Roadshow, Öhman Baltic Banking Day, Priit Perens
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Transcript of Roadshow, Öhman Baltic Banking Day, Priit Perens
Swedbank Estonia
Q3 2008
Priit Perens
2
I Overview of the macroeconomic situation
II Overview of the Banking sector in Estonia
III Swedbank Estonia
- Market shares/volumes
- Financial results
- Credit portfolio
3
Estonian economy is rebalancing
4
Estonian macroeconomic environment
• 2006-2007 Estonian rapid GDP growth was based on internal consumption and inflow of external money
• Now GDP growth is negative (-0,5%, Eurostat)• Consumer confidence is dropping bringing down internal consumption• Residential real estate market is illiquid and prices are down around 20 %• Import is declining (-6% in August yoy), export growth is still strong (+8% in August
yoy)• Economy is rebalancing, but further development depends on success in building
more competitive export companies.• Dependence on foreign funding still high – loan deposit ratio ca 189%
• KEY Issues: – How are our export target countries economies doing?– Access to liquidity?
5
GDP growth has dropped to negative area
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008p 2011p
6
Belief into the future has vanished
But there is strong effect of international financial crisis
Confidence indexes
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
May-02 May-03 May-04 May-05 May-06 May-07 May-08
industryconsumerconstructionretailservice
7
Low confidence is reflected in the consumption
Annual growth of retail sales
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08
retail total cars and related items other goods clothes furnishings etcDuring the last months the car sales down average by 38%, incl. new cars 24%, used cars 47%
8
Without consumption there is no production …
Growth of industrial production
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08
industrial productionmanufacturing industry productionexport salesinternal market sales
9
But rumors about death of core Estonian export are exaggerated
Annual export growth
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08
-400%
-300%
-200%
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
electronics passanger cars other goods mineral products (rhs)
10
Labor cost per hour in Euros/ 2006
0 10 20 30 40
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Finland
Sweden
Germany
11
There is no dominant sector in Estonian export(Jan-Aug 2008, change in the brackets)
groceries (13.8%)
chemical products (18.3%)
electronics (+13.2%)
machinery etc (+7.8%)
vehicles (-0.1%)
others (6.5%)
textiles (-1.8%) mineral products
(-21.2%)
wood, paper (-2.7%)
12
CAD, % to GDP
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
05(I) 05(III) 06(I) 06(III) 07(I) 07(III) 08(I)
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
goods services income transfers export growth import growth
Rebalancing of economy
13
The components of CAD, % to GDP
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
2007 2008 6M
goods and services FDI reinvestedFDI dividends interestsother private sector return/transfers EU fundsEstonian government payments
14
Real estate market: EstoniaGradual correction in residential market since April 2007
Market situation• Lower numbers of transactions, longer sale
periods and decreasing prices in residential real estate
• Apartment prices down -22% from peak in Apr’07. Further decrease is likely.
• Difficult to sell apartments in unfinished buildings• Largest decrease in transactions of land plots due
to higher construction costs and higher risk to complete the construction without a profit
Market outlook• Several developers have liquidity problems and
stock of unsold apartments is increasing. It is likely that prices on new apartments will continue to decrease
• Risk of tenants reducing their office areas. Start-up office projects and office buildings with weak concepts and poor quality will be most affected
• The quality of tenant mix, rental agreements, location, popularity of retail centers will be crucial 10
12
14
16
18
20
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EUR
/m2/
mon
th
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Vac
ancy
rate
Rent rate Vacancy rate
Tallinn apartment price and transaction development
Tallinn office rent and vacancy development
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08
EUR
/m2
02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,800
No
of tr
ansa
ctio
ns
No of deals (rhs) Average price (lhs)
Source:* Residential data – Estonia land board** Office data – credit analysts data
15
Banking market
16
Estonian Banking Sector: Financing* and Deposits
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
03/03 09/03 03/04 09/04 03/05 09/05 03/06 09/06 03/07 09/07 03/08 09/08
mio
EU
R
50%
70%
90%
110%
130%
150%
170%
190%
Financing - Corporate Financing - Private Deposits - CorporateDeposits -Private Loan/deposits (rhs)
*Financing – loan, leasing, factoring
17
Estonian Banking Sector: Credit quality
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
09-97
09-98
09-99
09-00
09-01
09-02
09-03
09-04
09-05
09-06
09-07
09-08
Overdue >60 days Provisions
18
Bank debt to GDP
• Note: Outstanding bank debt only. Leasing/factoring excluded; other forms of corporate financing excluded. Financial institutions excluded. Public sector under corporate.
