Robert Roper Professor of Business, University of Maine ...

Robert Roper Professor of Business, University of Maine Augusta

(Bangor Campus) November 2, 2012

Prepared for The Hancock County Business Conference &

Trade Show in Ellsworth, Maine: 11/2/12

Professor Robert Roper, UMA-Bangor, November 2012

Presentation Outline Hello

Demographic Quick Facts on Hancock County

Categorizing Economic Activity Using the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) Sources of Data

Hancock County Economic Sector Change: 2001 – 2010 By Income & Employment

Hancock County Taxable Retail Sales Activity: 2007 – 2011 By Retail Sector and Selected

Municipalities

Conclusions


Hancock County Vs. Maine Demographic Quick Facts…2010

Hancock County Maine

Population: 54, 420

Pop Growth ‘00 – ’10: 5.4%

B.S. or Higher: 30.1%

Median Household Income: $47,533

% Population < 18: 17.9%

Area: 2,351 sq.mi.

1,328,361 4.2% 26.5% $46,933 20.3% 35,885

Source: U.S. Census


Categorizing Economic Activity Using NAICS NAICS = North American Industrial Classification System

The 21 NAICS Sectors (2-digit level) are:

Farming Real Estate/Rental

Forestry/Fishing/& Related Professional/Scientific/Technical Services

Mining Management of Companies & Enterprises

Construction Administrative & Waste Management Services

Manufacturing Educational Services

Wholesale Trade Health Care & Social Assistance

Retail Trade Arts/Entertainment/Recreation

Transportation & Warehousing Accommodation and Food Services

Information Other Services, Except Public Administration

Finance & Insurance Government & Government Enterprises

Utilities Professor Robert Roper, UMA-Bangor, November 2012

More on NAICS… Most economic sectors can be divided into ‘sub-

sectors’ (3-digit level). For example the Construction sector is divided into three sub-sectors: construction of buildings, heavy and civil engineering construction, and specialty trade contractors.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports earnings (income) of persons working in these 21 NAICS sectors. These data are frequently used to describe the amount of economic activity at the county level. Data are available from 2001 – 2010.


HANCOCK COUNTY ECONOMIC SECTOR INCOME

Income = Earnings. Three types of earnings are:

Wage & Salary

W & S Supplements (Pension, Insurance)

Proprietor’s Income

Income figures are adjusted for inflation using the CPI (2010$).


Relative Size of Hancock County’s Economic Sectors: 2010

Source: BEA


Hancock County Economic Sector Income Change: 2001 - 2010


HANCOCK COUNTY 2001 – 2010 ECONOMIC SECTOR INCOME CHANGE

SECTOR 2001-2010 Income Change

Health care and social assistance $39,690,903

Professional, scientific, and technical services $29,226,789

Wholesale trade $10,282,107

Administrative and waste management services $10,027,274

Arts, entertainment, and recreation $6,797,079

Educational services $3,953,403

Government and government enterprises $3,795,931

Accommodation and food services $1,246,963

Other services, except public administration ($72,641)

Mining ($224,985)

Retail trade ($1,045,055)

Utilities ($1,311,320)

Transportation and warehousing ($1,595,198)

Management of companies and enterprises ($1,597,694)

Information ($1,937,552)

Finance and insurance ($2,692,798)

Real estate and rental and leasing ($4,233,717)

Forestry, fishing, and related activities ($11,325,928)

Construction ($22,533,104)

Farm earnings ($24,394,983)

Manufacturing ($82,534,082)

TOTAL ($50,478,610)

Economic output, as measured by income, declined $50,478,610 over the 10 year period. This is not surprising given the severe 2007-2009 recession.

Source: BEA

Inflation adjusted 2010 $


Sub-Sector Change: Health & Social Services Sector

The driver of economic growth is the Hospitals sub-sector. Inflation adjusted income grew by $36,805,677 over the 10 year period.


Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (Sub-Sector Data not Available)

Inflation adjusted income grew by $29,226,789 over the 10 year period, though there was some shrinkage between 2008 – 2010.


Wholesale Trade (Sub-sector data not available)

Wholesale trade income persistently increased over the 2001-2010 period growing by $10,282,107. Income grew during the 2007-2009 recession.

