RNS Rates – Five Year Forecast

RNS Rates – Five Year Forecast

PTO AC - Rates Working Group - Presentation

NEPOOL Reliability Committee / Transmission Committee – Summer Meeting

August 13-15, 2012

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Presentation Overview

2012 Forecast Comparison - Summary

2012 Forecast Comparison - Detail

2013 – 2016 Forecast - Disclaimer

2013 – 2016 Forecast - Summary

New England RNS Rate Forecast - Summary

Appendix – RNS Rate Forecast Components 2013 Forecast Components

2014 Forecast Components



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2012 Forecast Comparison - Summary

PTO AC initially estimated $1,994M of PTF Additions in service and

Construction Work In Progress (“CWIP”) for MPRP and NEEWS in 2012

This level of projected PTF Additions and CWIP resulted in: Forecasted RNS revenue requirement of $332M with an estimated RNS Rate Impact

of $15.72/kW-Yr. Based on actual 2010 Carrying Charge Factors & 12CP RNS Load (21,086 MW)

RNS Rate effective June 1, 2012 includes an estimated $1,302M of PTF

Additions in service and CWIP for MPRP and NEEWS in 2012

This level of projected PTF Additions and CWIP results in: Forecasted RNS revenue requirement of $202M with an estimated RNS Rate Impact

of $10.05/kW-Yr. Based on actual 2011 Carrying Charge Factors & 12CP RNS Load (20,178 MW)

CAPITAL ADDITIONS IN-SERVICE AND CWIP

Changes CARRYING CHARGE FACTORS

12-CP RNS LOADS

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2012 Forecast Comparison - Detail

Note: Figures may be off slightly due to rounding.

BHE 64 11 76 13 $0.12 CMP 798 134 364 54 ($3.65)

CTMEEC (a) - - 51 2 $0.08 Highgate 36 6 - - ($0.30)

HG&E 4 1 4 1 $0.01 NHT 8 2 6 1 ($0.02)

NGRID 348 55 237 37 ($0.77)NSTAR 204 28 88 12 ($0.73)

NU 383 67 366 61 ($0.14)UI 85 17 70 14 ($0.12)

VT Transco 64 11 40 7 ($0.15)Total 1,994 332 1,302 202

RNS Rate Incremental

Impact ($/kW-Yr)($5.67)

(a) Not a projected PTF addition; current PTF Facility Cost used to calculate additional revenue requirements to establish an initial full calendar year of cost data.

Variance Impact ($/kW-Yr)

2012 Forecast Provided at the 2011 RC/TC Summer Meeting Actual June 1, 2012 RNS Rate

Participating Transmission

Owner

$15.72 $10.05

2012 Projected PTF Additions

(including CWIP) ($ in Millions)

Forecasted RNS Revenue

Requirements ($ in Millions)


(including CWIP) ($ in Millions)

Forecasted RNS Revenue Requirements ($ in Millions)

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2013 - 2016 Forecast - Disclaimer

The 2013-2016 forecast herein provides an indicative RNS rate trend; it should be used for illustrative purposes only.

The estimated data utilized by the PTO AC to develop this forecast of RNS rates is based upon estimated capital additions provided to the Committee by all the New England Transmission Owners. Estimates for 2013 capital additions will be finalized during the normal course of update to the RNS rate effective June 1, 2013 and will reflect more current information.

The PTO AC acknowledges that this 2013-2016 forecast is based on a number of assumptions and variables including, among others, estimated project need, design, scope, labor & materials costs, inflation, site & permitting approvals, transmission in-service dates, estimated carrying charges & coincident peak network loads. It is therefore expected that such estimates and assumptions will change over time as more current data become available.

In addition, the 2013-2016 forecast reflects gross costs and does not include assumptions pertaining to savings (e.g., associated with congestion, unlocked capacity, etc.) or prior year true-up adjustments.

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2013 - 2016 Forecast - Summary

Forecast is preliminary and for illustrative purposes only. Estimates are consistent with the June 2012 RSP and do not reflect revised ISO forecasts. Figures may be off slightly due to rounding.

2013 2014 2015 2016

Estimated Additions In-Service and CWIP ($M)

1,172 1,184 1,330 1,246

Forecasted Revenue Requirement ($M)

197 182 212 212

Estimated RNS Rate Impact ($/kW-Yr)

10 9 10 11

Estimated RNS Rate Forecast ($/kW-Yr)

85 94 104 115

Estimated RNS Rate Forecast ($/kWh)Assumes a 60% Load Factor

0.016 0.018 0.020 0.022

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New England RNS Rate Forecast – Summary


2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

RSP-Proposed, Planned, UC 12.08 6.71 5.95 7.64

CWIP (4.36) (0.17) (0.44) (2.13)

RSP- Proposed, Planned, UC (net of CWIP) 7.72 6.53 5.51 5.51

Other PTF 1.48 0.49 0.92 0.35

RSP-Concept 0.00 0.41 0.03 1.86

Future RSP 0.53 1.57 4.02 2.77

Prior Year Rate 75.25 75.25 84.99 93.99 104.47

75.25 84.99

93.99

104.47

114.96

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00$/

kW

Yea

r

Total RNS Rate Effective June 1 75.25 84.99 93.99 104.47 114.96

$/kWh .014 .016 .018 .020 .022

Appendix-

RNS Rate Forecast Components

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BHE 0 0 0.00

CMP 225 30 1.50

CTMEEC 2 0 0.00

HG&E 0 0 0.00

NHT 4 1 0.04

NGRID 308 48 2.37

NSTAR 172 24 1.17

NU 393 81 4.03

UI 36 7 0.35

VT Transco 32 6 0.28

Total 1,172 197 9.74

New England East-West Solution (NEEWS), Western MA Study

Lower Southeastern MA

Participating Transmission Owner


(including CWIP) ($in Millions)


RNS Rate Impact ($/kW-Yr)

Key Drivers - Major Projects >$50M

Maine Power Reliability Project (MPRP)

New England East-West Solution (NEEWS)

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BHE 0 0 0.00

CMP 289 42 2.06

CTMEEC 0 0 0.00

HG&E 0 0 0.00

NHT 4 1 0.04

NGRID 220 34 1.69

NSTAR 200 27 1.36

NU 436 72 3.53

UI 11 2 0.11


Total 1,184 182 9.00



(including CWIP) ($in Millions)






New England East-West Solution (NEEWS), NH 10 Year Projects

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BHE 0 0 0.00

CMP 361 53 2.63

CTMEEC 0 0 0.00

HG&E 0 0 0.00

NHT 25 5 0.23

NGRID 270 42 2.07

NSTAR 162 22 1.10

NU 435 76 3.72

UI 52 10 0.51


Total 1,330 212 10.48








New England East-West Solution (NEEWS), Manchester Area Solutions,

Pittsfield Greenfield Area Solution

Pequonnock 115kV Fault Duty Mitigation Phase I, Shelton 115/13.8kV Substation

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BHE 0 0 0.00

CMP 177 27 1.32

CTMEEC 0 0 0.00

HG&E 0 0 0.00

NHT 0 0 0.00

NGRID 306 49 2.44

NSTAR 199 27 1.35

NU 181 39 1.92

UI 105 21 1.04


Total 1,246 212 10.49







Maine Yankee-Suroweic

Woburn to North Cambridge 345 kV

New England East-West Solution (NEEWS), Central CT Greater Hartford

Solution

Pequonnock 115kV Fault Duty Mitigation Phase II

West Rutland to Ascutney

RNS Rates – Five Year Forecast

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