Outstanding bank debt to GDP - Estonia
13% 13% 15%20% 20% 19% 18% 18% 18% 20%
24%
32%
43%47%
2% 2% 3% 6% 5% 7% 7% 8% 11%14%
19%
28%
38%45%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Corporate Private
Outstanding bank debt to GDP (2007)
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
Est
onia
Latv
ia
Lith
uani
a
Cze
ch R
epub
lic
Hun
gary
Slo
vaki
a
Slo
veni
a
Pol
and
Por
tuga
l
Spa
in
Irela
nd
Den
mar
k
Finl
and
Sw
eden
19
Swedbank Estonia
20
Highlights
• Long-term focus maintained on core strategic strengths - performance culture, credit skills, wide distribution and strong team
• Short-term focus on managing the business through the economic cycle with particular focus on productivity and asset quality
• Steps taken in the beginning of 2007 have slowed down credit growth and the trend is expected to continue throughout 2008. As a result, minor deterioration in market shares has been visible and is also expected going forward. However, no major change is expected.
• Employee productivity is being monitored closely and employee growth will be negative during 2008 given slowdown in volume growth. Operational efficiency program is gradually rolled out in all countries.
• Credit teams have been strengthened and work-out processes are being reviewed to a more pro-active stance. Asset quality indicators (credit losses, overdues) have risen according to expectations
21
Loans and Deposits
Deposits (group consolidated) *
90117
-115
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08
EU
Rm
Loans (incl leasing&factoring) change *
229 255
118
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1Q 0
8
2Q 0
8
3Q 0
8
EU
Rm
Loan (incl leasing&factoring) change 9m 2008
602
1,411
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
BB Est MarketE
UR
m
Deposits' change 9m 2008 (bank solo)
155
408
-50
200
450
700
BB Est Market
EU
Rm
Loan (inl leasing and factoring) to deposits
100%
150%
200%
250%
12/06 03/07 06/07 09/07 12/07 03/08 06/08 09/08Rest of the Market Swedbank Estonia
* According to Management reporting (consolidated). Trade Finance portfolio was taken into Estonian books from January (loan +111 m EUR; deposits +71 m EUR) This change was eliminated from 1Q 2008 change
22
Market SharesDec 06 Dec 07 Jun 08 Sept 08
Mortgage 49.2% 48.9% 48.7% 48.6%
Consumer finance 59.0% 55.0% 55.3% 55.3%
Corporate financing 46.0% 43.4% 43.1% 42.9%
Car leasing 56.1% 53.6% 52.7% 52.2%
Deposits 53.2% 53.0% 54.4% 52.4%
P2S 52.3% 52.4% 52.6% 53.0%
Funds 53.9% 57.6% 56.4% 54.9%
Domestic payments 65.4% 65.0% 65.0% 64.9%
POS 61.2% 62.3% 65.9% 68.0%
23
Quarterly trend - Estonia
Net profit
57 60 6247 52 49 52
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08
mln
EU
R
Cost - Income ratio
36.1% 37.6%34.4%
42.5%37.9% 39.9%
36.3%
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%
Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08
Return on Equity
41% 41% 39%28% 33% 32% 32%
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%
Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08
Credit losses
3 2
810
711
14
0
24
68
10
1214
16
Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08
mln
EU
R
24
Performance against mid-term financial targets
*Net loan losses = (changes in general and special provisions + net write offs) / credit portfolio at the beginning of the year
<0.35%0.55%0.76%Net loan losses
168.9%
38%
32%
-14%
YTD 2008
<42%
>20%
>20%
BBTarget
168.9%Loan to deposit ratio
36%Cost-income
32%ROE on actual equity
-15%EBT growth, YoY
Q3 2008Estonia
25
Financial highlights - Estonia
36.0%38.0%34.4%36.3%Cost-income
2.75%2.57%2.74%2.76%Net interest margin
-7%2,7292,528Employees (FTE)
12%4,3604,883Deposits (mln EUR)
14%
-15%
88%
5%
-1%
YoY %
32%
153
32
113
298
2008 YTD
7,2178,246Loans (mln EUR)
39%39%32%Return on Equity
-14%1786252Net profit (mln EUR)
13
107
298
2007 YTD
147%
6%
0%
YTD %
8
36
105
Q3 07
14Net Loan Losses (mln EUR)
