Risk studies using OpenQuake-engine
-
Upload
global-earthquake-model-foundation -
Category
Presentations & Public Speaking
-
view
148 -
download
0
description
Transcript of Risk studies using OpenQuake-engine
![Page 1: Risk studies using OpenQuake-engine](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062419/558c7205d8b42a65098b4613/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Risk studies using OpenQuake-engineCatalina Yepes Estrada, Vitor Silva, Helen Crowley
GEM Foundation, Pavia, Italy
![Page 2: Risk studies using OpenQuake-engine](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062419/558c7205d8b42a65098b4613/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine
an Open Source Software for Seismic Risk Assessment
![Page 3: Risk studies using OpenQuake-engine](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062419/558c7205d8b42a65098b4613/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine
Free, publically available and open-source Combines hazard and risk calculations
Scenario and probabilistic seismic hazard and risk
Allows calculations at many scales Runs on single laptop as well as on a cloud
Considers a wide spectrum of uncertainties
Different types of assets can be considered
![Page 4: Risk studies using OpenQuake-engine](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062419/558c7205d8b42a65098b4613/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine
Scenario risk
Scenario damage
Benefit-cost ratio
Probabilistic event-based risk
Classical PSHA based risk
![Page 5: Risk studies using OpenQuake-engine](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062419/558c7205d8b42a65098b4613/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine
Scenario risk
Scenario damage
Benefit-cost ratio
Probabilistic event-based risk
Classical PSHA based risk
![Page 6: Risk studies using OpenQuake-engine](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062419/558c7205d8b42a65098b4613/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Median ground motion field Exposure model Vulnerability functions
Scenario Risk Calculator
![Page 7: Risk studies using OpenQuake-engine](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062419/558c7205d8b42a65098b4613/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Mean loss mapLoss statistics
Scenario Risk Calculator
Ground motion fields Exposure model Vulnerability functions
![Page 8: Risk studies using OpenQuake-engine](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062419/558c7205d8b42a65098b4613/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Scenario Risk - Pisco Mw 8.0 (Peru, August 2007)
![Page 9: Risk studies using OpenQuake-engine](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062419/558c7205d8b42a65098b4613/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Scenario Risk - Pisco Mw 8.0 (Peru, August 2007)
![Page 10: Risk studies using OpenQuake-engine](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062419/558c7205d8b42a65098b4613/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine
Scenario risk
Scenario damage
Benefit-cost ratio
Probabilistic event-based risk
Classical PSHA based risk
![Page 11: Risk studies using OpenQuake-engine](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062419/558c7205d8b42a65098b4613/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Damage mapDamage Distribution
Scenario Damage Calculator
Ground motion fields Exposure model Fragility functions
![Page 12: Risk studies using OpenQuake-engine](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062419/558c7205d8b42a65098b4613/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Scenario Damage Calculator
Distribution of damage per building typology
![Page 13: Risk studies using OpenQuake-engine](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062419/558c7205d8b42a65098b4613/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Scenario Damage Calculator
Distribution of damage per building typology (percentage of total exposed buildings )
![Page 14: Risk studies using OpenQuake-engine](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062419/558c7205d8b42a65098b4613/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Scenario Damage Calculator
![Page 15: Risk studies using OpenQuake-engine](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062419/558c7205d8b42a65098b4613/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine
Scenario risk
Scenario damage
Benefit-cost ratio
Probabilistic event-based risk
Classical PSHA based risk
![Page 16: Risk studies using OpenQuake-engine](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062419/558c7205d8b42a65098b4613/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Sets of hazard curves Exposure model Vulnerability functions
Classical PSHA-based Calculator
Loss curves Loss maps
![Page 17: Risk studies using OpenQuake-engine](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062419/558c7205d8b42a65098b4613/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Classical PSHA based risk calculator
Loss exceedance curvefor each asset in the exposed portfolio
Economic loss map for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years
![Page 18: Risk studies using OpenQuake-engine](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062419/558c7205d8b42a65098b4613/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine
Scenario risk
Scenario damage
Benefit-cost ratio
Probabilistic event-based risk
Classical PSHA based risk
![Page 19: Risk studies using OpenQuake-engine](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062419/558c7205d8b42a65098b4613/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Sets ground motion fields Exposure model Vulnerability functions
Probabilistic Event-based Risk Calculator
Loss curves Loss maps
![Page 20: Risk studies using OpenQuake-engine](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062419/558c7205d8b42a65098b4613/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Probabilistic event-based risk calculator
Risk assessment for downtown Pavia (Italy)
• 1255 building
• Soil effects Vs30
• 100.000 stochastic event sets
• 1 Year investigation time
![Page 21: Risk studies using OpenQuake-engine](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062419/558c7205d8b42a65098b4613/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Probabilistic event-based risk calculator
Loss map 2%, 10% and 50% Probability of Exceedance in 50 years < 100€
140€ - 190€
300€ - 400€
> 600€
AAL 4.8 M€
0.6% total replacement cost
Aggregated loss curve
![Page 22: Risk studies using OpenQuake-engine](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062419/558c7205d8b42a65098b4613/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine
Scenario risk
Scenario damage
Benefit-cost ratio
Probabilistic event-based risk
Classical PSHA based risk
![Page 23: Risk studies using OpenQuake-engine](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062419/558c7205d8b42a65098b4613/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Benefit-cost ratio calculator
EAL-C EAL-R0
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
Ave
rage
exp
ecte
d an
nual
loss
(dol
-la
rs)
Loss exceedance curve
r inflation rate
t life expectancy
![Page 24: Risk studies using OpenQuake-engine](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062419/558c7205d8b42a65098b4613/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Original vulnerability model Retrofitted vulnerability model
Benefit-cost ratio calculator
![Page 25: Risk studies using OpenQuake-engine](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062419/558c7205d8b42a65098b4613/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Benefit-cost ratio calculator
It is a decision-support tool that helps to understand whether retrofitting interventions are justifiable from an economical perspective
EAL-C EAL-R0
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
Ave
rage
exp
ecte
d an
nual
loss
(dol
-la
rs)
Loss exceedance curve
r inflation rate
t life expectancy
![Page 26: Risk studies using OpenQuake-engine](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062419/558c7205d8b42a65098b4613/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Benefit/cost ratio, AAL(original) and AAL(retrofitted).
Benefit-cost ratio calculator
![Page 27: Risk studies using OpenQuake-engine](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062419/558c7205d8b42a65098b4613/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine
Scenario Risk Calculator
Scenario Damage Assessment CalculatorClassical PSHA-based Risk Calculator
Benefit-cost Ratio Calculator
Probabilistic Event-based Risk Calculator
Improved Performance
Extended data model
Insured lossesFixed bugs
QA tests
Beta distributions
![Page 28: Risk studies using OpenQuake-engine](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062419/558c7205d8b42a65098b4613/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine
Thank you!
![Page 29: Risk studies using OpenQuake-engine](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062419/558c7205d8b42a65098b4613/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under: creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Please attribute to the GEM Foundation with a link to - www.globalearthquakemodel.org