RISK PERCEPTIONWhy some risks are scarier than others

The Emotional Brain, Joseph LeDoux, Simon&Schuster, 1996

1. TRUST

• The communicator

• The organization that’s supposed to protect you

• The organization creating the risk

1. TRUST

(Less Trust/Impact)• Anything connected with industry• Communications from politicians• Inept government safety agencies

(More Trust/Impact)• Anything connected with consumer groups

• Communications from neutral experts (doctors, academics)

• Competent government safety agencies

Who do you trust more

re:genetically modified food?

The company that makes it…

…orenvironmentalists concerned about

it?

http://www.verolabs.com

2. HARM V. BENEFIT

Examples…

2. HARM V. BENEFIT

Examples…

Vaccinations

Medical X rays

Prescription drugs

3. CONTROL

Examples…

3. CONTROL

Examples…

(More Afraid)• Flying• Riding as a passenger in the front seat of a motor vehicle• A process in which you can NOT participate

(Less Afraid)• Riding a bicycle • Driving a motor vehicle• A process in which you CAN participate

4. CHOICE(is the risk voluntary or imposed)

4. CHOICE(is the risk voluntary or imposed)

(More Afraid)• Food with a harmful ingredient NOT listed on

the label• The government chooses your town for a

nuclear waste repository (Less Afraid)

• Food with a harmful ingredient that IS listed on the label

• INVITING the government to locate the nuclear waste repository in your town

5. NATURAL V. HUMAN-MADE

5. NATURAL V. HUMAN-MADE

(More Afraid)• Industrial chemicals• Technologies (GM food, nuclear

power)

(Less Afraid)• Organic food• Herbal remedies

6. PAIN AND SUFFERING

6. PAIN AND SUFFERING

(More Afraid)• Anything associated with radiation (cancer)• Pesticides (cancer)• Plane Crash

(Less Afraid)• Heart disease (leading cause of death in the U.S.)• Flu• Food poisoning

7. CATASTROPHIC or CHRONIC

7. CATASTROPHIC or CHRONIC

(More Afraid)• Terrorism• Plane crashes• Oil spills

(Less Afraid)• Heart disease• Stroke• Ocean ‘dead zones’, acidification

8. UNCERTAINTY(When we don’t have all the answers, or

we have them but don’t understand them.)

1. CAN’T DETECT IT (radiation, chemicals)

2. CAN’T UNDERSTAND IT (radiation, GM foods)

3. SCIENCE DOESN’T HAVE THE ANSWERS (endocrine disruptors, nanotechnology)

8. UNCERTAINTY(When we don’t have all the answers, or

we have them but don’t understand them.)

8. UNCERTAINTY(When we don’t have all the answers, or

we have them but don’t understand them.)

(More Afraid)• New technologies• Terrorism• Radiation, chemicals, complex technologies/issues• Conflicting scientific studies (hormone repl. therapy)

(Less Afraid – we know more now.)• Artificial sweeteners, microwave ovens, electrical &

magnetic fields, silicone breast implants

9. ME OR THEM

9. ME OR THEM

• “It’s Only 1 in a Million!”

• Terrorism to Americans in “The HoMEland” after September 11, 2001

• Radiation from power lines when such a line is installed near your home

• HIV/AIDS

10. FAMILIAR V. NEW

10. FAMILIAR V. NEW

(More Afraid)• West Nile Virus in year one.• “Swine” flu, “Bird” flu

(Less Afraid)• West Nile Virus in year two, three….• “Regular” influenza

11. CHILDREN

11. CHILDREN

• Suspect chemicals in children’s Suspect chemicals in children’s productsproducts

• AbductionAbduction• Pollution problems in schoolsPollution problems in schools

(PCB window caulk)(PCB window caulk)

12. PERSONIFICATION

• Fear of child abduction rises when there is a specific case in the news

• Fear of war rises after we see pictures of the dead and injured

• Concern about medical errors increases when we learn of a victim of a doctor’s mistake

Iraq & Afghanistan Troops Killed

13. FAIRNESS

(More Afraid)• Risks to the sick, the elderly, the handicapped,

the poor• If you get none of the benefits, and all the risk

(Less Afraid)• Risks to workers, the rich, the powerful• If you enjoy some of the benefits along with the

risk

The Perception Gap

…… can lead to real harms

Individual choices

Stress

Social misallocation of resources

The Perception GapThe Perception Gap

Chronic Stress Causes…

• CARDIOVASCULAR PROBLEMS

• WEAKENED IMMUNE SYSTEM

• ELEVATED RISK OF ADULT-ONSET DIABETES

• ELEVATED RISK OF CLINICAL DEPRESSION

• IMPAIRED GROWTH, MEMORY, FERTILITY

The Perception GapThe Perception Gap

…… can lead to real harms

Individual choices

Stress

Social misallocation of

resources

Causes of Death/Research SpendingCauses of Death/Research Spending U.S. - 2005 U.S. - 2005 (source: CDC)(source: CDC)

Making Healthier Choices

• Keep an open mind.• Give yourself time. • Get more information. Be a smarter news

consumer.• Neutral sources. Question source bias.• Think about trade-offs, bigger picture• Avoid confirmation bias