38Expenses (mln EUR)
104Revenues (mln EUR)
Q3 08
26
Contribution to net income change ‘08 vs ‘07 YTD
Net Fees & Commissions
67.8
75.4
2.9 -0.5 -0.5-4.5
-5.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
07 YTD Card Loans Cash Securities Other Sept 08
EU
Rm
By main P&L items
153.2178.1
-19.2
-25.922.0
-4.4-1.73.2
-7.5
8.7
130140150160170180190200210220
NI 07 NII
Net Fees
Trading inc
Inc fr Ins
Other inc
Pers exp
Other Exp NLL
NI 08
EU
Rm
Trading Income
1.6
27.4
-0.3-9.4
-1.8
-11.6
-1.2-1.60
5
10
15
20
25
30
07 YTD MarketsEq
AssetMan Eq
Life InsEq
P&C InsEq
TreasuryFI
FX & clmargins
08 YTD
EU
Rm
27
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
Reveue 2007 Revenue 20080
20
40
60
80
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
Net interest income
Other income
Net fees and commissions
-10.0%
Revenue
-20
0
20
40
60
80
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
0
20
40
60
80
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
0
20
40
60
80
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
+12.1%
-94.3% YoY
+0.2% YoY
+53.8%
Trading
0
20
40
60
80
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
+120.1%
Income from insurance
120.1%7.215.95.4%0.35.35.6Income from insurance
0.2%297.9298.35.2%5.199.4104.5Total revenues
53.8%5.99.12.3%0.13.23.3Other income
-94.3%27.41.6-125.3%-5.04.0-1.0Trading income-10.0%75.467.8-0.9%-0.222.522.3Net fee income12.1%182.0204.015.5%10.064.374.3Net interest incomeYoY%
YTD 2007
YTD 2008QoQ%Delta2Q 20083Q 2008EUR in millions
28
Operating expenses
0
10
20
30
40
50
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
Total OpEx 2007 Total OpEx 2008
0
10
20
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
0
10
20
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
0
10
20
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
0
10
20
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
0
20
40
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q080
10
20
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
Personnel IT Admin
Marketing Other Group
+3.7% YoY +8.0% YoY +27.8% YoY
-9.4% YoY +24.0% YoY -34.1% YoY
+5.7% YoY
-115-261-1.7-0.50.0
-0.7-0.21.1
-0.4-1.0
Delta
-7.4%2 7292 528-9.4%2 7892 528Employees (FTE)-7.8%2 7202 506-4.4%2 6212 506Employees (FTE) excl pr
5.7%107.2113.4-4.3%39.637.9Operating expenses-34.1%10.16.7-16.2%3.02.5Group adjustments
5.8%2.32.5-1.4%0.80.8Depreciation31.1%6.17.9-22.7%3.22.5Other expenses-9.4%4.54.1-11.1%1.51.3Marketing27.8%16.621.215.7%7.08.1Administration8.0%21.022.7-5.6%8.07.5IT expenses3.7%46.548.3-6.0%16.215.2Personnel
YoY%YTD 2007YTD 2008QoQ%2Q 20083Q 2008EUR in millions
29
Portfolio disclosure
30
Private portfolio risk profile
0
750
1,500
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
EU
Rm
Q4 2007 Q2 2008 Q3 2008
SME/SSE risk profile
050
100150200250300350
A A- B B- C C- D D- E E- F
EU
Rm
Q4 2007 Q2 2008 Q3 2008
Large corporate risk profile
0
500
1,000
1 1- 2 2- 3 3- 4 4- 5 5- 6 6- 7
EU
Rm
Q4 2007 Q2 2008 Q3 2008
Estonia risk exposure (9 053 mEUR)*, Q3 2008SME/SSE
16%mortgage
79%
revolving3%
Large corporate
42%leasing
8%
Private43%
consumer10%
* Risk exposure: on-balance + off-balance portfolio
PD<1%Non-
performing
Non-performing
Credit quality of the loan bookRisk profile remains balanced
• Well diversified portfolio dominated by retail exposures
• Macro developments have triggered some downgrades in all segments:
– Real estate sector drives downgrades in large corporate segment (exposure > 0.8 mio EUR). Downgrades counterweighted by new lending to low risk clients
– SME/SSE has been the most sensitive to downturn. Acceptable risk profile (55% of portfolio with PD<1)
– Private portfolio has low risk profile (78% with PD<1%)
Non-performing
PD<1%
PD<1%
31
Credit qualitySwedbank Estonia overdue performance considerably better than the rest of the market
Overdue over 60 days / current portfolio
0%
1%
2%
3%
Dec
.05
Mar
.06
Jun.
