RiskyProject for Oil and Gas Industry
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How to Perform Project Risk Management for Oil
and Gas Projects
Intaver Institute Inc.303, 6707, Elbow Drive S.W, Calgary, AB, CanadaTel: +1(403)692-2252Fax: +1(403)459-4533www.intaver.com
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Introduction
• Intaver Institute Timeline– 2002: Established
– 2004: V.1 RiskyProject
– 2009: v 3 Integrated Risk Register
– 2012: v 5
• RiskyProject– Full Project Risk Management
Lifecycle
– Integrated Risk Register
– Risk Matrix, Risk Planning
+– Quantitative Monte Carlo Cost and
Schedule Risk Analysis
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Clients
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Gorgon Natural Gas Project
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Project Cost Estimate in Billions A$
Date of cost estimate
A three-train liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility on Barrow Island (Australia) that will produce 15.6 million metric tons of LNG per year.
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Corporate Portfolio Management Process
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Project Cost and Schedule risks and
uncertainties
Geological and other Uncertainties affecting
production
Price Uncertainties
Other Risks and Uncertainties:
-Political risks-Uncertainties in Royalties regimes-….
Economic Analysis of the
Projects
Corporate Portfolio
Management
Strategic Decision
Quantitative cost and schedule risk analysis is an important component of portfolio management
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Risk Management Affects Project Profitability
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Full circle cost of gas$/Mcf
Quantitative risk analysis provides realistic risk adjusted and risk mitigated cost estimates
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Identifying and Managing Critical Risks is Key
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Risk
Quantitative risk analysis identifies and prioritizes critical risks
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Which risks are critical?
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Risk 3Risk 3
Risk 4Risk 4
Risk 1Risk 1
Risk 5Risk 5
Risk 2Risk 2
Risk 1Risk 1
Risk 2Risk 2
Risk 3Risk 3
Risk 4Risk 4
Risk 5Risk 5
Sche
dule
ris
k
Cost
Ris
k
Safe
ty R
isk
Lega
l Ris
k
Qua
lity
Risk
……
……
…..
Risk
Envi
rom
enta
l Ris
k
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Time Dependent C
osts
Cost
Ris
k
Time is Money: Cost and Schedule Risks
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• Schedule risk drives Costs due to time dependent resource costs
• 40% -70% cost risk is schedule driven
Sche
dule
ris
k
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Input 1: Project Schedule
Input 2: List of Risks (Risk Register)
Assign Risks to Project Tasks and Resources
Perform Analysis
Risk Events Approach
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Schedule
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Import project schedule from project management tool (Primavera, MS Project, etc..
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Costs
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Schedules can include cost data for quantitative risk analysis of fixed costs
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Resources
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Resources with rates are loaded with the project schedule to allow for risk analysis of time dependent costs
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Risk Register
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Project risk register is integrated to the project schedule and cost
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Risk Assignment
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Task R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6
Installing Microsoft Seismic monitoring
x x
Deliver frac fleet and install equipment
x
Deliver rig and equipment x
Well 1,2,3 (share common risks) x
Rig Mobilization x
Drilling x x x x
Installing Service Rig x
Completion (8 stages fracing) x x
Risks are assigned to project activities
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Risk Assignment Interface
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30 % chance that risk causes a delay and
increase in cost of drillingRisk Assigned to task
‘Drilling’
Risk probability and cost and schedule impact are assigned to activities
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Run Monte Carlo Simulation
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Monte Carlo simulation prioritizes risk based on impact on cost, schedule or other parameters
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Results of Analysis
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Monte Carlo simulation results for cost and schedule can be viewed as histograms or cumulative probability
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Risk Adjusted Project Schedule
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Schedule with risks
Schedule without risks
Arrows show risk assignments
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Project Cost
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Schedule with risks
Schedule without risks
Results of quantitative cost risk analysis are shown on the Cost view
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Risk Planning – Mitigation Plan
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Risk response plans can be plotted on a Risk Mitigation Waterfall chart
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Pre and Post Mitigation Risk Scores
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Pre-mitigation
Post-mitigation
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Risk Planning
Risk: Mechanical Problem with instrument
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Post Mitigation $16, 734, 906Pre-Mitigation Cost 17, 178, 397
Risk response plans can reduce the expected cost of the project
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RiskyProject Enterprise
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Enterprise Risk Database:Schedules,
Risks,Mitigation Plans
RiskyProject Professional
RiskyProject Lite
RiskyProject Web
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Future Reading
• Virine, L. and M. Trumper. 2007 Project Decisions: The Art and Science. VA: Management Concepts
• Virine, L. and M. Trumper. 2013. Project Think: Why Good Managers Make Poor Project Choices. England: Gower Publishing
• P. Leach. 2005. Late and Over Budget: Why Projects Always Seem to Take Longer and Cost More Than Planned. Projects & Profits, Vol. V Issue - XI, November 2005
• http://www.project decisions.org
• http://www.intaver.com/index-whitepapers.html
• http://www.risk-doctor.com/
• http://www.projectrisk.com
Contact Michael [email protected] Institute Inc.www.intaver.com
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