Rodney A. Wambeam, Ph.D.Wyoming Survey & Analysis Center

Citizens Survey PanelBJS/JRSA 2009 Annual Meeting

St. Louis, Missouri

WYSAC 20092

Sublette County, Wyoming

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What explains higher rates of crime in Wyoming

communities with rapid energy-related development?

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Crime rates increase when communities experience

adverse ecological constraints and when social capital is

reducedRapid economic growthRapid population changeResidential instabilityCollective efficacy

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1.

At the individual level, length of time in the community and home ownership will be positively related to collective efficacy.

2.

Among citizens who have lived in their communities for 5 or more years, growth rate will be associated with perceptions that incivilities have increased during the past five years.

3.

Growth rate will be negatively associated with community collective efficacy.

4.

Collective efficacy will mediate the relationship between growth and victim experiences and perceived incivilities.

WYSAC 20096

Wyoming citizens who live in communities with rapid energy-related growth have lower feelings of collective

efficacy and increased perceptions of incivility as well as higher rates of victim

experiences.

Individual Unit of AnalysisAnonymous mail-based survey Random sample of 4,000 Wyoming households 1,204 completed surveys (36% response rate)

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Opened February 2, 2009

Closed March 23, 2009

Independent Variable

Growth (change in population, change in sales tax revenue)

Sublette County experienced a 34% increase in population and a 253%

increase in sales tax revenues between 2000 and

2007

Dependent Variables

Perceived incivilitiesCollective efficacyVictim experiences

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RegressionHierarchical Linear Modeling

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* Actual Image of a Past Life Regression Taken from the Internet

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PredictorsDependent Variable

Victim Experiences M (SE) Perceived Incivilities M (SE)Intercept -0.026 (0.54) -0.16 (1.41)Level-1 Variables

Education 0.02 (0.04) -.15 (0,11)

Race -0.04 (0.06) -0.16 (0.18)

Employment status 0.05 (0.16) 0.30 (0.45)

Marital status 0.04 (0.07) -0.26 (0.20)

Sex 0.06 (0.08) 1.11 (0.32)**

Age -0.09 (0.07) -0.12 (0.15)

Children under 17 in the home -0.03 (0.13) 0.16 (0.41)

Length of time in community 0.09 (0.06) 0.70 (0.19)

Housing status -0.01 (0.06) 0.26 (0.23)

Collective efficacy 0.10 (0.03)** 0.53 (0.08)***Level-2 Variables

Growth 0.00 (0.03) 0.13 (0.10)Growth x Efficacy 0.00 (0.00) -0.02 (0.01)

Table 4. Results of Hierarchical Linear Modeling with Collective Efficacy as a Mediator

*p<.05, **p<.01, ***p<.001

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What we meant to say was that Wyoming citizens who live in

communities with rapid energy-related growth have lower higher feelings of

collective efficacy and increased decreased perceptions of incivility as well

as higher lower rates of victim experiences.

People in Wyoming are happy when they have jobs

and live near a Home Depot or a Wal-Mart

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We still have higher rates of crime, domestic violence, and drug use in our rapidly developing communities.This is not related to social disorganization in terms of perceived incivilities or collective efficacy.What factors do relate rapid growth to crime in rural and frontier communities?

WYSAC 200913

Rodney A. Wambeam, Ph.D.(307) 760-8928

rodney@uwyo.eduhttp://wysac.uwyo.edu/

WYSAC 200914