06
Sep
.06
Dec
.06
Mar
.07
Jun.
07
Sep
.07
Dec
.07
Mar
.08
Apr
.08
May
.08
Jun.
08
Jul.0
8
Aug
.08
Sep
.08
Rest of the market Swedbank Estonia (Bank)
Provisions / current portfolio
0%
1%
2%
3%
Dec
.05
Mar
.06
Jun.
06
Sep
.06
Dec
.06
Mar
.07
Jun.
07
Sep
.07
Dec
.07
Mar
.08
Jun.
08
Sep
.08
Rest of the market Swedbank Estonia (Bank)
32
Corporate >60 day overdues
Corporates (rating cust)
1.89%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
12-06
03-07
06-07
09-07
12-07
03-08
06-08
09-08
SSE
2.38%
0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%
12-06
03-07
06-07
09-07
12-07
03-08
06-08
09-08
All Corporates
1.99%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
12-06
03-07
06-07
09-07
12-07
03-08
06-08
09-08
SME
2.08%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
12-06
03-07
06-07
09-07
12-07
03-08
06-08
09-08
33
Large corporate portfolio Credit losses relatively isolated in the real estate sector
Estonia Rating 6&7 exposures by industries
0 20 40 60 80 100
Commercial realestate
Production
Retailing
Transportation
Other EURm
Q4 2007
Q2 2008
Q3 2008
Large corporate risk profile
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1 1- 2 2- 3 3- 4 4- 5 5- 6 6- 7
Q4 2007
Q2 2008
Q3 2008
• Downgrades in large corporate (exposure > EUR 0.8m) portfolio has been counterbalanced with lending to customers with low risk
• The main part of 6&7 ratings comes from real estate sector (in particular residential real estate development & early development)
34
Lending by sectors
Portfolio, (9053 EURm) Sept 2008
Other22%
Individuals44%
Transport5%
Retail & Wholesale
5%
Real-estate mgmt15%
Construction3%
Industry6%
35
Real estate portfolioMost sensitive part of portfolio to current changes in macro environment. Developments according to expectation.
• The residential real estate development is the most sensitive sector in Baltic Banking portfolio.Sensitivity’ has started to appear in overdue and default figures of corporate portfolio.
• Around 60% from total Real Estate portfolio are cash flow generating properties with good tenant mix.
• Properties under development process (25% of RE portfolio) are currently affected the most by decreasing prices and liquidity in the market.
• Additional defaults in residential real estate development sector are anticipated in 2008, but no major surprises are expected due to previously implemented portfolio limitations and individual level monitoring. Restructuring capacity has been put in place.
Real Estate
23%
6%
25%
25%
15%
6%
Office
Production &WarehouseResidential
Retail
Land plots
Other
36
Other sectors under close watch
TransportationTrucking companies are facing problems due to increasing fuel prices and lagging freight rates. This global problem has started to reflect in Baltic Banking provisions (especially in SME segments) since the beginning of the year.
Retail & wholesaleWell performing sector with low levels of overdues, but potentially vulnerable to decreasing consumption
Wood processingRaw material price increase coupled with sales price downwards pressure have a negative impact on Baltic wood processing industry. Current portfolio quality is around average with only few problem cases observed. Additional problems may occur after export duties will be imposed on Russian round wood as there is dependence on imported round wood in Estonia.
