Role of a Financial Economist in Global Enforcement Actions and Regulatory Investigations The...
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Role of a Financial Economist in Global Enforcement Actions and Regulatory Investigations The Globalization of Enforcement Actions and Internal Investigations ABA Criminal Justice Section’s Second International White Collar Crime Conference London, England 7 October 2013 Vinita M. Juneja, Ph.D. Senior Vice President and Co-Chair of NERA's White Collar Criminal Litigation, Investigations, and Compliance Practice
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Transcript of Role of a Financial Economist in Global Enforcement Actions and Regulatory Investigations The...
Role of a Financial Economist in Global Enforcement Actions and Regulatory Investigations
The Globalization of Enforcement Actions and Internal InvestigationsABA Criminal Justice Section’s Second International White Collar Crime ConferenceLondon, England
7 October 2013
Vinita M. Juneja, Ph.D.Senior Vice President andCo-Chair of NERA's White Collar Criminal Litigation, Investigations, and Compliance Practice
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Wide Variety of Financial Issues and Alleged WrongdoingSome Illustrative Examples Are:
LIBOR (Price Fixing)
Market Timing
Options Backdating
Mispricing of Securities
Material Misstatement Re: Capital Reserves
Insider Dealing
Bribery
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BigEuroBank Allegedly Misstated Value of its CDO’s
1 May 2007 to 1 November 2008
BigEuroBank
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
Sto
ck P
rice
1 June 2007 15 October 2008
Date of Alleged Misstatement
Date ofDisclosure
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Example 1: Typical Analysis in a Security Mispricing Case
Did BigEuroBank earlier misstate a security’s value?
What is the misstatement?
Was the alleged misstatement material?– Examine impact of alleged misstatement on stock price
– Perform an event study
– Control for other influences on stock price at the same time (e.g., macroeconomic news);
– Is the remaining stock price impact statistically significant?
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Example 1: Typical Analysis in a Security Mispricing Case
Pinpoint timing of eventual disclosure– Perform an event study
– Control for other influences on stock price at the same time
– Is the remaining stock price impact statistically significant?
– Review qualitative discussion in analyst reports to assess the disclosure’s importance in the context of the larger announcement
Continued…
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1 June 2007 15 October 2008
European Banks Moved in Tandem on Date of the Alleged Correction
BigEuroBank European Banks Index
Date of Alleged Misstatement
Date ofDisclosure
Sto
ck P
rice
15 October 2008:Negative European Economic Reports
Released.
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
1 May 2007 to 1 November 2008
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First Issue: Pinpoint Timing of Disclosure– Different time zones for different markets
– Different disclosure practices/requirements in different countries
Example 1 Globalized: What Additional Considerations Arise?
Question: When the corrective news hit the market, did the stock price of BigEuroBank decline?
BigEuroBank trades on multiple exchanges in different countries and continents
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Example 1 Globalized:What Additional Considerations Arise?
Second Issue: Event Study Implementation
Asynchronous market openings and closings create problems:– What is the price of the “last trade”? (timing and exchange
rate issues)
Continued…
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Example 1 Globalized:What Additional Considerations Arise?
Should the stock return be measured from previous close of Country A to close of Country A or to close of Country B (if B closes earlier)?
Stock Return
or
Stock Return
NYSEClose
14 October 2008
DisclosureAfter Close14 October
2008
Deutsche Bourse Open15 October
2008
Deutsche Bourse Close
15 October2008
NYSEClose
15 October 2008
Continued…
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Example 1 Globalized:What Kinds of Additional Considerations Arise?
How to control for market if BigEuroBank also trades on the NYSE?
What if the more active market is closed for a holiday while the news is announced?
Appropriate use of complex statistical tools to perform an event study with asynchronous trading
Continued…
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Where do company’s shareholders reside?
Where are the majority of the company’s shareholders located?
How much of the potential exposure is accounted for by holders in a specific jurisdiction?
Example 2: Shareholder Profile Analysis in a Cross-Border Securities Litigation
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Example 2: Shareholder Profile Analysis in a Cross-Border Securities Litigation
What can we say about the proportion of investors from a certain jurisdiction that purchased on a given exchange?– Based on shareholder data
– Based on academic literature
– Based on country studies of household stock ownership
Continued…
Question: On which exchanges and in which countries did most of the trading occur?
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Examples of Available Information About a Company’s Shareholders
Canada—NOBO lists, fund holdings data
Switzerland—shareholder register with very detailed information on holdings and transactions by individual shareholders
Germany—large beneficial owner notifications and mutual fund holdings data
USA—DTCC, transfer agent, brokerage house transactions, and public filings by mutual funds, investment advisors and institutional holders
Thank YouVinita M. Juneja, Ph.D.
Senior Vice President andCo-Chair of NERA's White Collar Criminal Litigation, Investigations, and Compliance Practice NERA—London020 7659 [email protected]
© Copyright 2013NERA UK Limited
All rights reserved.
