of Cambridge
SUSAN ROBINSONALLISON STREETLYMARK FARRANTSHANE MACSWEENEYALISTAIR MCCRACKEN
Round the World
From our Correspondents
United States
DO FIGURES LIE OR...? -
THE results of the recent national census are emerging from theCensus Bureau and seem to confirm what anyone who has beenround this country could see-there have been great populationmovements in the past decade. People have moved from the citycentres to the suburbs, to the small towns, and to the rural areas.There has been a shift from the north to the south, from the snowbelt to the sun belt. But even where the movements are veryobvious, the trend has been to avoid the larger cities. Thus, Miamihas had a population growth of 3 8%, but the surrounding non-incorporated areas have grown by 48%.
The Bureau was long and careful in its preparations for the censusand was advised by its own and by outside statisticians, demo-graphers, and sociologists. It was well aware of deficiencies in pastcensuses. Thus, it admitted to undercounting by 2 5% in 1970,which meant the omission of 10’ 2 million people, among whom theNegro and Hispanic members of the community were no doubtprominent, as well as the illegal immigrants, who had no wish to beincluded in official recorded data. No-one knows how many illegalimmigrants there are, it has been suggested many millions, and, con-trary to popular belief, they seem to make few demands on thewelfare services and funds, preferring to keep as far as they can fromofficial records.
The population loss in some of the older and larger cities meansthat they have less national political power, less access to Federalfunding and benefits. New York City is shown by the early censusfigures to have lost 1 million people, and is thus likely to lose 4 seatsin Congress and some$20 billion in Federal funds tied to popula-tion. The city is not alone in this predicament, nor is it the onlydecayed or decaying city in desperate need offunds. Inevitably, suchcities are turning to the courts. At the behest of Detroit, a Federaljudge has now invalidated the entire national census on the highconstitutional ground that, in the undercounting of the blackpopulation rather than the white, the whole basis in the constitutionfor the Census Bureau was invalidated-namely, that by default theone-man one-vote rule was undermined. Moreover, the judge gavethe bureau thirty days to adjust its count.
Adjustment is certainly not going to be possible within thirtydays-and it is not likely to be achieved in thirty weeks. Nor is itlikely that the readjustments will be more satisfactory to theobjectors than the original figures. As a result of this decision, thecensus figures cannot, till adjusted, be used for re-apportionmentand for deterring Federal appropriations. Thus, there is an
impasse. No-one seems to know any suitable way to adjust thefigures. There may have been undercounts in some city areas, butnot in the small towns or rural areas. There is great debate aboutwhether illegal immigrants, now residents, should be counted or leftin limbo. At present, Federal law prohibits the use of estimates orprojections of population as a basis for re-apportionmenr, which inturn reflects the Constitution’s demand that the census shouldrecord the "actual enumeration" of residents. The mayors of someof the older cities-Newark, Philadelphia, Chicago, and others-arefollowing Detroit’s lead, and the Census Bureau might wellconsider an appeal to a higher court, which would give it breathingspace.