* Overdues over 60 days / 12 months old portfolio
37
13%
8%
79%Private >60 day overdues
Mortgage
0.43%
0.88%
0.32%0.12%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
12-06
03-07
06-07
09-07
12-07
03-08
06-08
09-08
Consumer finance
1.01%1.60%
2.44%
1.81%
0.0%0.5%
1.0%1.5%2.0%
2.5%3.0%
12-06
03-07
06-07
09-07
12-07
03-08
06-08
09-08
Car leasing
0.63% 0.87%
1.35%
0.99%
0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.4%1.6%
12-06
03-07
06-07
09-07
12-07
03-08
06-08
09-08
Total private
0.28% 0.48%
1.04%
0.58%
0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%
12-06
03-07
06-07
09-07
12-07
03-08
06-08
09-08
mortgage
consumer
leasing
38
Mortgage delinquency rates*Percentage of outstanding amount of loans
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
SwedbankEstonia
USA
UKSpain
Australia
Canada
France
Finland
Portfolio quality better than in more stabledeveloped markets
*Mortgages >90 days in overdues / portfolioNote: Loans refer to mortgages for all countries except Finland and Italy where they include all loans to the households sector.For Italy, they refer to new bad debts during the year as a percentage of outstanding loans.
39
Mortgage portfolio
Mortgage risk profile
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Portfolio, Dec-07 Portfolio, Sept-08
0
50
100
150
200
250
3Q 0
5
4Q 0
5
1Q 0
62Q
06
3Q 0
6
4Q 0
6
1Q 0
7
2Q 0
7
3Q 0
7
4Q 0
71Q
08
2Q 0
8
3Q 0
8
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Growth Portfolio (right hand scale)
Portfolio
• Employers in difficulties – lower workload, loss of work, problems with salary (drop or delay in payment): mainly in companies connected to real estate, construction, transport, industrial goods, furniture and wood industry
• Change of employment
Main reasons for payment difficulty
40
Mortgage LTV (indexed market values)Portfolio average LTV below 60%
• Apartment / private house price drop in EE (- 22% from peak) has reduced positive effect from portfolio ‘maturing’
• Higher LTV portfolio issued for safe ‘home loan’ segment
• No difference observed in overdue / default levels for ‘high’ and ‘low’ LTV segments.
Estonia
64%68%63%
0
250
500
750
1000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
EURm
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
21yAverage maturity
59%LTV, total portfolio - August '08
*Should be treated as conservative evaluation (do not account for guarantees and other non-residential RE collaterals)
EE
Indexed LTV values and maturity for private apartments / houses*
Mortgage LTV and portfolio by year of origination
Mortgage portfolio - LTV
0%
10%
20%
0-10%
10-20
20-30
30-40
40-50
50-60
60-70
70-80
80-90
90-100
>100
Back book, Sept 08
41
Summary
• Growth of Estonian economy has stopped • Resulting fast rebalancing of the economy. • Still high dependence on foreign funding (but not directly from the
international markets)• Swedbank Estonia is showing relatively strong results, yoy income declined
by 14% caused by increasing loan losses and losses from equities trading.• Efficiency still high• The Bank’s main activity is managing credit portfolio and improving
efficiency• Credit portfolio quality is deteriorating. Residential real estate development
under growing stress. No spillover to other sectors.
Thank you!