Notably, income from this sector grew by 67% over the period.


Sub-Sector Change: Administrative & Waste Management Services

Adm. & Support Services sub-sector income grew by $8,768,281. Most of the growth occurred between 2001 and 2006.

Waste Management Services income by $1,258,993.


Sub-Sector Change: Arts & Entertainment & Recreation

Amusement/gambling/rec recreation income grew by $2,233,242.

Performing arts and spectator income grew by $4,407,388 with the growth occurring primarily between 2001 and 2005. This represents a notable growth rate of 143%.

Museum/historical site/zoos & parks income grew by $156,448.


HANCOCK COUNTY EMPLOYMENT

Employment data reported are a combination of full time and part time jobs.

Current unemployment rate is 6.5% +/-.


TOTAL NUMBER OF FULL TIME & PART TIME JOBS: HANCOCK COUNTY 2001 -2010


Hancock County Employment By Economic Sector: 2010


Hancock County Employment Chance Across Economic Sectors: 2001 - 2010


Hancock County Retail Trade: 2007 - 2011

Maine Taxable Retail Sales Data (Maine Revenue Services)

County Level

Selected Municipalities

I am reporting non-inflation adjusted (nominal) figures because the CPI increased only 8.9% between 2007 & 2011.


Maine Taxable Sales Categories & Definitions In Maine’s sales tax system, codings are by store type, not product. The store types are:

Building Supply – Durable Equipment Sales, Contractors’ Sales, Hardware Stores and Lumber Yards. Food Stores – All food stores from large supermarkets to small corner food stores. The values here are snacks and non-food items only, since food intended for home consumption is not taxed. General Merchandise – In this sales group are stores carrying product lines generally carried in large department stores. It includes clothing, furniture, shoes, radio- t.v., household durable goods, home furnishings, etc. Other Retail – This group includes a wide selection of taxable sales not covered elsewhere. Examples are dry goods stores, drug stores, jewelry stores, sporting goods stores, antique dealers, morticians, book stores, photo supply stores, gift shops, etc. Auto – This sales group includes all transportation related retail outlets. Included are auto dealers, auto parts, aircraft dealers, motorboat dealers, automobile rental, etc. Restaurant/Lodging – All stores selling prepared food for immediate consumption. The Lodging group includes only rentals tax. Source: Maine Revenue Services


Hancock County Taxable Retail Sales by Sector: 2011


Hancock County Taxable Retail Sales: 2007 - 2011


Hancock County Taxable Retail Sales Change by Sector


Hancock County Restaurant & Lodging


Bar Harbor, Maine ESA Taxable Restaurant & Lodging Sales: 2007 - 2011


Summary & Conclusions For 2010, Hancock County’s six largest economic sectors are health care & social

assistance, government, professional/scientific/technical services, retail, manufacturing, and construction. These six (of 21) sectors account for about 60% of the county’s economic activity (production) in 2010 as measured by income.

Between 2001 & 2010 Hancock County’s economy shrank by about $50,000,000; a decline 3.9%. Most of this decline occurred during the “Great Recession” period of 2007 - 2009. The county’s economy grew between 2009 & 2010.

Eight of Hancock County’s 21 economic sectors grew between 2001 and 2010. Of these eight, the five largest are health care & social assistance, professional/scientific/technical, wholesale trade, administrative & waste management, and arts/entertainment/recreation. By far the largest contracting sector was manufacturing, followed by construction and farming.

The total number of full time & part time jobs is about the same in 2001 and it was in 2010 (35,500+-).

Noticeable job gains occurred between 2001 and 2010 in the following sectors: real estate & rental, administrative & waste management, and health care & social assistance sectors. Noticeable job losses occurred in the manufacturing and government sectors.

Total Hancock County taxable retail sales remained about even during the 2007 – 2011 period at around $730,000,000. A noticeable drop in sales occurred during the Great Recession.

Hancock County’s restaurant and lodging retail sector is healthy. This retail sector grew by $15,500,000 during the 2007-2011 period, an increase of 8.0%.


THANK YOU…QUESTIONS?


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