Round Table on Past and Future of the ICP Project

Giovanni SAVIO

OIC, Statistics Division, UN-ESCWA

Manama, 20-21 February 2008

Introduction

Starting point is the document prepared by the Friends of the Chair (FOC), Review of the ICP, 2005 Round (NY, Stat. Comm., Feb. 2008, E/CN.3/2008/4, also available at UNSD website)

Document and points to be analyzed in NY as reference for costs-benefits (S.W.A.T.) analysis of the past round (document for discussion and decision)

Document as evaluation by FOC assessing scope, activities and lessons learned from the current round of ICP

Introduction

Document provides recommendations where improvements can be made, and proposal by FOC on continuation of the program

Round table to analyze main issues raised in the NY document …

… as only 3 over 11 WA countries answered FOC questionnaire (regular survey)

FOC working method

FOC working method based on 4 instruments 1) Regular survey for all 147 countries participating

in the regular ICP 2005 round (a number of subject areas covered, with main focus on governance issues, such as the basis for decision-making and communication)

2) Survey for the 17 ring countries (follows structure of regular questionnaire)

3) Users’ views on the ICP (45 international organizations)

Regular survey

A large majority (93%) of the ICP group countries are satisfied with their participation in the 2005 round and confirms that they would participate in a next round

The ICP has had wide positive effects on the national statistical programmes both in the field of price statistics and national accounts. The ICP meant substantial contributions in building national statistical capacities (institutional and technical) both in larger and smaller countries

However, communication between regional and national coordinators needs to be improved. 77% of countries confirm that the various parts of the ICP had a significant impact on the workload of the NSIs, in part due to delays and adjustment of the base year. Some of the participants argue that communication and decision process in periods have been unilateral and mandatory

Ring survey

Overall 81% of countries are positive with the participation in the ring survey

Although the attitude is mainly positive, it is not without reservations, among these:– owing to delays in the regular ICP surveys, the Ring comparison

started too late in the process and lost the flexibility needed to make adjustments underway

– problems with product specification, language and communication problems, too many consumption products on the list and differing product quality across regions etc. have all added to the national workload

– a number of countries express doubts about the quality of price data collected for the Ring comparison

– a common concern of the countries is the lack of communication among the parties involved (lack of a common validation meeting comprising all Ring countries that would contribute to solve problems with product lists and regional differences in quality)

Users’ point of view

The availability of high quality PPPs is important, PPPs are used in a number of situations (commercial purposes, policy-making, research, international comparisons etc.)

The majority of the users publish PPP-based indicators. The demand is high and is assumed to increase given the process of globalization

Indicators measuring standards of living and poverty are frequently demanded. UNCTAD would even support the computation of poverty-specific PPPs

The answer to whether there should be another round of ICP in 2010 is unarguably affirmative

However this is feasible only as long as the data are timely, reliable and available across a large number of countries. The list of developing countries participating should be expanded

Governance structure

Main issues for discussion (ctd.)

For strengthening the Global Office competence and capacity on price statistics, national account issues as well as running the Ring survey programmes, it is recommended that partnering arrangements be established with one or two NSIs from the outset of a next round

Communication aspects require further attention before launching a new round. Important aspects of the Ring comparison communication fell short during this round. Furthermore, the communication between regional and national coordinators needs to be improved

The ambition of developing ICP to full GDP coverage should be continued. To fulfil these ambitions, however, would require a clear strategy of standardization and integration between different statistical programmes. With the rapidly increasing workload of statistical offices, it is decisive for the future of ICP with a closer alignment with other statistical programmes in NSIs, such as price statistics and national accounts

Main issues for discussion

Final remark of document:

Overall, the governance structure of the 2005 ICP round has worked well

However, the report contains several recommendations

a. a decision on continuation of ICP should be taken early in 2008. A preferable new benchmark year could be 2011. This would bring the ICP at pace with the OECD/Eurostat system, enabling further integration of the two programmes.

b. The responsibilities and authority of the Global Manager should be strengthened. Terms of reference should be prepared, clarifying the roles and responsibilities of being host organization. The Global Manager should be appointed by a subcommittee from the Executive Board members.

Points for discussion

1. Overall evaluation of report

2. Proposed changes to the report, if any

3. Signature of the preface: proposals, Member of Executive Board