43
Portfolio qualityCredit losses driven by real estate defaults
• Credit losses mostly driven by worsening macro situation • Real estate (in particular residential real estate development projects) is the main driver of credit losses • Trend is in line with updated credit loss forecast level
Estonia
0.55%31.6 Total
0.06%0.1 - Other
0.34%0.6 - Car leasing
1.79%3.0 - Consumer products
1.30%1.0 - Revolving
0.13%2.7 - Mortgage
0.27%7.5 Private individuals
0.67%6.4 SME/SSE companies (exposure <0.8m EUR)
0.32%2.1 - Other
-0.16%-0.4 - Transportation
0.45%0.8 - Retailing
0.43%1.0 - Production
1.76%14.3 - Commercial real estate
0.84%17.8 Rated companies (exposure >0.8m EUR)
RatioEURmNet loan losses, YTD 9m 2008
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Key financialsEstonia
29 bp57 bp50 bp58 bp76 bpNet loan losses
2.57%
38.0%
32.2%
83
153
153
113
298
YTD2008
2.75%
36.0%
40.0%
131
178
178
107
298
YTD2007
-7%
-37%
-15%
-15%
5%
-1%
12%
14%
Q3% ∆YoY
-261
2
3
3
-2
5
-115
118
Q3∆ QoQ
2,789
2.41%
39.9%
31.5%
26
49
49
40
99
4,998
8,128
Q22008
-36%
-14%
-14%
6%
0%
YTD% ∆ YoY
4428EVA on allocated equity
2,7292,528Employees (FTE)2
105104Revenues
3638Expenses
2.74%
34.4%
38.5%
62
62
4,360
7,217
Q32007
52EBT
8,246Loans
4,883Deposits
2.76%Net interest margin
36.3%Cost-income
32.2%Return on equity1
52Net income
Q32008
in millions of EUR
1 ROE is calculated based on Swedbank capital allocation: 8.4% for the Baltics2 without Group and IT
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Provisioning principles
• Credit portfolio losses are recognised through special and portfolio provisions• Main guidelines for estimating provisions:
• Key regulations for provision estimation are: provisioning principles and provisioning rates• Supplementary regulations are: LGD methodology and rating methodology
• Current provisions constitute 1.05% of credit portfolio (111 EURm portfolio provisions and 106 EURm special provisions)
• General and special provision rates are back-tested once per year. Historically provisions have always covered loan losses with a reserve
product specific LGDOverdue >90 daysFixed rate based on product typeRetail
fixed LGD (based on asset type for leasing)Overdue >90 daysFixed rate for all portfolioSME
Individual assessment based on Net present value (based on discounted value of revalued collateral and cash flow)
Rating 6 - 7default frequency (based on rating) * LGD (based on credit analyst estimate)Large corporate
Special provisioning for impaired assetsImpairment triggerPortfolio provisions
(for performing portfolio)Portfolio segment
LGD – loss given default
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Regular process of outstanding loan review • Portfolio quality improvement measures introduced already in 2007
– Increased risk margin in certain sectors (eg real-estate)– Portfolio limitation and close individual level monitoring for higher risk segments– Stricter product conditions (LTV, service ratio, previous credit history). Ongoing review
and adjustments Improved credit assessment process through better credit decision support applications (scoring/rating tools)
• Share of real estate sector decreasing, existing portfolio regularly scrutinized• Strengthened risk units
– Increased number of people dealing with problem loans– Strengthened workout team– Increasing cooperation with Swedabnk FR&R team– Improved the quality and increased frequency of portfolio quality reporting
• Targets for new origination quality• Regular loan review process includes
– Overall portfolio stress test once a year – Extensive portfolio analysis 2x per year, monthly/quarterly portfolio reviews + ad hoq
individual portfolio deep-dive analysis– Monthly "watch list” report– IRB portfolio scoring 1x per month
• On the individual loan basis:– Client rating review minimum 1x per year + review subject to material events– Rating classes 5 and higher are subject to more frequent assessment– Quarterly financials/covenants assessment– For SME/SSE and private portfolio weekly overdue report (with client names identified)
47
Credit quality management process• Proactive management of watch list clients
– Private clients - communication on step-by-step actions to take before falling into overdues. Development of standard remedial action to ensure serviceability of the credit (assistance in family budget planning, restructuring of payments, postponement of payments for temporary income loss; assistance in voluntary sale of assets)
– Corporate clients - proactive communication, frequent client meetings and positive attitude to find solutions
• Overdue management - concentrates on time horizon from occurrence of distress situation (either through late payment or on the bases of client information) to moving credit over to restructuring or workout phase. The primary focuses in overdue management is:
– Process design for fast and prudent management of overdues, clear process ownership– Constant re-evaluation of the tactics on their effectiveness and adequacy– Clearly set timing and channel of client contacts– Build capacity to work with distressed clients and adequate training of employees– Centralized decision making– Internal target setting and incentives to reach targets– Up to time reporting and follow up on taken activities
• Distressed debt restructuring– Defined tactics of restructuring. Solutions to ensure client serviceability of the debt
(based on industry of the client, collateral structure)– Extended capacity to work with distressed clients– Effective solutions for collected collaterals handling